patrick.net

TL;DR: The Pollsters are shifting from trying to boost Kam-ul-ah to saving their reputation.

AmericanKulak says

saving their reputation.

You mean so that they are vaguely better regarded than the Fact Cheka? Polls are managed bullshit. Just think about how you would go about performing one. If somebody polled me in Santa Cruz, I would probably say I was voting for KamalaToe just to keep the death squads from my door.

Many people will just claim whatever they think might please the pollsters or keep them out of trouble, because there is no such thing as a pollster without an agenda, just like there is not such thing as a stock broker without an agenda.

The amount of information required to determine if the polling population is either sincere or representative or objectively selected is so burdensome and the results so inductive, it's clear that nobody will do that, certainly not in a political climate, and will fudge or articulate a result that they hope sways the public or pleases a deep pocket boss. It's advertising by another name. Madison avenue.

The gambling sites don't have a crystal ball, either, they are about massaging the suckers and playing the spread.

AmericanKulak says

TL;DR: The Pollsters are shifting from trying to boost Kam-ul-ah to saving their reputation.

The Nate Silver Bait n' Switch