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49
EBGuy
2025 Jan 21, 3:26pm
Ess Eff Bay Area seasonal decline started in June (which is early, and not a good sign...)
50
WookieMan
2025 Jan 21, 4:18pm
WookieMan
2025 Jan 21, 4:18pm
EBGuy says
CA is gonna have a rough go of it, especially after the fires. Those not effected probably won't notice much. Just the slow outflow of 1-2 families a day. 20-30% of properties from the fires they're out. Gone. Straw that broke the camels back.
Ess Eff Bay Area seasonal decline started in June (which is early, and not a good sign...)
CA is gonna have a rough go of it, especially after the fires. Those not effected probably won't notice much. Just the slow outflow of 1-2 families a day. 20-30% of properties from the fires they're out. Gone. Straw that broke the camels back.
52
B.A.C.A.H.
2025 Jan 21, 5:54pm
B.A.C.A.H.
2025 Jan 21, 5:54pm
WookieMan says
We'll see. We could use a stampede out of here. It's too crowded which makes it too expensive.
But what you say, they said that after:
the Loma Prieta Quake,
Oakland Hills Fire,
Northridge Quake,
Dot Com Collapse.
We'll see.
Gone. Straw that broke the camels back.
We'll see. We could use a stampede out of here. It's too crowded which makes it too expensive.
But what you say, they said that after:
the Loma Prieta Quake,
Oakland Hills Fire,
Northridge Quake,
Dot Com Collapse.
We'll see.
53
AD
2025 Jan 21, 6:23pm
AD
2025 Jan 21, 6:23pm
WookieMan says
how many homes lost in the LA fires ? about 30K ? figure all 30K households (plus another 20K of scaredy cats who think its not worthwhile to live in California anymore) decide to leave the state for Arizona, Nevada, Utah, Oregon, Colorado and New Mexico. Still won't have that much of a big impact as far as migration out of California.
CA is gonna have a rough go of it, especially after the fires. Those not effected probably won't notice much. Just the slow outflow of 1-2 families a day. 20-30% of properties from the fires they're out. Gone. Straw that broke the camels back.
how many homes lost in the LA fires ? about 30K ? figure all 30K households (plus another 20K of scaredy cats who think its not worthwhile to live in California anymore) decide to leave the state for Arizona, Nevada, Utah, Oregon, Colorado and New Mexico. Still won't have that much of a big impact as far as migration out of California.
54
GNL
2025 Jan 21, 6:51pm
GNL
2025 Jan 21, 6:51pm
AD says
How about L.A.? Will it have a big impact on L.A.? Even L.A. itself very little? But Pacific Palisades? Oh yeah.
WookieMan says
CA is gonna have a rough go of it, especially after the fires. Those not effected probably won't notice much. Just the slow outflow of 1-2 families a day. 20-30% of properties from the fires they're out. Gone. Straw that broke the camels back.
how many homes lost in the LA fires ? about 30K ? figure all 30K households (plus another 20K of scaredy cats who think its not worthwhile to live in California anymore) decide to leave the state for Arizona, Nevada, Utah, Oregon, Colorado and New Mexico. Still won't have that much of a big impact as far as migration out of California.
How about L.A.? Will it have a big impact on L.A.? Even L.A. itself very little? But Pacific Palisades? Oh yeah.
55
WookieMan
2025 Jan 21, 6:57pm
WookieMan
2025 Jan 21, 6:57pm
B.A.C.A.H. says
Not wrong but I think people will move on is all. Everything will get rebuilt, but it's going to take years. Getting 10-20K building permits and having the labor is impossible in quick fashion. It's taken me two years to get a hole in the ground and that's with 6 other houses being built, not 20k.
AD says
Not about population. It's a massive hit to the tax base. These aren't poor people. If they're smart taxes will be appealed and property tax revenues dry up. Or they move and income tax for high earners goes away. Try not having a home for 2-3 years. It will happen again. A lot are just going to move.
We'll see. We could use a stampede out of here. It's too crowded which makes it too expensive.
But what you say, they said that after:
the Loma Prieta Quake,
Oakland Hills Fire,
Northridge Quake,
Dot Com Collapse.
We'll see.
Not wrong but I think people will move on is all. Everything will get rebuilt, but it's going to take years. Getting 10-20K building permits and having the labor is impossible in quick fashion. It's taken me two years to get a hole in the ground and that's with 6 other houses being built, not 20k.
AD says
how many homes lost in the LA fires ? about 30K ? figure all 30K households (plus another 20K of scaredy cats who think its not worthwhile to live in California anymore) decide to leave the state for Arizona, Nevada, Utah, Oregon, Colorado and New Mexico. Still won't have that much of a big impact as far as migration out of California.
Not about population. It's a massive hit to the tax base. These aren't poor people. If they're smart taxes will be appealed and property tax revenues dry up. Or they move and income tax for high earners goes away. Try not having a home for 2-3 years. It will happen again. A lot are just going to move.
56
AmericanKulak
2025 Jan 21, 8:03pm
AmericanKulak
2025 Jan 21, 8:03pm
Entire neighborhoods in central NC are Cognizant H1B scammers and their families.
Guess what happens to housing prices there if entire neighborhoods are deported?
They go down. A lot.
https://x.com/Oilfield_Rando/status/1881848216876114067
Guess what happens to housing prices there if entire neighborhoods are deported?
They go down. A lot.
https://x.com/Oilfield_Rando/status/1881848216876114067
57
AmericanKulak
2025 Jan 21, 8:10pm
AmericanKulak
2025 Jan 21, 8:10pm
One major H1B reform would be to require businesses to hire H1Bs direct, banning all agencies or consulting companies.
IE IBM or Microsoft has to hire Raj directly from Mumbai and CANNOT use a service.
IE IBM or Microsoft has to hire Raj directly from Mumbai and CANNOT use a service.
58
AmericanKulak
2025 Jan 21, 8:11pm
AmericanKulak
2025 Jan 21, 8:11pm
One thing they do in Scandinavia is send resumes from local unemployment agencies to businesses requesting Tech visas.
Companies must publish requirements in advance, review ALL resumes from the unemployment agency, and resume-by-resume reject them. They get "Two Free" rejections then must explain in 1000 word essays why they didn't hire them DESPITE them meeting the requirements, paying a fee on top of that.
Companies must publish requirements in advance, review ALL resumes from the unemployment agency, and resume-by-resume reject them. They get "Two Free" rejections then must explain in 1000 word essays why they didn't hire them DESPITE them meeting the requirements, paying a fee on top of that.
59
WookieMan
2025 Jan 22, 9:03am
WookieMan
2025 Jan 22, 9:03am
AmericanKulak says
H1B's likely didn't own. Neither do illegals. Rental prices will go down for sure. Owners that need to sell the rental might take a beating. But I don't see deportation being a big deal on housing overall. Most of the rentals are corporate owned. They'd take a hit on stock price, but can always borrow or increase shares.
Loans are performing. Until they don't, there can't be a crash. It would take 15-20% unemployment, which again is loans not being paid. CA and the LA area will see some difficult times along with NC. But there's nothing there as far as a crash. The CA houses will bring down the median because of prices making things look bad. It's not bad.
Guess what happens to housing prices there if entire neighborhoods are deported?
They go down. A lot.
H1B's likely didn't own. Neither do illegals. Rental prices will go down for sure. Owners that need to sell the rental might take a beating. But I don't see deportation being a big deal on housing overall. Most of the rentals are corporate owned. They'd take a hit on stock price, but can always borrow or increase shares.
Loans are performing. Until they don't, there can't be a crash. It would take 15-20% unemployment, which again is loans not being paid. CA and the LA area will see some difficult times along with NC. But there's nothing there as far as a crash. The CA houses will bring down the median because of prices making things look bad. It's not bad.
60
clambo
2025 Jan 22, 9:35am
I have to post an addendum to above.
I forgot that I have met a woman who had her own money.
She is my former neighbor's daughter; she works at sales of something related to health care.
"The exception proves the rule" may apply.
I forgot that I have met a woman who had her own money.
She is my former neighbor's daughter; she works at sales of something related to health care.
"The exception proves the rule" may apply.
62
mell
2025 Jan 22, 10:27pm
Maga_Chaos_Monkey says
Great movie!
clambo says
"The exception proves the rule" may apply.
Maga_Chaos_Monkey says
Great movie!
63
AmericanKulak
2025 Jan 23, 12:33am
AmericanKulak
2025 Jan 23, 12:33am
WookieMan says
More than you think. And both impact the price of housing, as they increase the costs of Rent, and therefore the investment value of the property.
Rentseekers then fight couples and families for housing.
You think tenement owners in Chicago or Brooklyn in the 1920s weren't paying big money to own them because they were cash cows, which in turn impacted all housing in the city?
They also built slapdash SFH housing as far out as possible and commanded a rack rent.
H1B's likely didn't own. Neither do illegals.
More than you think. And both impact the price of housing, as they increase the costs of Rent, and therefore the investment value of the property.
Rentseekers then fight couples and families for housing.
You think tenement owners in Chicago or Brooklyn in the 1920s weren't paying big money to own them because they were cash cows, which in turn impacted all housing in the city?
They also built slapdash SFH housing as far out as possible and commanded a rack rent.
64
WookieMan
2025 Jan 23, 3:00am
WookieMan
2025 Jan 23, 3:00am
AmericanKulak says
So a slumlord loses his property in an Indian neighborhood that likely wouldn't effect anyone here? A Mexican neighborhood. All these people self segregate.
The majority of people are still whites. They don't want to live in those neighborhoods unless desperate. So either way those housing values don't much matter. Prices drop 20% and some investor/company swoops in and buys it. The floor of a drop is high right now. Basically it can't go down that much.
People keep wanting it, but nowhere am I seeing it. CA, TN and FL have some weak spots, but nationally if you take them out I don't see any issues. All the Boomers from New York that can move already did. There are boom cities/suburbs that will take a hit if they overbuilt. The midwest and plains states are pretty damn good though.
More than you think. And both impact the price of housing, as they increase the costs of Rent, and therefore the investment value of the property.
So a slumlord loses his property in an Indian neighborhood that likely wouldn't effect anyone here? A Mexican neighborhood. All these people self segregate.
The majority of people are still whites. They don't want to live in those neighborhoods unless desperate. So either way those housing values don't much matter. Prices drop 20% and some investor/company swoops in and buys it. The floor of a drop is high right now. Basically it can't go down that much.
People keep wanting it, but nowhere am I seeing it. CA, TN and FL have some weak spots, but nationally if you take them out I don't see any issues. All the Boomers from New York that can move already did. There are boom cities/suburbs that will take a hit if they overbuilt. The midwest and plains states are pretty damn good though.
65
KgK one
2025 Jan 23, 6:49pm
Housing is way over priced. Makes rents overpriced.
Way to lower prices without crshing economy like 2008 would be great
Way to lower prices without crshing economy like 2008 would be great
66
AmericanKulak
2025 Jan 23, 6:55pm
AmericanKulak
2025 Jan 23, 6:55pm
Demographics can't be stopped.
It was already going to happen, now the long delayed hypermigration slowdown accelerates it.
There is no sign Millie chicks with one or none are going to suddenly pop out 1-2 more kids.
Housing "Economists" all work for NAR, Builders, Developers, etc. and will never see impending doom, even though we're already at early 90s levels of transactions despite 30% more population. The only announce permanent plateaus and a recovery in the next year.
It was already going to happen, now the long delayed hypermigration slowdown accelerates it.
There is no sign Millie chicks with one or none are going to suddenly pop out 1-2 more kids.
Housing "Economists" all work for NAR, Builders, Developers, etc. and will never see impending doom, even though we're already at early 90s levels of transactions despite 30% more population. The only announce permanent plateaus and a recovery in the next year.
67
WookieMan
2025 Jan 24, 4:54am
WookieMan
2025 Jan 24, 4:54am
AmericanKulak says
The only building is rentals by corps. The new single family housing in my area is 0.8% over 20 years of existing housing stock. All of that in the last 2-3 years. We're becoming a nation of renters owned by the corporations. We'll give you a piss filled pool, shit common amenities, hear your upstairs neighbor have sex type experience for $3k/mo for a 2/2.
This is why I live in the country. Why I'm building. I don't share a wall now, but I'll never live in a condo or apartment. Maybe in the Caribbean to keep it cheaper, but that's it as I wouldn't live there full time.
Housing "Economists" all work for NAR, Builders, Developers, etc. and will never see impending doom, even though we're already at early 90s levels of transactions despite 30% more population. The only announce permanent plateaus and a recovery in the next year.
The only building is rentals by corps. The new single family housing in my area is 0.8% over 20 years of existing housing stock. All of that in the last 2-3 years. We're becoming a nation of renters owned by the corporations. We'll give you a piss filled pool, shit common amenities, hear your upstairs neighbor have sex type experience for $3k/mo for a 2/2.
This is why I live in the country. Why I'm building. I don't share a wall now, but I'll never live in a condo or apartment. Maybe in the Caribbean to keep it cheaper, but that's it as I wouldn't live there full time.
69
WookieMan
2025 Jan 24, 10:26am
WookieMan
2025 Jan 24, 10:26am
DOGEWontAmountToShit says
Not disputing the graph at all. But feeling and being able to buy are two different things. Corporations bought up much of the homes after '08 and no one built. I witnessed this personally. What the hell did people think would happen? Prices went up and people couldn't or want to buy a home. A few won the lottery and got a cheap resale home.
If no one is moving and prices went up, only the high earners are going to buy if/when they have to. Then no building. Housing is going to be high for a long time, especially with most locked into 2-4% interest rates.
Not disputing the graph at all. But feeling and being able to buy are two different things. Corporations bought up much of the homes after '08 and no one built. I witnessed this personally. What the hell did people think would happen? Prices went up and people couldn't or want to buy a home. A few won the lottery and got a cheap resale home.
If no one is moving and prices went up, only the high earners are going to buy if/when they have to. Then no building. Housing is going to be high for a long time, especially with most locked into 2-4% interest rates.
71
B.A.C.A.H.
2025 Jan 25, 11:16am
B.A.C.A.H.
2025 Jan 25, 11:16am
WookieMan says
You claim to have Extreme Knowledge about a place you've never lived, and never worked in the trenches, nor experienced first hand the facts on the ground.
The Bay Area, which has a GDP and population bigger than most states, is chocked full of H1 homeowners. I've known many of them.
H1B's likely didn't own.
You claim to have Extreme Knowledge about a place you've never lived, and never worked in the trenches, nor experienced first hand the facts on the ground.
The Bay Area, which has a GDP and population bigger than most states, is chocked full of H1 homeowners. I've known many of them.
72
RWSGFY
2025 Jan 25, 11:36am
RWSGFY
2025 Jan 25, 11:36am
B.A.C.A.H. says
Second that.
WookieMan says
H1B's likely didn't own.
You claim to have Extreme Knowledge about a place you've never lived, and never worked in the trenches, nor experienced first hand the facts on the ground.
The Bay Area, which has a GDP and population bigger than most states, is chocked full of H1 homeowners. I've known many of them.
Second that.
73
OkDOGEisAmountingToSomething
2025 Jan 25, 12:08pm
OkDOGEisAmountingToSomething
2025 Jan 25, 12:08pm
B.A.C.A.H. says
He does that all the time.
You claim to have Extreme Knowledge about a place you've never lived, and never worked in the trenches, nor experienced first hand the facts on the ground.
He does that all the time.
74
AD
2025 Jan 25, 1:43pm
AD
2025 Jan 25, 1:43pm
DOGEWontAmountToShit says
The 10 Yr Treasury is around 4.62% and it usually trends about 1.25% above CPI and/or PCE. It should be no more than 3.75% now.
And the 30 year mortgage now is around 7% and should be no more than 1.25% above the 10 Year Treasury rate.
Bond market and mortgage bond market are acting "rogue" ?
.
WookieMan says
feeling and being able to buy are two different things.
The 10 Yr Treasury is around 4.62% and it usually trends about 1.25% above CPI and/or PCE. It should be no more than 3.75% now.
And the 30 year mortgage now is around 7% and should be no more than 1.25% above the 10 Year Treasury rate.
Bond market and mortgage bond market are acting "rogue" ?
.
75
AD
2025 Jan 25, 1:47pm
AD
2025 Jan 25, 1:47pm
.
Where we live in the best place on Earth (Florida panhandle and within 2 miles of the white sand beach (albeit we got 7 inches of snow) and emerald water,
a 3 bedroom / 2.5 bath / 2 car garage townhome sold at peak (early 2022 when the 30 yr mortgage rate was 3%) for $330,000.
Now the sales price is $260,000 with the 30 year mortgage rate around 7%. Local household income has gone up about 25% since early 2022 to present day.
.
Where we live in the best place on Earth (Florida panhandle and within 2 miles of the white sand beach (albeit we got 7 inches of snow) and emerald water,
a 3 bedroom / 2.5 bath / 2 car garage townhome sold at peak (early 2022 when the 30 yr mortgage rate was 3%) for $330,000.
Now the sales price is $260,000 with the 30 year mortgage rate around 7%. Local household income has gone up about 25% since early 2022 to present day.
.
76
WookieMan
2025 Jan 25, 2:56pm
WookieMan
2025 Jan 25, 2:56pm
B.A.C.A.H. says
California is not the rest of the country. It's the polar opposite. Even from New York. You guys don't get it. Live in your bubble and think that's how the rest of us live. Enjoy the suffering you created.
You claim to have Extreme Knowledge about a place you've never lived, and never worked in the trenches, nor experienced first hand the facts on the ground.
California is not the rest of the country. It's the polar opposite. Even from New York. You guys don't get it. Live in your bubble and think that's how the rest of us live. Enjoy the suffering you created.
77
ForcedTQ
2025 Jan 25, 3:14pm
AD says
It seems like people are demanding stock equity over bonds and that’s pressing the bond rate up to get them sold. Stock market returns have been very high last few years, bonds have got to keep up to be bought.
DOGEWontAmountToShit says
WookieMan says
feeling and being able to buy are two different things.
The 10 Yr Treasury is around 4.62% and it usually trends about 1.25% above CPI and/or PCE. It should be no more than 3.75% now.
And the 30 year mortgage now is around 7% and should be no more than 1.25% above the 10 Year Treasury rate.
Bond market and mortgage bond market are acting "rogue" ?
.
It seems like people are demanding stock equity over bonds and that’s pressing the bond rate up to get them sold. Stock market returns have been very high last few years, bonds have got to keep up to be bought.
78
HeadSet
2025 Jan 25, 6:12pm
HeadSet
2025 Jan 25, 6:12pm
ForcedTQ says
Yep, plus Credit Unions currently offer 1-year CDs for 4% to 4.5%.
It seems like people are demanding stock equity over bonds and that’s pressing the bond rate up to get them sold.
Yep, plus Credit Unions currently offer 1-year CDs for 4% to 4.5%.
79
AD
2025 Jan 25, 6:26pm
AD
2025 Jan 25, 6:26pm
HeadSet says
yep 10 Year Treasury issuer competing also with Schwab which offers 4.4% for 3 month CD
.
ForcedTQ says
It seems like people are demanding stock equity over bonds and that’s pressing the bond rate up to get them sold.
Yep, plus Credit Unions currently offer 1-year CDs for 4% to 4.5%.
yep 10 Year Treasury issuer competing also with Schwab which offers 4.4% for 3 month CD
.
80
Tenpoundbass
2025 Jan 25, 6:31pm
Tenpoundbass
2025 Jan 25, 6:31pm
Trump seems to be hinting at Federal Permitting reform. That will open lands for the 10 new cities I have been talking about needs to happen.
81
OkDOGEisAmountingToSomething
2025 Jan 25, 6:50pm
OkDOGEisAmountingToSomething
2025 Jan 25, 6:50pm
Tenpoundbass says
Permitting reform involves Congress. And that will require beating the filibuster.
Trump seems to be hinting at Federal Permitting reform. That will open lands for the 10 new cities I have been talking about needs to happen.
Permitting reform involves Congress. And that will require beating the filibuster.
82
AmericanKulak
2025 Jan 26, 4:41am
AmericanKulak
2025 Jan 26, 4:41am
If this is what fear of La Migra does to Kern County stores, imagine the impact on housing costs and infrastructure generally.
I suspect the numbers are vast, vastly higher than the estimates.
I suspect the numbers are vast, vastly higher than the estimates.
83
AmericanKulak
2025 Jan 26, 4:43am
AmericanKulak
2025 Jan 26, 4:43am
HeadSet says
Headset, this is pretty rare.
clambo says
I have never met a rich woman who actually had her own money.
I had a neighbor lady who was a surgeon and quite well off. She lived with the father of her kids but refused to marry him.
Another neighbor was a beautiful rich Italian widow who was a great cook (best lasagna ever). She also had a long term live in boyfriend she did not marry, despite both being evangelical Christians.
Headset, this is pretty rare.
84
HeadSet
2025 Jan 26, 8:02am
HeadSet
2025 Jan 26, 8:02am
AmericanKulak says
I agree, and the rich Italian widow inherited that money from her deceased husband.
My point was more that women with money takes steps to not lose it to a man.
Headset, this is pretty rare.
I agree, and the rich Italian widow inherited that money from her deceased husband.
My point was more that women with money takes steps to not lose it to a man.
85
FuckTheMainstreamMedia
2025 Jan 26, 12:28pm
FuckTheMainstreamMedia
2025 Jan 26, 12:28pm
If Trump keeps up with the deportations I absolutely guarantee the housing market drops in So Cal, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Tucson, Albuquerque, Denver, and several Texas cities.
86
HeadSet
2025 Jan 26, 12:50pm
HeadSet
2025 Jan 26, 12:50pm
FuckTheMainstreamMedia says
And Northern VA.
If Trump keeps up with the deportations I absolutely guarantee the housing market drops in So Cal, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Tucson, Albuquerque, Denver, and several Texas cities.
And Northern VA.
87
AD
2025 Jan 26, 4:58pm
AD
2025 Jan 26, 4:58pm
HeadSet says
yeah like the barrios known as Manassas Park
.
FuckTheMainstreamMedia says
If Trump keeps up with the deportations I absolutely guarantee the housing market drops in So Cal, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Tucson, Albuquerque, Denver, and several Texas cities.
And Northern VA.
yeah like the barrios known as Manassas Park
.
88
OkDOGEisAmountingToSomething
2025 Jan 31, 2:54pm
OkDOGEisAmountingToSomething
2025 Jan 31, 2:54pm
B.A.C.A.H. says
#2 on Best Comments, btw.
WookieMan says
H1B's likely didn't own.
You claim to have Extreme Knowledge about a place you've never lived, and never worked in the trenches, nor experienced first hand the facts on the ground.
The Bay Area, which has a GDP and population bigger than most states, is chocked full of H1 homeowners. I've known many of them.
#2 on Best Comments, btw.
« First « Previous Comments 49 - 88 of 88 Search these comments
So the only way to decrease real prices is to decrease demand, and the only way to do that is to kick out all illegal immigrants and anchor babies. Will Trump do this? Almost certainly not. Even with control over all three branches of the government, the Republicans are not going to get rid of all the illegals who are driving up housing prices and social welfare costs. I wish that I was wrong about this, but I'm not.
The United States population reached 200 million on November 20, 1967. If there was no net migration, then the U.S. population have stabilized to about 220 million. Instead, the population is 335 million. This is why housing is so expensive. This is why rent is so damn high. This is why the younger generations cannot afford to have children. This is why the only way to keep the population from falling is to import massive numbers of unskilled, uneducated, and often criminal immigrants. Both parties are responsible for this: democrats for importing voters and republicans for importing farm laborers. Both parties want cheap labor.
When you import massive numbers of low-iq, low-skill workers, your per capital GDP declines relative to where it would have been otherwise. Yes, technological advancements mask this because technology increases GDP faster than low-skill immigration decreases it, but most of those gains don't get seen by the middle class.
Since both parties, and their corporate overlords, are benefiting from the current system, immigration will continue and housing prices will also continue to rise. I suppose I shouldn't care since I own and have a 2.25% mortgage that is being eaten away by inflation, but anyone young enough that they having bought already is fucked.