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2
DOGEWontAmountToShit
2025 Jan 2, 9:05pm
DOGEWontAmountToShit
2025 Jan 2, 9:05pm
anon5525 says
That's funny. Because there is plenty of housing being built in businesses that have been torn down.
There is no space in any urban area to build more housing. None.
That's funny. Because there is plenty of housing being built in businesses that have been torn down.
3
DOGEWontAmountToShit
2025 Jan 2, 9:06pm
DOGEWontAmountToShit
2025 Jan 2, 9:06pm
anon5525 says
Demand is already falling.
What planet do you live on?
So the only way to decrease real prices is to decrease demand,
Demand is already falling.
What planet do you live on?
4
anon5525
2025 Jan 2, 9:53pm
DOGEWontAmountToShit says
This should happen. Repurposing office buildings as apartments makes no economic sense. Office buildings aren't built like apartments. However, even this is just a stop-gap measure if the population just keeps rising due to immigration.
That's funny. Because there is plenty of housing being built in businesses that have been torn down.
This should happen. Repurposing office buildings as apartments makes no economic sense. Office buildings aren't built like apartments. However, even this is just a stop-gap measure if the population just keeps rising due to immigration.
5
anon5525
2025 Jan 2, 9:54pm
DOGEWontAmountToShit says
Prices being out of reach isn't the same as demand falling. Everyone needs shelter. The population is the demand.
Demand is already falling.
What planet do you live on?
Prices being out of reach isn't the same as demand falling. Everyone needs shelter. The population is the demand.
6
DOGEWontAmountToShit
2025 Jan 2, 11:14pm
DOGEWontAmountToShit
2025 Jan 2, 11:14pm
anon5525 says
Sorry. Data is proving you totally wrong.
Prices being out of reach isn't the same as demand falling.
Sorry. Data is proving you totally wrong.
8
WookieMan
2025 Jan 2, 11:34pm
WookieMan
2025 Jan 2, 11:34pm
DOGEWontAmountToShit says
Where? Not giving away my area, but not happening here at all. Northern IL is all I'll say (not Chicago). No one can find rentals or houses for sale. We're at the phase where you have to build at this point.
Boomers are dying too that will mess with Phoenix metro and places like Fort Myers. And hipster cities like Austin and Nashville probably over built.
Just closed on a construction loan, it ain't easy to get a loan if you don't have the income. Poor people are getting smashed and have to live in shit holes. Average to slightly above average is doing fine. Super wealthy areas I could see a decline though for sure which drags down the national median, which I ignore. So rich people lose money, oh well. They don't even care. Usually they don't move.
anon5525 says
Prices being out of reach isn't the same as demand falling.
Sorry. Data is proving you totally wrong.
Where? Not giving away my area, but not happening here at all. Northern IL is all I'll say (not Chicago). No one can find rentals or houses for sale. We're at the phase where you have to build at this point.
Boomers are dying too that will mess with Phoenix metro and places like Fort Myers. And hipster cities like Austin and Nashville probably over built.
Just closed on a construction loan, it ain't easy to get a loan if you don't have the income. Poor people are getting smashed and have to live in shit holes. Average to slightly above average is doing fine. Super wealthy areas I could see a decline though for sure which drags down the national median, which I ignore. So rich people lose money, oh well. They don't even care. Usually they don't move.
9
DOGEWontAmountToShit
2025 Jan 3, 8:24am
DOGEWontAmountToShit
2025 Jan 3, 8:24am
anon5525 says
WTF do you mean?
It's been posted on PatNet extensively. You can also Google it.
Do it yourself.
Please show.
WTF do you mean?
It's been posted on PatNet extensively. You can also Google it.
Do it yourself.
10
ForcedTQ
2025 Jan 3, 10:52am
Qualifier to be in the demand calculation is the financial ability to purchase, so those that may want to buy a house but are financially unable to are not being counted OP. Not sure if you understand this or you are trying to say that they should be included? There’s a shit load of people millennial and Gen X who are spending money on “entertainment” and others excessive purchases rather than living like they actually want a house and saving up. That’s a discipline problem, along with taking out loans for whatever the bank will give them even though they shouldn’t, which has the effect of pushing prices up.
11
AmericanKulak
2025 Jan 3, 1:22pm
AmericanKulak
2025 Jan 3, 1:22pm
Homeloaners always remember the Neighbor down the street who sold for $500k "just a few months ago" when it was really over 2 years ago.
The same Homeloaner "Doesn't believe" current listing prices in Zillow or Redfin showing comparables going for $430k.
Until another neighbor with a home as large and new or larger and newer and nicer than his goes for $419k
Inventory in the COVID (and pre-COVID) booming cities like Austin, San Antonio as well as Atlanta and Orlando are double or more COVID levels and on par with the levels of ~2013.
Property taxes, homeowners insurance are all up 20-30% in the past few years in most of the country. Places like Texas and Florida already had insurance and/or taxes amnong the top 10 nationally before the increases.
Real Estate permanent plateauers are ignoring not only demographic shifts, but the double digit increases in unavoidable costs, period.
The same Homeloaner "Doesn't believe" current listing prices in Zillow or Redfin showing comparables going for $430k.
Until another neighbor with a home as large and new or larger and newer and nicer than his goes for $419k
Inventory in the COVID (and pre-COVID) booming cities like Austin, San Antonio as well as Atlanta and Orlando are double or more COVID levels and on par with the levels of ~2013.
Property taxes, homeowners insurance are all up 20-30% in the past few years in most of the country. Places like Texas and Florida already had insurance and/or taxes amnong the top 10 nationally before the increases.
Real Estate permanent plateauers are ignoring not only demographic shifts, but the double digit increases in unavoidable costs, period.
12
anon5525
2025 Jan 3, 2:35pm
DOGEWontAmountToShit says
The source "just trust me bro" is not reputable.
WTF do you mean?
It's been posted on PatNet extensively. You can also Google it.
Do it yourself.
The source "just trust me bro" is not reputable.
13
DOGEWontAmountToShit
2025 Jan 3, 2:39pm
DOGEWontAmountToShit
2025 Jan 3, 2:39pm
anon5525 says
I never said 'trust me bro'. I said, 'Do your own fucking research.' I am not your Google bitch. Especially when it comes to the equivalent of proving that the sky is blue.
After all the crap you just posted, your position is the one that has a reputation problem.
The source "just trust me bro" is not reputable.
I never said 'trust me bro'. I said, 'Do your own fucking research.' I am not your Google bitch. Especially when it comes to the equivalent of proving that the sky is blue.
After all the crap you just posted, your position is the one that has a reputation problem.
14
anon5525
2025 Jan 3, 2:40pm
Demand is a curve that's a function of price. It's how many units will be sold at a given price, not what the price is. The optimal price is where the demand and supply curves intersect. Demand isn't lowering in the long run -- it might drop a bit in the short term, but then rise again. Demand won't lower because the population keeps going up and America is all built out.
So unless Trump actually kicks out all the "asylum seekers" -- which I doubt -- demand isn't going down and prices will continue to rise in the long run. The "solution" that will be forced onto people will be the replacement of single family houses with tiny apartments. Apartments will also get smaller each decade until they are the coffin apartments you see in Japan.
So unless Trump actually kicks out all the "asylum seekers" -- which I doubt -- demand isn't going down and prices will continue to rise in the long run. The "solution" that will be forced onto people will be the replacement of single family houses with tiny apartments. Apartments will also get smaller each decade until they are the coffin apartments you see in Japan.
15
DOGEWontAmountToShit
2025 Jan 3, 2:42pm
DOGEWontAmountToShit
2025 Jan 3, 2:42pm
anon5525 says
No. Shit. Doesn't change that what you posted is wrong.
anon5525 says
Wrong and wrong.
It's how many units will be sold at a given price, not what the price is.
No. Shit. Doesn't change that what you posted is wrong.
anon5525 says
population keeps going up and America is all built out.
Wrong and wrong.
16
AmericanKulak
2025 Jan 3, 2:42pm
AmericanKulak
2025 Jan 3, 2:42pm
anon5525 says
How many years = long run?
Demand isn't lowering in the long run -- it might drop a bit in the short term
How many years = long run?
17
anon5525
2025 Jan 3, 2:51pm
DOGEWontAmountToShit says
Don't get mad because I caused you bluff. You are wrong about a fact on the internet. You're not the first. Fine, I'll do the five-second Google search for ya. You're welcome.
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Hits 17th Consecutive All-Time High in October
Normally, I'd say don't trust a book by its cover, or an article by its title, but in this case you can.
Just because you want to believe in something, doesn't make it true. And acting on false beliefs just harms yourself.
I never said 'trust me bro'. I said, 'Do your own fucking research.' I am not your Google bitch. Especially when it comes to the equivalent of proving that the sky is blue.
After all the crap you just posted, your position is the one that has a reputation problem.
Don't get mad because I caused you bluff. You are wrong about a fact on the internet. You're not the first. Fine, I'll do the five-second Google search for ya. You're welcome.
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Hits 17th Consecutive All-Time High in October
Normally, I'd say don't trust a book by its cover, or an article by its title, but in this case you can.
Just because you want to believe in something, doesn't make it true. And acting on false beliefs just harms yourself.
18
anon5525
2025 Jan 3, 3:00pm
AmericanKulak says
The graph you posted shows "sales", not "demand". There's an important difference. Sales are down because prices are up. Demand is the curve that shows how many sales will occur at a given price point. The graph you are showing simply illustrates that sellers are waiting out buyers -- not surprising given how many have historically low interest rates -- not that the demand from buyers isn't there.
About half of Millennials have not bought a house yet. There are more Millennials now than Boomers. And Gen Z is coming into the market as well despite not being able to afford it. The demand is there because the population is there. Few people actually want to rent. It's less secure and it's throwing away money. Yes, sometimes it makes financial sense to rent, but only when the housing market is screwing over first-time buyers because demand is far higher than supply.
I'm not saying I like any of these facts, but they are the facts. If this was just "market fluctuations", then the Case-Shiller would have dropped to 100 many years ago. The so-called "housing burst" only took the Case-Shiller halfway back to "pre-bubble" levels. And now it's left the height of the 2007 "bubble" in the dust. This is the new norm.
How many years = long run?
The graph you posted shows "sales", not "demand". There's an important difference. Sales are down because prices are up. Demand is the curve that shows how many sales will occur at a given price point. The graph you are showing simply illustrates that sellers are waiting out buyers -- not surprising given how many have historically low interest rates -- not that the demand from buyers isn't there.
About half of Millennials have not bought a house yet. There are more Millennials now than Boomers. And Gen Z is coming into the market as well despite not being able to afford it. The demand is there because the population is there. Few people actually want to rent. It's less secure and it's throwing away money. Yes, sometimes it makes financial sense to rent, but only when the housing market is screwing over first-time buyers because demand is far higher than supply.
I'm not saying I like any of these facts, but they are the facts. If this was just "market fluctuations", then the Case-Shiller would have dropped to 100 many years ago. The so-called "housing burst" only took the Case-Shiller halfway back to "pre-bubble" levels. And now it's left the height of the 2007 "bubble" in the dust. This is the new norm.
19
HeadSet
2025 Jan 3, 5:23pm
HeadSet
2025 Jan 3, 5:23pm
anon5525 says
Demand means willing and able to buy. If GenZ cannot afford it as you say, it would indicate that GenZ buyers are teaming up with others to buy the home. Are you seeing that in your area?
And Gen Z is coming into the market as well despite not being able to afford it.
Demand means willing and able to buy. If GenZ cannot afford it as you say, it would indicate that GenZ buyers are teaming up with others to buy the home. Are you seeing that in your area?
20
AmericanKulak
2025 Jan 3, 5:32pm
AmericanKulak
2025 Jan 3, 5:32pm
anon5525 says
You're assuming the Millennials are in the same fiscal shape as Boomers. They are not.
Boomers saw 3-4x median worker income for the Al Bundy special buiilt in the 1970s so far from downtown. Millennials are looking at 6-7x median worker income for an Al Bundy special built in the 1970s OR a similar sized newer house at a further distance OR a much smaller townhouse at the same distance. For now.
Boomers were married more often; Millennials are majority single. Millies have far fewer kids, but having 1 or None doesn't make up for the housing price to income disparity. Having 1.25 kids or being a dog mom instead of 2.5 kids doesn't make the house only cost 3-4x median income.
About half of Millennials have not bought a house yet. There are more Millennials now than Boomers.
You're assuming the Millennials are in the same fiscal shape as Boomers. They are not.
Boomers saw 3-4x median worker income for the Al Bundy special buiilt in the 1970s so far from downtown. Millennials are looking at 6-7x median worker income for an Al Bundy special built in the 1970s OR a similar sized newer house at a further distance OR a much smaller townhouse at the same distance. For now.
Boomers were married more often; Millennials are majority single. Millies have far fewer kids, but having 1 or None doesn't make up for the housing price to income disparity. Having 1.25 kids or being a dog mom instead of 2.5 kids doesn't make the house only cost 3-4x median income.
21
mell
2025 Jan 4, 8:31am
Agree with anon here. While I believe housing will not do great in the next years due to the high interest environment and continued downturn in CRE, there is no cliff or crash anywhere in sight. My prediction is prices will keep going up with inflation, but no more, maybe even slightly below.
So the only way to decrease real prices is to decrease demand, and the only way to do that is to kick out all illegal immigrants and anchor babies. Will Trump do this? Almost certainly not. Even with control over all three branches of the government, the Republicans are not going to get rid of all the illegals who are driving up housing prices and social welfare costs. I wish that I was wrong about this, but I'm not.
The United States population reached 200 million on November 20, 1967. If there was no net migration, then the U.S. population have stabilized to about 220 million. Instead, the population is 335 million. This is why housing is so expensive. This is why rent is so damn high. This is why the younger generations cannot afford to have children. This is why the only way to keep the population from falling is to import massive numbers of unskilled, uneducated, and often criminal immigrants. Both parties are responsible for this: democrats for importing voters and republicans for importing farm laborers. Both parties want cheap labor.
When you import massive numbers of low-iq, low-skill workers, your per capital GDP declines relative to where it would have been otherwise. Yes, technological advancements mask this because technology increases GDP faster than low-skill immigration decreases it, but most of those gains don't get seen by the middle class.
Since both parties, and their corporate overlords, are benefiting from the current system, immigration will continue and housing prices will also continue to rise. I suppose I shouldn't care since I own and have a 2.25% mortgage that is being eaten away by inflation, but anyone young enough that they having bought already is fucked.