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103
WookieMan
2025 May 12, 1:40pm
WookieMan
2025 May 12, 1:40pm
MolotovCocktail says
Arguing about arguing. Tell tale sign of a troll. You change your name damn near weekly. You're the only user here ever with a GIF. Just admit you're a bull shitter. Patrick likely could look this up.
MolotovCocktail says
You haven't owned a house. I can spot a fraud a mile away. I did it for a living so our clients didn't get screwed. You're a class A bull shit artist on the internet.
And FW he can just admit he's a liar. No shame in that. He puts comment on here that are patently false.
No I don't. And so what if I did? Ad hominem.
Arguing about arguing. Tell tale sign of a troll. You change your name damn near weekly. You're the only user here ever with a GIF. Just admit you're a bull shitter. Patrick likely could look this up.
MolotovCocktail says
You know nothing about real estate. You've never owned, bought or sold a home. It's time to stop being a liar.
Wrong again.
You haven't owned a house. I can spot a fraud a mile away. I did it for a living so our clients didn't get screwed. You're a class A bull shit artist on the internet.
And FW he can just admit he's a liar. No shame in that. He puts comment on here that are patently false.
104
Eric Holder
2025 May 12, 1:44pm
Eric Holder
2025 May 12, 1:44pm
Glock-n-Load says
Cheaper to build apartment buildings. But where the fuck do the tenants go if the staircase is blocked by fire is an interesting question.
Why is this a good thing?
Cheaper to build apartment buildings. But where the fuck do the tenants go if the staircase is blocked by fire is an interesting question.
105
MolotovCocktail
2025 May 12, 5:53pm
MolotovCocktail
2025 May 12, 5:53pm
WookieMan says
No I don't. And even if I did, that's not a sign of a troll. And even if I am a troll, that doesn't mean I am lying.
WookieMan says
Untrue. Who is lying now?
WookieMan says
This is not false:
MolotovCocktail says
...and THAT factual statement is what set Wookie off, folks. Remember? He doesn't want you to.
Tell tale sign of a troll. You change your name damn near weekly.
No I don't. And even if I did, that's not a sign of a troll. And even if I am a troll, that doesn't mean I am lying.
WookieMan says
You haven't owned a house.
Untrue. Who is lying now?
WookieMan says
And FW he can just admit he's a liar. No shame in that. He puts comment on here that are patently false.
This is not false:
MolotovCocktail says
All these wacko attacks don't change the fact that this comment got 8 likes and was #2 in Best Comments:
https://patrick.net/comment?comment_id=2139802
...and THAT factual statement is what set Wookie off, folks. Remember? He doesn't want you to.
106
WookieMan
2025 May 12, 6:46pm
WookieMan
2025 May 12, 6:46pm
MolotovCocktail says
Congrats on the participation award. Almost as many ignores as 1/10th my time here. You're a troll. Don't work. Don't own a home. Comment as much as I have in 13 years basically. I'm glad you accomplished getting likes. Totally matters to someone with a small dick on an anonymous forum.
You post trash and make no sense. My 6th grader is less childish than you. You do understand mosts likes of your comments are hate likes. It's like Lebron James. You sound immature and stupid like he does. Most likes are people that don't like you.
I'm not here for likes and childish picture books, memes and porn. That's something a child does. Write anything of substance that isn't a lie.
MolotovCocktail says
All these wacko attacks don't change the fact that this comment got 8 likes and was #2 in Best Comments:
https://patrick.net/comment?comment_id=2139802
...and THAT factual statement is what set Wookie off, folks. Remember? He doesn't want you to.
Congrats on the participation award. Almost as many ignores as 1/10th my time here. You're a troll. Don't work. Don't own a home. Comment as much as I have in 13 years basically. I'm glad you accomplished getting likes. Totally matters to someone with a small dick on an anonymous forum.
You post trash and make no sense. My 6th grader is less childish than you. You do understand mosts likes of your comments are hate likes. It's like Lebron James. You sound immature and stupid like he does. Most likes are people that don't like you.
I'm not here for likes and childish picture books, memes and porn. That's something a child does. Write anything of substance that isn't a lie.
108
MolotovCocktail
2025 May 12, 9:38pm
MolotovCocktail
2025 May 12, 9:38pm
WookieMan says
And you accuse me of lying?
WookieMan says
That second best comment was B.A.C.H.A's, not mine.
See. Even when you are trashing someone, you don't get it right.
Don't work. Don't own a home.
And you accuse me of lying?
WookieMan says
I'm glad you accomplished getting likes
That second best comment was B.A.C.H.A's, not mine.
See. Even when you are trashing someone, you don't get it right.
109
AD
2025 May 12, 11:33pm
AD
2025 May 12, 11:33pm
from 2 January 2025 post on Calculated Risk Blog, yet prices have not gone down as much compared to just after mortgage applications peaked around 2005
Wolfman at Wolf Street has an article yesterday that shows total sales for residential units (homes, condos, townhomes, etc) at 1995 levels , worse than after the Great Financial Crisis (2007-2011)
along with MishTalk, the Wolfman at Wolf Street and The Calculated Risk Blog as the best sources for housing and finance
Wolfman at Wolf Street has an article yesterday that shows total sales for residential units (homes, condos, townhomes, etc) at 1995 levels , worse than after the Great Financial Crisis (2007-2011)
along with MishTalk, the Wolfman at Wolf Street and The Calculated Risk Blog as the best sources for housing and finance
110
WookieMan
2025 May 13, 1:40am
WookieMan
2025 May 13, 1:40am
AD says
We're in a normal market with balanced inventories. Some metros starting building at a faster rate for the inflow. Inventory is your key metric. People are staying in their homes longer because of rates. Millennials fled cities as they started families. Boomers retired and did their move.
Hell Millennials are moving up and the few boomers that aren't poor and don't have to keep working just downsized to those what would be smaller starter homes. Creates no inventory UNLESS your area built a bunch. It's when Boomers die or enter nursing homes which is still 10 years away on average. Probably 20.
Also 90% of builders are pure trash, so no one wants to buy new. Custom builders are killing it though. All the guys on my house are lifers and they're 45-55. Haven't seen a latino on my site. I generally don't have a problem with them, but there's generally a language barrier and things get messed up. Don't have the finished floor yet, but I'd eat off the subfloor. That how clean and precise my building and his contractors are.
The application index is just showing a normal market. Everyone blew their load to get in on low interest rates from 2016-2022. 2002-2008 was basically mortgage fraud. Like I said Millennials bought houses and the boomers that retired, sold and bought the Millennials houses to downsize when both were affordable. This idea that all boomers had McMansions is stupid. That was maybe 3-5% of housing if that.
Said it before your big risk markets are Nashville, Austin, Denver, Phoenix to an extent due to 55+ communities but that only influences a few, Boise, Tampa (maybe), Las Vegas is always on the list and I think Los Angeles is gonna have issues. These are larger metros that will bring national numbers down. New York I don't know, you got a lot of high paying banker jobs and real estate brokers that can make $60-200k a deal. Boston I could see taking a step down as I don't know why you'd live there. Similar thing with Chicago, but I think the bulk of the outflow has happened here.
It's not a good or bad time to buy. I just really wouldn't want to be in the cities above. That's where the losses are going to come from and freaks everyone out.
Topic for a different thread probably for those that live there. But 95% of tech people use is maxed out. Venture capitalist are probably going to move into different markets. So I could see an outflow from San Fransisco area, but that might be 8-10 years away. CA has a high floor because of weather though and people just stay. Or live in a tent.
TL:DR - The real estate market is fine. It will be for a while.
along with MishTalk, the Wolfman at Wolf Street and The Calculated Risk Blog as the best sources for housing and finance
We're in a normal market with balanced inventories. Some metros starting building at a faster rate for the inflow. Inventory is your key metric. People are staying in their homes longer because of rates. Millennials fled cities as they started families. Boomers retired and did their move.
Hell Millennials are moving up and the few boomers that aren't poor and don't have to keep working just downsized to those what would be smaller starter homes. Creates no inventory UNLESS your area built a bunch. It's when Boomers die or enter nursing homes which is still 10 years away on average. Probably 20.
Also 90% of builders are pure trash, so no one wants to buy new. Custom builders are killing it though. All the guys on my house are lifers and they're 45-55. Haven't seen a latino on my site. I generally don't have a problem with them, but there's generally a language barrier and things get messed up. Don't have the finished floor yet, but I'd eat off the subfloor. That how clean and precise my building and his contractors are.
The application index is just showing a normal market. Everyone blew their load to get in on low interest rates from 2016-2022. 2002-2008 was basically mortgage fraud. Like I said Millennials bought houses and the boomers that retired, sold and bought the Millennials houses to downsize when both were affordable. This idea that all boomers had McMansions is stupid. That was maybe 3-5% of housing if that.
Said it before your big risk markets are Nashville, Austin, Denver, Phoenix to an extent due to 55+ communities but that only influences a few, Boise, Tampa (maybe), Las Vegas is always on the list and I think Los Angeles is gonna have issues. These are larger metros that will bring national numbers down. New York I don't know, you got a lot of high paying banker jobs and real estate brokers that can make $60-200k a deal. Boston I could see taking a step down as I don't know why you'd live there. Similar thing with Chicago, but I think the bulk of the outflow has happened here.
It's not a good or bad time to buy. I just really wouldn't want to be in the cities above. That's where the losses are going to come from and freaks everyone out.
Topic for a different thread probably for those that live there. But 95% of tech people use is maxed out. Venture capitalist are probably going to move into different markets. So I could see an outflow from San Fransisco area, but that might be 8-10 years away. CA has a high floor because of weather though and people just stay. Or live in a tent.
TL:DR - The real estate market is fine. It will be for a while.
111
HeadSet
2025 May 13, 6:05pm
HeadSet
2025 May 13, 6:05pm
WookieMan says
What type of wood or wood product are you using? Are you putting in a gap between sheets? Also, you never gave the answer to your R Factor quiz (or I missed it).
Don't have the finished floor yet, but I'd eat off the subfloor.
What type of wood or wood product are you using? Are you putting in a gap between sheets? Also, you never gave the answer to your R Factor quiz (or I missed it).
112
AD
2025 May 13, 6:29pm
AD
2025 May 13, 6:29pm
WookieMan says
Examine what drove the population growth for the zip code, such as +55 year old retirees in The Villages.
I think The Villages would adjust to demographic changes and not be building as much since the Baby Boomer generation is almost done moving there from the north.
For Panama City and Bay County Florida, one major benefit is that a lot of the tourism base is within 5 hours drive such as Atlanta metro and Huntsville Alabama. They have major events almost every weekend during "off season" such as from 1 March to mid May, and again mid September to end of November.
They are trying to improve tourism during the non beach weather months of December, January and February.
And its economy is diversifying such as with shipbuilding, pipe manufacturing, HVAC manufacturing, and electronics and electrical manufacturing.
.
Said it before your big risk markets are Nashville, Austin, Denver, Phoenix to an extent due to 55+ communities but that only influences a few, Boise, Tampa (maybe), Las Vegas is always on the list and I think Los Angeles is gonna have issues. These are larger metros that will bring national numbers down. New York I don't know, you got a lot of high paying banker jobs and real estate brokers that can make $60-200k a deal. Boston I could see taking a step down as I don't know why you'd live there. Similar thing with Chicago, but I think the bulk of the outflow has happened here.
Examine what drove the population growth for the zip code, such as +55 year old retirees in The Villages.
I think The Villages would adjust to demographic changes and not be building as much since the Baby Boomer generation is almost done moving there from the north.
For Panama City and Bay County Florida, one major benefit is that a lot of the tourism base is within 5 hours drive such as Atlanta metro and Huntsville Alabama. They have major events almost every weekend during "off season" such as from 1 March to mid May, and again mid September to end of November.
They are trying to improve tourism during the non beach weather months of December, January and February.
And its economy is diversifying such as with shipbuilding, pipe manufacturing, HVAC manufacturing, and electronics and electrical manufacturing.
.
113
AD
2025 May 13, 6:47pm
AD
2025 May 13, 6:47pm
WookieMan says
Examine what drove the population growth for the zip code, such as +55 year old retirees in The Villages.
I think The Villages would adjust to demographic changes and not be building as much since the Baby Boomer generation is almost done moving there from the north. The Villages is going to have to re invent itself.
For Panama City and Bay County Florida, one major benefit is that a lot of the tourism base is within 5 hours drive such as Atlanta metro and Huntsville Alabama. They have major events almost every weekend during "off season" such as from 1 March to mid May, and again mid September to end of November.
They are trying to improve tourism during the non beach weather months of December, January and February.
And its economy is diversifying such as with shipbuilding, pipe manufacturing, HVAC manufacturing, and electronics and electrical manufacturing.
.
Said it before your big risk markets are Nashville, Austin, Denver, Phoenix to an extent due to 55+ communities but that only influences a few, Boise, Tampa (maybe), Las Vegas is always on the list and I think Los Angeles is gonna have issues. These are larger metros that will bring national numbers down. New York I don't know, you got a lot of high paying banker jobs and real estate brokers that can make $60-200k a deal. Boston I could see taking a step down as I don't know why you'd live there. Similar thing with Chicago, but I think the bulk of the outflow has happened here.
Examine what drove the population growth for the zip code, such as +55 year old retirees in The Villages.
I think The Villages would adjust to demographic changes and not be building as much since the Baby Boomer generation is almost done moving there from the north. The Villages is going to have to re invent itself.
For Panama City and Bay County Florida, one major benefit is that a lot of the tourism base is within 5 hours drive such as Atlanta metro and Huntsville Alabama. They have major events almost every weekend during "off season" such as from 1 March to mid May, and again mid September to end of November.
They are trying to improve tourism during the non beach weather months of December, January and February.
And its economy is diversifying such as with shipbuilding, pipe manufacturing, HVAC manufacturing, and electronics and electrical manufacturing.
.
114
WookieMan
2025 May 13, 7:37pm
WookieMan
2025 May 13, 7:37pm
HeadSet says
I'll get to this eventually. I'm in overload mode currently. I honestly cannot recall the R value at this time. I don't know the wood product either. I do bitch here, but tend to keep it light. But building a $700k house and having another $2.5M project going on is a bit much. 2 kids qualified for 3 state events in track. Have to drive 2 hours each way and drop $1k on hotels. Meals another $400 probably.
I'll try to update my build thread with photos. I was there today, but it was too dark. I don't like being there when the contractors are there so it's tough. In my adult life though I've never, ever seen a cleaner construction site in my life and that's with 15 years of real estate under my belt. I legit get a hard on walking through. There's no saw dust. Any material is neatly placed to the side and organized.
I'll try to get there in the morning and do a walk and take some photos. The outside is not the prettiest since they haven't done sidewalks or final grading. July/August can't come fast enough.
WookieMan says
Don't have the finished floor yet, but I'd eat off the subfloor.
What type of wood or wood product are you using? Are you putting in a gap between sheets? Also, you never gave the answer to your R Factor quiz (or I missed it).
I'll get to this eventually. I'm in overload mode currently. I honestly cannot recall the R value at this time. I don't know the wood product either. I do bitch here, but tend to keep it light. But building a $700k house and having another $2.5M project going on is a bit much. 2 kids qualified for 3 state events in track. Have to drive 2 hours each way and drop $1k on hotels. Meals another $400 probably.
I'll try to update my build thread with photos. I was there today, but it was too dark. I don't like being there when the contractors are there so it's tough. In my adult life though I've never, ever seen a cleaner construction site in my life and that's with 15 years of real estate under my belt. I legit get a hard on walking through. There's no saw dust. Any material is neatly placed to the side and organized.
I'll try to get there in the morning and do a walk and take some photos. The outside is not the prettiest since they haven't done sidewalks or final grading. July/August can't come fast enough.
115
B.A.C.A.H.
2025 May 14, 6:17am
B.A.C.A.H.
2025 May 14, 6:17am
AD says
Your own words. Compared to communities in the Florida Panhandle, or outskirts of Chicago, or other places in Flyover Country I'd say the Bay Area is chocked full of H1's. Disclosure: I'm not defending our reality, - I don't like it. It is what it is.
AD says
A bit more than half of those are owner-occupied, 1.5M or so. Of those, approximately 50K per year, or 3% of the total, are sold-bought per year. This is mainly because of distortions to the marketplace created by Proposition-13. And homeowners dying off hasn't yet significantly skewed the numbers, - at least not yet. My culdesac has several residences where the kids inherited the homes and their Prop-13 assessment. Quite likely my kids will inherit ours when the time comes.
So we have our tsunami of H1's jockeying for the 50K or so listings per year, - not the 1.5 M overall you cite.
There's more turnover in the rental market, - sort of. In some municipalities, including SJ where I live, older rentals can be subject to rent control (in SJ I think it's pre-1979 construction or something like that). This has created a NYC-like situation that prevents turnover and reset to market rates, - and crowding the H1's who rent into the newer market-rate construction rentals.
Again, I'm not a fan of these realities, they are what they are. You can hate me (and Patrick and the rest of us) for choosing to live here, Sticks and Stones. I like being around friends and family and being a daily part of my granddaughter's life. For the time being the tradeoffs are worth it for me, bro.
You can do Fact Check "gotcha!" on my figures if you want to, whatever. I was using sort of round numbers.
About 25% of H1B visas are in California, and 80% of those are in the San Fran Bay Area. So figure 120,000 H1B visa workers are in the San Fran Bay Area.
I'm not sure why the original poster B A C A H uses the language of chocked full when it is less than 5%.
Your own words. Compared to communities in the Florida Panhandle, or outskirts of Chicago, or other places in Flyover Country I'd say the Bay Area is chocked full of H1's. Disclosure: I'm not defending our reality, - I don't like it. It is what it is.
AD says
There were 2,793,526 homes in 2020 in San Fran Bay Area so even if 120,000 H1B visa workers owned a home, that would only be less than 5% of the housing inventory.
A bit more than half of those are owner-occupied, 1.5M or so. Of those, approximately 50K per year, or 3% of the total, are sold-bought per year. This is mainly because of distortions to the marketplace created by Proposition-13. And homeowners dying off hasn't yet significantly skewed the numbers, - at least not yet. My culdesac has several residences where the kids inherited the homes and their Prop-13 assessment. Quite likely my kids will inherit ours when the time comes.
So we have our tsunami of H1's jockeying for the 50K or so listings per year, - not the 1.5 M overall you cite.
There's more turnover in the rental market, - sort of. In some municipalities, including SJ where I live, older rentals can be subject to rent control (in SJ I think it's pre-1979 construction or something like that). This has created a NYC-like situation that prevents turnover and reset to market rates, - and crowding the H1's who rent into the newer market-rate construction rentals.
Again, I'm not a fan of these realities, they are what they are. You can hate me (and Patrick and the rest of us) for choosing to live here, Sticks and Stones. I like being around friends and family and being a daily part of my granddaughter's life. For the time being the tradeoffs are worth it for me, bro.
You can do Fact Check "gotcha!" on my figures if you want to, whatever. I was using sort of round numbers.
116
Fortwaye
2025 May 14, 6:31am
Bacah when I went to Yellowstone last time it felt like it was mini India. I'm pretty sure entire SF Bay Area didn't come that day either. Numbers are much higher than we get publicly told, maybe it's additive over years or something. I don't know, I just know it's a lot.
117
B.A.C.A.H.
2025 May 14, 7:10am
B.A.C.A.H.
2025 May 14, 7:10am
Fortwaye says
I've had scores of these folks as colleagues over the decades. Including even, an engineering manager boss. Since they don't wanna risk their H1 visa they don't leave the US for their vacations (USVI and Puerto Rico are favorites for them as "international" substitutes).
For long car trips, often they take along family members (particularly their own parents or auntie/uncles) who come to the US from India (or Duabi, etc if they live there) to see our spectacular outdoor spots. So that tsunami of Indian tourists who you observed might be one or two actual H1's along with two or more accompanying "tourists" from abroad.
Bacah when I went to Yellowstone last time it felt like it was mini India. I'm pretty sure entire SF Bay Area didn't come that day either. Numbers are much higher than we get publicly told, maybe it's additive over years or something. I don't know, I just know it's a lot.
I've had scores of these folks as colleagues over the decades. Including even, an engineering manager boss. Since they don't wanna risk their H1 visa they don't leave the US for their vacations (USVI and Puerto Rico are favorites for them as "international" substitutes).
For long car trips, often they take along family members (particularly their own parents or auntie/uncles) who come to the US from India (or Duabi, etc if they live there) to see our spectacular outdoor spots. So that tsunami of Indian tourists who you observed might be one or two actual H1's along with two or more accompanying "tourists" from abroad.
119
AD
2025 May 14, 8:31am
AD
2025 May 14, 8:31am
GNL says
Looks like Newsom has still not signed this into law after it was passed by the California Senate in August of last year. It would have been bad optics during the last election year, and I suspect the DNC told Newsom to shelve that bill.
Wait to see if it does become law when essentially no one is looking.
.
Looks like Newsom has still not signed this into law after it was passed by the California Senate in August of last year. It would have been bad optics during the last election year, and I suspect the DNC told Newsom to shelve that bill.
Wait to see if it does become law when essentially no one is looking.
.
123
WookieMan
2025 May 22, 7:16pm
WookieMan
2025 May 22, 7:16pm
MolotovCocktail says
So? One clearly overpriced market, reliant on one industry to keep housing afloat. No one saw that coming....
Meanwhile in IL it's just fine. Coastal areas drag down national stats and people freak out. There's no crash NATIONALLY coming.
https://wolfstreet.com/2025/05/21/as-tech-jobs-plunge-in-san-francisco-silicon-valley-housing-reacts-condo-prices-drop-back-to-2015-single-family-home-prices-back-to-2018/
So? One clearly overpriced market, reliant on one industry to keep housing afloat. No one saw that coming....
Meanwhile in IL it's just fine. Coastal areas drag down national stats and people freak out. There's no crash NATIONALLY coming.
124
AD
2025 May 22, 10:41pm
AD
2025 May 22, 10:41pm
WookieMan says
Have to examine quality of life which includes local cost of living and job market.
I hear how California is great weather, outdoors, and culture so that justifies the high cost of living compared to what jobs pay there.
Panama City Beach (and Florida) has gotten like that to some extent, but it has subsided as I notice townhome rents on the east end of Panama City Beach remain at 2021 levels since early 2024.
I loved living near Winchester, Virginia as it was cheap living, but it was good quality of life, especially with Shenandoah University having a lot ot offer year round from football, basketball , baseball and other sports to watch, as well as a music concerts and plays.
I'd live in Illinois if it was in a college town like that.
.
Meanwhile in IL it's just fine. Coastal areas drag down national stats and people freak out. There's no crash NATIONALLY coming.
Have to examine quality of life which includes local cost of living and job market.
I hear how California is great weather, outdoors, and culture so that justifies the high cost of living compared to what jobs pay there.
Panama City Beach (and Florida) has gotten like that to some extent, but it has subsided as I notice townhome rents on the east end of Panama City Beach remain at 2021 levels since early 2024.
I loved living near Winchester, Virginia as it was cheap living, but it was good quality of life, especially with Shenandoah University having a lot ot offer year round from football, basketball , baseball and other sports to watch, as well as a music concerts and plays.
I'd live in Illinois if it was in a college town like that.
.
125
AD
2025 May 23, 12:00am
AD
2025 May 23, 12:00am
WookieMan says
Housing construction in Illinois primarily will be to replace old and condemned housing.
Meanwhile in IL it's just fine. Coastal areas drag down national stats and people freak out. There's no crash NATIONALLY coming.
Housing construction in Illinois primarily will be to replace old and condemned housing.
126
WookieMan
2025 May 23, 6:33am
WookieMan
2025 May 23, 6:33am
AD says
In Chicago for sure that is correct. There are still a lot of old frame houses (not brick or block) that are falling apart. Especially in ghetto areas.
AD says
Champaign/Urbana (U of I) is about the only place in IL you'd get that vibe. Southern IL University area is not bad scenery wise and weather wise for IL. Less snow and cold but it still happens. They've got a decent following though not huge.
Northern IL U, nope. Western IL U, nope. Eastern IL U, maybe. You'd be better going to Madision, WI or South Bend, IN. Iowa City is cool too. Once you get north of I-80 winter is real. Although this year it was light on snow. Hence why we had dust storms because the soil had no moisture.
As I've said it's going sideways in IL. But they are building at replacement rate. They've been behind for 15 years since the housing crash. I know the Panhandle has had a boom in housing. I know the Water Color area to your West has built out in a big way. There was nothing there when I was a kid.
We'd go East from Navarre out of Santa Rosa county, because it was a hard liquor dry county. My dad liked his occasional gin and tonic at night. But we'd go East to leave the county. Usually do a first day trip to PCB to grab some and he was a real estate junkie and always looking. So served two purposes.
Housing construction in Illinois primarily will be to replace old and condemned housing.
In Chicago for sure that is correct. There are still a lot of old frame houses (not brick or block) that are falling apart. Especially in ghetto areas.
AD says
I'd live in Illinois if it was in a college town like that.
Champaign/Urbana (U of I) is about the only place in IL you'd get that vibe. Southern IL University area is not bad scenery wise and weather wise for IL. Less snow and cold but it still happens. They've got a decent following though not huge.
Northern IL U, nope. Western IL U, nope. Eastern IL U, maybe. You'd be better going to Madision, WI or South Bend, IN. Iowa City is cool too. Once you get north of I-80 winter is real. Although this year it was light on snow. Hence why we had dust storms because the soil had no moisture.
As I've said it's going sideways in IL. But they are building at replacement rate. They've been behind for 15 years since the housing crash. I know the Panhandle has had a boom in housing. I know the Water Color area to your West has built out in a big way. There was nothing there when I was a kid.
We'd go East from Navarre out of Santa Rosa county, because it was a hard liquor dry county. My dad liked his occasional gin and tonic at night. But we'd go East to leave the county. Usually do a first day trip to PCB to grab some and he was a real estate junkie and always looking. So served two purposes.
127
zzyzzx
2025 May 23, 6:56am
zzyzzx
2025 May 23, 6:56am
Housing prices will not go down.
https://www.fastcompany.com/91337938/housing-market-zillow-first-annual-u-s-home-price-drop-since-2011
Zillow: Housing market to see first annual U.S. home price drop since 2011
https://www.fastcompany.com/91337938/housing-market-zillow-first-annual-u-s-home-price-drop-since-2011
Zillow: Housing market to see first annual U.S. home price drop since 2011
128
MolotovCocktail
2025 May 23, 7:54am
MolotovCocktail
2025 May 23, 7:54am
WookieMan says
So? Who cares about Bumfuq, IL?
Meanwhile in IL it's just fine. Coastal areas drag down national stats and people freak out. There's no crash NATIONALLY coming.
So? Who cares about Bumfuq, IL?
129
WookieMan
2025 May 23, 8:22am
WookieMan
2025 May 23, 8:22am
MolotovCocktail says
60% of the country that doesn't live on the coasts. Sorry you lost money. I didn't. Take out CA, NY, WA, OR and no one really cares about RE prices. https://www.iowadatacenter.org/index.php/data-by-source/population-estimates/state-population-map-vintage-2023
You live in overpriced areas that are always due for correction. Smart people don't. I just want slight appreciation and have a extra little nest egg at the end of the journey and not be broke. On pace for $5M by the end of this decade. What do I know though? $150k at 3% a year without drawing it down? I'm for sure losing.... Toss in dividends and it's $225k all day. I guess living in shitty IL is soooooo bad. Oh and my house in 20-30 years will be worth $2M paid off. Hate the game, not the player.
WookieMan says
Meanwhile in IL it's just fine. Coastal areas drag down national stats and people freak out. There's no crash NATIONALLY coming.
So? Who cares about Bumfuq, IL?
60% of the country that doesn't live on the coasts. Sorry you lost money. I didn't. Take out CA, NY, WA, OR and no one really cares about RE prices. https://www.iowadatacenter.org/index.php/data-by-source/population-estimates/state-population-map-vintage-2023
You live in overpriced areas that are always due for correction. Smart people don't. I just want slight appreciation and have a extra little nest egg at the end of the journey and not be broke. On pace for $5M by the end of this decade. What do I know though? $150k at 3% a year without drawing it down? I'm for sure losing.... Toss in dividends and it's $225k all day. I guess living in shitty IL is soooooo bad. Oh and my house in 20-30 years will be worth $2M paid off. Hate the game, not the player.
130
MolotovCocktail
2025 May 23, 8:42am
MolotovCocktail
2025 May 23, 8:42am
WookieMan says
So fucking what?
The article I posted wasn't about national RE markets or Bumfuq, IL. But you pretend it somehow was and then proceed to bitch about it in that imaginary context. You do this all rhe time.
Then when someone points this out, you double down on the doing it again.
60% of the country that doesn't live on the coasts. Sorry
So fucking what?
The article I posted wasn't about national RE markets or Bumfuq, IL. But you pretend it somehow was and then proceed to bitch about it in that imaginary context. You do this all rhe time.
Then when someone points this out, you double down on the doing it again.
131
WookieMan
2025 May 23, 8:56am
WookieMan
2025 May 23, 8:56am
MolotovCocktail says
So have Pat change the site to California.net? You can't spit doom and gloom. Start a new thread with its own content. This is a housing prices will not go down thread. Not started by me. You're posting about a specific location. Start a thread on it. Thanks to Pat we can now ignore it.
All I did is commentate on my REGION, not city. Start a new thread... It's 100% okay to say that's not happening around me. You seem offended like you're losing money or something?
The article I posted wasn't about national RE markets or Bumfuq, IL. But you pretend it somehow was and then proceed to bitch about it in that imaginary context. You do this all rhe time.
So have Pat change the site to California.net? You can't spit doom and gloom. Start a new thread with its own content. This is a housing prices will not go down thread. Not started by me. You're posting about a specific location. Start a thread on it. Thanks to Pat we can now ignore it.
All I did is commentate on my REGION, not city. Start a new thread... It's 100% okay to say that's not happening around me. You seem offended like you're losing money or something?
132
HeadSet
2025 May 23, 6:21pm
HeadSet
2025 May 23, 6:21pm
AD says
Beautiful area. I remember going to the Apple Blossom Festival when I was in high school.
I loved living near Winchester, Virginia as it was cheap living, but it was good quality of life, especially with Shenandoah University having a lot ot offer year round from football, basketball , baseball and other sports to watch, as well as a music concerts and plays.
Beautiful area. I remember going to the Apple Blossom Festival when I was in high school.
133
MolotovCocktail
2025 May 27, 6:45am
MolotovCocktail
2025 May 27, 6:45am
WookieMan says
So do you. Bumfuq, IL. All the time. Nobody cares.
You're posting about a specific locatio
So do you. Bumfuq, IL. All the time. Nobody cares.
136
WookieMan
2025 Jun 1, 4:30pm
WookieMan
2025 Jun 1, 4:30pm
MolotovCocktail says
Where???? Realtors are always panicking. It's not a consistent paycheck. Clear clickbait headline. Only 1-5% of Realtors don't panic, those are the top dogs. 80% could work at McDonalds and make more. Not a joke when you factor in managing broker split. Usually around the 30/70 mark. A $500k home would net you $10,500 excluding taxes. You have to sell $5M-$7M to make a decent living. Not good. Decent.
Where???? Realtors are always panicking. It's not a consistent paycheck. Clear clickbait headline. Only 1-5% of Realtors don't panic, those are the top dogs. 80% could work at McDonalds and make more. Not a joke when you factor in managing broker split. Usually around the 30/70 mark. A $500k home would net you $10,500 excluding taxes. You have to sell $5M-$7M to make a decent living. Not good. Decent.
138
Glock-n-Load
2025 Jun 2, 8:49am
MolotovCocktail says
Isn’t that about 1,500,000 listings? Doesn’t sound like a ton of listings but, I don’t know what normal is for the entire country so…
Isn’t that about 1,500,000 listings? Doesn’t sound like a ton of listings but, I don’t know what normal is for the entire country so…
139
WookieMan
2025 Jun 2, 9:19am
WookieMan
2025 Jun 2, 9:19am
Glock-n-Load says
Doesn't matter. There is no value until it's sold. The $698B is likely a made up number because you can't know that until the house sells. List price means dick because 10-20% of listings are trial balloon listings. Eh lets see if we can sell it but they don't have to.
Doesn't mean default or anything. This has been going on for ages. Especially for people with multiple properties. People might be moving and want to get out of that market. Like cities where the highest market value generally is in that region so it looks like a big number.
I've said this all along, certain markets are going to eat shit. If this number is remotely accurate, it's going to happen in cities.
Also more bull shit posts (not you) with no link, but a screen shot from some social media page and a shitty meme. Par for the course. Information beat photos 100% of the time. Got nothing with these images.
Isn’t that about 1,500,000 listings? Doesn’t sound like a ton of listings but, I don’t know what normal is for the entire country so…
Doesn't matter. There is no value until it's sold. The $698B is likely a made up number because you can't know that until the house sells. List price means dick because 10-20% of listings are trial balloon listings. Eh lets see if we can sell it but they don't have to.
Doesn't mean default or anything. This has been going on for ages. Especially for people with multiple properties. People might be moving and want to get out of that market. Like cities where the highest market value generally is in that region so it looks like a big number.
I've said this all along, certain markets are going to eat shit. If this number is remotely accurate, it's going to happen in cities.
Also more bull shit posts (not you) with no link, but a screen shot from some social media page and a shitty meme. Par for the course. Information beat photos 100% of the time. Got nothing with these images.
140
AD
2025 Jun 2, 9:48am
AD
2025 Jun 2, 9:48am
MolotovCocktail says
The general rule is a 10% drop for a 1% increase in the 30 year mortgage rate. Assume peak price was in early 2022 at a 3% rate, and assume household income has increased by 20% since then.
Hence, home prices generally should be 72% of the all time high price set in early 2022 based on the 30 yr mortgage rate of 7% , or a 28% discount
0.6 x 1.2 = 72%
.
The general rule is a 10% drop for a 1% increase in the 30 year mortgage rate. Assume peak price was in early 2022 at a 3% rate, and assume household income has increased by 20% since then.
Hence, home prices generally should be 72% of the all time high price set in early 2022 based on the 30 yr mortgage rate of 7% , or a 28% discount
0.6 x 1.2 = 72%
.
141
AD
2025 Jun 2, 10:05am
AD
2025 Jun 2, 10:05am
WookieMan says
I agree as I just look at trends of sales price not the listing price.
I think for my zip code (Panama City Beach, FL) there is at least 35% trial balloon listings that is why I don't pay much attention to months on the market or "months of supply".
I examine HOAs with at least 100 units such as Hathaway Townhomes to achieve a reliable trend analysis.
I'll extrapolate such as sales price per square foot for townhome units with at least a 1 car garage.
.
Doesn't matter. There is no value until it's sold.
I agree as I just look at trends of sales price not the listing price.
I think for my zip code (Panama City Beach, FL) there is at least 35% trial balloon listings that is why I don't pay much attention to months on the market or "months of supply".
I examine HOAs with at least 100 units such as Hathaway Townhomes to achieve a reliable trend analysis.
I'll extrapolate such as sales price per square foot for townhome units with at least a 1 car garage.
.
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So the only way to decrease real prices is to decrease demand, and the only way to do that is to kick out all illegal immigrants and anchor babies. Will Trump do this? Almost certainly not. Even with control over all three branches of the government, the Republicans are not going to get rid of all the illegals who are driving up housing prices and social welfare costs. I wish that I was wrong about this, but I'm not.
The United States population reached 200 million on November 20, 1967. If there was no net migration, then the U.S. population have stabilized to about 220 million. Instead, the population is 335 million. This is why housing is so expensive. This is why rent is so damn high. This is why the younger generations cannot afford to have children. This is why the only way to keep the population from falling is to import massive numbers of unskilled, uneducated, and often criminal immigrants. Both parties are responsible for this: democrats for importing voters and republicans for importing farm laborers. Both parties want cheap labor.
When you import massive numbers of low-iq, low-skill workers, your per capital GDP declines relative to where it would have been otherwise. Yes, technological advancements mask this because technology increases GDP faster than low-skill immigration decreases it, but most of those gains don't get seen by the middle class.
Since both parties, and their corporate overlords, are benefiting from the current system, immigration will continue and housing prices will also continue to rise. I suppose I shouldn't care since I own and have a 2.25% mortgage that is being eaten away by inflation, but anyone young enough that they having bought already is fucked.