patrick.net

anon5525 says

And Gen Z is coming into the market as well despite not being able to afford it.

Demand means willing and able to buy. If GenZ cannot afford it as you say, it would indicate that GenZ buyers are teaming up with others to buy the home. Are you seeing that in your area?

anon5525 says

About half of Millennials have not bought a house yet. There are more Millennials now than Boomers.

You're assuming the Millennials are in the same fiscal shape as Boomers. They are not.

Boomers saw 3-4x median worker income for the Al Bundy special buiilt in the 1970s so far from downtown. Millennials are looking at 6-7x median worker income for an Al Bundy special built in the 1970s OR a similar sized newer house at a further distance OR a much smaller townhouse at the same distance. For now.

Boomers were married more often; Millennials are majority single. Millies have far fewer kids, but having 1 or None doesn't make up for the housing price to income disparity. Having 1.25 kids or being a dog mom instead of 2.5 kids doesn't make the house only cost 3-4x median income.

Agree with anon here. While I believe housing will not do great in the next years due to the high interest environment and continued downturn in CRE, there is no cliff or crash anywhere in sight. My prediction is prices will keep going up with inflation, but no more, maybe even slightly below.

https://youtu.be/3hGhlvA08pM?si=AW7l8RanvahQhirq

Doge won’t amount to shit… that statement is right imo.

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

Doge won’t amount to shit… that statement is right imo.

Some asshole on here will call me out on that IF ONE Doge recommendation actually gets implemented, I am sure.

What will most likely happen is that none do get enacted despite some tries. But instead, Vivek and Musk and Trump will spin something else as being DOGE -- like how the Inflation Reduction Act was never about inflation or reducing anything of the sort -- in order to fave face.

Still, I wouldn't mind being wrong about this.

anon5525 says

... because immigration will not go down.

you obviously are clueless as you do not know how illegal immigrants live like 4 illegals per bedroom

they pack them in like sardines within boarding houses for illegal immigrants

.

HeadSet says

Demand means willing and able to buy. If GenZ cannot afford it as you say, it would indicate that GenZ buyers are teaming up with others to buy the home. Are you seeing that in your area?

I wonder if this is Logan at Housing Wire that created this thread.

Good point Headset, as its all about price discovery and equilibrium price point.

This is a good article on Florida about how prices have gone up about 60% in last 5 years in Florida.

https://www.newsweek.com/florida-housing-market-facing-widespread-price-declines-2017199

The way I look at it is to go back 10 years and apply a 4% increase annually to the market value from 2014 to conservatively estimate the current market value.

Another way is to examine the peak price was in early 2022 when the 30 yr mortgage rate was 3% and now it is 7%.

Home prices should be 60% of peak price based on mortgage affordability with a 10% drop in price for every 1% increase in the 30 yr mortgage rate.

However, household income has gone up about 25% since early 2022.

0.60 x 1.25 = 0.75

So home prices should be no less than 75% of the peak price set in early 2022 if the 30 yr mortgage rate remains 7%.

I see FHA and VA mortgage rates are almost at 6% now. I'd buy down 4 discount points to lower that to 5%.

That would cost 4% of the mortgage but it is like lowering the price 10% when examining the mortgage payment.

.

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Houses are an instinctual purchase; men are motivated to buy them because a female instinctively wants to have a house and not an apartment.

She's got a "cave woman" instinct to need a cave of her own to raise her child in.

These feelings are deep and instinctive; men want pussy and women want a "cave" to move into.

I have had many dates and females asked me where I owned my house; when I said I rented they made comments. I don't care.

Other people come down to Baja Sur Mexico and buy condos and houses as "investments". They have a bunch of fees ($11,000 for a $150,000 place) and no way of making any actual money.

After I was at the point where I could put a million bucks into a checking account by moving a computer mouse, I didn't give a fuck how females thought about me being "just a renter."

I have never heard of a wildfire burning up a mutual fund account either.

clambo says

Houses are an instinctual purchase; men are motivated to buy them because a female instinctively wants to have a house and not an apartment.

She's got a "cave woman" instinct to need a cave of her own to raise her child in.

These feelings are deep and instinctive; men want pussy and women want a "cave" to move into.

I have had many dates and females asked me where I owned my house; when I said I rented they made comments. I don't care.

Other people come down to Baja Sur Mexico and buy condos and houses as "investments". They have a bunch of fees ($11,000 for a $150,000 place) and no way of making any actual money.

After I was at the point where I could put a million bucks into a checking account by moving a computer mouse, I didn't give a fuck how females thought about me being "just a renter."

I have never heard of a wildfire burning up a mutual fund account either.

Smart. And I'm saying this as a house owner. Unless you have kids and big family it's probably not necessary and you may be better off renting (also more mobile).

clambo says

I have had many dates and females asked me where I owned my house; when I said I rented they made comments. I don't care.

i had a girl at a party at my house once when i was about 21 yrs old...She asked me if I owned the house..I said: No, the banlk owns it and I just make payments on it. She walked away.......LOL

mell says

After I was at the point where I could put a million bucks into a checking account by moving a computer mouse, I didn't give a fuck how females thought about me being "just a renter."

Not upgrading your lifestyle when you get your first (and future) good job is the key to saving money until you reach your own FU money. This is freedom in the American sense.

Herewith another "Prince Harry" post, probably should be ignored, but here goes.

I'm renting a house near La Paz; the female owner inherited it, she's 45 and doesn't like working a shitty low paid job.

She said "I want to sell you my house. Several others say they want to buy it, but I want you to buy it. You can make me the beneficiary of the trust (in Mexico near the coast or border foreigners can't directly own property, so a trust owns it) and pay me just $100,000 (2 million pesos).
I said "how about you aren't the beneficiary and I pay 3 million pesos ($150,000), I may want to sell it someday."
"Who are these other people offering to buy your house?"
"My gay cousin; his boyfriend is rich. The neighbor from Monaco wants to pay 3,600,000 pesos ($180,000 USD).

"What will you do with the money?" I asked.
"I'll buy a couple of other houses nearby; I'll show them to you." We drove by them.
One was $50,000 (1 million pesos), the other much nicer $100,000 (2 million pesos).
"I'll rent them and live off the rental income; I want to be retired."

The person who can help make the transaction is a bilingual lawyer in La Paz; we can omit the "broker" or salesperson.
The fees included creating the trust, and a pretty high sales tax (in Mexico it's 16%).
So, my fees for buying the little house would be $11,000 USD.
Add to this my taxes for selling my annuity or mutual funds or whatever would be probably $18,000+
My total fees and taxes to both Mexico and US Treasury would be around $30,000 just to buy where I'm renting now.

What fees would she pay to buy the two other (one shitty) houses for $150,000?
Her fees would be about 114,000 pesos ($5700) for the shitty house, and 134,000 pesos ($6,700) for the nicer house.

For her to sell one house which I'm renting and buy two houses which she would rent out would cost us a combined $43,000 USD.

I asked her "So, how much would you be able to collect in rent for your two other houses?"
She didn't answer.
"What is the difference between renting me one house, and having two houses rented by others who may actually stop paying you?" (This happens in Mexico; renters have more rights than owners).

So, I proposed just paying her higher rent and doing nothing; she seemed very disappointed.

"So, have you actually seen the money that people have in an account to buy your house? Your cousin says his boyfriend will buy it, have you spoken to this boyfriend?"

"The neighbor from Monaco said he would trade his Porsche in addition to cash to buy the house."
(Monaco neighbor guy owns a very fancy Porsche, like the one Paul Walker crashed and died in.)

I started laughing: "So, nobody actually has shown you the fuckin money; they're talking about bartering a car to buy your house!"

My proposal was pay her higher rent and to prepay her a few months; this will put some money in her pocket.

She told me her previous (crazy, drinker, smoker, deceased, heart a tack ack ack) German boyfriend had paid the huge transaction fees about 6 times on properties he eventually sold. He also paid the lawyer lady $5,000 USD to assist him with applying for permanent residency in Mexico (I did this myself at the Miami Consulate and here in La Paz).

Moral: guys who can't do math and females (they never could) think renting sucks. I love renting.

mell says

Houses are an instinctual purchase; men are motivated to buy them because a female instinctively wants to have a house and not an apartment.

She's got a "cave woman" instinct to need a cave of her own to raise her child in.

These feelings are deep and instinctive; men want pussy and women want a "cave" to move into.

I have had many dates and females asked me where I owned my house; when I said I rented they made comments. I don't care.

Other people come down to Baja Sur Mexico and buy condos and houses as "investments". They have a bunch of fees ($11,000 for a $150,000 place) and no way of making any actual money.

After I was at the point where I could put a million bucks into a checking account by moving a computer mouse, I didn't give a fuck how females thought about me being "just a renter."

I have never heard of a wildfire burning up a mutual fund account either.

Would you interesting to hear wookieman's thoughts on this.

There are guys who also love houses; Brad Pitt and Nick Cage come to mind.

If I can't arrange to rent where I am for several years, I will likely want to buy a place too; I want to hang my paintings someplace, and use my Persian rugs and decorations, etc.

anon5525 says

Both parties are responsible for this: democrats for importing voters and republicans for importing farm laborers. Both parties want cheap labor.

Bullshit as far as cheap labor as a lot can be replaced by robots and machines even for very delicate and complicated harvest operations like for strawberries

https://advanced.farm/technology/strawberry-harvester/

I see robots cleaning the floors of hospital and hotels, and even Walmart now. And you all already had the pleasure of self check counters at Walmart, Publix, Winn Dixie, etc.

,

Not until SFH investors are forced to sell their SFH stock.
If that never happens, we will be like an Old Europe country where the nobility owns all of the land, and the masses just rent a flat.
With no hope of homeownership for the middle class. But even then this game can't keep playing out. I saw a crappy 3 bedroom house the other day. It wasn't even updated during the 2000's bubble. The investors that bought it, plan on renting it out for $4800 a month.

Really who in the hell can afford that? And those that can would consider it a $4800 shithole. There are much nicer places for that. Condos on the Beach in old buildings from the 50's are going for $6000 a month. It should be a $225K condo tops!

@AD Glad too see ya back. Been a while since you posted.

gabbar says

Would you interesting to hear wookieman's thoughts on this.

I bought an investment first. 2 flat in Chicago. With the future wife. Being a "man" and providing wasn't the going concern. I wanted an apartment for me and tenants could mostly pay the mortgage. That did not work out. We bought in 2006. We short sold it which is why I talk a lot about debt and people freaking out about it. Always a way out, don't freak or kill yourself.

Fact is you don't make major purchases for a woman, which includes a home or property of any kind. You do it for you. If you're single there's no point in being broke because you wanted a house thinking you'd get a chick. My job the last 10 years was to make my wife great at her job so I don't have to work. I succeeded. House had nothing to do with it and it shouldn't.

Now we're building a large house looking at the hole in the ground. She's happy, I'm happy. Point is don't do stuff to "get" women, work to lift them up. You'll have a mostly happy partner for life and can sit here on Patnet all day.... sometimes.

All of the other guys I know bought houses so they could keep their girlfriends or wives interested in them.

And I haven't been hallucinating the comments from females.

My favorite was just a couple of years ago: "You mean you don't own anything?"
"Just money."

clambo says

All of the other guys I know bought houses so they could keep their girlfriends or wives interested in them.

And I haven't been hallucinating the comments from females.

My favorite was just a couple of years ago: "You mean you don't own anything?"
"Just money."

Get the point, if those are the ladies you're encountering, you're in the wrong place. Run, don't walk from them.

My Mount Rushmore of Women are all millionaires. Women that I let seek ME out. I was an introvert. That drew attention to me. "Why isn't this guy attracted to me?" I just wouldn't talk to them because I was't that type of guy. I made the right pick at the end of the day, but I'd be well off either way. Looks and money wise. Being honest I was scared. The right one finally sold me on her. Deal with the family baggage but whatever. We're too busy so don't see them all that often.

I have never met a rich woman who actually had her own money.

clambo says

I have never met a rich woman who actually had her own money.

My uncle walked into a nice house owned by a womyn friend of his wife and said, "So. When was the divorce?".

Edit: He was summarily kicked out lol

clambo says

My favorite was just a couple of years ago: "You mean you don't own anything?"
"Just money."

You could have responded "Just you."

clambo says

I have never met a rich woman who actually had her own money.

I had a neighbor lady who was a surgeon and quite well off. She lived with the father of her kids but refused to marry him.

Another neighbor was a beautiful rich Italian widow who was a great cook (best lasagna ever). She also had a long term live in boyfriend she did not marry, despite both being evangelical Christians.

HeadSet says

clambo says

I have never met a rich woman who actually had her own money.

I had a neighbor lady who was a surgeon and quite well off. She lived with the father of her kids but refused to marry him.

Another neighbor was a beautiful rich Italian widow who was a great cook (best lasagna ever). She also had a long term live in boyfriend she did not marry, despite both being evangelical Christians.

.

As far as housing economics it all comes down to Patrick K's book Housing Trap and his 20/20 interview (which I recall watching the original broadcast).

And beyond economics, it comes down to psychological reasons and other factors like if you have family that visit or live with you.

If you run a home based business that needs a garage then it may be better (for economic reasons and other reasons) to own the home then lease a commercial space.

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WookieMan says

My job the last 10 years was to make my wife great at her job so I don't have to work. I succeeded. House had nothing to do with it and it shouldn't.

Good for you, you are a good team, as all families should be.

Given the global cryptocurrency market cap today is $3.7 Trillion backed by nothing!
It’s hard to imagine that the real assets value will go down!

Ess Eff Bay Area seasonal decline started in June (which is early, and not a good sign...)

EBGuy says

Ess Eff Bay Area seasonal decline started in June (which is early, and not a good sign...)

CA is gonna have a rough go of it, especially after the fires. Those not effected probably won't notice much. Just the slow outflow of 1-2 families a day. 20-30% of properties from the fires they're out. Gone. Straw that broke the camels back.

clambo says

I have never met a rich woman who actually had her own money.

I have.

WookieMan says

Gone. Straw that broke the camels back.

We'll see. We could use a stampede out of here. It's too crowded which makes it too expensive.

But what you say, they said that after:

the Loma Prieta Quake,
Oakland Hills Fire,
Northridge Quake,
Dot Com Collapse.

We'll see.

WookieMan says

CA is gonna have a rough go of it, especially after the fires. Those not effected probably won't notice much. Just the slow outflow of 1-2 families a day. 20-30% of properties from the fires they're out. Gone. Straw that broke the camels back.

how many homes lost in the LA fires ? about 30K ? figure all 30K households (plus another 20K of scaredy cats who think its not worthwhile to live in California anymore) decide to leave the state for Arizona, Nevada, Utah, Oregon, Colorado and New Mexico. Still won't have that much of a big impact as far as migration out of California.

AD says

WookieMan says

CA is gonna have a rough go of it, especially after the fires. Those not effected probably won't notice much. Just the slow outflow of 1-2 families a day. 20-30% of properties from the fires they're out. Gone. Straw that broke the camels back.

how many homes lost in the LA fires ? about 30K ? figure all 30K households (plus another 20K of scaredy cats who think its not worthwhile to live in California anymore) decide to leave the state for Arizona, Nevada, Utah, Oregon, Colorado and New Mexico. Still won't have that much of a big impact as far as migration out of California.

How about L.A.? Will it have a big impact on L.A.? Even L.A. itself very little? But Pacific Palisades? Oh yeah.

B.A.C.A.H. says

We'll see. We could use a stampede out of here. It's too crowded which makes it too expensive.

But what you say, they said that after:

the Loma Prieta Quake,
Oakland Hills Fire,
Northridge Quake,
Dot Com Collapse.

We'll see.

Not wrong but I think people will move on is all. Everything will get rebuilt, but it's going to take years. Getting 10-20K building permits and having the labor is impossible in quick fashion. It's taken me two years to get a hole in the ground and that's with 6 other houses being built, not 20k.

AD says

how many homes lost in the LA fires ? about 30K ? figure all 30K households (plus another 20K of scaredy cats who think its not worthwhile to live in California anymore) decide to leave the state for Arizona, Nevada, Utah, Oregon, Colorado and New Mexico. Still won't have that much of a big impact as far as migration out of California.

Not about population. It's a massive hit to the tax base. These aren't poor people. If they're smart taxes will be appealed and property tax revenues dry up. Or they move and income tax for high earners goes away. Try not having a home for 2-3 years. It will happen again. A lot are just going to move.

Entire neighborhoods in central NC are Cognizant H1B scammers and their families.

Guess what happens to housing prices there if entire neighborhoods are deported?

They go down. A lot.
https://x.com/Oilfield_Rando/status/1881848216876114067

One major H1B reform would be to require businesses to hire H1Bs direct, banning all agencies or consulting companies.

IE IBM or Microsoft has to hire Raj directly from Mumbai and CANNOT use a service.

One thing they do in Scandinavia is send resumes from local unemployment agencies to businesses requesting Tech visas.

Companies must publish requirements in advance, review ALL resumes from the unemployment agency, and resume-by-resume reject them. They get "Two Free" rejections then must explain in 1000 word essays why they didn't hire them DESPITE them meeting the requirements, paying a fee on top of that.