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689
Misc
2026 Jan 24, 6:19pm
Case/Shiller comes out Tuesday. Even a rise of only three tenths would put it at a new record high taking out last summer's record.
690
Misc
2026 Jan 24, 6:24pm
HeadSet says
With a 20% down, it pencils out at 5% with a combined income of $110k.
Case/Shiller comes out Tuesday. If I remember right it only takes a 3 tenths increase for a new record high, taking out last summer's.
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says
1-2 adult households making $50-60k each can't and shouldn't buy $420k houses, whether the rate is 3.5% or 7%
Correct.
With a 20% down, it pencils out at 5% with a combined income of $110k.
Case/Shiller comes out Tuesday. If I remember right it only takes a 3 tenths increase for a new record high, taking out last summer's.
691
HeadSet
2026 Jan 24, 6:34pm
HeadSet
2026 Jan 24, 6:34pm
Misc says
True, but it seems he was implying a house with a $420k mortgage.
With a 20% down, it pencils out at 5% with a combined income of $110k.
True, but it seems he was implying a house with a $420k mortgage.
692
Misc
2026 Jan 24, 6:40pm
HeadSet says
Not really $428k is the median US home price. I think he was shooting for that.
Misc says
With a 20% down, it pencils out at 5% with a combined income of $110k.
True, but it seems he was implying a house with a $420k mortgage.
Not really $428k is the median US home price. I think he was shooting for that.
693
AD
2026 Jan 24, 9:25pm
AD
2026 Jan 24, 9:25pm
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says
Home prices need to come down at least 20% from the recent all time high price, which would place it around early summer 2021 price level.
Or home prices and rents hold steady for at least next 4 years while household income increases 3% annually.
All tilting at the windmills, because the problem ain't rates which are postwar average, it's the price.
Home prices need to come down at least 20% from the recent all time high price, which would place it around early summer 2021 price level.
Or home prices and rents hold steady for at least next 4 years while household income increases 3% annually.
694
AD
2026 Jan 24, 9:28pm
AD
2026 Jan 24, 9:28pm
Misc says
This stock expectedly has fared poorly since the housing boom, even with its generous dividend.
Wall Street is no longer acquiring SFHs to rent out.
This stock expectedly has fared poorly since the housing boom, even with its generous dividend.
695
Patrick
2026 Jan 24, 10:12pm
Patrick
2026 Jan 24, 10:12pm
Booger says
You can tell they are in there by the number of cars on the street.
Wife and I ate at this excellent empañada place in Redwood City today:
https://elsursf.com/
The problem was parking. It's a poor area where every house is completely packed to the gills with illegals, so finding a parking place on the street is very hard.
When you are putting 10-12 adults to a house, they don't have to be rich.
You can tell they are in there by the number of cars on the street.
Wife and I ate at this excellent empañada place in Redwood City today:
https://elsursf.com/
The problem was parking. It's a poor area where every house is completely packed to the gills with illegals, so finding a parking place on the street is very hard.
696
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter
2026 Jan 24, 11:03pm
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter
2026 Jan 24, 11:03pm
HeadSet says
Yes.
Misc says
Both.
How many 30-year olds with 3-5 years experience in their "Real Job" have $80k in cash on hand without wealthy parents bankrolling? Then figure mid range cars at $40k, used cars reliable enough for daily commute are not yet a deal at $20-30k (5-7 years old with well over 60k miles on them), student loans, and the absence of hiring in the senior year of college. These days people don't find that 'entry level' job in their field for several years after graduation.
True, but it seems he was implying a house with a $420k mortgage.
Yes.
Misc says
Not really $428k is the median US home price. I think he was shooting for that.
Both.
How many 30-year olds with 3-5 years experience in their "Real Job" have $80k in cash on hand without wealthy parents bankrolling? Then figure mid range cars at $40k, used cars reliable enough for daily commute are not yet a deal at $20-30k (5-7 years old with well over 60k miles on them), student loans, and the absence of hiring in the senior year of college. These days people don't find that 'entry level' job in their field for several years after graduation.
698
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter
2026 Jan 24, 11:19pm
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter
2026 Jan 24, 11:19pm
Just looked at some used cars for fun, they are definitely better than 6 months ago when I last browsed, a good 20% cheaper. Still over $20k if you want a car that isn't about a decade old and not driven for Uber or a long commute for many years.
I'm also seeing some Greatest (Silent?) Ranches that need some upgrades but not half-burned husks from a crack fire under $200k.
Nature is healing slowly.
I'm also seeing some Greatest (Silent?) Ranches that need some upgrades but not half-burned husks from a crack fire under $200k.
Nature is healing slowly.
699
HeadSet
2026 Jan 25, 9:19am
HeadSet
2026 Jan 25, 9:19am
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says
Around here, the trade-in value for a 2018 loaded Pathfinder with 100k miles is about $4k. Lots of life left on a car like that, with maybe a tuneup and a belt change due.
Still over $20k if you want a car that isn't about a decade old and not driven for Uber or a long commute for many years.
Around here, the trade-in value for a 2018 loaded Pathfinder with 100k miles is about $4k. Lots of life left on a car like that, with maybe a tuneup and a belt change due.
700
FortWayneHatesRealtors
2026 Jan 25, 9:23am
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says
Investors who were giving out used car loans imploded. That’s why it’s going down to market.
As long as government doesn’t step in to save bad debt, it’ll be at market rate instead of inflated government rate.
Just looked at some used cars for fun, they are definitely better than 6 months ago when I last browsed, a good 20% cheaper. Still over $20k if you want a car that isn't about a decade old and not driven for Uber or a long commute for many years.
I'm also seeing some Greatest (Silent?) Ranches that need some upgrades but not half-burned husks from a crack fire under $200k.
Nature is healing slowly.
Investors who were giving out used car loans imploded. That’s why it’s going down to market.
As long as government doesn’t step in to save bad debt, it’ll be at market rate instead of inflated government rate.
701
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter
2026 Jan 25, 1:09pm
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter
2026 Jan 25, 1:09pm
HeadSet says
Dealerships don't want used cars now, hence the low price.
There's a guy on Youtube who sells Jalopies and discusses how two years ago he couldn't find anything to fix and sell because the prices were too high. Now dealers are stuck with lots of overpriced vehicles and EVs that won't sell, and don't want to add used cars to the lot, so the prices are better.
Replacing private Dealerships with corporate service-demo centers would be amazing for America.
the trade-in value for a 2018 loaded Pathfinder with 100k miles is about $4k
Dealerships don't want used cars now, hence the low price.
There's a guy on Youtube who sells Jalopies and discusses how two years ago he couldn't find anything to fix and sell because the prices were too high. Now dealers are stuck with lots of overpriced vehicles and EVs that won't sell, and don't want to add used cars to the lot, so the prices are better.
Replacing private Dealerships with corporate service-demo centers would be amazing for America.
704
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter
2026 Jan 26, 7:36pm
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter
2026 Jan 26, 7:36pm
Correct. However, both Europe and USA, Boomers had a great stock market and R/E run for 40 years.
Isn't there some old crooner song that goes like:
"If they didn't make money by now
They will never never make money"
Residential could drop 25% and most of them still made money except for a few who decided to buy a primary residence 2020-2023
Isn't there some old crooner song that goes like:
"If they didn't make money by now
They will never never make money"
Residential could drop 25% and most of them still made money except for a few who decided to buy a primary residence 2020-2023
705
ForcedTQ
2026 Jan 26, 10:54pm
Patrick says
Because these evil fucks keep screwing with the value of the currency that we trade/get paid with and most generally are forced to transact in…. Sound money our currency is not, and impediments aplenty are heaped upon the population to keep us from using it….
https://x.com/BoringBiz_/status/2014540092891701680
Because these evil fucks keep screwing with the value of the currency that we trade/get paid with and most generally are forced to transact in…. Sound money our currency is not, and impediments aplenty are heaped upon the population to keep us from using it….
706
Misc
2026 Jan 27, 7:09pm
Sorry Housing Doomers. Case/Shiller came out today and was up .4 basis points. That put it at a new all time high; taking out the high that was reached last summer.
Still the year over year increase was less than the CPI. Fannie/Freddie, Wells Fargo etc. are all forecasting an increase of about 1.5-2% for 2026 housing on a nationwide basis.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA
Still the year over year increase was less than the CPI. Fannie/Freddie, Wells Fargo etc. are all forecasting an increase of about 1.5-2% for 2026 housing on a nationwide basis.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA
707
FortWayneHatesRealtors
2026 Jan 27, 7:12pm
It's what I said, Trump will keep on bailing out the prices (Tulips of our generation). I want some credit for being right.
708
stereotomy
2026 Jan 27, 7:25pm
stereotomy
2026 Jan 27, 7:25pm
Misc says
They're really fucking the younger generations for the sake of the boomerfucks and their precious home values. Fine, they're tanking the dollar - gold is up from $4520 to $5240 in the last month (16% MoM increase).
Sorry Housing Doomers. Case/Shiller came out today and was up .4 basis points. That put it at a new all time high; taking out the high that was reached last summer.
Still the year over year increase was less than the CPI. Fannie/Freddie, Wells Fargo etc. are all forecasting an increase of about 1.5-2% for 2026 housing on a nationwide basis.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA
They're really fucking the younger generations for the sake of the boomerfucks and their precious home values. Fine, they're tanking the dollar - gold is up from $4520 to $5240 in the last month (16% MoM increase).
709
MolotovCocktail
2026 Jan 27, 7:47pm
MolotovCocktail
2026 Jan 27, 7:47pm
Misc says
Of course they are.
They have to.
Sorry Housing Doomers. Case/Shiller came out today and was up .4 basis points. That put it at a new all time high; taking out the high that was reached last summer.
Still the year over year increase was less than the CPI. Fannie/Freddie, Wells Fargo etc. are all forecasting an increase of about 1.5-2% for 2026 housing on a nationwide basis.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA
Of course they are.
They have to.
710
MolotovCocktail
2026 Jan 27, 7:49pm
MolotovCocktail
2026 Jan 27, 7:49pm
FortWayneHatesRealtors says
Nope.
Government cannot keep propping it up. Just extend & pretend as much as possible.
All they can do 100% for certain is print money to bail put RE owner losses. That's it.
Demographics rules all.
https://patrick.net/comment?comment_id=2242651
It's what I said, Trump will keep on bailing out the prices (Tulips of our generation). I want some credit for being right.
Nope.
Government cannot keep propping it up. Just extend & pretend as much as possible.
All they can do 100% for certain is print money to bail put RE owner losses. That's it.
Demographics rules all.
https://patrick.net/comment?comment_id=2242651
711
AD
2026 Jan 27, 8:38pm
AD
2026 Jan 27, 8:38pm
MolotovCocktail says
Wolfman at Wolf Street website has a great article today on population and demographics.
Panama City and Bay County is adjusting its economy especially housing market for this, such as it adjusting for an end of baby boomer migration to Florida and it is diversifying the economy away from tourism.
My guess is some towns and cities will become more ghost towns as old real estate will not be refurbished and will be abandoned due to lack of demand.
Demographics rules all.
Wolfman at Wolf Street website has a great article today on population and demographics.
Panama City and Bay County is adjusting its economy especially housing market for this, such as it adjusting for an end of baby boomer migration to Florida and it is diversifying the economy away from tourism.
My guess is some towns and cities will become more ghost towns as old real estate will not be refurbished and will be abandoned due to lack of demand.
712
ForcedTQ
2026 Jan 27, 9:45pm
AD says
Some areas are going to become like Japan….
MolotovCocktail says
Demographics rules all.
Wolfman at Wolf Street website has a great article today on population and demographics.
Panama City and Bay County is adjusting its economy especially housing market for this, such as it adjusting for an end of baby boomer migration to Florida and it is diversifying the economy away from tourism.
My guess is some towns and cities will become more ghost towns as old real estate will not be refurbished and will be abandoned due to lack of demand.
Some areas are going to become like Japan….
713
FortWayneHatesRealtors
2026 Jan 28, 4:22am
MolotovCocktail says
Demographics? Ha! They'll mass import Nigerians if they have to. Those people in power don't give a damn about anything else except their portfolios.
You see my friend, Jesus commanded us to build our house on a rock, that was his command. Foundation has to be faith in God. It's the only way. Instead, we decided to build it on exact opposite, on sin, on greed. And that is why problems only get worse, national debt gets bigger, fraud only grows, and Congress only spends more, and prices only go up. We are ruled by sin. And when we are ruled by sin, you can only expect it to get worse. An alcoholic has to hit rock bottom before clarity sets in and he realizes he needs to stop. Same with America. I don't think we will get out of our sin unless we hit rock bottom and won't have a choice but to pivot.
FortWayneHatesRealtors says
It's what I said, Trump will keep on bailing out the prices (Tulips of our generation). I want some credit for being right.
Nope.
Government cannot keep propping it up. Just extend & pretend as much as possible.
All they can do 100% for certain is print money to bail put RE owner losses. That's it.
Demographics rules all.
https://patrick.net/comment?comment_id=2242651
Demographics? Ha! They'll mass import Nigerians if they have to. Those people in power don't give a damn about anything else except their portfolios.
You see my friend, Jesus commanded us to build our house on a rock, that was his command. Foundation has to be faith in God. It's the only way. Instead, we decided to build it on exact opposite, on sin, on greed. And that is why problems only get worse, national debt gets bigger, fraud only grows, and Congress only spends more, and prices only go up. We are ruled by sin. And when we are ruled by sin, you can only expect it to get worse. An alcoholic has to hit rock bottom before clarity sets in and he realizes he needs to stop. Same with America. I don't think we will get out of our sin unless we hit rock bottom and won't have a choice but to pivot.
714
PeopleUnited
2026 Jan 28, 6:08am
PeopleUnited
2026 Jan 28, 6:08am
FortWayneHatesRealtors says
And never underestimate how long it can take for someone to reach rock bottom. Sadly many die before realizing and repenting of their sin.
Same with America. I don't think we will get out of our sin unless we hit rock bottom and won't have a choice but to pivot.
And never underestimate how long it can take for someone to reach rock bottom. Sadly many die before realizing and repenting of their sin.
715
FortWayneHatesRealtors
2026 Jan 28, 6:20am
PeopleUnited says
Much agreed. What do you think it is that's keeping us from Him? Self-sufficiency? Pride? Something else?
FortWayneHatesRealtors says
Same with America. I don't think we will get out of our sin unless we hit rock bottom and won't have a choice but to pivot.
And never underestimate how long it can take for someone to reach rock bottom. Sadly many die before realizing and repenting of their sin.
Much agreed. What do you think it is that's keeping us from Him? Self-sufficiency? Pride? Something else?
716
MolotovCocktail
2026 Jan 28, 9:40am
MolotovCocktail
2026 Jan 28, 9:40am
AD says
Yup. I posted it on the Demographics Thread.
https://patrick.net/post/1346755?start=2242651#comment-2242651
Wolfman at Wolf Street website has a great article today on population and demographics.
Yup. I posted it on the Demographics Thread.
https://patrick.net/post/1346755?start=2242651#comment-2242651
717
MolotovCocktail
2026 Jan 28, 9:41am
MolotovCocktail
2026 Jan 28, 9:41am
FortWayneHatesRealtors says
Nope. There's a limit to how much they have to do that. See Canada.
All you are doing is engaging in hopium.
Demographics? Ha! They'll mass import Nigerians if they have to.
Nope. There's a limit to how much they have to do that. See Canada.
All you are doing is engaging in hopium.
718
FortWayneHatesRealtors
2026 Jan 28, 11:49am
MolotovCocktail says
Hopium? I could care less if it drops. I just don’t think it will, government will do whatever it takes.
FortWayneHatesRealtors says
Demographics? Ha! They'll mass import Nigerians if they have to.
Nope. There's a limit to how much they have to do that. See Canada.
All you are doing is engaging in hopium.
Hopium? I could care less if it drops. I just don’t think it will, government will do whatever it takes.
« First « Previous Comments 689 - 718 of 718 Search these comments
So the only way to decrease real prices is to decrease demand, and the only way to do that is to kick out all illegal immigrants and anchor babies. Will Trump do this? Almost certainly not. Even with control over all three branches of the government, the Republicans are not going to get rid of all the illegals who are driving up housing prices and social welfare costs. I wish that I was wrong about this, but I'm not.
The United States population reached 200 million on November 20, 1967. If there was no net migration, then the U.S. population have stabilized to about 220 million. Instead, the population is 335 million. This is why housing is so expensive. This is why rent is so damn high. This is why the younger generations cannot afford to have children. This is why the only way to keep the population from falling is to import massive numbers of unskilled, uneducated, and often criminal immigrants. Both parties are responsible for this: democrats for importing voters and republicans for importing farm laborers. Both parties want cheap labor.
When you import massive numbers of low-iq, low-skill workers, your per capital GDP declines relative to where it would have been otherwise. Yes, technological advancements mask this because technology increases GDP faster than low-skill immigration decreases it, but most of those gains don't get seen by the middle class.
Since both parties, and their corporate overlords, are benefiting from the current system, immigration will continue and housing prices will also continue to rise. I suppose I shouldn't care since I own and have a 2.25% mortgage that is being eaten away by inflation, but anyone young enough that they having bought already is fucked.