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Housing prices will not go down...


               
2025 Jan 2, 7:23pm   22,009 views  606 comments

by anon5525   follow (0)  

... because immigration will not go down. Housing prices are controlled by supply and demand. There is no space in any urban area to build more housing. None. You can't insert land between two streets. The only way to increase supply is to steal people's homes through eminent domain and tear them down to build higher density apartments

So the only way to decrease real prices is to decrease demand, and the only way to do that is to kick out all illegal immigrants and anchor babies. Will Trump do this? Almost certainly not. Even with control over all three branches of the government, the Republicans are not going to get rid of all the illegals who are driving up housing prices and social welfare costs. I wish that I was wrong about this, but I'm not.

The United States population reached 200 million on November 20, 1967. If there was no net migration, then the U.S. population have stabilized to about 220 million. Instead, the population is 335 million. This is why housing is so expensive. This is why rent is so damn high. This is why the younger generations cannot afford to have children. This is why the only way to keep the population from falling is to import massive numbers of unskilled, uneducated, and often criminal immigrants. Both parties are responsible for this: democrats for importing voters and republicans for importing farm laborers. Both parties want cheap labor.

When you import massive numbers of low-iq, low-skill workers, your per capital GDP declines relative to where it would have been otherwise. Yes, technological advancements mask this because technology increases GDP faster than low-skill immigration decreases it, but most of those gains don't get seen by the middle class.

Since both parties, and their corporate overlords, are benefiting from the current system, immigration will continue and housing prices will also continue to rise. I suppose I shouldn't care since I own and have a 2.25% mortgage that is being eaten away by inflation, but anyone young enough that they having bought already is fucked.

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241   HeadSet   2025 Aug 16, 8:42am  

Misc says

43% of the population of DC is Black. -- That's a lot of poor

Only about 20% of the Blacks in DC are poor.
242   WookieMan   2025 Aug 16, 8:58am  

MolotovCocktail says

That is the real reason you are pissed at me.

Lol. This is your best??? I just respond here, you don't take up 1/1,000th of my head space.

MolotovCocktail says

I find all the 'plot holes' in your crap. Rather easy to do. The rest you do for me by yourself. Esp the magical thinking.

List plot holes. Fact is you don't know real estate. That's okay. A lot of people came here when it was a real estate site and then thought they were self educated. They didn't work in real estate and don't know shit. Even those that don't know what they talking about at least provide data as much as they can. You don't.

You've never given links or a semi educated opinion about real estate. Just everyone is wrong. Great commentary. Been going on for years. How is it working out for you? Not so good by the data.... oh wait, you have none. lol.
243   MolotovCocktail   2025 Aug 16, 9:20am  

WookieMan says


List plot holes


I referred to the national median?

Dozens more. But why bother? We all know how you react when called out on your BS.

WookieMan says


Fact is you don't know real estate.


All the so called Housing Experts of PatNet would say that also when I pressed them on their bullshit. Deflection.

WookieMan says


You don't.


Yes I have. All the while you imaging shit up in your head and presenting it as 'fact'.

WookieMan says


You've never given links or a semi educated opinion about real estate.


Wrong again. More magical thinking reaction to assuage your cognitive dissonance.

WookieMan says


Just everyone is wrong.


You mean 'you' are wrong. You have demonstrated that you don't give a damn about others.

WookieMan says


How is it working out for you


Pretty good. Being proven right does that.
244   MolotovCocktail   2025 Aug 16, 4:40pm  

Someone should tell him its only in 'hipster', coastal cities, tho.


245   MolotovCocktail   2025 Aug 16, 5:16pm  

MolotovCocktail says

Someone should tell him its only in 'hipster', coastal cities, tho.






246   AD   2025 Aug 16, 5:48pm  

MolotovCocktail says

Someone should tell him its only in 'hipster', coastal cities, tho.


Something has to give, boy

At 6.5% rate for a 30 year mortgage, home prices have to stay flat while household income has to increase 4% annually for next 5 years to approach some level of housing affordability

I see that here in Panama City Beach and Florida panhandle as the local economic alliance group whom I'm a member have shown the local stats as far as that being the case since 2022 with housing prices at least frozen locally while household income surveys show about a 5% annual increase from 2022 to present day

.
248   MolotovCocktail   2025 Aug 16, 9:17pm  

AD says

MolotovCocktail says


Someone should tell him its only in 'hipster', coastal cities, tho.


Something has to give, boy

At 6.5% rate for a 30 year mortgage, home prices have to stay flat while household income has to increase 4% annually for next 5 years to approach some level of housing affordability

I see that here in Panama City Beach and Florida panhandle as the local economic alliance group whom I'm a member have shown the local stats as far as that being the case since 2022 with housing prices at least frozen locally while household income surveys show about a 5% annual increase from 2022 to present day

.


Household income surveys.

Ooookkkkkaaaaayyy. Hipsters?
249   AD   2025 Aug 16, 9:44pm  

MolotovCocktail says

Household income surveys.

Ooookkkkkaaaaayyy. Hipsters?


I get what you are saying, boy

You are saying there has been an influx to Bay County, Florida like "hipsters" and "young Professionals" flocking to the "new and hip downtown historic St Andrews and Panama City art district"

And you think that is skewing the socioeconomic data like local household income ?

I can talk about "working class" as far as "hospitality, service, and manufacturing" workers that live in our townhome HOA, some work at Eastern Shipyard (which got big contracts to build Washington State ferry boats and Army Corps of Engineers ship) and some work at Pier Park in retail, as well as medical industry like front desk and file clerk jobs

I can tell you that the "working class" have seen improvement in wages while rent has remained flat around $2000 for a 3 bedroom townhome on the beach, and $1750 in Panama City downtown ; the most disadvantaged are the retail workers (not the shipyard and healthcare workers) and the retail workers seem to be faring at least a little better from what I've learned just in my HOA as far as those sharing a 3 bedroom townhome

.
250   WookieMan   2025 Aug 16, 10:36pm  

MolotovCocktail says

Someone should tell him its only in 'hipster', coastal cities, tho.




You post a graph of inventory rates from 18 years ago....? as a comparison. Literally ended a world war and a new one began in that time frame. The world changed dramatically in that time frame. People were still riding horses and living in hand built cabins/farmsteads during WWI.

Look where the inventory is on a map. Look who is moving out of those places. Look at demographics and population. Deportation is only going to influence the rental market for the most part as illegals generally didn't own. Yes landlords might be forced to sell in those areas as illegals leave. California is coastal and that's where the damage to housing will occur due to high taxes and forced/self deportation. Most you guys want that. I don't get the push back. The rest of the country is not CA.

Places like Denver, Vegas and Phoenix have always overbuilt and that adds to inventory. Now their prices are dropping. Phoenix and Vegas still being borderline coastal cities with weekend drives to the beach. Nashville is kind of like that but has a high floor on price drops. Central location East of the Mississippi being the biggie. 7 hour drive to the major cities and beaches. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern_United_States (wiki but whatever).

You refuse to answer what cities you've been to. That 100% matters. You refuse to answer any questions. You post images without the data. When there is data it's shit.



The trend line shows what looks like population growth. So yes, there are going to be more houses for sale. Doesn't mean they're not selling, just means there are more houses that can possibly hit the market.
251   WookieMan   2025 Aug 16, 10:42pm  

The shit data is also only new single family homes. What it says is new builds are weak to me or inline with the demographic changes of having families later in life and after a 8 year house bust recovery and then covid.

You're living in 2012-13. Most the country is living in the other years. Get over it that you didn't buy. Haven't been to most of the major markets and looked at homes and the cities themselves. AKA talking out your ass. You can't even fake back it up.
252   MolotovCocktail   2025 Aug 17, 5:04pm  

AD says

You are saying there has been an influx to Bay County, Florida like "hipsters" and "young Professionals" flocking to the "new and hip downtown historic St Andrews and Panama City art district"


No. The 'hipster' thing is WookieMan's bullshit that I was referring to.

Pay attention, boy.
253   MolotovCocktail   2025 Aug 17, 5:06pm  

WookieMan says

You refuse to answer what cities you've been to.


Why, it doesn't address the made up bullshit in your head that you keep insisting should be accepted as fact by the rest of us.
254   MolotovCocktail   2025 Aug 17, 5:08pm  

WookieMan says


Get over it that you didn't buy.


See? Made up bullshit in his head. Along with others.

You still want to die on Wookie's Hallucination Hill, @AD ?

Because this is what you are doing. Not sure you are paying attention to the REAL conversation going on here. You might want to scroll back or just bail on this.
255   MolotovCocktail   2025 Aug 17, 5:11pm  

WookieMan says


You post a graph of inventory rates from 18 years ago....? as a comparison


Yes. Because it reflects how fucking bad things are now.

But you can not possibly accept that. Hence the long winded bullshit paragraphs.

You are ONLY an 'expert' in your head, it seems.
256   WookieMan   2025 Aug 17, 5:56pm  

MolotovCocktail says

Yes. Because it reflects how fucking bad things are now.

How fucking bad are things? Did population not grow? Did more homes not get built in cities like Denver, Austin, Boise, Nashville, etc? I put a line on there for you for a reason. We're at typical NEW home inventory since 1965. The graph looks like a hockey stick because of the housing bust. We're right where we need to be.

Also your own graph says NEW homes for sale. Fun fact, maybe they'll sell as Millennials are in family formation and most of them are moving to the suburbs or rural. You can't sell a new house if you don't put it on the market. What builder puts a house on the market not wanting to sell it?

More population. Backlog of NOT building. You've given no logical analysis of your point. Younger people make a lot more money than you think. Outside of CA, or say Jackson, WY or Scottsdale, most young professionals are in the 3x to worst case 5x income to price. It's not doomsday dude. Only in pockets and even in those pockets the owners can take the beating because they have wealth.
257   MolotovCocktail   2025 Aug 17, 5:59pm  

WookieMan says

How fucking bad are things?


Wow! There it is, everyone. More proof he engages in magical thinking.

It's amazing EXCEPT when you all realize we have been enabling him do so. Myself included. Just sad.
258   WookieMan   2025 Aug 17, 6:18pm  

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says


How fucking bad are things?


Wow! There it is, everyone. More proof he engages in magical thinking.

It's amazing EXCEPT when you all realize we have been enabling him do so. Myself included. Just sad.

No question answered. Hard to have a conversation with someone that doesn't answer basic stuff. I don't know anyone doing bad. Job or housing wise. Name something? I showed in the graph the trend line is totally fine with population growth. You didn't even counter that.
259   MolotovCocktail   2025 Aug 17, 6:42pm  

WookieMan says


No question answered. Hard to have a conversation with someone that doesn't answer basic stuff.


Cut the bullshit.

There's the conversation going on here...and that which is going on entirely or at least mostly in your head. You demonstrate this over and over. You can talk a good game that fools ppl most of the time. But as you keep it up, you let things slip out that clearly ahows you are definitely having some sort of imaginary conversation in part or full, instead.
261   AD   2025 Aug 17, 6:59pm  

MolotovCocktail says

No. The 'hipster' thing is WookieMan's bullshit that I was referring to.

Pay attention, boy.


Hipsters are hipsters, no matter who says hipsters, boy

.
262   AD   2025 Aug 17, 7:05pm  

WookieMan says

most young professionals are in the 3x to worst case 5x income to price


Demographics determines economics as Ken Gronbach (frequent guest on Coast to Coast AM) says

Bay County and Panama City are trying to bring in "young professionals

But I think the Work From Home craze is over, and many are being called back to work such as at AT&T, Apple, IBM, etc.

So they are trying to bring in an electric boat manufacturing company (about 3000 jobs) and an aerospace company (about 500 jobs) after successfully bringing in companies like an electric equipment company, an industrial laundry company, healthcare software company, etc

and the last batch of Baby Boomers moving to Bay County likely is in the next 3 years

.
263   WookieMan   2025 Aug 17, 7:09pm  

WookieMan says

No question answered. Hard to have a conversation with someone that doesn't answer basic stuff.

I'll dumb it down. Have you ever been to Denver? Yes or no?

I've answered everything you asked. You just move the goal posts constantly. I've consistently said coast and cities, some of which are hipster type where people move because they think it's cool. That trend will flare out at some point and they will lose value on homes and rents.

You've literally said nothing in this back and forth beside just argue. You literally just posted a graph that shows with population growth the number of new homes for sale is normal. What was your point? And that's just it, you don't know and don't have one.

Stick to the big boob pics thread or whatever it is. I blocked it. I'm not 14. You clearly know nothing about real estate. Just stay in your lane.
264   MolotovCocktail   2025 Aug 17, 7:30pm  

AD says

Hipsters are hipsters, no matter who says hipsters, boy


Nope. Wookie has his own definition for that.
265   MolotovCocktail   2025 Aug 17, 7:49pm  

WookieMan says


I've answered everything you asked


You've hallucinated that you do. What exactly in your mind have I asked you?

Well other than questions like, "WTF? When did I ever say [whatever he claims I did]?"

Please tell us what you have imagined up. We need a good laugh.

WookieMan says


I've consistently said coast and cities, some of which are hipster type where people move because they think it's cool.


Paying attention @AD? Hipsters!

WookieMan says


You've literally said nothing in this back and forth beside just argue


How can I say nothing AND 'just argue'? That is impossible to do.

And somehow magically refer to the national median-or-whatever home prices when I never did...and you later admitted you just dreamed it up that I did?

WookieMan says


You clearly know nothing about real estate.


Annnnd his typical fallback at the end.

AD just says "boy".

Our self-declared resident Housing Experts of PatNet say they know their shit and anyone who calls them out on it, well...are not.

Everything else...what has been the track record of our Housing Experts of PatNet been, exactly?

FUCKING WRONG

About the market?

FUCKING WRONG

About mortgage rates? Fed cuts? Results of which?

FUCKING WRONG

I even have a meme I created years ago that I think I've posted in response to their fucking wrong bullshit like ten times already. Best Meme-Utility Ratio, ever.



Now...there's nothing wrong with being wrong. The problem is that they can't admit that they just may be full of shit. Just may!

With Wookie, this problem is so bad...so much of a threat to his worldview that he LITERALLY MAKES SHIT UP. In his mind at first, and then that forms the basis of what he posts here or he writes it directly. It's so bad he outright lies about what others wrote or didn't write.

Then when he gets caught, it's all bullshit after that in a lame attempt to cover his ass. And when I don't back off its ad hominems about shit totally unrelated or just some really strange shit.

And when that doesn't work it's 'I am a R/E expert and you aren't' by declared Royal Proclamation by His Expertness, as I stated in the above.

It's like 'debating' with a Global Warming 'scientist'.

AD, you aren't like Wookie. But by hitching your wagon to his crazy talk you aren't doing yourself any favors.
266   MolotovCocktail   2025 Aug 17, 8:24pm  

WookieMan says

Stick to the big boob pics thread or whatever it is. I blocked it.


So if he blocked it...then why his obsession over it?

This is like the third or so comment like this he's made to me since he first told us all he blocked that thread shortly after Patrick provided us with that function. I expect there will be more because...I live rent-free in @WookieMan s head.
267   AD   2025 Aug 17, 8:26pm  

MolotovCocktail says

AD, you aren't like Wookie. But by hitching your wagon to his crazy talk you aren't doing yourself any favors.


Its more krazy for you to claim I am "hitching my wagon to his crazy talk".

I am active in my local county economic development alliance and they have members of the local real estate association called Central Panhandle Association of Realtors and they have been accounting for and planning accordingly to the topics that have been discussed here like demographics and economics with the last of the Baby Boomers migration, the price of building a home to the local building code, rolling out red carpet for migration into county of young professionals, attracting long term jobs like in manufacturing, future demand on local healthcare industry, etc
268   AD   2025 Aug 17, 9:08pm  

It is interesting that Grant Cardone and Peter Schiff recommend renting your primary residence. If you can do a lot of the maintenance and repairs like fix a plumbing leak, then it may not be such a bad choice to own a home. Maybe they think housing prices at best will increase by 1% a year.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/grant-cardone-says-owning-a-home-in-the-us-isn-t-an-investment-if-you-live-there-and-he-d-rather-pay-rent/ar-AA1KGjLv

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/it-s-a-money-pit-peter-schiff-says-a-house-depletes-your-savings-and-costs-you-a-crazy-amount-of-money-believes-that-renting-is-a-better-option-for-many-americans-do-you-agree/ar-AA1EwI20
269   WookieMan   2025 Aug 17, 9:22pm  

AD says

Its more krazy for you to claim I am "hitching my wagon to his crazy talk".

I'm not looking for anyone to hitch a wagon to me either. You bring facts and data. I believe I do as well when needed.

He's unhinged in my opinion. I literally might fear for my life if there was ever a meetup. You seem like a reasonable person and you know your stuff. I'm familiar enough with the Panhandle having spent at least 2 years of my life there. Not an expert, but I don't talk trash to you about your location. I love it down there. I've said as much in previous comments.

I ask Molotov questions like where he's been. That's not remotely personal information. Just say the areas you know. With each comment it's clear he doesn't know RE. Hell he could fake it. Don't just post graphs and maps that don't prove the point being made.
270   AD   2025 Aug 17, 10:05pm  

WookieMan says

He's unhinged in my opinion. I literally might fear for my life if there was ever a meetup.


I suspect MolotovCocktail (MC) is intentionally an extreme troll on PatNet which may make him seem unhinged, and he is the opposite in person.

I have a hard time keeping track of names since joining PatNet upon seeing Patrick K on ABC Nightline on a Friday night a long time ago.

And I think I looked up Patrick K and saw we both graduated from UM Ann Arbor with engineering degrees, albeit he was computer engineering, and I was industrial engineering and mechanical engineering.

So I was not surprised how Patrick presented it very well for the audience to understand the Housing Trap.

Is MC actually the former Patnet member Iwog ?

I think MC is from Central Florida like near Titusville or Merritt Island, unless I'm confusing MC with someone else.

I think TenPoundBass lives in South Florida like Hollywood or Pompano Beach. I just like following his posts about complying with Florida housing code in particular for electrical and mechanical.

.
271   AD   2025 Aug 17, 10:13pm  

WookieMan says

With each comment it's clear he doesn't know RE.


I can tell you Central Panhandle Real Estate Association (CPAR) has a major role in local politics because there is so much undeveloped land and a lot of independent land owners who bought 5 acres for $25000 back in 2000 that is worth at least $1 million now if they were to be developed.

So you have a lot of these land owners just restlessly waiting their turn to cash in on their land investments.

St Joe (stock ticker : JOE) owns so much land that when Bay and Walton Counties commissioners approved their Bay Walton Sector Plan, on page 9 it states that St Joe can add at least 140,000 housing units to Bay County (Panama City metro) starting in 2014 and for the next 50 years.

In 2014 there were about 80,000 homes in Bay County so it would increase Panama City metro from around 175,00 to at least around 475,000 full time residents.

But they scratch their heads and sharpen their pencils at the Bay County economic development alliance meetings to figure out how to work past the end of Baby Boomer migration, among the Census data and internal data being studied.

.
272   MolotovCocktail   2025 Aug 17, 10:26pm  

<
AD says


I am active in my local county economic development alliance and they have members of the local real estate association called Central Panhandle Association of Realtors and they have been accounting for and planning accordingly to the topics that have been discussed here like demographics and economics with the last of the Baby Boomers migration, the price of building a home to the local building code, rolling out red carpet for migration into county of young professionals, attracting long term jobs like in manufacturing, future demand on local healthcare industry, etc


So? It's a circle jerk. Doesn't give you license to post fucking wrong shit and think you can get away with it. Like all the crap you posted last year and before about rates would go down and that would motivate buyers to come back. Then you got hissy when I said that wasn't probably gonna happen.

It didn't happen. Period.

FUCKING WRONG

And now back to the ad hominen bullshit both use to deflect from the fact that their track record as Housing Experts of PatNet is soo fucking terrible:

WookieMan says


He's unhinged in my opinion. I literally might fear for my life if there was ever a meetup.


AD says


Is MC actually the former Patnet member Iwog ?

I think MC is from Central Florida like near Titusville or Merritt Island, unless I'm confusing MC with someone else.


And then there's more deflection shit that has no bearing to this conversation anymore than their ad hominems do:

WookieMan says


I ask Molotov questions like where he's been.

AD says


So I was not surprised how Patrick presented it very well for the audience to understand the Housing Trap

AD says


I think TenPoundBass lives in South Florida like Hollywood or Pompano Beach. I just like following his posts about complying with Florida housing code in particular for electrical and mechanical.


I mean, harsh fact is: you both have claimed you know your shit while there is YEARS of posts showing that you don't. The problem is that you arrogantly claim your experts.

Wookie just lied in now denying he is isn't. Just a few days ago he lectured me that he was.

Call me a troll. Call me worse. Doesn't change the hard core reality that is written down here. My only crime is that I didn't bow down to either of you...that I had the temerity to call your bullshit out.

That you aren't the experts you think you are. Or rather, your fucking wrong positions make a mockery of that word.
273   WookieMan   2025 Aug 17, 10:29pm  

AD says

Is MC actually the former Patnet member Iwog ?

I think Iwog nuked his account. He was deranged for sure. I like guys or the occasional gal that shows up that knows what they're talking about. I don't think MC is in FL. He doesn't answer questions though. Just X posts, memes and boobs. He's like the moron with cops reciting the constitution at a traffic stop and saying I don't answer questions. Could just answer the question and be on your way.

All I've asked for is simple stuff. Where have you been in the past? You go to Scottsdale? I'd respond have you been to Cave Creek? Or say Anthem, AZ. Drive west past the new chip factory and play a round at Quintero? Reading news is one thing. Seeing it or being active in it like you being active in the PCB scene are the people I want to hear from. Especially since I know the area.

If you told me prices were down 25-30% I'd be like oh crap maybe it is bad. Gulf front stuff that wouldn't surprise me, but the inland stuff is reasonably priced and that would be a lot of people that are not working. There's no information from MC.

He keeps bringing up the median thing. I didn't post the map showing the states with lower median. That was him. I should just stop, but I frankly don't give a shit.
274   MolotovCocktail   2025 Aug 17, 10:37pm  

WookieMan says


He keeps bringing up the median thing. I didn't post the map showing the states with lower median. That was him. I should just stop, but I frankly don't give a shit.


Stop the lying. I never said anything about median..except to call you out for lying about it.

. Why do you keep lying?

The proof is there what you said and claimed what I said or didn't.

Right here.

https://patrick.net/comment?comment_id=2199177

https://patrick.net/comment?comment_id=2199309
275   WookieMan   2025 Aug 17, 10:50pm  

MolotovCocktail says

When did I ever speak of the national median?

Lol. You posted a national map with states with lower median prices. You're now using semantics like "speak" for the national median. When you post a NATIONAL map, NATIONAL median is implied. Use words and not images. Kind of like adults do.

Or answer simple questions in writing. Where have you traveled? What cities do you know? These are not remotely doxxing questions. You don't want to be found to be a liar here after shitting on many users with the "pat net real estate expert" bull shit as you've provided nothing. You literally provide nothing to this site.
278   MolotovCocktail   2025 Aug 18, 7:40am  

WookieMan says


Lol. You posted a national map with states with lower median prices. You're now using semantics like "speak" for the national median. When you post a NATIONAL map, NATIONAL median is implied. Use words and not images. Kind of like adults do.


See, more bullshit. IMPLIED = imagined in Wookie's head. ASSUMED.

He says this because he can't show the map he claims. And it doesn't matter, because before that he had admitted I didn't say anything about median...that he just made it up in his head.

Right here.

https://patrick.net/comment?comment_id=2199177

https://patrick.net/comment?comment_id=2199309

And what is this lower median price? No such thing. You are either in the median or not.

Where is this NATIONAL map? I posted a map OF STATES, which isn't a national map. And nowhere does it state it was referring to median prices on it.

But he'll claim semantics again. Or some other bullshit. Its all in his head.
280   HeadSet   2025 Aug 18, 8:05am  

AD says

I think TenPoundBass lives in South Florida like Hollywood or Pompano Beach. I just like following his posts about complying with Florida housing code in particular for electrical and mechanical.

TenPoundBase is also a gifted programmer. He sent me some SQL code that I incorporated into a dispatch program. I understand that TPB is self-taught, but his code It solved an issue for me that degreed software engineers were unable to fix.

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