patrick.net

MolotovCocktail says

AD, you aren't like Wookie. But by hitching your wagon to his crazy talk you aren't doing yourself any favors.

Its more krazy for you to claim I am "hitching my wagon to his crazy talk".

I am active in my local county economic development alliance and they have members of the local real estate association called Central Panhandle Association of Realtors and they have been accounting for and planning accordingly to the topics that have been discussed here like demographics and economics with the last of the Baby Boomers migration, the price of building a home to the local building code, rolling out red carpet for migration into county of young professionals, attracting long term jobs like in manufacturing, future demand on local healthcare industry, etc

It is interesting that Grant Cardone and Peter Schiff recommend renting your primary residence. If you can do a lot of the maintenance and repairs like fix a plumbing leak, then it may not be such a bad choice to own a home. Maybe they think housing prices at best will increase by 1% a year.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/grant-cardone-says-owning-a-home-in-the-us-isn-t-an-investment-if-you-live-there-and-he-d-rather-pay-rent/ar-AA1KGjLv

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/it-s-a-money-pit-peter-schiff-says-a-house-depletes-your-savings-and-costs-you-a-crazy-amount-of-money-believes-that-renting-is-a-better-option-for-many-americans-do-you-agree/ar-AA1EwI20

AD says

Its more krazy for you to claim I am "hitching my wagon to his crazy talk".

I'm not looking for anyone to hitch a wagon to me either. You bring facts and data. I believe I do as well when needed.

He's unhinged in my opinion. I literally might fear for my life if there was ever a meetup. You seem like a reasonable person and you know your stuff. I'm familiar enough with the Panhandle having spent at least 2 years of my life there. Not an expert, but I don't talk trash to you about your location. I love it down there. I've said as much in previous comments.

I ask Molotov questions like where he's been. That's not remotely personal information. Just say the areas you know. With each comment it's clear he doesn't know RE. Hell he could fake it. Don't just post graphs and maps that don't prove the point being made.

WookieMan says

He's unhinged in my opinion. I literally might fear for my life if there was ever a meetup.

I suspect MolotovCocktail (MC) is intentionally an extreme troll on PatNet which may make him seem unhinged, and he is the opposite in person.

I have a hard time keeping track of names since joining PatNet upon seeing Patrick K on ABC Nightline on a Friday night a long time ago.

And I think I looked up Patrick K and saw we both graduated from UM Ann Arbor with engineering degrees, albeit he was computer engineering, and I was industrial engineering and mechanical engineering.

So I was not surprised how Patrick presented it very well for the audience to understand the Housing Trap.

Is MC actually the former Patnet member Iwog ?

I think MC is from Central Florida like near Titusville or Merritt Island, unless I'm confusing MC with someone else.

I think TenPoundBass lives in South Florida like Hollywood or Pompano Beach. I just like following his posts about complying with Florida housing code in particular for electrical and mechanical.

.

WookieMan says

With each comment it's clear he doesn't know RE.

I can tell you Central Panhandle Real Estate Association (CPAR) has a major role in local politics because there is so much undeveloped land and a lot of independent land owners who bought 5 acres for $25000 back in 2000 that is worth at least $1 million now if they were to be developed.

So you have a lot of these land owners just restlessly waiting their turn to cash in on their land investments.

St Joe (stock ticker : JOE) owns so much land that when Bay and Walton Counties commissioners approved their Bay Walton Sector Plan, on page 9 it states that St Joe can add at least 140,000 housing units to Bay County (Panama City metro) starting in 2014 and for the next 50 years.

In 2014 there were about 80,000 homes in Bay County so it would increase Panama City metro from around 175,00 to at least around 475,000 full time residents.

But they scratch their heads and sharpen their pencils at the Bay County economic development alliance meetings to figure out how to work past the end of Baby Boomer migration, among the Census data and internal data being studied.

.

<
AD says

I am active in my local county economic development alliance and they have members of the local real estate association called Central Panhandle Association of Realtors and they have been accounting for and planning accordingly to the topics that have been discussed here like demographics and economics with the last of the Baby Boomers migration, the price of building a home to the local building code, rolling out red carpet for migration into county of young professionals, attracting long term jobs like in manufacturing, future demand on local healthcare industry, etc

So? It's a circle jerk. Doesn't give you license to post fucking wrong shit and think you can get away with it. Like all the crap you posted last year and before about rates would go down and that would motivate buyers to come back. Then you got hissy when I said that wasn't probably gonna happen.

It didn't happen. Period.

FUCKING WRONG

And now back to the ad hominen bullshit both use to deflect from the fact that their track record as Housing Experts of PatNet is soo fucking terrible:

WookieMan says

He's unhinged in my opinion. I literally might fear for my life if there was ever a meetup.

AD says

Is MC actually the former Patnet member Iwog ?

I think MC is from Central Florida like near Titusville or Merritt Island, unless I'm confusing MC with someone else.

And then there's more deflection shit that has no bearing to this conversation anymore than their ad hominems do:

WookieMan says

I ask Molotov questions like where he's been.

AD says

So I was not surprised how Patrick presented it very well for the audience to understand the Housing Trap

AD says

I think TenPoundBass lives in South Florida like Hollywood or Pompano Beach. I just like following his posts about complying with Florida housing code in particular for electrical and mechanical.

I mean, harsh fact is: you both have claimed you know your shit while there is YEARS of posts showing that you don't. The problem is that you arrogantly claim your experts.

Wookie just lied in now denying he is isn't. Just a few days ago he lectured me that he was.

Call me a troll. Call me worse. Doesn't change the hard core reality that is written down here. My only crime is that I didn't bow down to either of you...that I had the temerity to call your bullshit out.

That you aren't the experts you think you are. Or rather, your fucking wrong positions make a mockery of that word.

AD says

Is MC actually the former Patnet member Iwog ?

I think Iwog nuked his account. He was deranged for sure. I like guys or the occasional gal that shows up that knows what they're talking about. I don't think MC is in FL. He doesn't answer questions though. Just X posts, memes and boobs. He's like the moron with cops reciting the constitution at a traffic stop and saying I don't answer questions. Could just answer the question and be on your way.

All I've asked for is simple stuff. Where have you been in the past? You go to Scottsdale? I'd respond have you been to Cave Creek? Or say Anthem, AZ. Drive west past the new chip factory and play a round at Quintero? Reading news is one thing. Seeing it or being active in it like you being active in the PCB scene are the people I want to hear from. Especially since I know the area.

If you told me prices were down 25-30% I'd be like oh crap maybe it is bad. Gulf front stuff that wouldn't surprise me, but the inland stuff is reasonably priced and that would be a lot of people that are not working. There's no information from MC.

He keeps bringing up the median thing. I didn't post the map showing the states with lower median. That was him. I should just stop, but I frankly don't give a shit.

WookieMan says

He keeps bringing up the median thing. I didn't post the map showing the states with lower median. That was him. I should just stop, but I frankly don't give a shit.

Stop the lying. I never said anything about median..except to call you out for lying about it.

. Why do you keep lying?

The proof is there what you said and claimed what I said or didn't.

Right here.

https://patrick.net/comment?comment_id=2199177

https://patrick.net/comment?comment_id=2199309

MolotovCocktail says

When did I ever speak of the national median?

Lol. You posted a national map with states with lower median prices. You're now using semantics like "speak" for the national median. When you post a NATIONAL map, NATIONAL median is implied. Use words and not images. Kind of like adults do.

Or answer simple questions in writing. Where have you traveled? What cities do you know? These are not remotely doxxing questions. You don't want to be found to be a liar here after shitting on many users with the "pat net real estate expert" bull shit as you've provided nothing. You literally provide nothing to this site.

Ed Dowd says Diver Down.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JUwF5C32XXA&t=1124s

https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/home-foreclosures-increase-nevada-florida-maryland-july-2025/?cid=eml__1946%3A66e221571a4446d4e6969d41%3Arm202508181030_Marketing_Consumer_Daily_EditorialRSSDynamic

WookieMan says

Lol. You posted a national map with states with lower median prices. You're now using semantics like "speak" for the national median. When you post a NATIONAL map, NATIONAL median is implied. Use words and not images. Kind of like adults do.

See, more bullshit. IMPLIED = imagined in Wookie's head. ASSUMED.

He says this because he can't show the map he claims. And it doesn't matter, because before that he had admitted I didn't say anything about median...that he just made it up in his head.

Right here.

https://patrick.net/comment?comment_id=2199177

https://patrick.net/comment?comment_id=2199309

And what is this lower median price? No such thing. You are either in the median or not.

Where is this NATIONAL map? I posted a map OF STATES, which isn't a national map. And nowhere does it state it was referring to median prices on it.

But he'll claim semantics again. Or some other bullshit. Its all in his head.

GNL says

https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/home-foreclosures-increase-nevada-florida-maryland-july-2025/?cid=eml__1946%3A66e221571a4446d4e6969d41%3Arm202508181030_Marketing_Consumer_Daily_EditorialRSSDynamic

But...but the Housing Experts of PatNet!

AD says

I think TenPoundBass lives in South Florida like Hollywood or Pompano Beach. I just like following his posts about complying with Florida housing code in particular for electrical and mechanical.

TenPoundBase is also a gifted programmer. He sent me some SQL code that I incorporated into a dispatch program. I understand that TPB is self-taught, but his code It solved an issue for me that degreed software engineers were unable to fix.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/30/apartment-rents-drop-in-july-as-vacancies-move-to-multi-year-high.html

Apartment rents drop in July as vacancies move to multiyear high

HeadSet says

TenPoundBase is also a gifted programmer. He sent me some SQL code that I incorporated into a dispatch program. I understand that TPB is self-taught, but his code It solved an issue for me that degreed software engineers were unable to fix.

We haven't heard from him in a while.

Again:



Soon to be followed up with Wookie commentary about how I am referring to a 'lower median' when I did no such thing...nor have I.

"But you IMPLIED it!"

MolotovCocktail says

So? It's a circle jerk. Doesn't give you license to post fucking wrong shit and think you can get away with it. Like all the crap you posted last year and before about rates would go down and that would motivate buyers to come back. Then you got hissy when I said that wasn't probably gonna happen.

It didn't happen. Period.

FUCKING WRONG

Yes I forecasted the 30 year mortgage rate would go down to at least 6%, and to encourage buying down 4 discount points to bring it to 5%, which is like lowering the price 10%.

I did not get hissy as I said that this was an extraordinary time as far as mortgage rates.

And the Bay County economic development alliance is not a "circle jerk". Its to understand global and national economics and demographics and apply it to the county as far as attaining sustainable growth.

.

AD says

encourage buying down 4 discount points to bring it to 5%

That reminds me of the old "3-2-1 Buydown" process from back when mortgages were double digit.

AD says

And the Bay County economic development alliance is not a "circle jerk". Its to understand global and national economics and demographics and apply it to the county as far as attaining sustainable growth.

Really? And if you went to them with Wookie's IMPLIED this and ASSUMED that to justify his BS arguments, how would grandees at the Bay Area Circle Jerk respond?

MolotovCocktail says

AD says

And the Bay County economic development alliance is not a "circle jerk". Its to understand global and national economics and demographics and apply it to the county as far as attaining sustainable growth.

Really? And if you went to them with Wookie's IMPLIED this and ASSUMED that to justify his BS arguments, how would grandees at the Bay Area Circle Jerk respond?

I don't discuss Wookie's comments at the Bay County economic development alliance, nor I discuss your comments.

I do bring up concepts that are in Patrick's Housing Trap as far as discuss housing "sustainability" related to job growth in local sectors like manufacturing including the shipyard and new aerospace companies among others.

.

AD says

don't discuss Wookie's comments at the Bay County economic development alliance,

Smart move.

Yeah, population growing only by about 4.5% over next 20 years but new housing starts are at least 1 million a year :-/

Looks like based on below table from Congressional Budget Office that there is more new housing starts than needed based on population growth

**********************************************************************************************

# Projected U.S. Population vs. New Housing Starts (2025–2044)

## Summary

The U.S. population is projected to grow from roughly 350 million in 2025 to about 366.4 million in 2044, based on CBO’s assumed annual growth rates of 0.4% between 2025 and 2035 and 0.1% between 2036 and 2055. Over the same period, the Congressional Budget Office forecasts new housing starts averaging 1.68 million units per year from 2025 to 2029, declining to 1.52 million from 2030 to 2033, 1.10 million from 2034 to 2043, and 0.80 million in 2044.

---

## Projections Table

| Year | Population (millions) | New Housing Starts (millions of units) |
|------|-----------------------|----------------------------------------|
| 2025 | 350.0 | 1.68 |
| 2026 | 351.4 | 1.68 |
| 2027 | 352.8 | 1.68 |
| 2028 | 354.2 | 1.68 |
| 2029 | 355.6 | 1.68 |
| 2030 | 357.1 | 1.52 |
| 2031 | 358.5 | 1.52 |
| 2032 | 359.9 | 1.52 |
| 2033 | 361.4 | 1.52 |
| 2034 | 362.8 | 1.10 |
| 2035 | 363.2 | 1.10 |
| 2036 | 363.5 | 1.10 |
| 2037 | 363.9 | 1.10 |
| 2038 | 364.3 | 1.10 |
| 2039 | 364.6 | 1.10 |
| 2040 | 365.0 | 1.10 |
| 2041 | 365.4 | 1.10 |
| 2042 | 365.7 | 1.10 |
| 2043 | 366.1 | 1.10 |
| 2044 | 366.4 | 0.80 |

---

## Sources

1. Congressional Budget Office, The Demographic Outlook: 2025 to 2055
2. Congressional Budget Office, *The Outlook for Housing Starts*

---

## Additional Considerations

- Housing starts per 1,000 people will fall from about 4.8 units in 2025 to roughly 2.2 units in 2044, reflecting slower population growth and aging.
- Changes in average household size, remote-work trends, and immigration policy could materially shift both population and housing demand.
- Regional dynamics may vary widely—some metros could see persistent shortages even as national growth slows.

ChatGPT noted that the median home price today is around $420,000 and predicted it will rise to between $510,000 and $580,000 by 2030. It based its analysis on the assumption that home prices will grow 4% to 6% annually, inflation will average 2.5% to 3% and mortgage rates will remain within 5.5% to 7.5%.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/i-asked-chatgpt-whether-buying-a-house-will-become-more-affordable-in-5-years-here-s-what-it-said/ar-AA1KJfQF

MolotovCocktail says

Again:



Soon to be followed up with Wookie commentary about how I am referring to a 'lower median' when I did no such thing...nor have I.

"But you IMPLIED it!"

Prices don't say the same. 30 miles from me. I could pick 20 cities around 300 miles from me and prove that graph means nothing. https://www.zillow.com/home-values/13650/saint-charles-il/

Don't like Zillow, but it's still data.

MolotovCocktail says

You do realize we overbuilt in 2000-2008. We then stopped building. Population increased over the next 14 years with little to no building. Some hipster cities that had the demand built. The few that did are dealing with it now. Most the country is fine. Example above.

$440K is a reasonable price for a two income family that makes $120-150k/yr. Wife and I were making that in our 20's.

WookieMan says

You do realize we overbuilt in 2000-2008. We then stopped building. Population increased over the next 14 years with little to no building.

Yes, it was a dry spell from around 2007 to 2019: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST

Single family housing is drying up since 2007: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST1F

Work from home is declining so the hipster and young professional cities and counties need the job base to sustain that demographic. Look at how Oracle and Tesla moved to hipster and quirky Austin.

For Panama City Florida, there are major employers of Tyndall AFB and NAVSTA Panama City, and they are finishing Florida State University teaching hospital in Panama City Beach.

They are trying to make Panama City / Bay County into an advanced manufacturing center to bring in "young professionals" like below news in 2022:

"Yes, a new electric boat manufacturing operation is coming to Bay County, Florida. Mocama Marine LLC, a subsidiary of East Bay Capital, is establishing a boat manufacturing operation in Bay County, Florida. This operation will involve consolidating the manufacturing of Action Craft and SouthWind boat brands. The company is investing $10.5 million and creating 105 new jobs, according to the Bay Economic Development Alliance."

An unknown aviation company is currently looking to build a campus in Panama City and add 1400 jobs: https://www.wjhg.com/2025/08/07/two-companies-are-considering-coming-bay-county/

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/18/yieldstreet-real-estate-bets-customer-losses.html

How Yieldstreet’s real estate bets left customers with massive losses

He invested $400,000 in two real estate projects: A luxury apartment building in downtown Nashville overseen by former WeWork CEO Adam Neumann’s family office, and a three-building renovation in the Chelsea neighborhood of New York. Each project had targeted annual returns of around 20%.

Three years later, Klish said he has little hope of ever seeing his money again. Yieldstreet declared the Nashville project a total loss in May, according to an investor letter, wiping out $300,000 of his funds. The Chelsea deal needs to raise fresh capital to avoid a similar fate, according to another letter. Both letters were reviewed by CNBC.

Of the 30 deals that CNBC reviewed information on, four have been declared total losses by Yieldstreet. Of the rest, 23 are deemed to be on “watchlist” by the startup as it seeks to recoup value for investors, sometimes by raising more funds from members. Three deals are listed as “active,” though they have stopped making scheduled payouts, according to the documents.

Additionally, Yieldstreet shut down a real estate investment trust made up of six of the above projects last year as its value plunged by nearly half, locking up customer money for at least two years.

WookieMan says

$120-150k/yr. Wife and I were making that in our 20's.

Yet you're just now buying a $700K home. Sounds legit. Sorry to call you out but, you're always talking about how much money you and the wife make. And how smart you are and how much you know about real estate. You should be a real estate king by now living la vida loca in like Palm Beach or something. Something seems off to me.

If you knew as much as you claim, you would have bought real estate by the boatload 15 years ago.

My son inlaw's grandfather built a billion dollar real estate empire by himself.

GNL says

My son inlaw's grandfather built a billion dollar real estate empire by himself.

His 5 daughters, grandchildren and great grandchildren are living off of what he built. Only one grandson is working to grow the empire.

Glock-n-Load says

His 5 daughters, grandchildren and great grandchildren are living off of what he built. Only one grandson is working to grow the empire.

My parents were lower middle class. While I never went without food, or a roof over my head, when I struck out on my own, I had very little. No car, little savings, student loan debt, no job skills. Parents basically washed their hands of me. Yanked the hand-me-down car whose title they held, which was their right to do, and so my impoverished adventure began. But I knew I had nobody to rely on, no familial wealth to tap, it was up to me. OTOH, I was a Deadhead, which took the edge off of the situation, and gave me a perspective on the absudity of the system we live in. Stumbling forward, I managed to build a career, punctuated by many bouts of unemployment. Breakthrough came when a colleague showed me the ropes of starting companies, which I did. Lots of ups and downs, but had two successful exits. I am now in the 5-6% wealth percentile, which, considering where I came from, is quite an accomplishment, I must say. But it was that fear of being homeless with no one to rely on that drove me forward. Frugality by necessity and desperation. That never leaves you.

GNL says

Yet you're just now buying a $700K home. Sounds legit. Sorry to call you out but, you're always talking about how much money you and the wife make. And how smart you are and how much you know about real estate. You should be a real estate king by now living la vida loca in like Palm Beach or something. Something seems off to me.

If you knew as much as you claim, you would have bought real estate by the boatload 15 years ago.

Unfortunately you or anyone here don't know my life beside what I choose to share on the site and none of it is a lie. I could make $3M/yr and would still only build a $700k house. I'd rather have fun and live life instead of spend it on a house I sleep 8 hours, do laundry, shower, poop, mow and clean another 2-4 hours a day with 3 kids. Then go to their games and I'm not there another 2-4 hours. Then still work.

It was time to upgrade. I'm the lottery winner that puts all the money in safe funds. Doesn't buy expensive cars. I travel and have experiences with my kids. A house was not high on the priority list. Teens and myself pushing 6'2"-6-4" in 1,263SF is not realistic. 2 baths. Shared bedrooms.

Also I ran a real estate brokerage. I know real estate. I spot bull shit when I see it. Let me know where I've stated to be a real estate mogul? I don't want that life. It's all smiles and bull shit for those that are active real estate investors. Their life is miserable. Hell mine was.

The money thing also is about it's not that difficult to make it. Guys sitting on the back of a truck on the wife's crews make $90-120k as an individual. Get a wife making $30k/yr and you can easily afford at $350-$450k home and be within the 3X rule. Starting to question that pat netters make little money. Tone of jealously lately in the comments. Sorry I chose to make my life good, my bad???

Al_Shapton,

I grew up the same way. I mentioned the son inlaw’s grandfather and what he accomplished because that is an actual accomplishment compared to some of the braggadocio I hear on Pat.net. That’s all.

The son in law is a grade A prick. No doubt about it. I focus on the grandkids. I sure hope they turn out to be better people than him and my daughter.

Wookie,

I think you’re confusing jealousy with small dick syndrome. Maybe?

Glock-n-Load says

Wookie,

I think you’re confusing jealousy with small dick syndrome. Maybe?

I'm just fine. Not sure why another man on a website is concerned about my dick though. That's a little strange.

WookieMan says

You do realize we overbuilt in 2000-2008. We then stopped building. Population increased over the next 14 years with little to no building. Some hipster cities that had the demand built. The few that did are dealing with it now. Most the country is fine. Example above.

WookieMan says

Also I ran a real estate brokerage. I know real estate

Sure you do.