patrick.net

MolotovCocktail says

Yes. Because it reflects how fucking bad things are now.

How fucking bad are things? Did population not grow? Did more homes not get built in cities like Denver, Austin, Boise, Nashville, etc? I put a line on there for you for a reason. We're at typical NEW home inventory since 1965. The graph looks like a hockey stick because of the housing bust. We're right where we need to be.

Also your own graph says NEW homes for sale. Fun fact, maybe they'll sell as Millennials are in family formation and most of them are moving to the suburbs or rural. You can't sell a new house if you don't put it on the market. What builder puts a house on the market not wanting to sell it?

More population. Backlog of NOT building. You've given no logical analysis of your point. Younger people make a lot more money than you think. Outside of CA, or say Jackson, WY or Scottsdale, most young professionals are in the 3x to worst case 5x income to price. It's not doomsday dude. Only in pockets and even in those pockets the owners can take the beating because they have wealth.

WookieMan says

How fucking bad are things?

Wow! There it is, everyone. More proof he engages in magical thinking.

It's amazing EXCEPT when you all realize we have been enabling him do so. Myself included. Just sad.

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says

How fucking bad are things?

Wow! There it is, everyone. More proof he engages in magical thinking.

It's amazing EXCEPT when you all realize we have been enabling him do so. Myself included. Just sad.

No question answered. Hard to have a conversation with someone that doesn't answer basic stuff. I don't know anyone doing bad. Job or housing wise. Name something? I showed in the graph the trend line is totally fine with population growth. You didn't even counter that.

WookieMan says

No question answered. Hard to have a conversation with someone that doesn't answer basic stuff.

Cut the bullshit.

There's the conversation going on here...and that which is going on entirely or at least mostly in your head. You demonstrate this over and over. You can talk a good game that fools ppl most of the time. But as you keep it up, you let things slip out that clearly ahows you are definitely having some sort of imaginary conversation in part or full, instead.

https://youtu.be/AJS9X1SBbsA?si=7DHNmumdWUaeXkZC

YO, Housing Experts of PatNet!

MolotovCocktail says

No. The 'hipster' thing is WookieMan's bullshit that I was referring to.

Pay attention, boy.

Hipsters are hipsters, no matter who says hipsters, boy

.

WookieMan says

most young professionals are in the 3x to worst case 5x income to price

Demographics determines economics as Ken Gronbach (frequent guest on Coast to Coast AM) says

Bay County and Panama City are trying to bring in "young professionals

But I think the Work From Home craze is over, and many are being called back to work such as at AT&T, Apple, IBM, etc.

So they are trying to bring in an electric boat manufacturing company (about 3000 jobs) and an aerospace company (about 500 jobs) after successfully bringing in companies like an electric equipment company, an industrial laundry company, healthcare software company, etc

and the last batch of Baby Boomers moving to Bay County likely is in the next 3 years

.

WookieMan says

No question answered. Hard to have a conversation with someone that doesn't answer basic stuff.

I'll dumb it down. Have you ever been to Denver? Yes or no?

I've answered everything you asked. You just move the goal posts constantly. I've consistently said coast and cities, some of which are hipster type where people move because they think it's cool. That trend will flare out at some point and they will lose value on homes and rents.

You've literally said nothing in this back and forth beside just argue. You literally just posted a graph that shows with population growth the number of new homes for sale is normal. What was your point? And that's just it, you don't know and don't have one.

Stick to the big boob pics thread or whatever it is. I blocked it. I'm not 14. You clearly know nothing about real estate. Just stay in your lane.

AD says

Hipsters are hipsters, no matter who says hipsters, boy

Nope. Wookie has his own definition for that.

WookieMan says

I've answered everything you asked

You've hallucinated that you do. What exactly in your mind have I asked you?

Well other than questions like, "WTF? When did I ever say [whatever he claims I did]?"

Please tell us what you have imagined up. We need a good laugh.

WookieMan says

I've consistently said coast and cities, some of which are hipster type where people move because they think it's cool.

Paying attention @AD? Hipsters!

WookieMan says

You've literally said nothing in this back and forth beside just argue

How can I say nothing AND 'just argue'? That is impossible to do.

And somehow magically refer to the national median-or-whatever home prices when I never did...and you later admitted you just dreamed it up that I did?

WookieMan says

You clearly know nothing about real estate.

Annnnd his typical fallback at the end.

AD just says "boy".

Our self-declared resident Housing Experts of PatNet say they know their shit and anyone who calls them out on it, well...are not.

Everything else...what has been the track record of our Housing Experts of PatNet been, exactly?

FUCKING WRONG

About the market?

FUCKING WRONG

About mortgage rates? Fed cuts? Results of which?

FUCKING WRONG

I even have a meme I created years ago that I think I've posted in response to their fucking wrong bullshit like ten times already. Best Meme-Utility Ratio, ever.



Now...there's nothing wrong with being wrong. The problem is that they can't admit that they just may be full of shit. Just may!

With Wookie, this problem is so bad...so much of a threat to his worldview that he LITERALLY MAKES SHIT UP. In his mind at first, and then that forms the basis of what he posts here or he writes it directly. It's so bad he outright lies about what others wrote or didn't write.

Then when he gets caught, it's all bullshit after that in a lame attempt to cover his ass. And when I don't back off its ad hominems about shit totally unrelated or just some really strange shit.

And when that doesn't work it's 'I am a R/E expert and you aren't' by declared Royal Proclamation by His Expertness, as I stated in the above.

It's like 'debating' with a Global Warming 'scientist'.

AD, you aren't like Wookie. But by hitching your wagon to his crazy talk you aren't doing yourself any favors.

WookieMan says

Stick to the big boob pics thread or whatever it is. I blocked it.

So if he blocked it...then why his obsession over it?

This is like the third or so comment like this he's made to me since he first told us all he blocked that thread shortly after Patrick provided us with that function. I expect there will be more because...I live rent-free in @WookieMan s head.

MolotovCocktail says

AD, you aren't like Wookie. But by hitching your wagon to his crazy talk you aren't doing yourself any favors.

Its more krazy for you to claim I am "hitching my wagon to his crazy talk".

I am active in my local county economic development alliance and they have members of the local real estate association called Central Panhandle Association of Realtors and they have been accounting for and planning accordingly to the topics that have been discussed here like demographics and economics with the last of the Baby Boomers migration, the price of building a home to the local building code, rolling out red carpet for migration into county of young professionals, attracting long term jobs like in manufacturing, future demand on local healthcare industry, etc

It is interesting that Grant Cardone and Peter Schiff recommend renting your primary residence. If you can do a lot of the maintenance and repairs like fix a plumbing leak, then it may not be such a bad choice to own a home. Maybe they think housing prices at best will increase by 1% a year.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/grant-cardone-says-owning-a-home-in-the-us-isn-t-an-investment-if-you-live-there-and-he-d-rather-pay-rent/ar-AA1KGjLv

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/it-s-a-money-pit-peter-schiff-says-a-house-depletes-your-savings-and-costs-you-a-crazy-amount-of-money-believes-that-renting-is-a-better-option-for-many-americans-do-you-agree/ar-AA1EwI20

AD says

Its more krazy for you to claim I am "hitching my wagon to his crazy talk".

I'm not looking for anyone to hitch a wagon to me either. You bring facts and data. I believe I do as well when needed.

He's unhinged in my opinion. I literally might fear for my life if there was ever a meetup. You seem like a reasonable person and you know your stuff. I'm familiar enough with the Panhandle having spent at least 2 years of my life there. Not an expert, but I don't talk trash to you about your location. I love it down there. I've said as much in previous comments.

I ask Molotov questions like where he's been. That's not remotely personal information. Just say the areas you know. With each comment it's clear he doesn't know RE. Hell he could fake it. Don't just post graphs and maps that don't prove the point being made.

WookieMan says

He's unhinged in my opinion. I literally might fear for my life if there was ever a meetup.

I suspect MolotovCocktail (MC) is intentionally an extreme troll on PatNet which may make him seem unhinged, and he is the opposite in person.

I have a hard time keeping track of names since joining PatNet upon seeing Patrick K on ABC Nightline on a Friday night a long time ago.

And I think I looked up Patrick K and saw we both graduated from UM Ann Arbor with engineering degrees, albeit he was computer engineering, and I was industrial engineering and mechanical engineering.

So I was not surprised how Patrick presented it very well for the audience to understand the Housing Trap.

Is MC actually the former Patnet member Iwog ?

I think MC is from Central Florida like near Titusville or Merritt Island, unless I'm confusing MC with someone else.

I think TenPoundBass lives in South Florida like Hollywood or Pompano Beach. I just like following his posts about complying with Florida housing code in particular for electrical and mechanical.

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WookieMan says

With each comment it's clear he doesn't know RE.

I can tell you Central Panhandle Real Estate Association (CPAR) has a major role in local politics because there is so much undeveloped land and a lot of independent land owners who bought 5 acres for $25000 back in 2000 that is worth at least $1 million now if they were to be developed.

So you have a lot of these land owners just restlessly waiting their turn to cash in on their land investments.

St Joe (stock ticker : JOE) owns so much land that when Bay and Walton Counties commissioners approved their Bay Walton Sector Plan, on page 9 it states that St Joe can add at least 140,000 housing units to Bay County (Panama City metro) starting in 2014 and for the next 50 years.

In 2014 there were about 80,000 homes in Bay County so it would increase Panama City metro from around 175,00 to at least around 475,000 full time residents.

But they scratch their heads and sharpen their pencils at the Bay County economic development alliance meetings to figure out how to work past the end of Baby Boomer migration, among the Census data and internal data being studied.

.

<
AD says

I am active in my local county economic development alliance and they have members of the local real estate association called Central Panhandle Association of Realtors and they have been accounting for and planning accordingly to the topics that have been discussed here like demographics and economics with the last of the Baby Boomers migration, the price of building a home to the local building code, rolling out red carpet for migration into county of young professionals, attracting long term jobs like in manufacturing, future demand on local healthcare industry, etc

So? It's a circle jerk. Doesn't give you license to post fucking wrong shit and think you can get away with it. Like all the crap you posted last year and before about rates would go down and that would motivate buyers to come back. Then you got hissy when I said that wasn't probably gonna happen.

It didn't happen. Period.

FUCKING WRONG

And now back to the ad hominen bullshit both use to deflect from the fact that their track record as Housing Experts of PatNet is soo fucking terrible:

WookieMan says

He's unhinged in my opinion. I literally might fear for my life if there was ever a meetup.

AD says

Is MC actually the former Patnet member Iwog ?

I think MC is from Central Florida like near Titusville or Merritt Island, unless I'm confusing MC with someone else.

And then there's more deflection shit that has no bearing to this conversation anymore than their ad hominems do:

WookieMan says

I ask Molotov questions like where he's been.

AD says

So I was not surprised how Patrick presented it very well for the audience to understand the Housing Trap

AD says

I think TenPoundBass lives in South Florida like Hollywood or Pompano Beach. I just like following his posts about complying with Florida housing code in particular for electrical and mechanical.

I mean, harsh fact is: you both have claimed you know your shit while there is YEARS of posts showing that you don't. The problem is that you arrogantly claim your experts.

Wookie just lied in now denying he is isn't. Just a few days ago he lectured me that he was.

Call me a troll. Call me worse. Doesn't change the hard core reality that is written down here. My only crime is that I didn't bow down to either of you...that I had the temerity to call your bullshit out.

That you aren't the experts you think you are. Or rather, your fucking wrong positions make a mockery of that word.

AD says

Is MC actually the former Patnet member Iwog ?

I think Iwog nuked his account. He was deranged for sure. I like guys or the occasional gal that shows up that knows what they're talking about. I don't think MC is in FL. He doesn't answer questions though. Just X posts, memes and boobs. He's like the moron with cops reciting the constitution at a traffic stop and saying I don't answer questions. Could just answer the question and be on your way.

All I've asked for is simple stuff. Where have you been in the past? You go to Scottsdale? I'd respond have you been to Cave Creek? Or say Anthem, AZ. Drive west past the new chip factory and play a round at Quintero? Reading news is one thing. Seeing it or being active in it like you being active in the PCB scene are the people I want to hear from. Especially since I know the area.

If you told me prices were down 25-30% I'd be like oh crap maybe it is bad. Gulf front stuff that wouldn't surprise me, but the inland stuff is reasonably priced and that would be a lot of people that are not working. There's no information from MC.

He keeps bringing up the median thing. I didn't post the map showing the states with lower median. That was him. I should just stop, but I frankly don't give a shit.

WookieMan says

He keeps bringing up the median thing. I didn't post the map showing the states with lower median. That was him. I should just stop, but I frankly don't give a shit.

Stop the lying. I never said anything about median..except to call you out for lying about it.

. Why do you keep lying?

The proof is there what you said and claimed what I said or didn't.

Right here.

https://patrick.net/comment?comment_id=2199177

https://patrick.net/comment?comment_id=2199309

MolotovCocktail says

When did I ever speak of the national median?

Lol. You posted a national map with states with lower median prices. You're now using semantics like "speak" for the national median. When you post a NATIONAL map, NATIONAL median is implied. Use words and not images. Kind of like adults do.

Or answer simple questions in writing. Where have you traveled? What cities do you know? These are not remotely doxxing questions. You don't want to be found to be a liar here after shitting on many users with the "pat net real estate expert" bull shit as you've provided nothing. You literally provide nothing to this site.

Ed Dowd says Diver Down.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JUwF5C32XXA&t=1124s

https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/home-foreclosures-increase-nevada-florida-maryland-july-2025/?cid=eml__1946%3A66e221571a4446d4e6969d41%3Arm202508181030_Marketing_Consumer_Daily_EditorialRSSDynamic

WookieMan says

Lol. You posted a national map with states with lower median prices. You're now using semantics like "speak" for the national median. When you post a NATIONAL map, NATIONAL median is implied. Use words and not images. Kind of like adults do.

See, more bullshit. IMPLIED = imagined in Wookie's head. ASSUMED.

He says this because he can't show the map he claims. And it doesn't matter, because before that he had admitted I didn't say anything about median...that he just made it up in his head.

Right here.

https://patrick.net/comment?comment_id=2199177

https://patrick.net/comment?comment_id=2199309

And what is this lower median price? No such thing. You are either in the median or not.

Where is this NATIONAL map? I posted a map OF STATES, which isn't a national map. And nowhere does it state it was referring to median prices on it.

But he'll claim semantics again. Or some other bullshit. Its all in his head.

GNL says

https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/home-foreclosures-increase-nevada-florida-maryland-july-2025/?cid=eml__1946%3A66e221571a4446d4e6969d41%3Arm202508181030_Marketing_Consumer_Daily_EditorialRSSDynamic

But...but the Housing Experts of PatNet!

AD says

I think TenPoundBass lives in South Florida like Hollywood or Pompano Beach. I just like following his posts about complying with Florida housing code in particular for electrical and mechanical.

TenPoundBase is also a gifted programmer. He sent me some SQL code that I incorporated into a dispatch program. I understand that TPB is self-taught, but his code It solved an issue for me that degreed software engineers were unable to fix.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/30/apartment-rents-drop-in-july-as-vacancies-move-to-multi-year-high.html

Apartment rents drop in July as vacancies move to multiyear high

HeadSet says

TenPoundBase is also a gifted programmer. He sent me some SQL code that I incorporated into a dispatch program. I understand that TPB is self-taught, but his code It solved an issue for me that degreed software engineers were unable to fix.

We haven't heard from him in a while.

Again:



Soon to be followed up with Wookie commentary about how I am referring to a 'lower median' when I did no such thing...nor have I.

"But you IMPLIED it!"

MolotovCocktail says

So? It's a circle jerk. Doesn't give you license to post fucking wrong shit and think you can get away with it. Like all the crap you posted last year and before about rates would go down and that would motivate buyers to come back. Then you got hissy when I said that wasn't probably gonna happen.

It didn't happen. Period.

FUCKING WRONG

Yes I forecasted the 30 year mortgage rate would go down to at least 6%, and to encourage buying down 4 discount points to bring it to 5%, which is like lowering the price 10%.

I did not get hissy as I said that this was an extraordinary time as far as mortgage rates.

And the Bay County economic development alliance is not a "circle jerk". Its to understand global and national economics and demographics and apply it to the county as far as attaining sustainable growth.

.

AD says

encourage buying down 4 discount points to bring it to 5%

That reminds me of the old "3-2-1 Buydown" process from back when mortgages were double digit.

AD says

And the Bay County economic development alliance is not a "circle jerk". Its to understand global and national economics and demographics and apply it to the county as far as attaining sustainable growth.

Really? And if you went to them with Wookie's IMPLIED this and ASSUMED that to justify his BS arguments, how would grandees at the Bay Area Circle Jerk respond?

MolotovCocktail says

AD says

And the Bay County economic development alliance is not a "circle jerk". Its to understand global and national economics and demographics and apply it to the county as far as attaining sustainable growth.

Really? And if you went to them with Wookie's IMPLIED this and ASSUMED that to justify his BS arguments, how would grandees at the Bay Area Circle Jerk respond?

I don't discuss Wookie's comments at the Bay County economic development alliance, nor I discuss your comments.

I do bring up concepts that are in Patrick's Housing Trap as far as discuss housing "sustainability" related to job growth in local sectors like manufacturing including the shipyard and new aerospace companies among others.

.

AD says

don't discuss Wookie's comments at the Bay County economic development alliance,

Smart move.

Yeah, population growing only by about 4.5% over next 20 years but new housing starts are at least 1 million a year :-/

Looks like based on below table from Congressional Budget Office that there is more new housing starts than needed based on population growth

**********************************************************************************************

# Projected U.S. Population vs. New Housing Starts (2025–2044)

## Summary

The U.S. population is projected to grow from roughly 350 million in 2025 to about 366.4 million in 2044, based on CBO’s assumed annual growth rates of 0.4% between 2025 and 2035 and 0.1% between 2036 and 2055. Over the same period, the Congressional Budget Office forecasts new housing starts averaging 1.68 million units per year from 2025 to 2029, declining to 1.52 million from 2030 to 2033, 1.10 million from 2034 to 2043, and 0.80 million in 2044.

---

## Projections Table

| Year | Population (millions) | New Housing Starts (millions of units) |
|------|-----------------------|----------------------------------------|
| 2025 | 350.0 | 1.68 |
| 2026 | 351.4 | 1.68 |
| 2027 | 352.8 | 1.68 |
| 2028 | 354.2 | 1.68 |
| 2029 | 355.6 | 1.68 |
| 2030 | 357.1 | 1.52 |
| 2031 | 358.5 | 1.52 |
| 2032 | 359.9 | 1.52 |
| 2033 | 361.4 | 1.52 |
| 2034 | 362.8 | 1.10 |
| 2035 | 363.2 | 1.10 |
| 2036 | 363.5 | 1.10 |
| 2037 | 363.9 | 1.10 |
| 2038 | 364.3 | 1.10 |
| 2039 | 364.6 | 1.10 |
| 2040 | 365.0 | 1.10 |
| 2041 | 365.4 | 1.10 |
| 2042 | 365.7 | 1.10 |
| 2043 | 366.1 | 1.10 |
| 2044 | 366.4 | 0.80 |

---

## Sources

1. Congressional Budget Office, The Demographic Outlook: 2025 to 2055
2. Congressional Budget Office, *The Outlook for Housing Starts*

---

## Additional Considerations

- Housing starts per 1,000 people will fall from about 4.8 units in 2025 to roughly 2.2 units in 2044, reflecting slower population growth and aging.
- Changes in average household size, remote-work trends, and immigration policy could materially shift both population and housing demand.
- Regional dynamics may vary widely—some metros could see persistent shortages even as national growth slows.

ChatGPT noted that the median home price today is around $420,000 and predicted it will rise to between $510,000 and $580,000 by 2030. It based its analysis on the assumption that home prices will grow 4% to 6% annually, inflation will average 2.5% to 3% and mortgage rates will remain within 5.5% to 7.5%.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/i-asked-chatgpt-whether-buying-a-house-will-become-more-affordable-in-5-years-here-s-what-it-said/ar-AA1KJfQF

MolotovCocktail says

Again:



Soon to be followed up with Wookie commentary about how I am referring to a 'lower median' when I did no such thing...nor have I.

"But you IMPLIED it!"

Prices don't say the same. 30 miles from me. I could pick 20 cities around 300 miles from me and prove that graph means nothing. https://www.zillow.com/home-values/13650/saint-charles-il/

Don't like Zillow, but it's still data.

MolotovCocktail says

You do realize we overbuilt in 2000-2008. We then stopped building. Population increased over the next 14 years with little to no building. Some hipster cities that had the demand built. The few that did are dealing with it now. Most the country is fine. Example above.

$440K is a reasonable price for a two income family that makes $120-150k/yr. Wife and I were making that in our 20's.

WookieMan says

You do realize we overbuilt in 2000-2008. We then stopped building. Population increased over the next 14 years with little to no building.

Yes, it was a dry spell from around 2007 to 2019: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST

Single family housing is drying up since 2007: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST1F

Work from home is declining so the hipster and young professional cities and counties need the job base to sustain that demographic. Look at how Oracle and Tesla moved to hipster and quirky Austin.

For Panama City Florida, there are major employers of Tyndall AFB and NAVSTA Panama City, and they are finishing Florida State University teaching hospital in Panama City Beach.

They are trying to make Panama City / Bay County into an advanced manufacturing center to bring in "young professionals" like below news in 2022:

"Yes, a new electric boat manufacturing operation is coming to Bay County, Florida. Mocama Marine LLC, a subsidiary of East Bay Capital, is establishing a boat manufacturing operation in Bay County, Florida. This operation will involve consolidating the manufacturing of Action Craft and SouthWind boat brands. The company is investing $10.5 million and creating 105 new jobs, according to the Bay Economic Development Alliance."

An unknown aviation company is currently looking to build a campus in Panama City and add 1400 jobs: https://www.wjhg.com/2025/08/07/two-companies-are-considering-coming-bay-county/