patrick.net

MolotovCocktail says

So? It's a circle jerk. Doesn't give you license to post fucking wrong shit and think you can get away with it. Like all the crap you posted last year and before about rates would go down and that would motivate buyers to come back. Then you got hissy when I said that wasn't probably gonna happen.

It didn't happen. Period.

FUCKING WRONG

Yes I forecasted the 30 year mortgage rate would go down to at least 6%, and to encourage buying down 4 discount points to bring it to 5%, which is like lowering the price 10%.

I did not get hissy as I said that this was an extraordinary time as far as mortgage rates.

And the Bay County economic development alliance is not a "circle jerk". Its to understand global and national economics and demographics and apply it to the county as far as attaining sustainable growth.

.

AD says

encourage buying down 4 discount points to bring it to 5%

That reminds me of the old "3-2-1 Buydown" process from back when mortgages were double digit.

AD says

And the Bay County economic development alliance is not a "circle jerk". Its to understand global and national economics and demographics and apply it to the county as far as attaining sustainable growth.

Really? And if you went to them with Wookie's IMPLIED this and ASSUMED that to justify his BS arguments, how would grandees at the Bay Area Circle Jerk respond?

MolotovCocktail says

AD says

And the Bay County economic development alliance is not a "circle jerk". Its to understand global and national economics and demographics and apply it to the county as far as attaining sustainable growth.

Really? And if you went to them with Wookie's IMPLIED this and ASSUMED that to justify his BS arguments, how would grandees at the Bay Area Circle Jerk respond?

I don't discuss Wookie's comments at the Bay County economic development alliance, nor I discuss your comments.

I do bring up concepts that are in Patrick's Housing Trap as far as discuss housing "sustainability" related to job growth in local sectors like manufacturing including the shipyard and new aerospace companies among others.

.

AD says

don't discuss Wookie's comments at the Bay County economic development alliance,

Smart move.

Yeah, population growing only by about 4.5% over next 20 years but new housing starts are at least 1 million a year :-/

Looks like based on below table from Congressional Budget Office that there is more new housing starts than needed based on population growth

**********************************************************************************************

# Projected U.S. Population vs. New Housing Starts (2025–2044)

## Summary

The U.S. population is projected to grow from roughly 350 million in 2025 to about 366.4 million in 2044, based on CBO’s assumed annual growth rates of 0.4% between 2025 and 2035 and 0.1% between 2036 and 2055. Over the same period, the Congressional Budget Office forecasts new housing starts averaging 1.68 million units per year from 2025 to 2029, declining to 1.52 million from 2030 to 2033, 1.10 million from 2034 to 2043, and 0.80 million in 2044.

---

## Projections Table

| Year | Population (millions) | New Housing Starts (millions of units) |
|------|-----------------------|----------------------------------------|
| 2025 | 350.0 | 1.68 |
| 2026 | 351.4 | 1.68 |
| 2027 | 352.8 | 1.68 |
| 2028 | 354.2 | 1.68 |
| 2029 | 355.6 | 1.68 |
| 2030 | 357.1 | 1.52 |
| 2031 | 358.5 | 1.52 |
| 2032 | 359.9 | 1.52 |
| 2033 | 361.4 | 1.52 |
| 2034 | 362.8 | 1.10 |
| 2035 | 363.2 | 1.10 |
| 2036 | 363.5 | 1.10 |
| 2037 | 363.9 | 1.10 |
| 2038 | 364.3 | 1.10 |
| 2039 | 364.6 | 1.10 |
| 2040 | 365.0 | 1.10 |
| 2041 | 365.4 | 1.10 |
| 2042 | 365.7 | 1.10 |
| 2043 | 366.1 | 1.10 |
| 2044 | 366.4 | 0.80 |

---

## Sources

1. Congressional Budget Office, The Demographic Outlook: 2025 to 2055
2. Congressional Budget Office, *The Outlook for Housing Starts*

---

## Additional Considerations

- Housing starts per 1,000 people will fall from about 4.8 units in 2025 to roughly 2.2 units in 2044, reflecting slower population growth and aging.
- Changes in average household size, remote-work trends, and immigration policy could materially shift both population and housing demand.
- Regional dynamics may vary widely—some metros could see persistent shortages even as national growth slows.

ChatGPT noted that the median home price today is around $420,000 and predicted it will rise to between $510,000 and $580,000 by 2030. It based its analysis on the assumption that home prices will grow 4% to 6% annually, inflation will average 2.5% to 3% and mortgage rates will remain within 5.5% to 7.5%.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/i-asked-chatgpt-whether-buying-a-house-will-become-more-affordable-in-5-years-here-s-what-it-said/ar-AA1KJfQF

MolotovCocktail says

Again:



Soon to be followed up with Wookie commentary about how I am referring to a 'lower median' when I did no such thing...nor have I.

"But you IMPLIED it!"

Prices don't say the same. 30 miles from me. I could pick 20 cities around 300 miles from me and prove that graph means nothing. https://www.zillow.com/home-values/13650/saint-charles-il/

Don't like Zillow, but it's still data.

MolotovCocktail says

You do realize we overbuilt in 2000-2008. We then stopped building. Population increased over the next 14 years with little to no building. Some hipster cities that had the demand built. The few that did are dealing with it now. Most the country is fine. Example above.

$440K is a reasonable price for a two income family that makes $120-150k/yr. Wife and I were making that in our 20's.

WookieMan says

You do realize we overbuilt in 2000-2008. We then stopped building. Population increased over the next 14 years with little to no building.

Yes, it was a dry spell from around 2007 to 2019: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST

Single family housing is drying up since 2007: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST1F

Work from home is declining so the hipster and young professional cities and counties need the job base to sustain that demographic. Look at how Oracle and Tesla moved to hipster and quirky Austin.

For Panama City Florida, there are major employers of Tyndall AFB and NAVSTA Panama City, and they are finishing Florida State University teaching hospital in Panama City Beach.

They are trying to make Panama City / Bay County into an advanced manufacturing center to bring in "young professionals" like below news in 2022:

"Yes, a new electric boat manufacturing operation is coming to Bay County, Florida. Mocama Marine LLC, a subsidiary of East Bay Capital, is establishing a boat manufacturing operation in Bay County, Florida. This operation will involve consolidating the manufacturing of Action Craft and SouthWind boat brands. The company is investing $10.5 million and creating 105 new jobs, according to the Bay Economic Development Alliance."

An unknown aviation company is currently looking to build a campus in Panama City and add 1400 jobs: https://www.wjhg.com/2025/08/07/two-companies-are-considering-coming-bay-county/

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/18/yieldstreet-real-estate-bets-customer-losses.html

How Yieldstreet’s real estate bets left customers with massive losses

He invested $400,000 in two real estate projects: A luxury apartment building in downtown Nashville overseen by former WeWork CEO Adam Neumann’s family office, and a three-building renovation in the Chelsea neighborhood of New York. Each project had targeted annual returns of around 20%.

Three years later, Klish said he has little hope of ever seeing his money again. Yieldstreet declared the Nashville project a total loss in May, according to an investor letter, wiping out $300,000 of his funds. The Chelsea deal needs to raise fresh capital to avoid a similar fate, according to another letter. Both letters were reviewed by CNBC.

Of the 30 deals that CNBC reviewed information on, four have been declared total losses by Yieldstreet. Of the rest, 23 are deemed to be on “watchlist” by the startup as it seeks to recoup value for investors, sometimes by raising more funds from members. Three deals are listed as “active,” though they have stopped making scheduled payouts, according to the documents.

Additionally, Yieldstreet shut down a real estate investment trust made up of six of the above projects last year as its value plunged by nearly half, locking up customer money for at least two years.

WookieMan says

$120-150k/yr. Wife and I were making that in our 20's.

Yet you're just now buying a $700K home. Sounds legit. Sorry to call you out but, you're always talking about how much money you and the wife make. And how smart you are and how much you know about real estate. You should be a real estate king by now living la vida loca in like Palm Beach or something. Something seems off to me.

If you knew as much as you claim, you would have bought real estate by the boatload 15 years ago.

My son inlaw's grandfather built a billion dollar real estate empire by himself.

GNL says

My son inlaw's grandfather built a billion dollar real estate empire by himself.

His 5 daughters, grandchildren and great grandchildren are living off of what he built. Only one grandson is working to grow the empire.

Glock-n-Load says

His 5 daughters, grandchildren and great grandchildren are living off of what he built. Only one grandson is working to grow the empire.

My parents were lower middle class. While I never went without food, or a roof over my head, when I struck out on my own, I had very little. No car, little savings, student loan debt, no job skills. Parents basically washed their hands of me. Yanked the hand-me-down car whose title they held, which was their right to do, and so my impoverished adventure began. But I knew I had nobody to rely on, no familial wealth to tap, it was up to me. OTOH, I was a Deadhead, which took the edge off of the situation, and gave me a perspective on the absudity of the system we live in. Stumbling forward, I managed to build a career, punctuated by many bouts of unemployment. Breakthrough came when a colleague showed me the ropes of starting companies, which I did. Lots of ups and downs, but had two successful exits. I am now in the 5-6% wealth percentile, which, considering where I came from, is quite an accomplishment, I must say. But it was that fear of being homeless with no one to rely on that drove me forward. Frugality by necessity and desperation. That never leaves you.

GNL says

Yet you're just now buying a $700K home. Sounds legit. Sorry to call you out but, you're always talking about how much money you and the wife make. And how smart you are and how much you know about real estate. You should be a real estate king by now living la vida loca in like Palm Beach or something. Something seems off to me.

If you knew as much as you claim, you would have bought real estate by the boatload 15 years ago.

Unfortunately you or anyone here don't know my life beside what I choose to share on the site and none of it is a lie. I could make $3M/yr and would still only build a $700k house. I'd rather have fun and live life instead of spend it on a house I sleep 8 hours, do laundry, shower, poop, mow and clean another 2-4 hours a day with 3 kids. Then go to their games and I'm not there another 2-4 hours. Then still work.

It was time to upgrade. I'm the lottery winner that puts all the money in safe funds. Doesn't buy expensive cars. I travel and have experiences with my kids. A house was not high on the priority list. Teens and myself pushing 6'2"-6-4" in 1,263SF is not realistic. 2 baths. Shared bedrooms.

Also I ran a real estate brokerage. I know real estate. I spot bull shit when I see it. Let me know where I've stated to be a real estate mogul? I don't want that life. It's all smiles and bull shit for those that are active real estate investors. Their life is miserable. Hell mine was.

The money thing also is about it's not that difficult to make it. Guys sitting on the back of a truck on the wife's crews make $90-120k as an individual. Get a wife making $30k/yr and you can easily afford at $350-$450k home and be within the 3X rule. Starting to question that pat netters make little money. Tone of jealously lately in the comments. Sorry I chose to make my life good, my bad???

Al_Shapton,

I grew up the same way. I mentioned the son inlaw’s grandfather and what he accomplished because that is an actual accomplishment compared to some of the braggadocio I hear on Pat.net. That’s all.

The son in law is a grade A prick. No doubt about it. I focus on the grandkids. I sure hope they turn out to be better people than him and my daughter.

Wookie,

I think you’re confusing jealousy with small dick syndrome. Maybe?

Glock-n-Load says

Wookie,

I think you’re confusing jealousy with small dick syndrome. Maybe?

I'm just fine. Not sure why another man on a website is concerned about my dick though. That's a little strange.

WookieMan says

You do realize we overbuilt in 2000-2008. We then stopped building. Population increased over the next 14 years with little to no building. Some hipster cities that had the demand built. The few that did are dealing with it now. Most the country is fine. Example above.

WookieMan says

Also I ran a real estate brokerage. I know real estate

Sure you do.

https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1957789162683187525

"For the first time in history, a NEW home in the US costs $33,500 LESS than an EXISTING home[.]"

Out here in silicon valley that's probably been the case for quite a while. All the good locations have been built decades ago. So you can either get a $250k crap-shack on a $2MM piece of dirt in a good location or a $1MM McMansion on a $1MM piece of dirt overlooking the 8-lane highway.

AD says

Looks like based on below table from Congressional Budget Office that there is more new housing starts than needed based on population growth

If Democrats gain control of immigration we'll have another 5MM person gain each year. The only mitigating factor is that the country will be become as prosperous as the least prosperous country from which people can get here. Then we still won't have enough housing, but instead the housing will be mis-matched to what the buyers can afford — we'll need more lower-cost housing.

SunnyvaleCA says

AD says
Looks like based on below table from Congressional Budget Office that there is more new housing starts than needed based on population growth

If Democrats gain control of immigration we'll have another 5MM person gain each year. The only mitigating factor is that the country will be become as prosperous as the least prosperous country from which people can get here. Then we still won't have enough housing, but instead the housing will be mis-matched to what the buyers can afford — we'll need more lower-cost housing.

Yes, its called Cloward Piven Strategy as far as open border + welfare state, and all part of a anarch tyranny mindset.

I agree as the country will be in some metaphorical cognitive dissonance fixated on population growth driving GDP (ignoring GDP per capita) and fixated on the Democrat creed of "a secure border is not an American value", while smugly refusing to recognize the USA is only one rung above Mexico.

Maybe expensive housing zip codes will end up like Detroit-style ghettos as part of that Cloward Piven Strategy reset.

.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

My parents were lower middle class. While I never went without food, or a roof over my head, when I struck out on my own, I had very little.

Same here. Was one of four and my dad never earned all that much. Constantly told us we'd have to pay for our own college.

I switched majors a dozen times, graduated with a useless German degree, worked in a bookstore, then went back and got a computer engineering (chip design) degree. Never did design any chips, but got decent software jobs and put everything into the stock market rather than a house, because I can do math.

Was able to retire 10 years early. Not really rich, but at least I'm done if I want to be.

Patrick says

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

My parents were lower middle class. While I never went without food, or a roof over my head, when I struck out on my own, I had very little.

Same here. Was one of four and my dad never earned all that much. Constantly told us we'd have to pay for our own college.

I switched majors a dozen times, graduated with a useless German degree, worked in a bookstore, then went back and got a computer engineering (chip design) degree. Never did design any chips, but got decent software jobs and put everything into the stock market rather than a house, because I can do math.

Was able to retire 10 years early. Not really rich, but at least I'm done if I want to be.

I grew up basically white trash - son of immigrants and a peasant mother. Man of the house by 8 years old because my dad died.

Pennies roll away in fear lest I pinch them. No, not really, but having to do adult shit when you're little gets you jaded pretty quickly. It's a handicap, because I never drink the Kool Aid, so I'm not a "team player."

I know, I know - "You might feel a little sting. That's pride. Fuck pride."

https://youtu.be/lH8_4AiIxeo
The math explanation make sense!
Particularly FED is forced by Trump to lower the interest rate that will bump up inflation.

Lower rates won't save housing. Demographics and Affordability Crisis flexing to pound down the upjumped asset prices will.

What will a point rate cut do? If $2800 is unaffordable, $2600 is hardly much better.

The Fed won't be cutting a full point overnight anyway.

What creates affordability? When the 1979 Al Bundy Special goes from $400k to $300k, without the rate changing at all. $2200 is a lot more affordable than $2800

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

Lower rates won't save housing.

But...but...the Housing Experts of PatNet said...

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

When the 1979 Al Bundy Special goes from $400k to $300k, without the rate changing at all. $2200 is a lot more affordable than $2800

Mandatory 10% or even 20% down payments will do that for sure. No more PMI bullshit, too.

Yessir!

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

What creates affordability? When the 1979 Al Bundy Special goes from $400k to $300k, without the rate changing at all. $2200 is a lot more affordable than $2800

And even at $2200 with the 25% drop in price, the 70s Al Bundy Special is still more expensive than renting ($2075)

MolotovCocktail says

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

When the 1979 Al Bundy Special goes from $400k to $300k, without the rate changing at all. $2200 is a lot more affordable than $2800

Mandatory 10% or even 20% down payments will do that for sure. No more PMI bullshit, too.

Or just make more money? Novel concept that is not difficult to achieve, but is apparently hard to comprehend. Some people can't and just bitch about housing prices. Rent and enjoy, it's okay. Odds are high that when people buy they'll then bitch about maintenance because they don't know any trades to fix things. So maybe it's a good thing some can't own?

I'll take a $750k home that will probably be $1.5M in 20 years and sell with tax free income. And yes, I know $500k is the cap married, but that will change in 20 years because of the devaluation of the dollar. Imagine getting a check for $800k and not paying a dime to the IRS and the loan is likely paid off. I'm 62 at that time and have another $4-7M in retirement funds. I'll take that $1.5M add on while still investing and have a roof over my head. You can still invest as much as a renter while owning. I've never understood that view here. I think it's because most can't own. Not my problem.

WookieMan says

Or just make more money? Novel concept that is not difficult to achieve, b

"Let them eat cake" or "Let them drive Teslas"

AGAIN: There's the bullshit imaginary world in your head vs reality.

Not seeing any crash, just price reductions, stagnation of house prices and a sluggish market. Interest rates cuts have been signaled so mortgage rates will likely come down by 50bp at least, halting the decline.

MolotovCocktail says

"Let them eat cake" or "Let them drive Teslas"

AGAIN: There's the bullshit imaginary world in your head vs reality.

What does a Tesla have anything to do with this? I won't buy one. Make money dude. It's not hard. I despise the people that cry poor. That's on you.

mell says

Not seeing any crash, just price reductions, stagnation of house prices and a sluggish market. Interest rates cuts have been signaled so mortgage rates will likely come down by 50bp at least, halting the decline.

Yup. Some get it, some don't. Patrick being the anomaly, most renters are butt hurt they can't buy a house. It's not homeowners fault. We saved and made more and bought. Outside of 2006-08 most have done well for themselves as owners. Jealousy is a hard pill to swallow for some.

WookieMan says

What does a Tesla have anything to do with this? I won't buy one.