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Housing prices will not go down...


               
2025 Jan 2, 7:23pm   21,755 views  602 comments

by anon5525   follow (0)  

... because immigration will not go down. Housing prices are controlled by supply and demand. There is no space in any urban area to build more housing. None. You can't insert land between two streets. The only way to increase supply is to steal people's homes through eminent domain and tear them down to build higher density apartments

So the only way to decrease real prices is to decrease demand, and the only way to do that is to kick out all illegal immigrants and anchor babies. Will Trump do this? Almost certainly not. Even with control over all three branches of the government, the Republicans are not going to get rid of all the illegals who are driving up housing prices and social welfare costs. I wish that I was wrong about this, but I'm not.

The United States population reached 200 million on November 20, 1967. If there was no net migration, then the U.S. population have stabilized to about 220 million. Instead, the population is 335 million. This is why housing is so expensive. This is why rent is so damn high. This is why the younger generations cannot afford to have children. This is why the only way to keep the population from falling is to import massive numbers of unskilled, uneducated, and often criminal immigrants. Both parties are responsible for this: democrats for importing voters and republicans for importing farm laborers. Both parties want cheap labor.

When you import massive numbers of low-iq, low-skill workers, your per capital GDP declines relative to where it would have been otherwise. Yes, technological advancements mask this because technology increases GDP faster than low-skill immigration decreases it, but most of those gains don't get seen by the middle class.

Since both parties, and their corporate overlords, are benefiting from the current system, immigration will continue and housing prices will also continue to rise. I suppose I shouldn't care since I own and have a 2.25% mortgage that is being eaten away by inflation, but anyone young enough that they having bought already is fucked.

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333   FortWayneHatesRealtors   2025 Aug 24, 1:20pm  

Fed signaled rate reduction, expect prices to go up.

Debt slavery is what America is ran on. Fucking government still backs 30 year mortgages.
334   AD   2025 Aug 24, 2:21pm  

Fortwaye says

Fed signaled rate reduction, expect prices to go up.

Debt slavery is what America is ran on. Fucking government still backs 30 year mortgages.


yep, modern monetary theory and inflate out of a debt crisis

but also they want 2% annual inflation as the ideal setting to avoid people thinking we are in a deflationary spiral

people will just sit on sidelines waiting for prices to further drop such as for housing "assets'

the 2% annual inflation agenda of the central banks incentivizes (or coerces?) the people to not "wait it out" and to buy now

.
335   BigSky   2025 Aug 24, 8:03pm  

WookieMan says

Starting to question that pat netters make little money. Tone of jealously lately in the comments.

Uh, no. I would say Patnetters in general are doing well. Some are just wondering about the credibility of your bag of brag. You keep saying how you have been making bank for years, are rolling in dough now, and will be filthy rich when you retire. If you have so much loot, why do you now have kids sharing a room in a small house with two bathrooms? And why is your builder making you get a construction loan in the first place? Did he not trust that you had any money? When I bought a newly constructed house I did not have to pay for it until closing, which occurs after the house was built and had an occupancy permit. Same with everyone I know that bought new construction. The only folks I know that did construction loans are builders and self-contractors, as construction loans are a VERY expensive way to borrow. Of course, from your posts it seems that when when you say "construction loan" it means a loan using your mother's stocks as collateral. And your mom is helping you out by purchasing your old tiny house.

Here is what you area asking use to believe:
Your wife makes upwards of $650k per year yet you need a loan to construct a house. Why not use some of that $10,000 per week take home pay to fund the build as you go? After all, construction loans only pay the builder in stages, and then only after inspections and lien releases. Are we supposed to believe that all that salary goes directly into untouchable retirement accounts or pays for travel vacations? None of your massive cash over the years went into money market accounts, treasuries, or CDs? It would certainly be better to use this cash and lose 4% or so when a construction loan will cost at least twice that for interest alone, not including other fees and costs.
336   Glock-n-Load   2025 Aug 24, 8:25pm  

I’ll take what is a stay at home drunk for $500 Alex.
337   MolotovCocktail   2025 Aug 25, 3:09pm  

WookieMan says

Starting to question that pat netters make little money. Tone of jealously lately in the comments


Made up in your head. "Calling Wookie out on his bullshit" = jealousy
339   WookieMan   2025 Aug 31, 4:13am  

What does $1.4M'ish mean? Location and what it originally sold for not just ish? This isn't data or any relevant information. Looks like a 90's build with an old asphalt driveway. Don't know what it looks like on the inside, likely dated. Remember the 80's glass block phase in construction? Well that's what 90's builds look like, old.

MolotovCocktail says

Made up in your head. "Calling Wookie out on his bullshit" = jealousy

Give actual data and not bullshit X posts. Links. Outside of one small phase of life, when everyone was eating crap, people have always been jealous of me, my family, my relatives, etc. I don't make anything up here. Just what I see in real life. Not what some jackass posted on X or facebook. I use verifiable data.

You troll a bunch of sites as a hobby. I don't know if you're a boomer or some unemployed person. What you posted above is of zero value or information. Never stated any skills you have. What you have is called an addiction. You troll everyone here and always have.
340   MolotovCocktail   2025 Aug 31, 9:02am  

WookieMan says


builds look like, old.

MolotovCocktail says
Made up in your head. "Calling Wookie out on his bullshit" = jealousy

Give actual data and not bullshit X posts.


Non sequitur. Has nothing to do with your 'jealousy' claims. Another problem you have.

WookieMan says


have always been jealous of me, my family, my relatives


Again.

WookieMan says


I don't make anything up here.


You do all the time. You are doing it now.

WookieMan says


What you posted above is of zero value or information


What's the title and subject of this thread? It's not the 'Everyone is jealous of WookieMan Thread'. But that's what you think it is.
341   MolotovCocktail   2025 Aug 31, 9:27am  

...but only in the hipster coastal cities.


342   Glock-n-Load   2025 Aug 31, 10:54am  

MolotovCocktail says





Why didn’t you post the addy?
343   MolotovCocktail   2025 Aug 31, 12:26pm  

Glock-n-Load says


MolotovCocktail says






Why didn’t you post the addy?



Not mine to post. That's someone else's post I was reposting. Main purpose: to definitely troll one of our Housing Experts of PatNet into posting something(s) stupid in response. Worked like a charm.
344   GNL   2025 Aug 31, 1:39pm  

@Patrick, I'm missing about 6 day's worth of comments on this thread.


345   Patrick   2025 Aug 31, 4:20pm  

@GNL

That's because you're ignoring the users who commented during that time. You can see them and unignore at:

https://patrick.net/edit_profile
346   Glock-n-Load   2025 Aug 31, 6:24pm  

Patrick says

GNL

That's because you're ignoring the users who commented during that time. You can see them and unignore at:

https://patrick.net/edit_profile

For 7 days they were the only one that posted?
347   WookieMan   2025 Aug 31, 10:30pm  

MolotovCocktail says

Glock-n-Load says



MolotovCocktail says







Why didn’t you post the addy?




Not mine to post. That's someone else's post I was reposting. Main purpose: to definitely troll one of our Housing Experts of PatNet into posting something(s) stupid in response. Worked like a charm.

So it didn’t happen. You don’t post data. You’re jealous of what others have that you don’t. You then turn a discussion into an argument debate and semantics. Post a link or what you say is BS.
348   MolotovCocktail   2025 Sep 1, 7:12am  

WookieMan says

So it didn’t happen


So once again your imaginary magical thinking takes over your brain.
349   MolotovCocktail   2025 Sep 1, 7:15am  

WookieMan says


You don’t post data


I do all the time. You just don't accept it. In this case you can look up the original post on your own, but don't want to.

WookieMan says


You’re jealous of what others have that you don’t.


Nope. And that has nothing to do with whether or not something happened.

WookieMan says


You then turn a discussion into an argument debate and semantics


Translation: I call out Wookie's 'expert' billshit.

WookieMan says


Post a link or what you say is BS.


That's rich coming from you. You post BS all the time. ALSO AGAIN:

MolotovCocktail says


In this case you can look up the original post on your own, but don't want to.


WookieMan says
350   MolotovCocktail   2025 Sep 1, 7:28am  

GNL says

Patrick, I'm missing about 6 day's worth of comments on this thread.





Curious. How is it you are you seeing them now?
351   WookieMan   2025 Sep 1, 9:21am  

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says

You don’t post data

I do all the time. You just don't accept it. In this case you can look up the original post on your own, but don't want to.

When what is posted has nothing, why would one look it up? That's a waste of time. The OP or commenter should have provided data. Opinions and anecdotal evidence are fine, but you claim things to be true without backing it up. Just screen shots from X and other memes and sites.
352   MolotovCocktail   2025 Sep 1, 9:25am  

WookieMan says


but you claim things to be true without backing it up


Stop projecting.

WookieMan says

Just screen shots from X and other memes and sites.


Just because you refuse to accept those doesn't mean I am not posting anything.
353   B.A.C.A.H.   2025 Sep 1, 1:53pm  

MolotovCocktail says

Just because you refuse to accept those doesn't mean I am not posting anything.

Jeez, Molotov, he always wants to add the last word.

It's (sadly) comical, if you think about it. Just Getalife, let it go and let him get in the last word.
354   MolotovCocktail   2025 Sep 1, 2:48pm  

B.A.C.A.H. says

MolotovCocktail says


Just because you refuse to accept those doesn't mean I am not posting anything.

Jeez, Molotov, he always wants to add the last word.

It's (sadly) comical, if you think about it. Just Getalife, let it go and let him get in the last word.



356   Glock-n-Load   2025 Sep 1, 8:18pm  

MolotovCocktail says

GNL says


Patrick, I'm missing about 6 day's worth of comments on this thread.





Curious. How is it you are you seeing them now?

I only put Wookie on ignore. I can’t imagine he’s the only one who made a comment during those 7 days.
357   WookieMan   2025 Sep 1, 8:43pm  

personal
358   WookieMan   2025 Sep 2, 10:54am  

WookieMan says

MolotovCocktail says


Just because you refuse to accept those doesn't mean I am not posting anything.

You probably shouldn't post anything. If you could teach retardation you're the professor.

Shocker. No troll response yet. You're a burden to this site. Take that as you will. It hurts new user sign ups and getting different content.
359   MolotovCocktail   2025 Sep 2, 12:58pm  

Glock-n-Load says


I only put Wookie on ignore. I can’t imagine he’s the only one who made a comment during those 7 days.


When he gets triggered by people who challenge his 'expertise', he goes on the warpath.

See? https://patrick.net/comment?comment_id=2203752
360   MolotovCocktail   2025 Sep 2, 12:59pm  

WookieMan says

WookieMan says


MolotovCocktail says



Just because you refuse to accept those doesn't mean I am not posting anything.

You probably shouldn't post anything. If you could teach retardation you're the professor.


Shocker. No troll response yet. You're a burden to this site. Take that as you will. It hurts new user sign ups and getting different content.


Translation: You can't stand having your bullshit exposed for what it truly is.
362   AD   2025 Sep 2, 6:26pm  

MolotovCocktail says









.

There is no lack of nationwide inventory with 9.2 months of supply and rents going down in Panama City Beach where a 3 bedroom 2 car garage rents for $2000.

Still no new construction after RD Offutt cleared the land for its Hathaway Luxury Apartments (about a mile west of Hathaway Bridge) last year.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSACSR

Maybe Trump going to offer vouchers to working class to help with rent or mortgage payments, which subsidizes the private equity firms that own apartments and single family homes.

Notice the default rate for multi-family mortgage backed securities is around 7% as recently reported by the Wolfman at Wolf Street website.

.
363   AD   2025 Sep 2, 7:51pm  

.

If this story becomes more commonplace think about the impact on housing prices (as well as rent prices) especially middle and upper class zip codes ?

what happens in San Fran Bay Area and Silicon Valley with a lot of layoffs and no foreign buyers ?

https://www.businessinsider.com/former-microsoft-worker-job-hunt-money-struggles-2025-9

Before he was fired last December, Mody Khan was earning a six-figure salary as a cloud solution architect at Microsoft. Nine months into his job search, he's at risk of losing his home.

.
364   WookieMan   2025 Sep 2, 8:16pm  

WookieMan says

personal

edit this comment to get it re-moderated



Someone is butt hurt.
365   AD   2025 Sep 2, 9:12pm  

Another way Trump can act is not bail out the private equity firms that own apartments and houses, but to lower the lending standards like allow a large debt to income ratio for mortgagees, in addition to giving home purchase vouchers (or tax credits) to the working class.
366   ForcedTQ   2025 Sep 2, 9:42pm  

Allowing large debt to income ratios to purchase housing will just lead more people who are absolutely shitty at managing money to be That much closer to impending foreclosure. Not a good thing to do for the people needing housing nor the communities it happens in. It will just enrich the FIRE economy that feeds on the churn….
367   SunnyvaleCA   2025 Sep 3, 1:56am  

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

What creates affordability? When the 1979 Al Bundy Special goes from $400k to $300k, without the rate changing at all. $2200 is a lot more affordable than $2800

The Zestimate™ for 641 Castlewood Ln, Deerfield, IL 60015 is $665k now! Guess it's in a pretty good location.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/641-Castlewood-Ln-Deerfield-IL-60015/4912314_zpid/
368   WookieMan   2025 Sep 3, 4:04am  

SunnyvaleCA says

The Zestimate™ for 641 Castlewood Ln, Deerfield, IL 60015 is $665k now! Guess it's in a pretty good location.

Deerfield is a wealthy suburb north of Chicago. A lot of Jews and athletes with $$$$. Chicago Bulls had their training center there during the Jordan years, Berto Center. Metra train line with commuting hour rides of only 47 minutes which would take 2 hours driving most days to get downtown. Lake Forest just to the north has the Bears practice facility, but a lot of those guy and staff live in Deerfield because it's closer to the highway downtown, plus it's cheaper than Lake Forest.

Not as high as New York, but north Chicagoland suburbs has a boatload of Jews. This where the more blue collar lives or low level white collar people live. https://www.zillow.com/home-values/20514/skokie-il/

Still close to the city. A two income home is affordable if going by the 3X income to price metric. If two people can make $60-70k each, owning is not out of reach at all at $350-400k.

The IL problem is that $350-400k home will probably hit you up for $9K roughly in property taxes annually. Nice thing is unless you need flood insurance, we have some of the cheapest rates for insurance. A hail storm and new roof is about 90% of the claims here. And for the one troll lately (not you Sunny), State Farm and All State headquarters are located here. I know plenty of employees and agents. I'm not making things up.
370   WookieMan   2025 Sep 3, 10:17am  

MolotovCocktail says




https://x.com/m3_melody/status/1963213700426338433

Cool. You trust a woman that looks like that?? For real? Then trust another random that name drops people no one knows. I think you're losing it dude. Show me, links, where this crash is coming? Hell even the hipster and coastal areas are not that bad. It's a modest drop. No one is going broke.
371   WookieMan   2025 Sep 3, 10:26am  

Surprised at the link to an image. I guess progress takes time. Still no proof besides a crazy looking chick that knows about nothing housing related. Lending is a business contract. Don't pay, you lose the house. Not complicated. No emotions.

And she's bat shit crazy that lenders won't do modifications. They will. They learned from 2008ish. Costs them more to foreclose instead of getting a payment every other month in the first 1-3 years. After that, foreclose. They got their amortized payment and at least broke even. The house would have to go down 20-30% for them to legit lose.
372   HeadSet   2025 Sep 3, 12:40pm  

WookieMan says

They learned from 2008ish. Costs them more to foreclose

A bigger issue than "cost to foreclose" is mark-to-market. In 2008, prices declined and turning a $450k loan asset into a $375k REO asset would mean less reserves and thus less ability to make future loans. If prices do not decline in today's market, and someone who bought 4 years ago and now defaults on a $450k balance on a home worth $475k (job loss or death of breadwinner), the bank will likely foreclose. It would seem that the bank would try loan modification like extend the term but increase the rate but still wind up with a lower payment. I have never seen that happen, though. It would also seem that when a bank does foreclose and acquires an REO, they would let a well-qualified buyer assume the loan. I never saw that, either.

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