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Housing prices will not go down...


               
2025 Jan 2, 7:23pm   21,725 views  601 comments

by anon5525   follow (0)  

... because immigration will not go down. Housing prices are controlled by supply and demand. There is no space in any urban area to build more housing. None. You can't insert land between two streets. The only way to increase supply is to steal people's homes through eminent domain and tear them down to build higher density apartments

So the only way to decrease real prices is to decrease demand, and the only way to do that is to kick out all illegal immigrants and anchor babies. Will Trump do this? Almost certainly not. Even with control over all three branches of the government, the Republicans are not going to get rid of all the illegals who are driving up housing prices and social welfare costs. I wish that I was wrong about this, but I'm not.

The United States population reached 200 million on November 20, 1967. If there was no net migration, then the U.S. population have stabilized to about 220 million. Instead, the population is 335 million. This is why housing is so expensive. This is why rent is so damn high. This is why the younger generations cannot afford to have children. This is why the only way to keep the population from falling is to import massive numbers of unskilled, uneducated, and often criminal immigrants. Both parties are responsible for this: democrats for importing voters and republicans for importing farm laborers. Both parties want cheap labor.

When you import massive numbers of low-iq, low-skill workers, your per capital GDP declines relative to where it would have been otherwise. Yes, technological advancements mask this because technology increases GDP faster than low-skill immigration decreases it, but most of those gains don't get seen by the middle class.

Since both parties, and their corporate overlords, are benefiting from the current system, immigration will continue and housing prices will also continue to rise. I suppose I shouldn't care since I own and have a 2.25% mortgage that is being eaten away by inflation, but anyone young enough that they having bought already is fucked.

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347   WookieMan   2025 Aug 31, 10:30pm  

MolotovCocktail says

Glock-n-Load says



MolotovCocktail says







Why didn’t you post the addy?




Not mine to post. That's someone else's post I was reposting. Main purpose: to definitely troll one of our Housing Experts of PatNet into posting something(s) stupid in response. Worked like a charm.

So it didn’t happen. You don’t post data. You’re jealous of what others have that you don’t. You then turn a discussion into an argument debate and semantics. Post a link or what you say is BS.
348   MolotovCocktail   2025 Sep 1, 7:12am  

WookieMan says

So it didn’t happen


So once again your imaginary magical thinking takes over your brain.
349   MolotovCocktail   2025 Sep 1, 7:15am  

WookieMan says


You don’t post data


I do all the time. You just don't accept it. In this case you can look up the original post on your own, but don't want to.

WookieMan says


You’re jealous of what others have that you don’t.


Nope. And that has nothing to do with whether or not something happened.

WookieMan says


You then turn a discussion into an argument debate and semantics


Translation: I call out Wookie's 'expert' billshit.

WookieMan says


Post a link or what you say is BS.


That's rich coming from you. You post BS all the time. ALSO AGAIN:

MolotovCocktail says


In this case you can look up the original post on your own, but don't want to.


WookieMan says
350   MolotovCocktail   2025 Sep 1, 7:28am  

GNL says

Patrick, I'm missing about 6 day's worth of comments on this thread.





Curious. How is it you are you seeing them now?
351   WookieMan   2025 Sep 1, 9:21am  

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says

You don’t post data

I do all the time. You just don't accept it. In this case you can look up the original post on your own, but don't want to.

When what is posted has nothing, why would one look it up? That's a waste of time. The OP or commenter should have provided data. Opinions and anecdotal evidence are fine, but you claim things to be true without backing it up. Just screen shots from X and other memes and sites.
352   MolotovCocktail   2025 Sep 1, 9:25am  

WookieMan says


but you claim things to be true without backing it up


Stop projecting.

WookieMan says

Just screen shots from X and other memes and sites.


Just because you refuse to accept those doesn't mean I am not posting anything.
353   B.A.C.A.H.   2025 Sep 1, 1:53pm  

MolotovCocktail says

Just because you refuse to accept those doesn't mean I am not posting anything.

Jeez, Molotov, he always wants to add the last word.

It's (sadly) comical, if you think about it. Just Getalife, let it go and let him get in the last word.
354   MolotovCocktail   2025 Sep 1, 2:48pm  

B.A.C.A.H. says

MolotovCocktail says


Just because you refuse to accept those doesn't mean I am not posting anything.

Jeez, Molotov, he always wants to add the last word.

It's (sadly) comical, if you think about it. Just Getalife, let it go and let him get in the last word.



356   Glock-n-Load   2025 Sep 1, 8:18pm  

MolotovCocktail says

GNL says


Patrick, I'm missing about 6 day's worth of comments on this thread.





Curious. How is it you are you seeing them now?

I only put Wookie on ignore. I can’t imagine he’s the only one who made a comment during those 7 days.
357   WookieMan   2025 Sep 1, 8:43pm  

personal
358   WookieMan   2025 Sep 2, 10:54am  

WookieMan says

MolotovCocktail says


Just because you refuse to accept those doesn't mean I am not posting anything.

You probably shouldn't post anything. If you could teach retardation you're the professor.

Shocker. No troll response yet. You're a burden to this site. Take that as you will. It hurts new user sign ups and getting different content.
359   MolotovCocktail   2025 Sep 2, 12:58pm  

Glock-n-Load says


I only put Wookie on ignore. I can’t imagine he’s the only one who made a comment during those 7 days.


When he gets triggered by people who challenge his 'expertise', he goes on the warpath.

See? https://patrick.net/comment?comment_id=2203752
360   MolotovCocktail   2025 Sep 2, 12:59pm  

WookieMan says

WookieMan says


MolotovCocktail says



Just because you refuse to accept those doesn't mean I am not posting anything.

You probably shouldn't post anything. If you could teach retardation you're the professor.


Shocker. No troll response yet. You're a burden to this site. Take that as you will. It hurts new user sign ups and getting different content.


Translation: You can't stand having your bullshit exposed for what it truly is.
362   AD   2025 Sep 2, 6:26pm  

MolotovCocktail says









.

There is no lack of nationwide inventory with 9.2 months of supply and rents going down in Panama City Beach where a 3 bedroom 2 car garage rents for $2000.

Still no new construction after RD Offutt cleared the land for its Hathaway Luxury Apartments (about a mile west of Hathaway Bridge) last year.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSACSR

Maybe Trump going to offer vouchers to working class to help with rent or mortgage payments, which subsidizes the private equity firms that own apartments and single family homes.

Notice the default rate for multi-family mortgage backed securities is around 7% as recently reported by the Wolfman at Wolf Street website.

.
363   AD   2025 Sep 2, 7:51pm  

.

If this story becomes more commonplace think about the impact on housing prices (as well as rent prices) especially middle and upper class zip codes ?

what happens in San Fran Bay Area and Silicon Valley with a lot of layoffs and no foreign buyers ?

https://www.businessinsider.com/former-microsoft-worker-job-hunt-money-struggles-2025-9

Before he was fired last December, Mody Khan was earning a six-figure salary as a cloud solution architect at Microsoft. Nine months into his job search, he's at risk of losing his home.

.
364   WookieMan   2025 Sep 2, 8:16pm  

WookieMan says

personal

edit this comment to get it re-moderated



Someone is butt hurt.
365   AD   2025 Sep 2, 9:12pm  

Another way Trump can act is not bail out the private equity firms that own apartments and houses, but to lower the lending standards like allow a large debt to income ratio for mortgagees, in addition to giving home purchase vouchers (or tax credits) to the working class.
366   ForcedTQ   2025 Sep 2, 9:42pm  

Allowing large debt to income ratios to purchase housing will just lead more people who are absolutely shitty at managing money to be That much closer to impending foreclosure. Not a good thing to do for the people needing housing nor the communities it happens in. It will just enrich the FIRE economy that feeds on the churn….
367   SunnyvaleCA   2025 Sep 3, 1:56am  

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

What creates affordability? When the 1979 Al Bundy Special goes from $400k to $300k, without the rate changing at all. $2200 is a lot more affordable than $2800

The Zestimate™ for 641 Castlewood Ln, Deerfield, IL 60015 is $665k now! Guess it's in a pretty good location.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/641-Castlewood-Ln-Deerfield-IL-60015/4912314_zpid/
368   WookieMan   2025 Sep 3, 4:04am  

SunnyvaleCA says

The Zestimate™ for 641 Castlewood Ln, Deerfield, IL 60015 is $665k now! Guess it's in a pretty good location.

Deerfield is a wealthy suburb north of Chicago. A lot of Jews and athletes with $$$$. Chicago Bulls had their training center there during the Jordan years, Berto Center. Metra train line with commuting hour rides of only 47 minutes which would take 2 hours driving most days to get downtown. Lake Forest just to the north has the Bears practice facility, but a lot of those guy and staff live in Deerfield because it's closer to the highway downtown, plus it's cheaper than Lake Forest.

Not as high as New York, but north Chicagoland suburbs has a boatload of Jews. This where the more blue collar lives or low level white collar people live. https://www.zillow.com/home-values/20514/skokie-il/

Still close to the city. A two income home is affordable if going by the 3X income to price metric. If two people can make $60-70k each, owning is not out of reach at all at $350-400k.

The IL problem is that $350-400k home will probably hit you up for $9K roughly in property taxes annually. Nice thing is unless you need flood insurance, we have some of the cheapest rates for insurance. A hail storm and new roof is about 90% of the claims here. And for the one troll lately (not you Sunny), State Farm and All State headquarters are located here. I know plenty of employees and agents. I'm not making things up.
370   WookieMan   2025 Sep 3, 10:17am  

MolotovCocktail says




https://x.com/m3_melody/status/1963213700426338433

Cool. You trust a woman that looks like that?? For real? Then trust another random that name drops people no one knows. I think you're losing it dude. Show me, links, where this crash is coming? Hell even the hipster and coastal areas are not that bad. It's a modest drop. No one is going broke.
371   WookieMan   2025 Sep 3, 10:26am  

Surprised at the link to an image. I guess progress takes time. Still no proof besides a crazy looking chick that knows about nothing housing related. Lending is a business contract. Don't pay, you lose the house. Not complicated. No emotions.

And she's bat shit crazy that lenders won't do modifications. They will. They learned from 2008ish. Costs them more to foreclose instead of getting a payment every other month in the first 1-3 years. After that, foreclose. They got their amortized payment and at least broke even. The house would have to go down 20-30% for them to legit lose.
372   HeadSet   2025 Sep 3, 12:40pm  

WookieMan says

They learned from 2008ish. Costs them more to foreclose

A bigger issue than "cost to foreclose" is mark-to-market. In 2008, prices declined and turning a $450k loan asset into a $375k REO asset would mean less reserves and thus less ability to make future loans. If prices do not decline in today's market, and someone who bought 4 years ago and now defaults on a $450k balance on a home worth $475k (job loss or death of breadwinner), the bank will likely foreclose. It would seem that the bank would try loan modification like extend the term but increase the rate but still wind up with a lower payment. I have never seen that happen, though. It would also seem that when a bank does foreclose and acquires an REO, they would let a well-qualified buyer assume the loan. I never saw that, either.
373   WookieMan   2025 Sep 3, 1:21pm  

HeadSet says

It would seem that the bank would try loan modification like extend the term but increase the rate but still wind up with a lower payment. I have never seen that happen, though. It would also seem that when a bank does foreclose and acquires an REO, they would let a well-qualified buyer assume the loan. I never saw that, either.

Forbearance. Add months on. Way cheaper for the bank and they're able to label it as performing. So they can keep lending. Even then we're no where near the problems of 2006-08. Not even close.

I get what you're saying, but banks will approach it differently this time. I had to invoice banks on foreclosures for our services and we did short sales. They lost a shit ton of money more than they should have. Even if a semi crash is 1/10th as bad, it will be handled way differently. I know our resident troll will put his small brain to it, but I lived through it and made good money in real estate during those times. I know what I'm talking about.

Outside of a non-performing note an individual foreclosure on say a $300k house will cost $30-50k to the bank, wiping out years of interest payments. That's not including the non-payment of the loan for 12-24 months through the foreclosure process.
374   Glock-n-Load   2025 Sep 3, 5:25pm  

I do not believe the government will allow any real damage to occur in the housing sector.
375   AD   2025 Sep 3, 5:40pm  

Glock-n-Load says

I do not believe the government will allow any real damage to occur in the housing sector.


yep, at least going by what the "government" did around 2008 and having Zero Interest Rate Policy during Obama

like they said on CNBC around 2013 that 1/2 the gains of the stock market since 2008 was due to the Federal Reserve policies not because of productivity gains
376   WookieMan   2025 Sep 3, 6:40pm  

AD says

Glock-n-Load says
I do not believe the government will allow any real damage to occur in the housing sector.

yep, at least going by what the "government" did around 2008 and having Zero Interest Rate Policy during Obama

I think we're just back to a normal market and rates in most places. Double digit increases are done. Some are struggling, but it's not that bad at all. I'm looking at 3-5% gains across my region. I won't say the regions doing bad as i don't want the troll to come out of his cave. You cats know FL. Not good, but also not bad really.

I'll just plant this here... Coastal. https://www.zillow.com/home-values/4841/galveston-tx/
378   GNL   2025 Sep 3, 7:52pm  

I do not believe we have a real economy. It is managed. TPTB look at numbers. They are only concerned about numbers. It is over my head and my thoughts and beliefs would make most people think I'm a conspiracy theorist. There is a ledger high up that controls, or controls as best it can, the economy.
379   MolotovCocktail   2025 Sep 3, 8:17pm  

WookieMan says

Cool. You trust a woman that looks like that?? For real? Then trust another random that name drops people no one knows


More than I trust your bullshit

Lay off the booze.
380   MolotovCocktail   2025 Sep 3, 8:18pm  

WookieMan says

It's a modest drop. No one is going broke.


So the Housing Expert of PatNet declares!

Where's your links?
381   PeopleUnited   2025 Sep 3, 8:26pm  

GNL says


TPTB look at numbers. They are only concerned about numbers.

The are concerned about control. They are power hungry, and under the spell of Satan. They will not rest until they have full control. They think they can become gods. They will lose in the end of course. But not before a culmination of efforts in taking control of the last thing every human has in their possession, free will. The final insult to humanity will be when people are forced to decide to live in the beast system where only those who enter the hive mind technocracy are allowed to buy or sell, and those who refuse are martyred for their refusal to take the mark of the beast.

Even so, don’t take the mark. Your free will is the most important gift God gave you. Choose Him and choose life, forsake Him and embrace destruction of your very eternal soul.
382   WookieMan   2025 Sep 4, 2:54am  

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says


It's a modest drop. No one is going broke.


So the Housing Expert of PatNet declares!

Where's your links?

Plenty of links in above comments. You don't post links. You like picture books.
383   AD   2025 Sep 4, 7:59am  

.

a return to the mean, which should be around 2 as far as number unemployed to number of job openings

this all plays into housing and rent prices

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=p9aA

.
384   WookieMan   2025 Sep 4, 8:59am  

AD says

.

a return to the mean, which should be around 2 as far as number unemployed to number of job openings

this all plays into housing and rent prices

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=p9aA

.

Thank you for the link.

I think income is the bigger factor though. A lot of people stopped working after the housing crash and then covid. Family formation stopped/stalled and you could get away with a full time breadwinner and a part timer in most cases and in most areas without kids which is common now.

Unemployment is a bad metric as it's going to be low as people stopped looking for work. A teacher and a part time bartender with no kids can make $120k per year pretty easily. Income is the biggest factor. 90% of people are not going to be able to afford a coastal CA home. You can correct me but I think FL is a demographic issue and insurance issue for home ownership. It's a service based economy with a lot of seniors and people on vacation that need service. Basically low wage jobs. FL housing prices should technically be higher besides the super popular beach areas.
385   HeadSet   2025 Sep 4, 7:44pm  

WookieMan says

A teacher and a part time bartender with no kids can make $120k per year pretty easily.

Sure, if she has an OF page to boot. Illinois median income for a teacher is about $56k.
386   AD   2025 Sep 4, 8:03pm  

WookieMan says

Unemployment is a bad metric


yes its one metric, boy

you have to be a systems thinker like Patrick is

so examine many metrics on your socioeconomic health dashboard such as unemployment to open jobs ratio and labor participation rate

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART

.

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