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Housing prices will not go down...


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2025 Jan 2, 7:23pm   3,329 views  151 comments

by anon5525   ➕follow (0)   ignore (0)  

... because immigration will not go down. Housing prices are controlled by supply and demand. There is no space in any urban area to build more housing. None. You can't insert land between two streets. The only way to increase supply is to steal people's homes through eminent domain and tear them down to build higher density apartments

So the only way to decrease real prices is to decrease demand, and the only way to do that is to kick out all illegal immigrants and anchor babies. Will Trump do this? Almost certainly not. Even with control over all three branches of the government, the Republicans are not going to get rid of all the illegals who are driving up housing prices and social welfare costs. I wish that I was wrong about this, but I'm not.

The United States population reached 200 million on November 20, 1967. If there was no net migration, then the U.S. population have stabilized to about 220 million. Instead, the population is 335 million. This is why housing is so expensive. This is why rent is so damn high. This is why the younger generations cannot afford to have children. This is why the only way to keep the population from falling is to import massive numbers of unskilled, uneducated, and often criminal immigrants. Both parties are responsible for this: democrats for importing voters and republicans for importing farm laborers. Both parties want cheap labor.

When you import massive numbers of low-iq, low-skill workers, your per capital GDP declines relative to where it would have been otherwise. Yes, technological advancements mask this because technology increases GDP faster than low-skill immigration decreases it, but most of those gains don't get seen by the middle class.

Since both parties, and their corporate overlords, are benefiting from the current system, immigration will continue and housing prices will also continue to rise. I suppose I shouldn't care since I own and have a 2.25% mortgage that is being eaten away by inflation, but anyone young enough that they having bought already is fucked.

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67   WookieMan   2025 Jan 24, 4:54am  

AmericanKulak says

Housing "Economists" all work for NAR, Builders, Developers, etc. and will never see impending doom, even though we're already at early 90s levels of transactions despite 30% more population. The only announce permanent plateaus and a recovery in the next year.

The only building is rentals by corps. The new single family housing in my area is 0.8% over 20 years of existing housing stock. All of that in the last 2-3 years. We're becoming a nation of renters owned by the corporations. We'll give you a piss filled pool, shit common amenities, hear your upstairs neighbor have sex type experience for $3k/mo for a 2/2.

This is why I live in the country. Why I'm building. I don't share a wall now, but I'll never live in a condo or apartment. Maybe in the Caribbean to keep it cheaper, but that's it as I wouldn't live there full time.
69   WookieMan   2025 Jan 24, 10:26am  

DOGEWontAmountToShit says





Not disputing the graph at all. But feeling and being able to buy are two different things. Corporations bought up much of the homes after '08 and no one built. I witnessed this personally. What the hell did people think would happen? Prices went up and people couldn't or want to buy a home. A few won the lottery and got a cheap resale home.

If no one is moving and prices went up, only the high earners are going to buy if/when they have to. Then no building. Housing is going to be high for a long time, especially with most locked into 2-4% interest rates.
70   MolotovCocktail   2025 Jan 25, 8:30am  

WookieMan says

feeling and being able to buy are two different things.



71   B.A.C.A.H.   2025 Jan 25, 11:16am  

WookieMan says

H1B's likely didn't own.

You claim to have Extreme Knowledge about a place you've never lived, and never worked in the trenches, nor experienced first hand the facts on the ground.

The Bay Area, which has a GDP and population bigger than most states, is chocked full of H1 homeowners. I've known many of them.
72   RWSGFY   2025 Jan 25, 11:36am  

B.A.C.A.H. says

WookieMan says


H1B's likely didn't own.

You claim to have Extreme Knowledge about a place you've never lived, and never worked in the trenches, nor experienced first hand the facts on the ground.

The Bay Area, which has a GDP and population bigger than most states, is chocked full of H1 homeowners. I've known many of them.


Second that.
73   MolotovCocktail   2025 Jan 25, 12:08pm  

B.A.C.A.H. says

You claim to have Extreme Knowledge about a place you've never lived, and never worked in the trenches, nor experienced first hand the facts on the ground.


He does that all the time.
74   AD   2025 Jan 25, 1:43pm  

DOGEWontAmountToShit says


WookieMan says


feeling and being able to buy are two different things.






The 10 Yr Treasury is around 4.62% and it usually trends about 1.25% above CPI and/or PCE. It should be no more than 3.75% now.

And the 30 year mortgage now is around 7% and should be no more than 1.25% above the 10 Year Treasury rate.

Bond market and mortgage bond market are acting "rogue" ?

.
75   AD   2025 Jan 25, 1:47pm  

.

Where we live in the best place on Earth (Florida panhandle and within 2 miles of the white sand beach (albeit we got 7 inches of snow) and emerald water,
a 3 bedroom / 2.5 bath / 2 car garage townhome sold at peak (early 2022 when the 30 yr mortgage rate was 3%) for $330,000.

Now the sales price is $260,000 with the 30 year mortgage rate around 7%. Local household income has gone up about 25% since early 2022 to present day.

.
76   WookieMan   2025 Jan 25, 2:56pm  

B.A.C.A.H. says

You claim to have Extreme Knowledge about a place you've never lived, and never worked in the trenches, nor experienced first hand the facts on the ground.

California is not the rest of the country. It's the polar opposite. Even from New York. You guys don't get it. Live in your bubble and think that's how the rest of us live. Enjoy the suffering you created.
77   ForcedTQ   2025 Jan 25, 3:14pm  

AD says

DOGEWontAmountToShit says



WookieMan says



feeling and being able to buy are two different things.







The 10 Yr Treasury is around 4.62% and it usually trends about 1.25% above CPI and/or PCE. It should be no more than 3.75% now.

And the 30 year mortgage now is around 7% and should be no more than 1.25% above the 10 Year Treasury rate.

Bond market and mortgage bond market are acting "rogue" ?

.


It seems like people are demanding stock equity over bonds and that’s pressing the bond rate up to get them sold. Stock market returns have been very high last few years, bonds have got to keep up to be bought.
78   HeadSet   2025 Jan 25, 6:12pm  

ForcedTQ says

It seems like people are demanding stock equity over bonds and that’s pressing the bond rate up to get them sold.

Yep, plus Credit Unions currently offer 1-year CDs for 4% to 4.5%.
79   AD   2025 Jan 25, 6:26pm  

HeadSet says

ForcedTQ says

It seems like people are demanding stock equity over bonds and that’s pressing the bond rate up to get them sold.

Yep, plus Credit Unions currently offer 1-year CDs for 4% to 4.5%.


yep 10 Year Treasury issuer competing also with Schwab which offers 4.4% for 3 month CD

.
80   Tenpoundbass   2025 Jan 25, 6:31pm  

Trump seems to be hinting at Federal Permitting reform. That will open lands for the 10 new cities I have been talking about needs to happen.
81   MolotovCocktail   2025 Jan 25, 6:50pm  

Tenpoundbass says

Trump seems to be hinting at Federal Permitting reform. That will open lands for the 10 new cities I have been talking about needs to happen.


Permitting reform involves Congress. And that will require beating the filibuster.
82   AmericanKulakMaximumTrumper   2025 Jan 26, 4:41am  

If this is what fear of La Migra does to Kern County stores, imagine the impact on housing costs and infrastructure generally.


I suspect the numbers are vast, vastly higher than the estimates.
83   AmericanKulakMaximumTrumper   2025 Jan 26, 4:43am  

HeadSet says

clambo says


I have never met a rich woman who actually had her own money.

I had a neighbor lady who was a surgeon and quite well off. She lived with the father of her kids but refused to marry him.

Another neighbor was a beautiful rich Italian widow who was a great cook (best lasagna ever). She also had a long term live in boyfriend she did not marry, despite both being evangelical Christians.

Headset, this is pretty rare.
84   HeadSet   2025 Jan 26, 8:02am  

AmericanKulak says


Headset, this is pretty rare.

I agree, and the rich Italian widow inherited that money from her deceased husband.

My point was more that women with money takes steps to not lose it to a man.
85   FuckTheMainstreamMedia   2025 Jan 26, 12:28pm  

If Trump keeps up with the deportations I absolutely guarantee the housing market drops in So Cal, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Tucson, Albuquerque, Denver, and several Texas cities.
86   HeadSet   2025 Jan 26, 12:50pm  

FuckTheMainstreamMedia says

If Trump keeps up with the deportations I absolutely guarantee the housing market drops in So Cal, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Tucson, Albuquerque, Denver, and several Texas cities.

And Northern VA.
87   AD   2025 Jan 26, 4:58pm  

HeadSet says

FuckTheMainstreamMedia says

If Trump keeps up with the deportations I absolutely guarantee the housing market drops in So Cal, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Tucson, Albuquerque, Denver, and several Texas cities.

And Northern VA.


yeah like the barrios known as Manassas Park

.
88   MolotovCocktail   2025 Jan 31, 2:54pm  

B.A.C.A.H. says

WookieMan says


H1B's likely didn't own.

You claim to have Extreme Knowledge about a place you've never lived, and never worked in the trenches, nor experienced first hand the facts on the ground.

The Bay Area, which has a GDP and population bigger than most states, is chocked full of H1 homeowners. I've known many of them.


#2 on Best Comments, btw.
90   AD   2025 May 9, 9:47pm  

MolotovCocktail says


The Bay Area, which has a GDP and population bigger than most states, is chocked full of H1 homeowners. I've known many of them.


There were about 600,000 H1B visa workers in 2023. I believe there is a cap of 65,000 H1B approvals per year, so the 600,000 represent people who already got approved and had their visas renewed.

About 25% of H1B visas are in California, and 80% of those are in the San Fran Bay Area. So figure 120,000 H1B visa workers are in the San Fran Bay Area.

There were 2,793,526 homes in 2020 in San Fran Bay Area so even if 120,000 H1B visa workers owned a home, that would only be less than 5% of the housing inventory.

I'm not sure why the original poster B A C A H uses the language of chocked full when it is less than 5%.

.......................
91   Glock-n-Load   2025 May 10, 3:06pm  

MolotovCocktail says





Why is this a good thing?
92   WookieMan   2025 May 10, 4:32pm  

MolotovCocktail says

#2 on Best Comments, btw

Wasn't that good. How have your house prices been doing? Me thinks you can't afford to buy so you're bitter or don't own at all like most here.
93   MolotovCocktail   2025 May 11, 2:48pm  

WookieMan says

Wasn't that good.


Everyone else disagrees.
94   WookieMan   2025 May 11, 3:18pm  

MolotovCocktail says

Everyone else

Data for that? EVERYONE. Chose your words wisely before spouting off.
95   MolotovCocktail   2025 May 11, 5:42pm  

WookieMan says

Data for that? EVERYONE. Chose your words wisely before spouting off.


Haha. Sez the guy who has misused 'everyone' repeadedly.
96   WookieMan   2025 May 11, 8:44pm  

MolotovCocktail says

Haha. Sez the guy who has misused 'everyone' repeadedly.


MolotovCocktail says

Everyone else disagrees.

Who? 15k+ users? Everyone? Are you retarded? Almost 1.3M comments. You need to give me your drug dealers number.
97   MolotovCocktail   2025 May 11, 8:49pm  

WookieMan says


Who? 15k+ users? Everyone? Are you retarded? Almost 1.3M comments. You need to give me your drug dealers number.


Cut the crap. Again, you have nothing to stand on given how you've misused 'everybody' far worse than I ever could.

Wherease my case, the claim that it was #2 in Best Comments is defacto 'everyone'.

https://patrick.net/comment?comment_id=2139802
98   WookieMan   2025 May 12, 3:51am  

MolotovCocktail says

Wherease my case, the claim that it was #2 in Best Comments is defacto 'everyone'.

Nope. Not much else to say. You change your name every week so no one knows who you are and you run. You've changed accounts. Just admit you're a do nothing troll. 11k comments in under 2 years... bull shit. You've had multiple accounts and are a liar.

Been here 13 years and you have almost as many comments as I do. You resort to a porn thread basically. What is your value here? I sure as shit don't see one. Put me on ignore if you don't like it. Took me 13 years to your 2 to be 4 ignore shy of you? I think that speaks louder than trolling and porn photos. And yes photos of nude women is porn. No one wants you here and the actual stats I just gave you prove that.

Go post porn somewhere else. That is something a 17 year old with no life experience does and is living a fake life in mom's basement. Go get a woman. It's not hard if you have any value or don't look like shit.... So again, your drug dealers number would be nice to have. Sometimes a good brain melt is good for you. Enjoy your daily trolling and spamming of the site.
99   WookieMan   2025 May 12, 4:03am  

Add on: You know nothing about real estate. You've never owned, bought or sold a home. It's time to stop being a liar. It's unfortunate you cannot afford a home I guess, but you'd likely screw that up and your life up more than it already is. Let me know if you sold a home this week. I did for probably the 1,500th time.

Keep talking real estate like you know it. Liars are easy to spot. AD talks about specific markets. I've spent two years of my life helping my dad with RE from Pensacola to Tallahassee. AD brings facts and data. You just whine.
100   MolotovCocktail   2025 May 12, 8:45am  

WookieMan says


Nope. Not much else to say.


Yep. Not so much to say.

WookieMan says


You change your name every week so no one knows who you are and you run. You've changed accounts


No I don't. And so what if I did? Ad hominem.

WookieMan says


You've had multiple accounts and are a liar.


???

WookieMan says


No one wants you here and the actual stats I just gave you prove that.


Really? Anyone else agree with that? @Patrick?

WookieMan says


You know nothing about real estate. You've never owned, bought or sold a home. It's time to stop being a liar.


Wrong again.

All these wacko attacks don't change the fact that this comment got 8 likes and was #2 in Best Comments:

https://patrick.net/comment?comment_id=2139802
101   Fortwaye   2025 May 12, 8:58am  

ladies please, can you stop bickering over trivial crap?
102   MolotovCocktail   2025 May 12, 9:04am  

Fortwaye says

ladies please, can you stop bickering over trivial crap?


Tell that to Wookie. He's the one obsessing over all that shit that exists entirely in his head.
103   WookieMan   2025 May 12, 1:40pm  

MolotovCocktail says

No I don't. And so what if I did? Ad hominem.

Arguing about arguing. Tell tale sign of a troll. You change your name damn near weekly. You're the only user here ever with a GIF. Just admit you're a bull shitter. Patrick likely could look this up.

MolotovCocktail says

You know nothing about real estate. You've never owned, bought or sold a home. It's time to stop being a liar.

Wrong again.

You haven't owned a house. I can spot a fraud a mile away. I did it for a living so our clients didn't get screwed. You're a class A bull shit artist on the internet.

And FW he can just admit he's a liar. No shame in that. He puts comment on here that are patently false.
104   Eric Holder   2025 May 12, 1:44pm  

Glock-n-Load says


Why is this a good thing?


Cheaper to build apartment buildings. But where the fuck do the tenants go if the staircase is blocked by fire is an interesting question.
105   MolotovCocktail   2025 May 12, 5:53pm  

WookieMan says

Tell tale sign of a troll. You change your name damn near weekly.


No I don't. And even if I did, that's not a sign of a troll. And even if I am a troll, that doesn't mean I am lying.

WookieMan says

You haven't owned a house.


Untrue. Who is lying now?

WookieMan says

And FW he can just admit he's a liar. No shame in that. He puts comment on here that are patently false.


This is not false:

MolotovCocktail says

All these wacko attacks don't change the fact that this comment got 8 likes and was #2 in Best Comments:

https://patrick.net/comment?comment_id=2139802


...and THAT factual statement is what set Wookie off, folks. Remember? He doesn't want you to.
106   WookieMan   2025 May 12, 6:46pm  

MolotovCocktail says

MolotovCocktail says
All these wacko attacks don't change the fact that this comment got 8 likes and was #2 in Best Comments:

https://patrick.net/comment?comment_id=2139802

...and THAT factual statement is what set Wookie off, folks. Remember? He doesn't want you to.

Congrats on the participation award. Almost as many ignores as 1/10th my time here. You're a troll. Don't work. Don't own a home. Comment as much as I have in 13 years basically. I'm glad you accomplished getting likes. Totally matters to someone with a small dick on an anonymous forum.

You post trash and make no sense. My 6th grader is less childish than you. You do understand mosts likes of your comments are hate likes. It's like Lebron James. You sound immature and stupid like he does. Most likes are people that don't like you.

I'm not here for likes and childish picture books, memes and porn. That's something a child does. Write anything of substance that isn't a lie.

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