patrick.net

HeadSet says

clambo says

I have never met a rich woman who actually had her own money.

I had a neighbor lady who was a surgeon and quite well off. She lived with the father of her kids but refused to marry him.

Another neighbor was a beautiful rich Italian widow who was a great cook (best lasagna ever). She also had a long term live in boyfriend she did not marry, despite both being evangelical Christians.

Headset, this is pretty rare.

AmericanKulak says

Headset, this is pretty rare.

I agree, and the rich Italian widow inherited that money from her deceased husband.

My point was more that women with money takes steps to not lose it to a man.

If Trump keeps up with the deportations I absolutely guarantee the housing market drops in So Cal, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Tucson, Albuquerque, Denver, and several Texas cities.

FuckTheMainstreamMedia says

If Trump keeps up with the deportations I absolutely guarantee the housing market drops in So Cal, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Tucson, Albuquerque, Denver, and several Texas cities.

And Northern VA.

HeadSet says

FuckTheMainstreamMedia says

If Trump keeps up with the deportations I absolutely guarantee the housing market drops in So Cal, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Tucson, Albuquerque, Denver, and several Texas cities.

And Northern VA.

yeah like the barrios known as Manassas Park

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B.A.C.A.H. says

WookieMan says

H1B's likely didn't own.

You claim to have Extreme Knowledge about a place you've never lived, and never worked in the trenches, nor experienced first hand the facts on the ground.

The Bay Area, which has a GDP and population bigger than most states, is chocked full of H1 homeowners. I've known many of them.

#2 on Best Comments, btw.

MolotovCocktail says

The Bay Area, which has a GDP and population bigger than most states, is chocked full of H1 homeowners. I've known many of them.

There were about 600,000 H1B visa workers in 2023. I believe there is a cap of 65,000 H1B approvals per year, so the 600,000 represent people who already got approved and had their visas renewed.

About 25% of H1B visas are in California, and 80% of those are in the San Fran Bay Area. So figure 120,000 H1B visa workers are in the San Fran Bay Area.

There were 2,793,526 homes in 2020 in San Fran Bay Area so even if 120,000 H1B visa workers owned a home, that would only be less than 5% of the housing inventory.

I'm not sure why the original poster B A C A H uses the language of chocked full when it is less than 5%.

.......................

MolotovCocktail says

Why is this a good thing?

MolotovCocktail says

#2 on Best Comments, btw

Wasn't that good. How have your house prices been doing? Me thinks you can't afford to buy so you're bitter or don't own at all like most here.

WookieMan says

Wasn't that good.

Everyone else disagrees.

MolotovCocktail says

Everyone else

Data for that? EVERYONE. Chose your words wisely before spouting off.

WookieMan says

Data for that? EVERYONE. Chose your words wisely before spouting off.

Haha. Sez the guy who has misused 'everyone' repeadedly.

MolotovCocktail says

Haha. Sez the guy who has misused 'everyone' repeadedly.

MolotovCocktail says

Everyone else disagrees.

Who? 15k+ users? Everyone? Are you retarded? Almost 1.3M comments. You need to give me your drug dealers number.

WookieMan says

Who? 15k+ users? Everyone? Are you retarded? Almost 1.3M comments. You need to give me your drug dealers number.

Cut the crap. Again, you have nothing to stand on given how you've misused 'everybody' far worse than I ever could.

Wherease my case, the claim that it was #2 in Best Comments is defacto 'everyone'.

https://patrick.net/comment?comment_id=2139802

MolotovCocktail says

Wherease my case, the claim that it was #2 in Best Comments is defacto 'everyone'.

Nope. Not much else to say. You change your name every week so no one knows who you are and you run. You've changed accounts. Just admit you're a do nothing troll. 11k comments in under 2 years... bull shit. You've had multiple accounts and are a liar.

Been here 13 years and you have almost as many comments as I do. You resort to a porn thread basically. What is your value here? I sure as shit don't see one. Put me on ignore if you don't like it. Took me 13 years to your 2 to be 4 ignore shy of you? I think that speaks louder than trolling and porn photos. And yes photos of nude women is porn. No one wants you here and the actual stats I just gave you prove that.

Go post porn somewhere else. That is something a 17 year old with no life experience does and is living a fake life in mom's basement. Go get a woman. It's not hard if you have any value or don't look like shit.... So again, your drug dealers number would be nice to have. Sometimes a good brain melt is good for you. Enjoy your daily trolling and spamming of the site.

Add on: You know nothing about real estate. You've never owned, bought or sold a home. It's time to stop being a liar. It's unfortunate you cannot afford a home I guess, but you'd likely screw that up and your life up more than it already is. Let me know if you sold a home this week. I did for probably the 1,500th time.

Keep talking real estate like you know it. Liars are easy to spot. AD talks about specific markets. I've spent two years of my life helping my dad with RE from Pensacola to Tallahassee. AD brings facts and data. You just whine.

WookieMan says

Nope. Not much else to say.

Yep. Not so much to say.

WookieMan says

You change your name every week so no one knows who you are and you run. You've changed accounts

No I don't. And so what if I did? Ad hominem.

WookieMan says

You've had multiple accounts and are a liar.

???

WookieMan says

No one wants you here and the actual stats I just gave you prove that.

Really? Anyone else agree with that? @Patrick?

WookieMan says

You know nothing about real estate. You've never owned, bought or sold a home. It's time to stop being a liar.

Wrong again.

All these wacko attacks don't change the fact that this comment got 8 likes and was #2 in Best Comments:

https://patrick.net/comment?comment_id=2139802

ladies please, can you stop bickering over trivial crap?

Fortwaye says

ladies please, can you stop bickering over trivial crap?

Tell that to Wookie. He's the one obsessing over all that shit that exists entirely in his head.

MolotovCocktail says

No I don't. And so what if I did? Ad hominem.

Arguing about arguing. Tell tale sign of a troll. You change your name damn near weekly. You're the only user here ever with a GIF. Just admit you're a bull shitter. Patrick likely could look this up.

MolotovCocktail says

You know nothing about real estate. You've never owned, bought or sold a home. It's time to stop being a liar.

Wrong again.

You haven't owned a house. I can spot a fraud a mile away. I did it for a living so our clients didn't get screwed. You're a class A bull shit artist on the internet.

And FW he can just admit he's a liar. No shame in that. He puts comment on here that are patently false.

Glock-n-Load says

Why is this a good thing?

Cheaper to build apartment buildings. But where the fuck do the tenants go if the staircase is blocked by fire is an interesting question.

WookieMan says

Tell tale sign of a troll. You change your name damn near weekly.

No I don't. And even if I did, that's not a sign of a troll. And even if I am a troll, that doesn't mean I am lying.

WookieMan says

You haven't owned a house.

Untrue. Who is lying now?

WookieMan says

And FW he can just admit he's a liar. No shame in that. He puts comment on here that are patently false.

This is not false:

MolotovCocktail says

All these wacko attacks don't change the fact that this comment got 8 likes and was #2 in Best Comments:

https://patrick.net/comment?comment_id=2139802

...and THAT factual statement is what set Wookie off, folks. Remember? He doesn't want you to.

MolotovCocktail says

MolotovCocktail says
All these wacko attacks don't change the fact that this comment got 8 likes and was #2 in Best Comments:

https://patrick.net/comment?comment_id=2139802

...and THAT factual statement is what set Wookie off, folks. Remember? He doesn't want you to.

Congrats on the participation award. Almost as many ignores as 1/10th my time here. You're a troll. Don't work. Don't own a home. Comment as much as I have in 13 years basically. I'm glad you accomplished getting likes. Totally matters to someone with a small dick on an anonymous forum.

You post trash and make no sense. My 6th grader is less childish than you. You do understand mosts likes of your comments are hate likes. It's like Lebron James. You sound immature and stupid like he does. Most likes are people that don't like you.

I'm not here for likes and childish picture books, memes and porn. That's something a child does. Write anything of substance that isn't a lie.

WookieMan says

Don't work. Don't own a home.

And you accuse me of lying?

WookieMan says

I'm glad you accomplished getting likes

That second best comment was B.A.C.H.A's, not mine.

See. Even when you are trashing someone, you don't get it right.

from 2 January 2025 post on Calculated Risk Blog, yet prices have not gone down as much compared to just after mortgage applications peaked around 2005

Wolfman at Wolf Street has an article yesterday that shows total sales for residential units (homes, condos, townhomes, etc) at 1995 levels , worse than after the Great Financial Crisis (2007-2011)

along with MishTalk, the Wolfman at Wolf Street and The Calculated Risk Blog as the best sources for housing and finance

AD says

along with MishTalk, the Wolfman at Wolf Street and The Calculated Risk Blog as the best sources for housing and finance

We're in a normal market with balanced inventories. Some metros starting building at a faster rate for the inflow. Inventory is your key metric. People are staying in their homes longer because of rates. Millennials fled cities as they started families. Boomers retired and did their move.

Hell Millennials are moving up and the few boomers that aren't poor and don't have to keep working just downsized to those what would be smaller starter homes. Creates no inventory UNLESS your area built a bunch. It's when Boomers die or enter nursing homes which is still 10 years away on average. Probably 20.

Also 90% of builders are pure trash, so no one wants to buy new. Custom builders are killing it though. All the guys on my house are lifers and they're 45-55. Haven't seen a latino on my site. I generally don't have a problem with them, but there's generally a language barrier and things get messed up. Don't have the finished floor yet, but I'd eat off the subfloor. That how clean and precise my building and his contractors are.

The application index is just showing a normal market. Everyone blew their load to get in on low interest rates from 2016-2022. 2002-2008 was basically mortgage fraud. Like I said Millennials bought houses and the boomers that retired, sold and bought the Millennials houses to downsize when both were affordable. This idea that all boomers had McMansions is stupid. That was maybe 3-5% of housing if that.

Said it before your big risk markets are Nashville, Austin, Denver, Phoenix to an extent due to 55+ communities but that only influences a few, Boise, Tampa (maybe), Las Vegas is always on the list and I think Los Angeles is gonna have issues. These are larger metros that will bring national numbers down. New York I don't know, you got a lot of high paying banker jobs and real estate brokers that can make $60-200k a deal. Boston I could see taking a step down as I don't know why you'd live there. Similar thing with Chicago, but I think the bulk of the outflow has happened here.

It's not a good or bad time to buy. I just really wouldn't want to be in the cities above. That's where the losses are going to come from and freaks everyone out.

Topic for a different thread probably for those that live there. But 95% of tech people use is maxed out. Venture capitalist are probably going to move into different markets. So I could see an outflow from San Fransisco area, but that might be 8-10 years away. CA has a high floor because of weather though and people just stay. Or live in a tent.

TL:DR - The real estate market is fine. It will be for a while.

WookieMan says

Don't have the finished floor yet, but I'd eat off the subfloor.

What type of wood or wood product are you using? Are you putting in a gap between sheets? Also, you never gave the answer to your R Factor quiz (or I missed it).

WookieMan says

Said it before your big risk markets are Nashville, Austin, Denver, Phoenix to an extent due to 55+ communities but that only influences a few, Boise, Tampa (maybe), Las Vegas is always on the list and I think Los Angeles is gonna have issues. These are larger metros that will bring national numbers down. New York I don't know, you got a lot of high paying banker jobs and real estate brokers that can make $60-200k a deal. Boston I could see taking a step down as I don't know why you'd live there. Similar thing with Chicago, but I think the bulk of the outflow has happened here.

Examine what drove the population growth for the zip code, such as +55 year old retirees in The Villages.

I think The Villages would adjust to demographic changes and not be building as much since the Baby Boomer generation is almost done moving there from the north.

For Panama City and Bay County Florida, one major benefit is that a lot of the tourism base is within 5 hours drive such as Atlanta metro and Huntsville Alabama. They have major events almost every weekend during "off season" such as from 1 March to mid May, and again mid September to end of November.

They are trying to improve tourism during the non beach weather months of December, January and February.

And its economy is diversifying such as with shipbuilding, pipe manufacturing, HVAC manufacturing, and electronics and electrical manufacturing.

.

WookieMan says

Said it before your big risk markets are Nashville, Austin, Denver, Phoenix to an extent due to 55+ communities but that only influences a few, Boise, Tampa (maybe), Las Vegas is always on the list and I think Los Angeles is gonna have issues. These are larger metros that will bring national numbers down. New York I don't know, you got a lot of high paying banker jobs and real estate brokers that can make $60-200k a deal. Boston I could see taking a step down as I don't know why you'd live there. Similar thing with Chicago, but I think the bulk of the outflow has happened here.

Examine what drove the population growth for the zip code, such as +55 year old retirees in The Villages.

I think The Villages would adjust to demographic changes and not be building as much since the Baby Boomer generation is almost done moving there from the north. The Villages is going to have to re invent itself.

For Panama City and Bay County Florida, one major benefit is that a lot of the tourism base is within 5 hours drive such as Atlanta metro and Huntsville Alabama. They have major events almost every weekend during "off season" such as from 1 March to mid May, and again mid September to end of November.

They are trying to improve tourism during the non beach weather months of December, January and February.

And its economy is diversifying such as with shipbuilding, pipe manufacturing, HVAC manufacturing, and electronics and electrical manufacturing.

.

HeadSet says

WookieMan says
Don't have the finished floor yet, but I'd eat off the subfloor.

What type of wood or wood product are you using? Are you putting in a gap between sheets? Also, you never gave the answer to your R Factor quiz (or I missed it).

I'll get to this eventually. I'm in overload mode currently. I honestly cannot recall the R value at this time. I don't know the wood product either. I do bitch here, but tend to keep it light. But building a $700k house and having another $2.5M project going on is a bit much. 2 kids qualified for 3 state events in track. Have to drive 2 hours each way and drop $1k on hotels. Meals another $400 probably.

I'll try to update my build thread with photos. I was there today, but it was too dark. I don't like being there when the contractors are there so it's tough. In my adult life though I've never, ever seen a cleaner construction site in my life and that's with 15 years of real estate under my belt. I legit get a hard on walking through. There's no saw dust. Any material is neatly placed to the side and organized.

I'll try to get there in the morning and do a walk and take some photos. The outside is not the prettiest since they haven't done sidewalks or final grading. July/August can't come fast enough.

AD says

About 25% of H1B visas are in California, and 80% of those are in the San Fran Bay Area. So figure 120,000 H1B visa workers are in the San Fran Bay Area.

I'm not sure why the original poster B A C A H uses the language of chocked full when it is less than 5%.

Your own words. Compared to communities in the Florida Panhandle, or outskirts of Chicago, or other places in Flyover Country I'd say the Bay Area is chocked full of H1's. Disclosure: I'm not defending our reality, - I don't like it. It is what it is.

AD says

There were 2,793,526 homes in 2020 in San Fran Bay Area so even if 120,000 H1B visa workers owned a home, that would only be less than 5% of the housing inventory.

A bit more than half of those are owner-occupied, 1.5M or so. Of those, approximately 50K per year, or 3% of the total, are sold-bought per year. This is mainly because of distortions to the marketplace created by Proposition-13. And homeowners dying off hasn't yet significantly skewed the numbers, - at least not yet. My culdesac has several residences where the kids inherited the homes and their Prop-13 assessment. Quite likely my kids will inherit ours when the time comes.

So we have our tsunami of H1's jockeying for the 50K or so listings per year, - not the 1.5 M overall you cite.

There's more turnover in the rental market, - sort of. In some municipalities, including SJ where I live, older rentals can be subject to rent control (in SJ I think it's pre-1979 construction or something like that). This has created a NYC-like situation that prevents turnover and reset to market rates, - and crowding the H1's who rent into the newer market-rate construction rentals.

Again, I'm not a fan of these realities, they are what they are. You can hate me (and Patrick and the rest of us) for choosing to live here, Sticks and Stones. I like being around friends and family and being a daily part of my granddaughter's life. For the time being the tradeoffs are worth it for me, bro.

You can do Fact Check "gotcha!" on my figures if you want to, whatever. I was using sort of round numbers.

Bacah when I went to Yellowstone last time it felt like it was mini India. I'm pretty sure entire SF Bay Area didn't come that day either. Numbers are much higher than we get publicly told, maybe it's additive over years or something. I don't know, I just know it's a lot.

Fortwaye says

Bacah when I went to Yellowstone last time it felt like it was mini India. I'm pretty sure entire SF Bay Area didn't come that day either. Numbers are much higher than we get publicly told, maybe it's additive over years or something. I don't know, I just know it's a lot.

I've had scores of these folks as colleagues over the decades. Including even, an engineering manager boss. Since they don't wanna risk their H1 visa they don't leave the US for their vacations (USVI and Puerto Rico are favorites for them as "international" substitutes).

For long car trips, often they take along family members (particularly their own parents or auntie/uncles) who come to the US from India (or Duabi, etc if they live there) to see our spectacular outdoor spots. So that tsunami of Indian tourists who you observed might be one or two actual H1's along with two or more accompanying "tourists" from abroad.

https://abc45.com/news/nation-world/california-advances-0-down-no-payment-home-loans-for-undocumented-immigrants-cost-pressures-appropriations-committee-analysis-household-income-assistance-program

GNL says

Looks like Newsom has still not signed this into law after it was passed by the California Senate in August of last year. It would have been bad optics during the last election year, and I suspect the DNC told Newsom to shelve that bill.

Wait to see if it does become law when essentially no one is looking.

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https://wolfstreet.com/2025/05/21/as-tech-jobs-plunge-in-san-francisco-silicon-valley-housing-reacts-condo-prices-drop-back-to-2015-single-family-home-prices-back-to-2018/