patrick.net

The Kobeissi Letter
@KobeissiLetter
The trade war has officially begun, here’s our take on it:

1. New tariffs of 25% on Mexico, 25% on Canada, and 10% on China are now live. We must first put this into perspective

2. Mexico and Canada’s exports to the U.S. account for approximately 78% and 77% of their total annual exports, respectively

3. U.S. exports to Mexico and Canada account for approximately 16% and 17% of total U.S. annual exports, respectively

4. U.S. exports to Mexico and Canada are ~$320 billion and ~$360 billion respectively, which is less than 2.5% of U.S. GDP

5. On the other hand, these exports represent 20%–30% of Canada and Mexico’s GDP. This trade war is clearly lopsided

6. The real wildcard here is how China will respond to the additional 10% tariff. We expect higher prices for consumers soon

7. This comes at a particularly important time as DeepSeek has disrupted AI, and the U.S. is probing potential illegal chip purchases in China

8. The combination of a trade war and potential new chip bans could significantly weigh on technology stocks

9. U.S. officials are being careful with their comments regarding chip bans and the DeepSeek situation for a reason

10. If these tariffs persist for more than a year, we expect U.S. economic output to decline by an average of ~2% per year through 2026

11. Unless oil prices drop by 80% to ~$15 per barrel, it is unlikely that lower energy prices will offset the effects of tariffs and existing inflation

12. Higher interest rates are here to stay through at least Q3 2025

13. President Trump’s threat to impose 100% tariffs on BRICS countries (which could include more than 30 nations) poses an even greater risk

14. The average U.S. tariff rate is set to rise to ~22% under President Trump—more than 5 times the average over the last 30 years

As an investor, you CANNOT change the market. You can only react to CHANGES in the market.

The coming volatility will be a tradable opportunity.

https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1886063811687293276

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

The coming volatility will be a tradable opportunity.

Always is.

Her targeted audience are LP voters in Canada, not Americans.

https://youtu.be/-o7XTmd89KM?si=YxISlzx_CFd7dRNx

RWSGFY says

AmericanKulak says

RWSGFY says

They have an army, don't they?

I'm not even sure Canada has an icebreaker anymore.

Yeah, they even rented Leo-2 tanks from Zee Germans when they were deployed in Afghanistan.

But in reality you don't need tanks or icebreakers to seal the border - just lotsa boots on the ground and drones in the air. So I still don't understand the choice they made.

RWSGFY says

But in reality you don't need tanks or icebreakers to seal the border - just lotsa boots on the ground and drones in the air. So I still don't understand the choice they made.

You DO need them to guard the arctic, another job the Canucks have passed on to the USA by underfunding their military.

AmericanKulak says

RWSGFY says

But in reality you don't need tanks or icebreakers to seal the border - just lotsa boots on the ground and drones in the air. So I still don't understand the choice they made.

You DO need them to guard the arctic, another job the Canucks have passed on to the USA by underfunding their military.

I doubt fentanyl and illegals arrive from the Arctic so I'm sure a deal along the lines of "we seal our land border NOW and do this and that in Arctic over the next 2 years" could be made.

The real problem with Canada is the money laundering in Toronto Casinos, Ottawa real estate equity loans, etc.

Trudeau has the story that a former RCMP official worked for a Chinese Fentanyl Kingpin under a media gag order in Canada.

"It's only like 20 pounds of Fentanyl"

In other words, 5.5 million doses. Or 2.25M George Floyd strength doses

Canadian Tariffs:
245% on US Dairy


"But my avg tariff is only a few percent,hurr durr!" It's the comparative advantage tariffs that count.

AmericanKulak says

Canadian Tariffs:
245% on US Dairy

So they're going after Wisconsin. Lol. Big boy move. Going after 6m people that mostly live in Milwaukee, Racine and Madison. Ohhhhhhhhh god. Their farmers will sell the cheese and milk elsewhere. There's plenty of demand.

Canada is going after maybe 20,000 people that are Dairy farmers in the US, mostly Wisconsin. If that. I know the result is you have existing cows and you'll continue to produce the milk needed with what you have. It will DROP the prices for US citizens because we'll have more cheese and milk than anyone has ever seen.

Gotta own when you don't have the leverage and get it right. 245% on dairy is stupid. It doesn't move the needle for ordinary Americans. They just notice cheaper milk and cheese on the shelf. I think a lot of these countries don't really comprehend the leverage we have.

Tariffs are 'old school' economics to preserve the sanctity of borders and unity of rule over an area. What history can be gleaned as real, tariffs were used to create a differential that bled other economies while favoring a domestic economy, or even allowed domestic economy to remain domestic rather than a fulcrum of dependency elsewhere. Even a small hand on the scale of differential trades could strengthen the home front and weaken rivals over time.

If you force foreign manufacturers to place factories here, there is always a leverage threat of nationalization which keeps things 'friendly' so to speak.

USA can make anything it needs or wants for the most part. The only thing the NWO wanted from us was a war economy. Everything else was expendable. 'Free Trade' is a myth because it is like the myth of the Commons. It presumes that everybody is playing fair on an equal playing field, observes ethics and protocols, considers the welfare of others, but that is never the case in reality.

China contemplates its trade and manufacturing advantages as something to be weaponized against its patronages in the West. We have also been suckers more or less handed over to them by the NWO types. China tends to operate on basis of a backlog of Revenge Karma against the Western Powers.

Trump is obviously using tariffs to 'restore' domestic manufacturing capability and to unseat the Fed and the Vatican IRS parasites. He is trying to make them unnecessary to cut the Gordian Knot of their tentacles in government and economy.

WookieMan says

think a lot of these countries don't really comprehend the leverage we have.

Oh, their leadership do. But they can't project that to their citizens: "Yeah, we ARE America's bitch and can't do shit shit about it. Live with it."

So forget what they say. Or even try to do. It's mostly for show and even contradicts what they said/did before.

Like their counter tariffs on their consumers after yelling about how tariffs hurt US consumers. (My current fav)

Millions of Mexicans and Snow Mexicans are going to be furloughed or outright lose their jobs before they bend the knee. Snow Mexico will even hold an election during all this, probably.

China and CCP crap are so thick in the ether of the West Coast, it is creepy. Trump making serious efforts to annex Canada, Panama and Greenland are pre-emptive before we are encircled. Trump may have to re-annex the entire West Coast as well.

When Trump declared some military (who, what or where still have not been publicly documented) released the water in California and flipped off Newscum, it was a shot over the bow. It's an acknowledgement that the West Coast might have to be liberated and that military will play a role because the occupations have gone too deep.

15 minute cities might be NWO prison and slave colony ethics writ large, but it also fits in with the hive mind of Asians. 15 minute cities are slave batching groups of humanity in controlled surroundings for particular technologic or industrial taskings, and also allows these 'batches' to be summarily disposed of after use in group executions, like throw away slave containers.

CCP was easily willing to murder a million with 5G scalar weapons to kick off the Covid fraud. Those gulags built by the Australians for the Covid 'rebels' had separate pipings into the units that were not for heat, water or utilities. They were literally lines to pipe gases and materials into all the apartments to either quell or kill the residents at will from a centralized location.

Yeah, so far nobody has explained how that "flipped" water gets from PNW to CA.

WookieMan says

So they're going after Wisconsin.

This 245% tariff is PRE-Trump Rate, been there a long while.

LOL!

https://t.me/qthestormrider777/26111

OK, tariffs are in. Where is my Federeal income tax reduction?

I'm paying rent in Mexico, I just sent a WhatsApp message to the owner that I'm deducting a 25% tariff this month.

She was just slightly amused.

Tip: If they're desperate for your money, they'll take a bit of kidding from you.

RWSGFY says

OK, tariffs are in. Where is my Federeal income tax reduction?

Agree on this. There needs to be a follow up

RWSGFY says

OK, tariffs are in. Where is my Federeal income tax reduction?

Ask the RINOs that have been running the House most years since 1995.

Booger says

This only obviates the effects tariffs have on Mexico.

AmericanKulak says

RWSGFY says

OK, tariffs are in. Where is my Federeal income tax reduction?

Ask the RINOs that have been running the House most years since 1995.

RINOs didn't promise me tariffs in exchange for tax reduction. Trump did. And, unlike his first term, he controls the GOP now.

RWSGFY says

RINOs didn't promise me tariffs in exchange for tax reduction. Trump did. And, unlike his first term, he controls the GOP now.

They just promised the tax reduction. And a closed border. And eliminating the federal debt...And, and, and.

The FL State Legislaure last week was basically the RINOs since Gingrich was taken out of the Chair by RINOs. A big talk bill that was actually Sanctuary in disguise by giving Big Sugar Simpson the Agra Commish total enforcement power over illegals, while keeping in-state tuition for their kids.

AmericanKulak says

RWSGFY says

RINOs didn't promise me tariffs in exchange for tax reduction. Trump did. And, unlike his first term, he controls the GOP now.

They just promised the tax reduction. And a closed border. And eliminating the federal debt...And, and, and.

I don't care about ancient history. Trump is in charge now. If the idea was to move fast on promises there should be fast movement on all promises, not "tariffs today for sure but tax reduction some time later ... maybe ... or not".

RWSGFY says

I don't care about ancient history. Trump is in charge now. If the idea was to move fast on promises there should be fast movement on all promises, not "tariffs today for sure but tax reduction some time later ... maybe ... or not".

Yep, he's moving fast and hard.

You don't quit your job until you've got another one, or you have enough in the bank.

I remember when Bonehead said we couldn't spend a few billion on the wall because it wasn't fiscally prudent, as he was taking us into tens of trillions in debt.

Past performance is the a great indicator of future results. When I see RINOs getting results, they'll get my vote back.

Actions and Deeds, not the post-Gingrich empty Words and Screeds

"We 'only' have a 24 seat majority after being swept with a 63 seat gain, we'll just have to rubber stamp Obama and not find a way to repeal Gay Marriage."

AmericanKulak says

WookieMan says

So they're going after Wisconsin.

This 245% tariff is PRE-Trump Rate, been there a long while.

Statement stands. They went after Wisconsin. That's how stupid they are. Nothing to do with Trump and not what I said. Pre/post Trump who cares. They're going after a tiny product that will do just fine selling in the US or in other countries.

mell says

RWSGFY says

OK, tariffs are in. Where is my Federeal income tax reduction?

Agree on this. There needs to be a follow up

Blunt question. Anyone here pay federal income taxes anyway? I get the vibe most don't or it's $5k or less.

.

how much more will it cost to buy a low end Chromebook at Walmart ?

how much more will pay at the gas pump ?

.

WookieMan says

mell says

RWSGFY says

OK, tariffs are in. Where is my Federeal income tax reduction?

Agree on this. There needs to be a follow up

Blunt question. Anyone here pay federal income taxes anyway? I get the vibe most don't or it's $5k or less.

Would be nice

Trump ressurected Canadian Nationalism in just hours!

AD says

how much more will pay at the gas pump ?

Maybe I'm a spoiled shit head, but I just don't care about gas prices until they hit $10/gal. I don't drive all that much.

But if they go up, demand will slow. State governors will do temporary freezes on gas taxes because it usually takes at least a year to use the funds and will kick the can down the road as usual. They figure a way to make it up in the future.

I don't think we'll pay more at the pump though. Some states will because of EV's not pulling their weight in the economy. They bring up the MFT taxes or they need to start charging EV taxes based on electric use. Bad public policy to charge 90% of the population and let 10% and rising pay nothing for infrastructure.

This is where Musk has an issue in the Trump admin. His cars need to be taxed a fair rate. They're not if you charge at home. I don't want any highway paid for with federal dollars to allow EV's. Make it a $1k fine or some insane number. Or figure out how to charge kWh at home or at the charging station.

I hate regulation and taxes, but if you don't have a road to get to work, enjoy. The grid will shut down.

WookieMan says

Blunt question. Anyone here pay federal income taxes anyway? I get the vibe most don't or it's $5k or less.

I had 85K withheld for 2024 just for federal taxes. No idea how much I will end up paying until I file.