patrick.net

goofus says

3. His leverage over Russia is that they want an end to this war — they’ve tried no fewer than five times to forge a peace agreement with Ukraine. China offered to broker the peace deal in 2023, and Saudi Arabia offered as well. NO ONE wants this war apart from “our” neocons and the politicians they’ve bought (including EU bureaucrats and Zelensky).

They had Russian - Ukrainian negotiations in mid-2022, but it seemed like when Boris Johnson showed up those negotiations ended.

So all that did was allow western European governments to prolong the war and get Birdbrain Biden to spend at least $50 billion per year for Ukraine assistance.

But Germany paid the price when Anthony Blinken smirked on camera that Germany can buy a lot more American LNG since the pipeline from Russia was destroyed.

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AD says

They had Russian - Ukrainian negotiations in mid-2022, but it seemed like when Boris Johnson showed up those negotiations ended.

So all that did was allow western European governments to prolong the war and get Birdbrain Biden to spend at least $50 billion per year for Ukraine assistance.

But Germany paid the price when Anthony Blinken smirked on camera that Germany can buy a lot more American LNG since the pipeline from Russia was destroyed.

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Right, Johnson seems to have single-handedly prolonged the war by two years. He’s now responsible for what, 500k additional Ukrainian deaths?

Allies like Taiwan and Japan must look at this treatment of European allies, and Ukraine itself, as an abject warning. Do not trust the US, lesson learned. Hopefully Trump will undo some damage, but that and the unnecessary immigration crisis will be the Biden’s legacy.

goofus says

Hopefully Trump will undo some damage, but that and the unnecessary immigration crisis will be the Biden’s legacy.

And Birdbrain Biden's deficit spending well after the COVID crisis was under control like $375 billion in Green New Deal under the Inflation Reduction Act, $47 billion per year for student loan forgiveness and $50 billion per year to Ukraine (which how much of that never directly went to assist Ukraine?)

Trump at least proposed a $500 billion deal with Ukraine on mineral rights, but I suspect Trump would take a $200 billion deal to recover at least most of the Ukraine aid costs. At least its the total opposite of Birdbrain Biden's wacky dealings.

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I've finished the book.

It does not contain a single example or even mention of the negotiation tactic of giving up majority of the ask before the start of negotiations.

BTW, Lavrov has just rejected the idea of a ceasefire. So basically the reciprocation to all the concessions was exactly zero so far.

What happened tho the second meeting in SA between Rubio and Lavrov promised for Feb 25?

It didn't happen.

And now this:

Russia refuses to cease hostilities on the current front line, said Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, citing the Russian constitution.

THEIR CONSTITUTION PROHIBITS CEASEFIRE. CONSTITUTION, KARL!

But we were so nice to them and gave them so much and even pushed a completely cucked-out resolution through UN just yesterday...

I guess Donnie is to learn another negotiation technique - the Soviet one: no give - all take.

Soo, it's been what, one whole month of buddy-buddy with Vlady-Vlady (or 3 months if rumors of negotiations starting immediately after Nov 05th are true), lots of carrots (practically all of them) given right out of the door and even more promised and ... nothing in return. Absolutely nothing. Not even tentative agreement in principle to cease fire on the current LOC, as per alleged Trumpf peace plan (cease fire -> elections -> peace agreement). The Moscow regime maintains their maximalist demands. What now?

PS. How's that reading going on? Anybody else finished?

Trump has thrown ideas out there such as European troops as peacekeepers in Ukraine.

What he has shown is that he is willing to openly negotiate and propose concessions by trying to gauge interest from both Ukraine and the Kremlin.

So what has he lost ? He has not stopped funding for Ukraine.

Putin needs the deal more than Trump and Ukraine.

Putin is running out of cannon fodder; he's afraid to conscript more sacrificial guys because that will be very unpopular.

His land gain in Ukraine has cost 800,000+ casualties, of those about 220,000 are dead. This is accelerating.

Trump shot his mouth off and said "I'll end this war in a day." He should not write checks with his mouth that he can't back up.

Whether we like it or not, a safe Ukraine is in Europe's security interest, and a secure Europe is in American interests.

Trump should let Putin twist in the breeze for a while; it may be impossible for a reasonable solution with a maniac dictator.

LOL! There must be a lot of 'Putin and Russia failing miserably' porn around for the Putin Derangement Syndrome subscribers.

Are there comic books or something? Wars of attrition have costs on all sides.

I added Art of the Deal to my reading list.

AD says

Trump has thrown ideas out there such as European troops as peacekeepers in Ukraine.

Pukin pocketed the generous concessions and rejected all the "ideas": peacekeeping troops, ceasefire on the LOC, etc.

So Trump is now compelled to offer more concessions, which he promptly did, starting to talk about lifting sanctions. The book talks about using leverage, but this looks like erasing leverage with every step.

Ceffer says

LOL! There must be a lot of 'Putin and Russia failing miserably' porn around for the Putin Derangement Syndrome subscribers.

Are there comic books or something? Wars of attrition have costs on all sides.

Did you read the book? Have anything to say on the subject? A meme, maybe?

RWSGFY says

So Trump is now compelled to offer more concessions, which he promptly did, starting to talk about lifting sanctions. The book talks about using leverage, but this looks like erasing leverage with every step.

He has not met for negotiations with Putin. Putin said Ukraine can't be part of NATO and Trump says he agrees.

There needs to be at least 3rd party peace keepers, and Putin may compromise on that.

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With the two most recent decisions wrt stopping of cyber ops and military aid the whole negotiation strategy looks more and more like rolling over and showing belly.

That was most def not in the book.

RWSGFY says

With the two most recent decisions wrt stopping of cyber ops and military aid the whole negotiation strategy looks more and more like rolling over and showing belly.

That was most def not in the book.

Perhaps Trump has realized the enemy is not Putin, but the globalists who run Zelensky, Starmer, and Macron. Stopping funding (with the pretext of Z’s tantrum last Fri) is in our interest. Allowing globalists to ensnare us via NATO’s article 5, not so much.

So, two days ago the last carrot - suspension of intelligence sharing with Ukraine - has been handed out like candy to Pukin.

Today we have little Marco saying this:

Can we try to sit with them and figure out whether there's anything -- what are the Russians' demands? Under what conditions would the Russians be willing to stop this war?

Which means they got absolutely nothing in return for all the concessions, didn't even have a proper sit-down (the meetings in Ryiad and Istanbul in Feb were apparently some technical bs about embassies and nothing else) and just standing there with dicks in hand inviting the Soviets to make bigger demands, because their previous ones have already been fulfilled.

This looks super weak. Which chapter of the great book describes this strategy again? I can't find it.

Aaaand another card given away for absolutely nothing:

Soo, after all the sound and the fury, demands from Zel to agree to a full and immediate ceasefire for 30 days and finally getting it, our Donnie goes on a phone call with Vlady-buddy to "get the peace and divide some assets" and gets .... a vague promise to maybe not strike energy infrastructure, i.e. the same stuff Zel offered earlier (and let to a tantrum, stoppage of military aid and intelligence sharing because it was "not good enough" and "it's easier to deal with Pukin than with Zel). Suddenly Donnie is OK and even happy with it? It's "easier to deal with Pukin than with Zel" but he's not getting what he wants from him. And that hockey shit? WTF was that? He can't order NHL to play with the orcs, especially taking into account that 1/3 of the teams are Canucks.

Honestly, this whole thing looks like a little Chihuahua bitch running after some guy and trying to hump his leg and being kicked away (and Donnie is not the one whose leg is being humped, to be clear). It's weak and cringe AF. And definitely not something seen in the book.

Zelinski is like the midget who's goaded to fight the jock, with the promise that a bruiser will step in if things get too hairy.

The bruiser has walked away, now it's just the midget against 6'5" and 230 lbs. of jock. Maybe a few other midgets might pile on (Canada, UK, France) but the outcome at this point is certain.

I did back in the 80s

Another concession to the Soviets has been given: the so-called ceasefire on the Black Sea. This favors only one side, since Ukraine has been in control of the Black Sea for more than a year now, Ukrainian exports are flowing freely and the remnants of the Red fleet is corked up in Novorossiysk (refer to the "Black Sea Fleet neutered" thread for details).

Meanwhile, Donnie's idea of 30-day total ceasfire is still being rejected by Pukin (while being fully endorsed by Zel).

And Ham-ass ceasfire achieved by leaning on Israel has effectively collapsed too.

The bizzare negotiation stragegy of pressing and shitting on allies and cucking out to adversaries continues to bear zero fruit. And yet, it continues.

Definitely not something described in the book.

https://yuribezmenov.substack.com/p/trump-apprentice-tips-for-success

Comrades: Donald Trump Tweeted before Twitter existed.

In every episode of The Apprentice, he gave one tip for success that was ~30 seconds long. They were simple, punchy, Tweet-sized nuggets of common sense business wisdom. In many cases, they foreshadowed his reasoning for firing a contestant at the end of an episode.

I have transcribed all 63 of these tips below. You will be hard pressed to find anything controversial, wrong, or dumb. They also shed insight on how he operates.

RWSGFY says

With the two most recent decisions wrt stopping of cyber ops and military aid the whole negotiation strategy looks more and more like rolling over and showing belly.

That was most def not in the book.

yes its like playing poker and being coy

but don't be too adversarial or hyper competitive to the point that the other side does not want to play cards (or meet at the negotiation table to ultimately handshake a deal)

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So, even the supposed limited ceasefire is not happening IRL. What's Donnie gonna concede next in order to "be coy" and "play pocker"?

Patrick says

https://yuribezmenov.substack.com/p/trump-apprentice-tips-for-success

Comrades: Donald Trump Tweeted before Twitter existed.

In every episode of The Apprentice, he gave one tip for success that was ~30 seconds long. They were simple, punchy, Tweet-sized nuggets of common sense business wisdom. In many cases, they foreshadowed his reasoning for firing a contestant at the end of an episode.

I have transcribed all 63 of these tips below. You will be hard pressed to find anything controversial, wrong, or dumb. They also shed insight on how he operates.

Trump did not follow his own advice here when dealing with Linsay Graham:

13. Dog Does Not Eat Dog

The greatest thing that can happen to a business man or woman is to surround yourself with talented people who also happen to be loyal. You never know what makes a loyal person. And guess what, if they are not loyal the first time, don’t give them a second chance because they won’t be loyal the next time.

"The Art of the Deal" vs "No Give, All Take".

Lol

KgK one says

Lol

So how many in total, including Xi?

Show of hands?

Eric Holder says

KgK one says

Lol

So how many in total, including Xi?

Show of hands?

I read it.

"Many of you in the media clearly missed The Art of the Deal. You clearly failed to see what President Trump is doing here. You you tried to say that the rest of the world would be moved closer to China, when in fact, we've seen the opposite effect. The entire world is calling the United States of America, not China, because they need our markets, they need our consumers, and they need this president in the Oval Office to talk to them."

"That's exactly why more than 75 countries have called, because the United States of America is the best place in the world to do business. And the president has shown great courage, as the Secretary just said, in choosing to retaliate against China even higher!"

https://x.com/townhallcom/status/1910026205501211068?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1910026205501211068%7Ctwgr%5Eb45aaa35139a22538125c1bdb77873487c90b6ad%7Ctwcon%5Es1&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitchy.com%2Fdougp%2F2025%2F04%2F09%2Fkaroline-leavitt-sets-stunned-wh-press-straight-on-trumps-tariff-strategy-art-of-the-deal-memes-ftw-n2411169

Yep, when your top customer gets a sneeze, you get pneumonia.

Europe and China and South Korea and Japan and India need the US a helluva lot more than each other.

socal2 says

"Many of you in the media clearly missed The Art of the Deal. You clearly failed to see what President Trump is doing here. ... China...

Yeah, definitely going by the book on China, opening with big ask and ratcheting up, not "lets offer maximum concessions out of the door and make puppy eyes at them so they maybe be so kind and start negotiating".

How come "by the book" is not happening wrt promised peace deals? There it is only concession fest and no ratcheting up anything anywhere in sight.

Eric Holder says

socal2 says

"Many of you in the media clearly missed The Art of the Deal. You clearly failed to see what President Trump is doing here. ... China...

Yeah, definitely going by the book on China, opening with big ask and ratcheting up, not "lets offer maximum concessions out of the door and make puppy eyes at them so they maybe be so kind and start negotiating".

How come "by the book" is not happening wrt promised peace deals? There it is only concession fest and no ratcheting up anything anywhere in sight.

China has everything to lose and the US has everything to gain in the long term by putting China back in the box it was in in the 1980's. Over the next 20 years China will cease to be a unified country - it's facing massive demographic collapse. China has been inflating its population statistics for decades - some estimates put it as low as 800+ million.

China is fucked six ways from Sunday, and they did it to themselves with 40 years of the one child policy. The US never had nor continues to have anything to do with their fate. It was decided two generations ago by the Chinese government.

stereotomy says

China has been inflating its population statistics for decades - some estimates put it as low as 800+ million.

About 600 million of them still live as peasants.

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At best we can reduce the trade deficit with poor countries like Vietnam by at most 25%.

But you can't expect less wealthy countries to buy "expensive" goods and services from the USA as much as we buy their cheap goods. I think Trump realizes this.

Trump does give off the Roy Cohn-style fanfare but he is still pragmatic and just wants to achieve some tangible gains for the USA like increasing manufacturing jobs as a % of the total jobs, reverse the trend of increasing annual deficits, etc.

It's that China is the most extreme culture as far as saving face, as it does not help its nearly 94% the same ethnicity combined with its Chicom / Maoism government.

So its going to be a tough nut to crack as far as try to get a better deal for the USA, or perhaps no deal as far as reversing trends like Chicoms setting up regulator barriers to imports, stealing USA intellectual property, hacking USA infrastructure, etc.

https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/in-secret-meeting-china-acknowledged-role-in-u-s-infrastructure-hacks-c5ab37cb

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stereotomy says

China is fucked six ways from Sunday

So is the USSR and yet Donnie basically lets them piss all over his face in response to all his peace overtures.