patrick.net

MolotovCocktail says

5) Uniparty Congress won't go for this. They'll come to like the tariff revenues but only in addition to how they assfuck us now. Yes, that includes the RINOs. There is no MAGA party on Congress, kiddies. Not really.

If they do somehow vote for it then maybe they've been to Epstein Island.

🇨🇭🇺🇸 On August 7, 2025, the United States implemented a 39% tariff on a wide range of Swiss imports, including watches, machinery, and chocolate, with pharmaceuticals largely exempt. The measure is part of President Donald Trump’s “reciprocal tariff” policy, which links tariff rates to trade imbalances. The Swiss government, led by President Karin Keller-Sutter, mounted last-minute diplomatic efforts in Washington to avert the increase but failed, and negotiations continue. Swiss industry groups have warned of significant disruptions, with potential job losses and slower economic growth if the tariffs remain in place.

So what?
The 39% U.S. tariff on Swiss goods signals that Washington’s “reciprocal tariff” policy is being applied even to high-value, politically neutral economies at the core of Europe’s industrial and financial ecosystem. While Switzerland’s global market share in precision manufacturing and luxury goods is small in volume, its products occupy critical niches in global supply chains—from watchmaking and medical instruments to specialty machinery. Sustained tariffs risk prompting Swiss firms to redirect exports toward Asia or the Middle East, potentially eroding transatlantic trade ties. The move also puts the EU in a delicate position: although Switzerland is not an EU member, its economy is deeply integrated into the single market, meaning the tariffs could indirectly affect EU suppliers, logistics networks, and pricing structures for high-end goods across the continent.

From a geopolitical perspective, as I have argued, Trump’s tariff strategy can be understood not simply as protectionism but as statecraft aimed at forcing geopolitical realignment. By selectively raising tariffs on both allies and rivals, Washington increases the cost of economic dependence on the U.S. market while simultaneously leveraging trade pain as a negotiating tool for broader strategic concessions - whether on security cooperation, sanctions alignment, or supply chain decoupling from China and Russia. In this reading, the Swiss case is not an isolated economic dispute but part of a larger recalibration of alliances in the evolving order of Cold War 2.0 between America and the Dragon-Bear.

https://x.com/vtchakarova/status/1954560761017037234

BTW, this gal is worth following on X. Not a neolib full of shit.

‘US hits one-kilo gold bars with tariffs in blow to refining hub Switzerland’ (FT), upending the bullion market as prices soar, and hitting Zurich on trade again;

https://x.com/TheMichaelEvery/status/1953702339681923249

TRADE DEAL WITH EU REACHED


https://x.com/howardlutnick/status/1958484251818545422

PanicanDemoralizer says

TRADE DEAL WITH EU REACHED


https://x.com/howardlutnick/status/1958484251818545422

https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/friends-with-benefits-saturday-august

Narrative failure alert! This week, US News and World Report published this remarkable, expectation-defying headline:

Trump's Tariffs Could Reduce US Deficit by $4 Trillion, CBO Estimates
https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2025-08-22/trumps-tariffs-could-reduce-us-deficit-by-4-trillion-cbo-estimates

The new estimate was devastating news for corporate media, which angrily ignored the story, and ran more DC protest tales instead. The financial experts were also unavailable for comment, even though they’d predicted the exact opposite, that Trump’s tariffs would mushroom the deficit. ...

If anything, the CBO’s estimate was low. The prediction of a $400 billion deficit reduction over ten years is very conservative, since tariff revenue in 2025 is already estimated to blow past $400 billion, and tariffs weren’t in place for the whole year.

I don’t mean to minimize the accomplishment. Even $4 trillion over a decade isn’t exactly pocket change; it’s more than most major tax packages ever dare to promise.

That wasn’t the only thing experts were wrong about. On the same day, CBS News ran this delightfully contrarian story:

4 reasons why the Trump tariffs haven't caused U.S. inflation to soar
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-tariffs-trump-inflation-prices/

Until this week, most “mainstream” economists screamed that Trump’s sweeping tariffs would quickly push consumer prices higher, triggering a new inflation wave. Costs will just be passed on to American consumers, they cried. CBS’s article shows that didn’t happen: prices have stayed “relatively stable,” and the hysterical predictions of immediate inflationary shock did not materialize. ...

That we were right about tariffs from day one is now unavoidable. Trump’s tariff dashboard is about so much more than mere revenue. He’s using it to bring the globalists to heel. The much-desired goal of ending globalism for good would justify an enormous investment, but Trump has found a way to make trillions at the same time.

Since inflation is stable, it’s obvious that foreign treasuries are beginning to foot the bill for American objectives. Trump’s achieved the politically impossible; he’s transformed taxes into a profit center.

Think of it. For fifty years, politicians of both parties swore there were only two choices: raise taxes (career suicide) or cut spending (political suicide). Trump has once again found a third way: make foreigners pay America’s bills. And it’s fair, since the world benefits from American military and economic stability.

Patrick says

make foreigners pay America’s bills. And it’s fair, since the world benefits from American military and economic stability.

And they've been doing it to us forever. Europe is a dying region that has no natural resources and poor demographic future. So they bring in Muslims to fill the gap. Different ethnic countries. Italy, France, Germany, Spain, etc. It's not like the United States. We may bitch about each other states, but I consider them Americans first. Not the case in Europe.

About the only thing they had going was cars and that's failing. I don't want an EV, but they only make small ICE cars that are over priced. BMW, Audi, Mercedes, VW, etc. Those are mostly upper middle class cars that sales are going to fall off the US market. And they're also expensive to maintain.

I suppose they make watches as a bigger market? Basically what Europe does is high end stuff that 90% of Americans don't need. And they've been charging us tariffs not thinking the party would ever come to an end. Same shit with NATO. Why is Russia our problem? They'd have to nuke us. They couldn't get ground troops over without being completely wiped out with conventional weapons across the straights or Pacific. Russia has never been a threat because of MAD.

Cold war is over and Europe needs to take care of itself. The problem is they never have. Hence why I'll never go. And point is tariff the hell out of them. Technically they owe us way more after WWI and II. Didn't need to be in some wars, but we've given them free military training for 80 years. The bill is due.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

What if all that will have to be paid back...

A federal appeals court has ruled that most of President Donald Trump's sweeping global tariffs are unlawful, potentially dealing a significant blow to the president's effort to reshape the country's trade policy unilaterally.
In a 7-4 decision, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit rejected Trump's authority to carry out most of his tariffs, agreeing with the lower court that Trump's actions were "invalid as contrary to law." However, the court delayed the impact of its decision through mid-October to allow the Trump administration to appeal to the Supreme Court, as the tariffs remain in effect.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

No complaints. Just depends on how it's spent or divvy'd about.

"Tariffs will destroy consumer prices that already skyrocketed these past few years under one-way Free Trade"

"We're gonna take in $330B in new revenues and hardly anybody noticed, because it turns out multinational corps ate the cost, showing they have enormous pricing power and can lose more freebies and subsidies to boot."

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

showing they have enormous pricing power and can lose more freebies and subsidies to boot."

When an iPhone cost $10 to make but is already priced at the market top $800, Apple will pay the tariffs since they cannot raise the price.

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

"Tariffs will destroy consumer prices that already skyrocketed these past few years under one-way Free Trade"

"We're gonna take in $330B in new revenues and hardly anybody noticed, because it turns out multinational corps ate the cost, showing they have enormous pricing power and can lose more freebies and subsidies to boot."

https://www.firstpost.com/world/donald-trump-china-nato-brics-mexico-xi-jinping-india-global-economy-vietnam-13936273.html

Trump tariffs bring record export business to China, trade on track for $1.2 tn surplus

According to Bloomberg, with direct access to the US curtailed, Chinese manufacturers have swiftly found new buyers. Chinese Exports also got a boost from the improvement in bilateral ties with India on the back of a flurry of visits by the leaders of the two countries. Exports to India surged to an all-time high in August.

Shipments to Africa are on pace for a record year and sales to Southeast Asia now exceed their pandemic-era peaks. This broad-based boom reflects rerouting of Chinese goods after Trump’s tariff moves.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-current-account-narrows-sharply-133220232.html

US current account deficit narrows sharply in second quarter

Patrick says

https://www.firstpost.com/world/donald-trump-china-nato-brics-mexico-xi-jinping-india-global-economy-vietnam-13936273.html

Trump tariffs bring record export business to China, trade on track for $1.2 tn surplus

According to Bloomberg, with direct access to the US curtailed, Chinese manufacturers have swiftly found new buyers. Chinese Exports also got a boost from the improvement in bilateral ties with India on the back of a flurry of visits by the leaders of the two countries. Exports to India surged to an all-time high in August.

Shipments to Africa are on pace for a record year and sales to Southeast Asia now exceed their pandemic-era peaks. This broad-based boom reflects rerouting of Chinese goods after Trump’s tariff moves.

They don't tell you that it does not make up for the volume and/or prices they got from selling to the US.

MolotovCocktail says

Patrick says
https://www.firstpost.com/world/donald-trump-china-nato-brics-mexico-xi-jinping-india-global-economy-vietnam-13936273.html

Trump tariffs bring record export business to China, trade on track for $1.2 tn surplus

According to Bloomberg, with direct access to the US curtailed, Chinese manufacturers have swiftly found new buyers. Chinese Exports also got a boost from the improvement in bilateral ties with India on the back of a flurry of visits by the leaders of the two countries. Exports to India surged to an all-time high in August.

Shipments to Africa are on pace for a record year and sales to Southeast Asia now exceed their pandemic-era peaks. This broad-based boom reflects rerouting of Chinese goods after Trump’s tariff moves.

They don't tell you that it does not make up for the volume and/or prices they got from selling to the US.

They're panicking is what I think, China that is. They manufacture based on US demand and they likely have boatloads of inventory because crossing the Pacific. Takes 15-25 days from China. That shipping time will take months at least to adjust and then they need to keep Chinese people employed so they might be dumping products in warehouses to India and southeast Asia more than usual at lower cost since it's closer.

If China has an employment collapse Xi could be in trouble. My spending habits have changed so I don't buy the cheap Chinese crap anymore. Moving houses and you realize how much stupid shit you have. I think with the tariffs some people may also have just changed purchasing habits. I could see a 10-20% reduction in US purchasing Chinese goods. Probably overshooting, but wouldn't be surprised. I guess I should say consumer goods.

Just an occasional reminder that the Shanghai Index is lower than it was a decade ago, before the COVID global inflation wave.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/000001.SS/

And while it excludes Concrete, Steel, most Energy, etc. it is a good metric for how pǔtōngrén (Average Joe) is doing as it includes hotels, restaurants, clothes, etc. Flat.

WookieMan says

they might be dumping products in warehouses to India and southeast Asia more than usual at lower cost since it's closer.

Yup. They already started on that...EU first, since the Eloi Union never really has its fucking act together and they are the next richest bloc of consumer-suckers after us, I think.

Rest of Asia, India and what-not tend to be more well fortified because they already are mercantilist assholes in emulation of Japan, the Tigers and China itself.

https://wolfstreet.com/2025/10/01/tariff-cash-keeps-rolling-in-record-30-billion-in-september/

MolotovCocktail says

ZOMG! How will the US, covered in forests, ever replace.. uh... wood sticks to separate kiln-dried boards... uh... made from US wood from US forests? We don't have the infrastructure for that! It will take years to replace these imports!!!

hahahahah

https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/dizzying-dichotomies-saturday-october

The short reprieve from tariff news ended yesterday as CNN ran a hyperventilating story headlined, “Trump announces 130% tariffs on China. The global trade war just came roaring back.” ...

The problem with China’s new policy is that, due to globalists’ shortsighted economic policy, only China makes the good magnets now, and the magnets are needed to make lots of other, more interesting manufactured products, like bumper stick-ons saying “My Driving Scares Me Too,” and especially bombs and missiles. Yesterday, President Trump learned that China had stingily ordered countries to which it sells “rare earth” magnets not to let the U.S. have any.

President Trump was not amused.

“The United States of America will impose a Tariff of 100% on China, over and above any Tariff that they are currently paying,” Trump threatened on Truth Social yesterday afternoon. “Also on November 1st, we will impose Export Controls on any and all critical software.” Trump also abruptly canceled his next face-to-face meeting with China’s President Xi, foreclosing the possibility of attending a lavish, all-you-can-eat Asian buffet. ...

China’s embargo on “rare earths” mostly affects military manufacturing, which translates from the Chinese vernacular to even more probrems for Ukraine, which is where most of the West’s defense production is currently being Fedexed as soon as it rolls off production lines. Ukraine, currently struggling to hang on, will soon face even more shortages of critical refrigerator magnets and whimsical levitating light bulbs. And air defense missiles, of course.

https://open.substack.com/pub/robinjbrooks/p/deflationary-pressure-builds-in-china?showWelcomeOnShare=false

Six months ago, critics warned that President Donald Trump’s tariffs would crush the economy. They said Americans would face soaring prices and crashing markets. The reality? As we near the end of 2025, the story looks very different. Growth is up, markets are strong, and strategic onshore opportunities are emerging. Let’s break it down.

Tariffs are boosting revenue.

Rather than dragging the economy down, tariffs have become a colossal source of revenue. Tariff collections hit $100 billion in the first half of fiscal 2025, and U.S. Customs and Border Protection expects that figure to eclipse $300 billion by the end of the year. That money is helping real Americans – supporting military families and making sure our service members receive their paychecks on time during the government shutdown.

Tariffs are solving America’s trade problems.

Tariffs not only provide immediate benefits but also address America’s long-term structural trade issues. This administration has used tariffs as a strategic tool to bring other countries to the negotiating table, reaping immediate benefits. From trade deals with the U.K., E.U., Japan, and more, President Trump has brought down both tariff and non-tariff barriers on American exports and secured hundreds of billions in new investment – a tremendous boost for American workers and companies.

Inflation is stabilizing.

Many Americans feel that prices are higher than ever, and affordability is a daily concern. It’s true – under the previous administration, inflation surged and stretched household budgets. But the Trump administration’s tariff policies have helped slow the rate of price increases. The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure – the PCE Price Index – rose just 0.3% in August, bringing the annual rate to 2.7%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, held at 2.9%, right around the Fed’s target. Given consistent increases in average wage growth, real wages have remained stable.

Why hasn’t inflation surged? Because producers in the countries of origin – especially China – are absorbing much of the tariff costs to stay price-competitive in the U.S. market. Consider this: If it costs a Chinese manufacturer 10 cents to make a pair of socks and they sell it for 20 cents, even a 100% tariff raises the export price to just 40 cents. By the time that pair hits U.S. shelves at Walmart for $3, the change is small. Low production costs abroad and strong margins here at home have kept prices stable for consumers.

So while consumers are still feeling the pinch, tariffs have prevented prices from rising even faster, and as wages continue to grow and trade deals expand U.S. production, Americans can expect real relief at the checkout in the months ahead.

Manufacturing is coming home.

Tariffs are encouraging companies to produce onshore. At the same time, the U.S. has secured large foreign investment commitments – over $550 billion from Japan and $600 billion from the EU. These are the largest foreign investment commitments in American history, generating hundreds of thousands of U.S. jobs, expanding domestic manufacturing, and securing American prosperity for generations.

The bottom line: Tariffs are working.

The warnings of an economic disaster haven’t come true. Instead, the U.S. economy is growing, inflation is controlled, and markets are confident. These results show that, when used thoughtfully, tariffs can be a powerful tool – not just for revenue, but for national security and long-term economic advantage.

We’ve moved from doom to boom, from hesitation to hope, from caution to confidence, from fear to fortune, and from skepticism to success – and we’re now reaping the rewards of our sacrifice since the beginning of the year.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2025/10/30/from_doom_to_boom_trumps_tariffs_powering_us_economy_153467.html

It's not tariffs, it's the TACO.

https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/get-on-it-monday-november-3-2025

Yesterday, after spending months predicting tariff apocalypse, the Wall Street Journal ran a story headlined, “How the U.S. Economy Has Defied Doomsday Predictions on Tariffs.” The baffled sub-headline admitted, “Inflation is lower than expected after President Trump’s steep levies. The U.S. economy continues to grow.”

You remember the refrain: “Foreign countries don’t pay tariffs— American consumers do!” But, as Trump predicted, companies have adapted. “Companies,” the Journal explained, “have moved production from countries facing high tariffs—especially China—to countries such as Vietnam, Mexico and Turkey that face lower levies.”

“Economists worried tariffs would drag down consumer spending,” the Journal said, in a paroxysm of understatement. But for some reason the experts’ predictions failed to account for adaptation. Don’t wait for an apology.

“I’m not sure tariffs mattered as much as people thought they would,” graciously conceded Kelly Kowalski, head of investment strategies at MassMutual. Now they tell us. For example, “Average auto prices in September were only about 1.1% higher than March, even though car imports from many countries faced tariffs of 15% or more.” So.

The stiff-necked Journal, not even slightly prepared to concede defeat, stubbornly embarked on a convoluted, circuitous argument that all the companies had decided, maybe at a group therapy session, to eat the costs themselves, since they were all already enjoying stellar profits. In other words, the Journal wants us to believe they sacrificed profits to avoid losing sales from higher prices, which would have sacrificed profits. Okay.

(If that math doesn’t add up, that is correct.)

Curiously, as things stood yesterday, India (100%), Canada (45%), and Mexico (35%) now face the highest tariff rates. All the Asian countries (even China) plus the UK enjoy the lowest rates. There’s much to say about how Trump’s tariff strategy is helping squash globalism like a pudgy palmetto bug; instead, the tariffs are steadily building a new, more stable multipolar world. But I’ll save that for a future post.

And, what more can we possibly say about experts? In legal circles, litigators and judges have long viewed experts with cynicism, slightly below payday loan operators, since we know from daily experience that any decent lawyer can scare up an expert to advocate a radically different opinion about the exact same facts, such as whether the sky is blue or not. “Consensus” is but one factor in admitting expert evidence, and minority or dissenting views are usually always allowed.

Guess who gets to decide which expert is right? We do. Juries of lay people, chosen at random from local pools of registered voters. Not scientists, technocrats, elites, bureaucrats, journalists, or former bartendresses. Just regular Americans.

Patrick says

Yesterday, after spending months predicting tariff apocalypse, the Wall Street Journal ran a story headlined, “How the U.S. Economy Has Defied Doomsday Predictions on Tariffs.”

Doomsday predictions were for the original Nutlick Kinko's board. After multiple TACOs the tariffs are much less big and beautiful, hence doomsday not happening.

https://wolfstreet.com/2025/11/03/us-governments-net-cash-from-tariffs-jumps-to-record-32-billion-in-october/

Patrick says

We can tariff them, Donnie, but Congress needs to approve. So start doing it right.

Trump Implements Major Rollback of Food Tariffs
The president moved to lower duties on beef, coffee and dozens of other goods

WASHINGTON—President Trump on Friday moved to lower tariffs on beef, coffee and dozens of agricultural and food goods, marking a significant rollback of his so-called reciprocal levies as he looks for ways to address Americans’ concerns about the cost of living.
Trump issued an executive order modifying the reciprocal levies he imposed on virtually every trading partner in August, exempting more than a hundred common food items including fruits, nuts and spices.
The move continues a shift away from Trump’s maximalist tariff policy. When the president announced his reciprocal tariffs this spring, his economic team insisted there would be no exemptions to the levies. They later relented, removing duties on certain items not produced in the U.S., or available in sufficient quantities from domestic suppliers to meet demand. 
The newly exempted products on Friday, however, include many products commonly produced in the U.S.—such as beef, which has risen to record prices in recent months.

I agree on removing tariffs on coffee and bananas, but not on beef.

We cannot grow coffee or bananas, but America has enough land for cattle that we should be able to supply the whole US easily.