patrick.net

Truflation delivers a daily, real-time CPI alternative built on sales price data and on-chain transparency, whereas traditional metrics like the BLS CPI rely on monthly survey data with a lag of roughly 45 days.

Truflation , year over year , reported 8 Dec 2022 at 6%

and reported 10 July 2023 at 2.44%

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Truflation , year over year , reported 8 Dec 2022 at 6%

and reported 10 July 2023 at 2.44%

I could go through my receipts but the same beer I buy got to $22/case in mid 2024. It's back down to $17.99/case today where I'm at. That's roughly an 18% reduction on price per case. It's been on sale for $15.99 recently as well.

Gotta track daily goods on your own to get a feel. Not cars or homes, aka big item purchases. Bread, milk, cheese, bacon (this one is a biggie), eggs and even things like frozen pizzas and meals. From my visits to the grocery store those items are all down.

It's annoying when people base the overall market on things like cars and houses. Best case you get those sales in 3-10 year intervals. Really not a valuable metric except for those industries and even then they're seasonal. People buy beer or wine every week. Track those prices for inflation.

Fact is my beer I drink got out of control when Biden got in office. $22/case is insane. When Trump lost in 2020 it crept up immediately. $15.00 to $21.00. Who does that hurt? The guy getting off his shift and wanting some beers that doesn't like their job, but it pays the bills, just the beer increase could fill a tank of gas on a modest car... oh shit that went up as well. So now you make cuts.

Also stop giving people money. Covid will be a case study in economics. Prices fell through the floor. When everything got back to normal and people had some government cash businesses charged more for products and services. I pity the person that didn't take advantage of the prices at that time. 2020-2022. Travel especially.

It's a domino effect. Taking taxes into account you need $1-2/hr raise for you typical blue collar job to erase the increase. Those cats don't own houses, at least the majority. They spend less. You don't need inflation or deflation, just consistent prices in markets. I potentially could be dead before I need another home as we've built a forever home. I don't care about home prices. Cars I buy used.

PanicanDemoralizer says

Inflation drops to 1.6%

If you say so, homie.

I have a spread sheet where I track all expenses vs year ago for every category. These are added to make a geometric mean for my personal inflation vs year ago. It's 6.3%.

The double digit biggies are insurance premiums(*), subscription fees (total amount a pittance, but still up double digits), utilities(*).

(*) These are part of The Facts Of Life in California. You folks in Flyover Country can tell us ("us" includes the Sponsor of this website) how stupid we are for choosing to stay here and get gouged. Sticks and Stones, each of us has our reasons for being stupid enough to accept the trade offs to stay here. Mine is family. Besides, when we decide it's intolerable for us we can leave, as some on this blog have done.

Biggest spend category is grocery (includes non-food) 2.4%.

These do not include interest payments, as we have none.

B.A.C.A.H. says

utilities

https://www.npr.org/2025/08/16/nx-s1-5502671/electricity-bill-high-inflation-ai

Florida Power and Light wants a 3% annual increase in rates for the next 4 years

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also they claim the rate increase is for hardening the electric grid

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/fpl-seeks-approval-for-tempoary-surcharge-on-florida-residents-bills-in-2025/ar-AA1t9c9B

and another article I read is they want to put more money into solar farms

the worst grade for solar in Florida is a B which is for the northern panhandle

whereas the panhandle beaches get a B+ for solar and a B for wind (most offshore)

but I don't see them putting offshore wind turbines unless it is that economically beneficial

just like as far as there never essentially has been Florida offshore oil and gas drilling

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@bacah,

Insurance premium increases are entirely due to political decisions in California, ie not inflationary.

Subscriptions/cable increases are solely greed. IE they are raising rates because they can. Again not inflation.

Groceries is at least in part due to the California increase in min wage as well as increased shrinkage amounts due to shocker political decisions in California. Not entirely inflation.

We pay 12 cents per kilowatt hour (kWh) for electricity in Panama City Beach. Granted from June to September the "heat index" reaches 100 so we rely on the air condition more than Los Angeles which has average of 27 centers per kWh.

I thank DeSantis on bringing more property insurance companies to Florida.

I'm now paying $1650 a year now with Ovation Insurance versus $2250 for Olympus based on $270,000 replacement value, 5% hurricane deductible, $1000 deductible other hazards, and $300,000 liability for a 3 bedroom 2 car garage townhome built after 2016 and within 2 miles of the beach.

When accounting for our cost of the HOA master insurance (structural), our total property insurance is around $3750, so the annual insurance premium is really 1.3% of the replacement value.

FuckTheMainstreamMedia says

bacah,

Insurance premium increases are entirely due to political decisions in California, ie not inflationary.

Subscriptions/cable increases are solely greed. IE they are raising rates because they can. Again not inflation.

Groceries is at least in part due to the California increase in min wage as well as increased shrinkage amounts due to shocker political decisions in California. Not entirely inflation.

Insurance premium increases in general are the result of 1) insurance companies having to have AAA assets to offset potential liabilities and 2) these AAA assets have been earning essentially 0% for the past 18 years, and 3) the long ride from 20% AAA 30-year Treasuries to ZIRP has ended, and is in fact now on the upswing - this is a mortal wound for the insurance industry.

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Truinflation may drop if more businesses do what McDonalds is doing, or at least hold prices steady

"The fast-food giant announced that its most popular combo meals will now cost 15% less than purchasing the items separately.

In addition to the price cuts, McDonald's is expanding its combo offerings to include a $5 breakfast deal and an $8 Big Mac and McNugget special."

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https://fox17.com/news/offbeat/mcdonalds-cuts-combo-meal-prices-to-win-back-customers

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