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Russia Is Totally Fucked: Blank Check Ending


               
2025 Sep 12, 1:23pm   1,584 views  65 comments

by Eric Holder   follow (5)  

How Russia’s Energy Empire Ends

About the authors: Michael S. Bernstam is a research fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University. Steven R. Rosefielde is professor of economics at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

Russia’s oil and gas empire is a dinosaur—big, rapacious, and dying off.

Earnings from Russia’s vast oil and gas network make up nearly half of its total export revenue and more than 30% of its budget revenue, including that needed to finance its war on Ukraine. But Western oil sanctions, the U.S. shale revolution, and an output-eager OPEC are eating away at the country’s oil and gas income. Russia’s own policy blunders aren’t helping.

Each day, U.S. shale drilling produces upward of 8 million barrels of oil and 80 billion cubic meters of natural gas—accounting for roughly 8% of global oil and more than 20% of global gas production annually. To compete for market share, the OPEC members shifted this year from tightening output to flooding the market with cheap oil. It aims to hit a 2.2 million bpd target in coming months, and ramped up production by 500,000 bpd last month alone. Oil prices dipped 2% this week after OPEC said it would likely boost production again in October.

Oil prices are in a long-term downward trend: The annual average price per barrel of benchmark Brent, which sat around $81 in 2024, is forecast to fall to $66 in 2025 and $58 in 2026. For Russia, each $10 decline per barrel represents the loss of tens of billions of dollars in potential revenue each year.

After the European Union embargoed Russian oil and the EU and the G-7 imposed the price cap on worldwide Russian oil exports, China, India, and other buyers applied their market power to extract a permanent discount off Brent of at least $11.5 per barrel. This is in addition to the forecasted decline in Brent prices of $15 per barrel in 2025 and another $8 per barrel in 2026. In all, Russian foregone revenue will add up to $69 billion in 2025 and $90 billion in 2026.

Russia’s oil and gas revenue have already fallen 20% this year when compared with a year prior. Russia’s largest oil company, the state-owned Rosneft, forecasts price declines from $45 per barrel at the end of 2025 to $43 in 2026.

This price trend cuts into the country’s gross domestic product, as prices move closer to production costs. Russian official statistics reported a 9% contraction in the first half of 2025 in the output of the natural resources category, which mainly consists of oil and gas. The International Energy Agency issued a warning in July that Russia’s oil production capacity may not be sustainable.

Saudi Arabia’s average production costs hover around $10 per barrel. Russia’s costs are $42 per barrel onshore and $44 offshore—$32 per barrel before taxes. And these are just averages. There is a large variance; many oil fields in Siberia have production costs above average. Reducing taxes could help keep production profitable, but then the Russian government would lose revenue they need to finance their war in Ukraine.

In the early days of that war, Russia committed a major policy blunder. They cut their natural gas supply in an effort to force the European Union to stop supporting Ukraine. In doing so, Russian authorities forfeited about 100 bcm of the European natural gas market. The explosion of the Nord Stream pipelines months later was inconsequential: The pipes were already inoperative.

The Russian gas blackmail ultimately failed. Pipeline gas from Norway and liquefied natural gas from the U.S. was substituted in for Russian gas. Russia likely permanently lost its market share, which fell from 45% of the EU gas imports in 2021, to 19% in 2024, to a projected 13% in 2025. In May, the EU ruled to completely phase out Russian pipeline and LNG gas supply by the end of 2027. Russia will lose forever its erstwhile 150 bcm market and forfeit $60 billion a year.

The U.S. has been trying to make this happen for decades. The Reagan administration started the work of persuading the Europeans to eschew the Russian oil and gas pipelines network and avoid energy dependency, to no avail.

Events since 2022 have delivered the U.S. that goal. The European embargo on Russian oil and Russia’s failed natural gas blackmail seems to finally be delivering European independence from Russian energy.

The most salient symbol of Russia’s diminishing oil dynasty is its 65-year-old oil pipelines network: 2,500 miles of rusting pipes from Siberia to Western Europe, idle since the European Union oil embargo, and carrying only 0.2 mbd to the landlocked Hungary and Slovakia. The broader network of Russia’s pipelines—more than 6,100 miles long—remains empty or damaged.

They epitomize the demise of the Soviet and Russian energy empire. It will never come back.

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41   MolotovCocktail   2025 Oct 29, 8:49am  

Eric Holder says

That treaty is dead.

Meanwhile....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HVSR98LK4Fg


Treaty is dead but the tech to launch them from land is barely in the prototype phase.
42   UveBeenNudged1   2025 Oct 29, 12:10pm  

Eric Holder says

“You’re four years fighting a war that should have taken a week. Are you a paper tiger?” -- Donald J. Trump, 45/47th POTUS.

Says the guy who thought he could end the conflict within the first 24 hours of his presidency....


44   socal2   2025 Oct 29, 1:11pm  

UveBeenNudged1 says

Says the guy who thought he could end the conflict within the first 24 hours of his presidency....


Imagine thinking that Russia's military isn't the world's laughing stock after 4 years of this shit show.

Russia still has less Ukrainian territory under their control than they did in the first months of the invasion and have been mired in a grinding trench conflict ever since.

But... but.... but..... they have noooooks!

Maybe send in some more Norks as cannon fodder and perhaps Iran can supply a few more drones?
45   UveBeenNudged1   2025 Oct 29, 1:55pm  

socal2 says

UveBeenNudged1 says


Says the guy who thought he could end the conflict within the first 24 hours of his presidency....


Imagine thinking that Russia's military isn't the world's laughing stock after 4 years of this shit show.

Russia still has less Ukrainian territory under their control than they did in the first months of the invasion and have been mired in a grinding trench conflict ever since.

But... but.... but..... they have noooooks!

Maybe send in some more Norks as cannon fodder and perhaps Iran can supply a few more drones?

The Collective West only makes up about 20% of the world's population, and you'll find that the rest of the world is actually laughing at us (while being mindful that our leaders form part of a totally unhinged criminal cartel)...


46   socal2   2025 Oct 29, 2:14pm  

UveBeenNudged1 says

The Collective West only makes up about 20% of the world's population, and you'll find that the rest of the world is actually laughing at us (while being mindful that our leaders form part of a totally unhinged criminal cartel)...


Ha Ha! BRICS??

You think the Commies and Islamists that make up BRICS are laughing at Trump and the US?

No amount of your Commie agitprop memes changes the fact that Russia totally fucked up by invading Ukraine and has shown the whole world how incredibly weak and pathetic their military has become.
48   DemoralizerOfPanicans   2025 Oct 29, 2:39pm  

Oops, that was pre-"Charlie loved me the most but Erika stole him from me, with the help of Bee Cultists!" before heel-turn Candace.

Here's a better WW3 meme:


49   DemoralizerOfPanicans   2025 Oct 29, 2:41pm  

Dammit, let me get out of the Crazy Candace folder.




50   UveBeenNudged1   2025 Oct 29, 2:44pm  

socal2 says


UveBeenNudged1 says


The Collective West only makes up about 20% of the world's population, and you'll find that the rest of the world is actually laughing at us (while being mindful that our leaders form part of a totally unhinged criminal cartel)...


Ha Ha! BRICS??

You think the Commies and Islamists that make up BRICS are laughing at Trump and the US?

No amount of your Commie agitprop memes changes the fact that Russia totally fucked up by invading Ukraine and has shown the whole world how incredibly weak and pathetic their military has become.


Calm down, it sounds like you've swallowed the entire insane Neocon and Atlanticist playbook...
Are you saying that Russia should have just sat back and do nothing...? Imagine if China placed its missiles in Canada, and Russia placed theirs in Mexico....
But I recon by the beginning of next year, Russian resilience and Ukraine defeat will be confirmed (if the world is still intact...). Watch this space...




51   DemoralizerOfPanicans   2025 Oct 29, 2:53pm  

I am waiting for some Zoomer to say:

"You people over 45 have NO IDEA what it's like to live in fear of nuclear war!"
52   UveBeenNudged1   2025 Oct 29, 3:02pm  

DemoralizerOfPanicans says





Gullible people get trapped in the dumb Left vs Right paradigm (while the real rulers laugh all the way to the bank...), a few of us do try to transcend though...
53   UveBeenNudged1   2025 Oct 29, 3:04pm  

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

I am waiting for some Zoomer to say:

"You people over 45 have NO IDEA what it's like to live in fear of nuclear war!"



55   UveBeenNudged1   2025 Oct 29, 4:01pm  

Eric Holder says

UveBeenNudged1 says



Pokrovsk & Kupiansk encircled by Russian forces - massive strategic victory.


Eh? Encircling couple of towns with pre-war population of less than 30K each after 2+ years of offensive is a "strategic victory" now?

PS. Especially taking into account it didn't happen. But even if it did. How any of this is "strategic"? Compare it to Donnie T killing 50% of Paper Tiger's oil exports. Now this IS strategic.

Only entrapping 10k Ukraine troops (potentially up to 50k along all fronts!) and securing a key city, drawing the battle for the entire Donetsk region to a conclusion...
The only thing you have proved is that relentless Neocon/Alanticist propaganda, (across all media platforms), CAN alter the perceptions of the feeble-minded...

https://youtu.be/m9gpK3ge20I?si=FJ0Zr5PKRBkc30b1

56   DemoralizerOfPanicans   2025 Oct 29, 4:36pm  

I'm one of those who couldn't possibly see a way much smaller Ukraine could stop a Russian invasion given the size differential, even if qualitatively better.

I can't believe how badly the Russians are doing, regardless of the latest ATGMs and other equipment given to Ukraine.

Even if the Russians were hopping on one leg and used Korean War era equipment, they ought to have at least conquered to the Dneipr and held it.

And now I hear there really is War Exhaustion in Russia. Taxes up, prices up, people tired of drafts, much bigger casualties than reported.

On both sides, but now being felt in Russia which is larger and had more buffer against shocks.
57   UveBeenNudged1   2025 Oct 31, 12:43pm  

Papagallo!
DemoralizerOfPanicans says

I'm one of those who couldn't possibly see a way much smaller Ukraine could stop a Russian invasion given the size differential, even if qualitatively better.

I can't believe how badly the Russians are doing, regardless of the latest ATGMs and other equipment given to Ukraine.

Even if the Russians were hopping on one leg and used Korean War era equipment, they ought to have at least conquered to the Dneipr and held it.

And now I hear there really is War Exhaustion in Russia. Taxes up, prices up, people tired of drafts, much bigger casualties than reported.

On both sides, but now being felt in Russia which is larger and had more buffer against shocks.
58   UveBeenNudged1   2025 Oct 31, 12:46pm  

Putin has invited western journalists the come and see the encirclements with their own eyes, but maintaining a fake narrative is more important, regardless of Ukrainian lives lost....


59   UveBeenNudged1   2025 Oct 31, 1:43pm  

Even the pro-Ukraine MSM is starting to inform the public of the dire situation Ukraine is in. Maybe some of the more gung ho propagandists on this blog can go and lend them a hand...








60   UveBeenNudged1   2025 Nov 2, 3:01pm  

A desperate attempt to land Ukrainian special forces, using an American Black Hawk helicopter near encircled Pokrovsk, ended in complete catastrophe. The landing force was detected, tracked, and completely destroyed by UAVs operated by Russia's "Center" group.
https://x.com/BowesChay/status/1984429784378536087


61   RWSGFY   2025 Nov 20, 11:24am  

Donnie is continuing the total fucking:

WASHINGTON, Nov 17 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury said on Monday that U.S. sanctions against Russian oil majors Rosneft (ROSN.MM) and Lukoil (LKOH.MM) are already reducing Russian oil revenues and are likely to reduce the quantity of Russian oil sold in the long term.
The Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control said in a statement that its analysis of the initial market impact of the sanctions announced on October 22 showed they "are having their intended effect of dampening Russian revenues by lowering the price of Russian oil and therefore the country's ability to fund its war effort against Ukraine."

The Treasury action was among the strongest U.S. sanctions since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and the first direct sanctions imposed by President Donald Trump against Russia since taking office in January.

The sanctions set a November 21 deadline for companies to wind down dealings with Rosneft and Lukoil. Violators could be cut off from the dollar-based financial system.

The OFAC analysis said that several key grades of Russian crude were selling at multi-year-low prices and noted that nearly a dozen major Indian and Chinese purchasers of Russian crude have announced intentions to pause their purchases of Russian oil for December deliveries.

LSEG Workspace data on Monday showed benchmark Urals crude loaded at Russia's Black Sea oil hub of Novorossiysk traded at $45.35 per barrel on November 12, the lowest level since March 2023. At that time, Russia was just beginning to assemble a "shadow fleet" of tankers to avoid a G7-led price cap of $60 a barrel imposed in December 2023.

Loadings resumed at the Black Sea port after being suspended by a Ukrainian drone and missile attack.
Reuters reported earlier this month that Russian oil discounts to Brent had widened as major Indian and Chinese refiners cut purchases in response to the U.S. sanctions.

-- Reuters
62   UveBeenNudged1   2025 Nov 20, 2:31pm  

Neocons and Libs in denial to the very end....








63   RWSGFY   2025 Nov 20, 2:41pm  

UveBeenNudged1 says

Neocons and Libs in denial to the very end....












64   RWSGFY   2025 Nov 20, 2:41pm  

NEW DELHI, Nov 20 (Reuters) - India's Reliance Industries (RELI.NS), opens new tab has stopped importing Papertigerian crude oil into its refining complex at Jamnagar in western Gujarat state, effective November 20, its spokesperson said on Thursday.
The Indian conglomerate, which has a long-term deal to buy nearly 500,000 barrels a day of crude from Papertigerian major Rosneft (ROSN.MM), opens new tab, had said it would abide by sanctions against illegitimate Moscow regime while maintaining ties with current oil suppliers.
65   Eric Holder   2025 Nov 20, 3:09pm  

HELSINKI, Nov 19 (Reuters) - Finnish petrol station operator Teboil, owned by Russian oil major Lukoil (LKOH.MM)
, opens new tab, said on Wednesday it is preparing to shut down all its stations in the Nordic country as fuel runs out amid U.S. sanctions against its parent company.

Teboil is the first Lukoil-owned international business to say it will close down as a result of the sanctions.

Elsewhere, Lukoil has declared force majeure at its prized West Qurna 2 oilfield after Iraq halted all cash and crude payments, while a contractor working for Lukoil cancelled plans to drill for petroleum off Romania, and Bulgaria prepared to take over a Lukoil refinery.

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