patrick.net

China is fucked. Travel a bit around the country. Hell most you guys could drive to AZ, just north of Phoenix by Anthem, AZ. I'll give anyone credit where it's due. The CHIPS act is and will be a hit. Biden sucks, but there's never been a POTUS that's a 100% failure. It's a massive plant. I don't want him re-elected but he's done a few good things. No different than Trump allowing little shit Fauci run Covid. That was a fuck up.

One child policy screwed China. We're moving basic chip making back here. Once that leaves China is fucked. Border issues aside, we have plenty of people that will work for $18/hr. No dealing with cargo ships across the Pacific. West coats unions at ports. It really makes no sense to produce a damn thing in China at this point. The tides are turning.

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Another Chicom hacking story, and what concerns me is they stated they could "compromise" a home router and home computers. How can they do this if there are firewalls in place, unless the router and computer has built-in backdoors ?

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The emails they are accused of sending targets often appeared to be from prominent news outlets or journalists, containing hidden tracking links. If a person opened the email sent to them, their information - including their location and IP addresses - would be sent to a server allegedly controlled by the seven defendants.

This information was then used to enable more "direct and sophisticated targeted hacking, such as compromising the recipients' home routers and other electronic devices", US prosecutors said.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68659095

WookieMan says

One child policy screwed China. We're moving basic chip making back here. Once that leaves China is fucked.

No. Chip manufacture is largely automated, it's a MAJOR INVESTMENT to build a plant, but look at where we are. In 20 years, a computer chip isn't going to be as much of an improvement as it was from a chip 20 years ago.

It's not going to be going from like 1980 to 2000 in terms of computing power in the next year years, it hasn't been in the last 20 years. We have lower power chips, but I wouldn't say computer chips have VASTLY improved in the last 20 years. A machine from 2010 is fine to use, it's just kind of bulky.

The fact that we don't have enough power generation for the AI server farms is going to put a kibosh on demand anyway.

Misc says

The Iranians are simply fleeing the oppressive regime

.... leaving their relatives as hostages behind.

https://notthebee.com/article/map-shows-chinese-owned-farmland-next-to-19-us-military-bases-in-alarming-threat-to-national-security

The New York Post made a map of Chinese-owned farmland ... why is so much of it next to US military bases?

The New York Post has released a disturbing report showing 19 sensitive military installations in close proximity to farmland recently purchased by the Chinese.

Per the report:

Robert S. Spalding III, a retired United States Air Force brigadier general whose work focuses US-China relations told The Post: "It is concerning due to the proximity to strategic locations... These locations can be used to set up intelligence collection sites and the owners can be influential in local politics as we have seen in the past... It is alarming we do not have laws on the books that would prevent the Chinese from buying property in the US."

Take a look at this map and see for yourself.

I don't get the map though. The red areas are crazy large, including the whole Big Island of Hawaii. Can't be right.

Chinese and US are both in a fight to see who can keep from going into a civil war the longest, winner take a all.

Patrick says

I don't get the map though. The red areas are crazy large, including the whole Big Island of Hawaii. Can't be right.

The Big Island's vast interior is volcanic wasteland. Most of the farms are on Maui, I believe.

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

ad says

You have a country that is essentially 95% of the same ethnicity / race, so its not going to be hard to maintain cohesion.

They have a low trust society, unlike the Japanese.

Russia is a very low-trust society as well:

https://www.rt.com/russia/603009-russians-distrust-each-other-poll/

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

ad says

You have a country that is essentially 95% of the same ethnicity / race, so its not going to be hard to maintain cohesion.

cia in action, yet failed.

Patrick says

Russia is a very low-trust society as well:

That's why 90% of your dash cam videos come out of Russia. People fake accidents there all the time.

https://www.wnd.com/2024/09/chinas-economy-nosediving-as-u-s-recognizes-serious-national-security-threat/

China’s economy nosediving as U.S. recognizes serious national security threat ...

McGeever added Morgan Stanley economists are forecasting China’s Gross Domestic Product is expected to only reach 3.9% this year and into 2025. The U.S. economy, meanwhile, is expected to have a GDP growth of 5.5%.

This is a drastic drop from the 4.2% forecast by Morgan Stanley in January, while Goldman Sachs had China with a 4.9% GDP growth, and JPMorgan predicted growth as high as 4.9%.

“China’s stock market is also a notable laggard. As the rising tide of global monetary easing has lifted stock markets around the world to new highs, China has gone in the opposite direction. Shanghai’s blue chip index is down 15% since May, has nearly halved since February 2021, and is close to making new multi-year lows,” McGeever said.

According to a report from Bloomberg, China’s car dealerships are facing an almost $20 billion loss, after Chinese consumers have become reluctant to make major purchases.

Patrick says

The U.S. economy, meanwhile, is expected to have a GDP growth of 5.5%.

Patrick says

McGeever added Morgan Stanley economists are forecasting China’s Gross Domestic Product is expected to only reach 3.9% this year and into 2025. The U.S. economy, meanwhile, is expected to have a GDP growth of 5.5%.

This is a drastic drop from the 4.2% forecast by Morgan Stanley in January, while Goldman Sachs had China with a 4.9% GDP growth, and JPMorgan predicted growth as high as 4.9%.

No one knows China's economy. I don't trust the US on their numbers. They just flubbed on employment numbers hugely. China is likely even worse. Might be negative GDP, but we'll never know. Making numbers up here, but I'd guess less than 100k US citizens go to China every year. I'm sure there's CIA and other intel happening, but they're not economist.

Also, think about it. Tourism is a big deal for most countries. I've never met a person that wants to go to mainland China. Not one. It's only business travelers. The Chinese I've met come to the US (obviously). I was at Grand Teton NP and a Chinese lady was lost. I seriously have no clue how. That's an easy park to navigate.

So my wife and I got in fight before entering the park. She smashes a muffin on me saying she hopes a bear eats me. So I have muffin on me, we stop to take pictures and this Chinese gal comes at me. 6-12" from my face. We had been in the park the previous day. I was polite, but I was just like for real? You can't find the entrance. I don't care about language. The muffin all over my shirt was funny though. Didn't even think about it. She's probably like these crazy fucking Americans. We were that morning.

Also the hill billy fireworks being unloaded was hysterical in a pinkies up mountain town. Not an amazing show, but it was cool with the mountain echo. They had a rental truck. No explosive markings on the truck. I knew we were in for a good show. And of course we got in an argument about being able to see the fireworks from the balcony of the condo. I was right. Just sat there with a beer watching fireworks blow up from a mountain. She wanted to sit in the field with a bunch of other fucking humans. Sorry, I don't like crowds.

https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/pick-your-poison

Prices Won't Stop Falling in China, and Beijing Is Grasping for Solutions
Companies are pumping out goods amid falling prices, creating vicious cycle that is eroding confidence

The country that invented paper is making way too much of it.

So Shandong Chenming Paper, one of China’s biggest paper manufacturers, did what any company faced with overcapacity would do: It cut prices to unload more supply while it tried to ride out the storm.

Instead, its losses mounted. Last month, the company said it had racked up around $250 million in overdue debts. Creditors sued and some of the manufacturer’s bank accounts were frozen, it said.

The papermaker’s troubles are only the latest sign of the havoc caused by falling prices in China, as factories struggle to cope with overcapacity and weak demand.

Chinese leaders this week pledged to do more to stimulate the economy, including by cutting interest rates and boosting government borrowing. But pressure is building on Beijing to take even more forceful action to prevent a downward spiral of deflation that becomes self-reinforcing, potentially landing China in a longer-term recession.

Prices for goods leaving Chinese factories have fallen year-over-year for 26 consecutive months, dropping 2.5% in November from a year earlier, and there is little sign of them turning up again soon. China’s gross domestic product deflator, a broader gauge of price levels across the economy, has been in negative territory for six consecutive quarters, the longest stretch since the late 1990s.

The fear is that deflation is becoming ingrained in China. As falling prices sap profitability, companies could postpone investments or shed workers, leading more people to cut back on spending. Others might put off purchases because they think prices will drop even more.

“It becomes a vicious cycle,” said Penelope Prime, founding director of the China Research Center, an Atlanta-based think tank.

This week, China’s 24-man Politburo said it would implement more proactive fiscal policy and adopt a “moderately loose” monetary policy next year—the first introduction of such language since 2008. The leaders also vowed to boost domestic demand and stabilize the housing market, which some economists have said is needed to reignite inflation.

At Shandong Chenming Paper bosses wound up shutting down nearly three-quarters of the manufacturer’s production capacity. The company didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Other companies have kept cranking out more. China’s output of paper and paperboard year to date through October is up about 10% from the same period last year, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics. Prices for paper products leaving Chinese factories have been dropping year-over-year since October 2022.

Other industries have followed a similar pattern. William Li, chief executive of Chinese electric-car company NIO, said on a call with analysts in September that makers of internal-combustion-engine vehicles in China have entered an “unsustainable cycle or a vicious cycle” of price cutting, hurting profits. Vehicle production in China continues to rise.

The problem is that once expectations for lower prices become entrenched, it is hard to turn them around. “The longer deflation lasts, it becomes entrenched into people’s expectations about future economic prospects,” said Eswar Prasad, professor of trade policy at Cornell University and a former head of the International Monetary Fund’s China division. “It becomes harder and harder to use macroeconomic stimulus.”

Lisa Wang, a salesperson at a textile manufacturer in China’s Zhejiang province, said new tariffs under Trump could add more pressure. Her factory has already had to cut prices to compete with the many other factories that make similar bedding products, eating into profits and forcing it to cut its workforce from about 600 people before the Covid-19 pandemic to about 400 today.

So deflation is NOT a good thing? Who would have thought...

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https://therecord.media/two-army-soldiers-charged-selling-secrets-to-china

Two US Army soldiers charged with selling military secrets to China

Two active-duty and one former U.S. Army soldiers were arrested on Thursday for allegedly stealing classified materials from the military and selling them to conspirators in China.

Ruoyo Duan — who served in the military from 2013 until 2017 — and 1st Lt. Li Tian were charged with conspiring to commit bribery and theft of government property. Jian Zhao, a battery supply sergeant, faces the same charges, as well as conspiring to obtain and transmit national defense information to an individual not authorized to receive it.

Both Zhao and Tian were stationed at Joint Base Lewis-McChord near Tacoma, according to separate federal grand jury indictments.
,

AD says

Two US Army soldiers charged with selling military secrets to China

Were they really "selling," or is China where Zhao's Duan's and Tian's real allegiance lie.

HeadSet says

AD says

Two US Army soldiers charged with selling military secrets to China

Were they really "selling," or is China where Zhao's Duan's and Tian's real allegiance lie.

both

HeadSet says

AD says

Two US Army soldiers charged with selling military secrets to China

Were they really "selling," or is China where Zhao's Duan's and Tian's real allegiance lie.

Please expand on this.

.

WookieMan says

China is fucked.

I wouldn't go so far as to say China is "f*cked".

But WookieMan is spot on with his remark that China has limited its potential with cultural stuff like the One Child Policy.

One Child Policy has become a cultural norm. I say this not as an observer of western media from far away. I say this as having many H-1 and green card colleagues from China while working in the trenches of tech for decades, many lunchroom discussions, etc with them. China will become old before it becomes the only superpower.

We are a relatively younger country with a brighter future. As long as the MAGA folks don't slam the door on immigration (ahem bros, I didn't say open the floodgates on our southern border) we will have a brighter future.

Trump should shut China down, blockade and sanction them until the CCP relinquishes power and steps down.
Time to show those Coolies who's in charge around here.

I will have to find my Demographic age Chart.

By 2040, China is going to have a severe shortage of 18-40 year old men

Also, China is experiencing Spoiled Woman syndrome as well. I don't remember the details but recently several Provincial Governments altered the divorce laws to disenfranchise women, and protect men. I will hunt down the video later.

I don't endorse the imposition of US-Western Gen Terms on CHYna.

B.A.C.A.H. says

I say this as having many H-1 and green card colleagues from China while working in the trenches of tech for decades, many lunchroom discussions, etc with them

AmericanKulak says

Also, China is experiencing Spoiled Woman syndrome as well

I could tell you stories.

Totally unrelated side note most of you can ignore:

@Patrick - block quotes are looking real snazzy now. Real snazzy.

AmericanKulak says

By 2040, China is going to have a severe shortage of 18-40 year old men

They already do. The average age of a Chinese worker now is older than the average American. Has been since 2019 or so. And every year it rises more than 'just one year difference in age', too.

And because of One Child, for every one working age Chinese now there are two parents and four grandparents they have to support at some level, too. Directly support, not just via transfer payment programs like social security.

NOW, not in the future.

Second runner up in the Demographically Fucked Department was Russua before the war. Now it is Ukraine, followed by Russia.

Then there are the Demographically Fucked countries that managed to get rich before they got old. Japan tops the list but South Korea will soon eclipse them. Canada and Europe are next. The latter two went with mass immigration to try to solve that problem...with the Canadian's barely making it semi-successful enough to buy them another decade or two while the Europeans fucked it up completely.

Rich But Old countries have more options. Not all will be able to handle it like Japan has managed (so far). South Korea is going to be very demonstrative to watch.

We don't have it nearly so bad compared to everyone else. Sweden, France and New Zealand have so far been popping out enough native born babies. Mexico and India have robust but not too many birthrates, too.

OkDOGEisAmountingToSomething says

Demographically Fucked

The solution to "Demographically Fucked" is to work toward a sustainable economy with a stable population. A population cannot continually grow or else you are on the way to a billion people in the US, then onward to two billion to support the first billion. That cannot happen and still sustain a first world living standard.

https://www.newsweek.com/us-warned-caribbean-becoming-chinese-lake-2041296

HeadSet says

OkDOGEisAmountingToSomething says
Demographically Fucked

The solution to "Demographically Fucked" is to work toward a sustainable economy with a stable population. A population cannot continually grow or else you are on the way to a billion people in the US, then onward to two billion to support the first billion. That cannot happen and still sustain a first world living standard.

Yeah, but China F'd up bigly. They also lie about their stats. We do too, but it's tracked better. The US is just having kids later so there will be a gap. I've got a lot of 32-40 year old friends with 2-5 year old kids and mostly have 2-3 of them.

I think Chinese Women want kids and if they're of some wealth just leave and find men elsewhere if they can speak another language even if broken english (language). Met one in Grand Tetons, Chinese chick didn't know my wife was with me. If unmarried I'd have been tempted. She had a smart phone and couldn't find the main entrance so she was clearly hitting on me. She got there and wouldn't be that stupid given the loop of the Tetons.

I find it weird that there are so many Asians at national parks. I'm talking out my ass, but most seem Chinese and female is all to bring it back to the conversation. I think China has a traveling problem with women looking to hook up in the US and other countries.

You don't need to grow, but if you exist, you at least need to replace yourself and your spouse or chick you fuck. 2 kids. It should be a 1:1 ratio. One adult, one kid. Some will make up with more kids, so it's not awful to not have kids, but you generally should replace yourself with another human. The US doesn't need 1B people. Just keep it level with people the right age.

WookieMan says

You don't need to grow, but if you exist, you at least need to replace yourself and your spouse or chick you fuck. 2 kids.

The US was very prosperous when it had a population of 200 million and would still be so if we declined back to that level. Less resource depletion and used houses would be affordable in manner that used cars typically are.

HeadSet says

The solution to "Demographically Fucked" is to work toward a sustainable economy with a stable population. A population cannot continually grow or else you are on the way to a billion people in the US, then onward to two billion to support the first billion. That cannot happen and still sustain a first world living standard.

Collapsing populations are not stable either. And if you think our credit based system is hooked on expanding growth...it definitely cam not handle negative growth.

Semi-Related

"Russia should 'introduce geopolitical disorder into internal American activity, encouraging all kinds of separatism and ethnic, social, and racial conflicts, actively supporting all dissident movements – extremist, racist, and sectarian groups, thus destabilizing internal political processes in the U.S. It would also make sense simultaneously to support isolationist tendencies in American politics'."
- Aleksander Dugin, 1997

(Not that I think Russia is anything like the prime mover in the calculated destablization/demoralization of the USA)

Entitled-Spoiled Single "Leftover" Women Syndrome hits China

Compilation of Chinese women past the "Christmas Cake" date (25) screaming about new CCP Divorce/Inheritance Laws.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sCp4s8zf2xw

To redeem the dropping birthrate, and respond to complaints of older Chinese that their sons were being Divraped, CCP just passed a law saying that men who inherit a house, or whose parents pay a sum towards a property before the wedding or during marriage, get to keep it in divorce. "Dragon lady" Divorce Plotters scream with rage on Chinese Social Media.

Other takeaways:
Chinese families are tuning down traditional, expensive weddings in favor of simple McD's and "Milk Tea" parties
Chinese women vow not to compromise in marriage, including rather plain ones.

The US solution is yet again 1.) learn a trade. 2.) move out of the big cities.

They will be lucky to be as prosperous as Cuba by 2049 if they stay the course of Communism.
Communism is a blueprint to failure and misery. Too many Fat cats depending on lazy bastards living on the dole. Nothing happens, food security plummets, and the quality of life craters. Hopeless despair is all that is afforded.

They could be an economic powerhouse, but they have to get rid of the CCP hang the mother fuckers until they shit their pants green.
Figure out an economic policy that creates a path to put every citizen that wants a Tofu Dreg condo into one as cheap as possible, and create commerce where those apartment blocs are located, and quit trying to centralize everything to one major city. Value their famers and make it easy for them to return to the fields and profitable. Then bring back manufacturing by protecting the IP of foreign investors, or foster homegrown manufacturer investors.
It would be so easy for them to do, but it will never happen as long as the Shitface Commies are in charge, and that fat fuck Whinny the poo is dictating China.

AmericanKulak says

Compilation of Chinese women past the "Christmas Cake" date (25)

Thought that was a Japanese thing. They don't celebrate Xmas in China.

OkDOGEisAmountingToSomething says

HeadSet says
The solution to "Demographically Fucked" is to work toward a sustainable economy with a stable population. A population cannot continually grow or else you are on the way to a billion people in the US, then onward to two billion to support the first billion. That cannot happen and still sustain a first world living standard.

Collapsing populations are not stable either. And if you think our credit based system is hooked on expanding growth...it definitely cam not handle negative growth.

I agree there has to be a compromise somewhere between over population and collapsing population, as far as this goal of stable population.

Innovation and productivity gains can achieve this, as well as society adjusting to and accommodating an aging population.

I agree as the way the economy is configured you have to have ~1% annual increases in population growth.

Japan is a good model or example to study in regards to this subject matter.

.

Tenpoundbass says

Figure out an economic policy that creates a path to put every citizen that wants a Tofu Dreg condo into one as cheap as possible, and create commerce where those apartment blocs are located, and quit trying to centralize everything to one major city.

As far as the Chicom elites go...over 90% of the population in China owns their own home. Over 50% own multiple properties.

In the US, its 66% homeownership rate with 12.5% owning multiple properties.

Besides the crappy environmental issues, the Chinese leadership seems less controlling overall than the US's.

OkDOGEisAmountingToSomething says

Thought that was a Japanese thing. They don't celebrate Xmas in China.

They know what it is, but yeah it's Japan, not China.

China just calls them "Leftovers" and the cutoff is 27: shèngnǚ