patrick.net

Tesla was in the top ten of ALL cars sold in the USA in 2022. Can't be all bad.

rocketjoe79 says

Tesla was in the top ten of ALL cars sold in the USA in 2022. Can't be all bad.

They work as a niche product and do rightfully dominate their niche.

clambo says

In N. California, they are running on electricity made by burning natural gas in Moss Landing, CA.
It's better to have a car just run on natural gas and be done with it.

I dunno about that: there are plenty of spectacular nat gas vehicle explosions on youtube. Like this one for example: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lO055g6JqLs

While Tesla batteries burn very hot at least they don't explode. I say let people have them if they want them, but subsidizing them is unnecessary.

Musk demonstrated, on a stage in 2013, the capability to swap batteries robotically.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H5V0vL3nnHY
Twice as fast as putting gas in a vehicle.

This wasn't just a stunt, but a reasonable attempt to overcome objections to battery range anxiety. Was he serious about putting thousands of robots and even more thousands of battery packs across the country? I think he ran the numbers and decided building charging places was more profitable and practical. Especially as batteries have become more efficient, and will continue to do so, in the future.

Battery Day 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HK79ioBW8Mg

There's neither the capacity nor infrastructure to support just 10% EV replacement of combustion engines in the USA.

EVs will be made mandatory, while far less Electric or infrastructure is built.

There was some place in Canada, they replaced some 100s+ MW fossil fuel plant with some 0.5mW on a good day solar station or some bullshit and said it was a great Green victory.

The end goal is to remove POVs.

Hugh_Mongous says

rocketjoe79 says

Tesla was in the top ten of ALL cars sold in the USA in 2022. Can't be all bad.

They work as a niche product and do rightfully dominate their niche.

If Tesla continues their current growth rate, I predict the company will be #5 in 3 years. The Cybertruck, due to start making deliveries this year, has a 1.5 Million unit backlog, worth about $80 billion. I've been considering adding more Tesla Stock to my portfolio. I got "lucky" and made 5x the last time I cashed out. Paid for my Model Y.

Hugh_Mongous says

rocketjoe79 says

Tesla was in the top ten of ALL cars sold in the USA in 2022. Can't be all bad.

They work as a niche product and do rightfully dominate their niche.

I agree it’s a niche product. It’s not for everyone

AmericanKulak says

The end goal is to remove POVs.

Correct. That will happen by making POVs gradually unaffordable by 2035. By then, POV prices will hit $100k and have a high per mile tax.

HeadSet says

WookieMan says

I can tow 14k with a Honda civic.

Even an F-150 or Chevy Silverado full sized pickup with the special towing package would have a hard time towing 14,000 lbs. My Pathfinder has a towing capacity of 6,000 lbs, and that is high for that class of vehicle, let alone for the much smaller Civic.

It's an over exaggeration on my end. It is possible with weight distribution hitches and substantially unsafe with a Civic. But it's doable. The energy needed to tow that amount over average distances, say 100-200 miles is not remotely possible with current tech with EV's. As I said a 14k trailer you're looking at 20-50 miles with an EV. It's pointless. It would take me 3 days to get to Nashville from Northern IL. 3 days back. I can do that is 6-7 hours now.

I'm looking at lithium golf cart batteries currently. While lighter, it's still a shit ton of weight. The physics don't work. Maybe the major auto companies lobby the fuck out of ICE vehicles. But EV's are decades away for people that tow stuff. 2050 best case is my estimate. And that's assuming much of the population dies off.

Ultimately you need coal, LGN or nukes to power a transportation network reliant on electric. They're pushing for solar and wind. Whatever....

Eman says

Plug it in, go for a walk or jog, or shopping.

You treat this time lost to charging as if it costs nothing, while the study in the OP doesn't. Basically their approach is more comprehensive.

Hugh_Mongous says

Eman says

Plug it in, go for a walk or jog, or shopping.

You treat this time lost to charging as if it costs nothing, while the study in the OP doesn't. Basically their approach is more comprehensive.

I do it when it’s convenient. When it’s not, I charge at home. There are always options.

Last 31 days, used 375 kWh. Charged half at home and half for free. Cost $50 to charge at home. I average 288 Wh/mile so about 1,300 miles driven. Say at 20 gal/mi equivalent for a similar car, it would have cost me $260 at $4/gallon. $100 for electricity if charged at home 100%. Pure fact.

I am saving about $200/month in gas over the last year. I only use the Super Chargers if on a road trip and have to pay for it. I charge at home 98% of the time and it costs me $8 to fill up.

My car was paid off in 2012. Gas is the least of your concerns when you are sitting on a depreciating asset. My gas guzzler will still be running in 20 years with minimal maintenance. Not sure I could say the same with an EV that is 40 years old. Plus, in cold climates the EV lose range and power faster than you can say carbon footprint.

socal2 says

I am saving about $200/month in gas over the last year. I only use the Super Chargers if on a road trip and have to pay for it. I charge at home 98% of the time and it costs me $8 to fill up.

You need those savings to buy your next battery.

People who respond to a study conclusions with their own happy corner case don't understand that they are not everybody and everybody is not them. It's useful to examine and critisize the methodology, but single counter-example has no value whatsoever.

Our overlords are aggressively pushing switch to all-EV but this particular study shows that it will make most of the people worse off.

And, BTW, the guy who did a study owns an EV - the article mentions it literally in the first line.

Eman says

Very well said DeficitHawk. It’s ironic the folks, who are negative about EV, don’t own an EV.

We have 2 EV’s and no gas car. Wife’s car charges about twice a week at home during off-peak. I get free charge for life and also charge about twice a week. Plug it in, go for a walk or jog, or shopping. Come back and 87-95% charged most of the time.

Most siblings also own 1-2 EV. It works for us. The experience has been great in the last 5+ years.

If you lived in Minnesota would you be just as happy with your EV's?

zzyzzx says

If you lived in Minnesota would you be just as happy with your EV's?

Hells no. Everyone practically has some towable toy (boat, snowmobile, flatbed trailer, camper) in MN. I rarely see a Tesla where I live in IL outside of Chicago and the collar suburbs. Just came back from Miami and I saw flocks of Teslas everywhere. They simply make zero sense in 90% of America outside of warmer coastal areas and major cities.

And yes, that's most of America. You're going to have an impossible time convincing fly over country, beside Texas, that EV's are a good idea. They're an awful idea north of I-80 specifically besides the Pacific Northwest and that's just the coastal area.

I get they're popular in certain areas. They simply just don't work in most land areas of America if you're being practical and drive more than 100 miles. I'm not sitting at a charging station for damn near a half hour. I can pump 24 gallons in under 3 minutes. Might be two if it's a good gas station. I can then go 400 miles and not even think about where the next gas station is. We drive way more than you Coastal boys. 30-50k miles per year on each car. We'd live at charging stations and the EV's have no utility. That's the life in flyover country.

Blue says

You need those savings to buy your next battery.

I'm leasing as I get a car allowance for work and we can't keep cars beyond 3 years per company policy.

Meanwhile, I am driving the equivalent of a Porsche in terms of fun and performance for the cost of a Hyundai.

Also, with few exceptions - the Tesla batteries are holding up just fine with the older models (going on 10 years now) with minimal degradation and they expect over a million miles on average with the current models.

WookieMan says

They simply just don't work in most land areas of America if you're being practical and drive more than 100 miles. I'm not sitting at a charging station for damn near a half hour.

The average person in the US drives about 35 miles a day. Even in cold climates and towing something, that is less than 20% of the battery.

I just did a road trip from San Diego to Phoenix in my Tesla Model Y over the holidays and had to stop twice for about 12 minutes of charging each way. Just enough time to stretch my legs and take a piss. I could have chosen to stop only once and do a longer 25 minute charge - but we typically stop twice on this trip anyway.

If you can't charge at home or you are in the extreme minority that is road tripping across the country towing stuff all the time - than an EV is not practical. But for 90%+ of the US population, the Tesla's totally meet our driving needs without any hassle.

socal2 says

Also, with few exceptions - the Tesla batteries are holding up just fine with the older models (going on 10 years now) with minimal degradation and they expect over a million miles on average with the current models.

The batteries are fine. They will last 1M miles. 98% of Tesla drivers won't hit 100-150k miles though. It's an impossible feat to guarantee unlike diesel engines. Any semi batteries pulling a trailer will be from port/rail hub to warehouse within 50 miles. So don't bring that up. Cross country ain't happening.

There would be train engines already if it would work since the weight of the batteries could easily be handled with existing infrastructure. EV's cannot pull weigh efficiently. So sedans and small SUV's is all we'll likely see in our lifetime for full blown EV's. Ride a four person golf cart alone and then toss the other three people on. Then do the same with a gas golf cart. Don't need to be an engineer to figure it out.

Enjoy them for your short trips in a sedan that will get smashed in an accident. I'll take a truck or similar sized SUV with an ICE 10 out of 10 times. I don't need or want speed. I need utility. Not 1 non-hybrid EV provides that. I foresee Tesla sales dropping significantly in the coming years. They're reaching market saturation where no one needs/wants one. They'll likely have some trade in program to initiate future sales. I'd personally get out of any Tesla stock position soon, but I hate making predictions. Hybrids are where it's at. You still need gas in most parts of the country.

And I'm not trying to be aggressive. I just think people that are fans don't understand the reality of other people's lives and tout EV's as being the future. They're not and won't be.

socal2 says

extreme minority that is road tripping across the country towing stuff all the time

Not making fun. Some CA people are extremely naive about how the rest of the country lives. Not saying you specifically. Which EV can tow 9k lbs gross like my Armada can and still get 300 miles? For that reason EV's are a non-starter here in the midwest. We're nice people, but you'd be mocked out of your Tesla here in IL, WI, MN, etc.

We can also go significant times without power here. They simply don't make sense for most of the American land mass. Sincerely not trying to be a dick. EV's have their use, I like driving them. They're just not practical for most of the country as far as land mass goes if that makes sense. And I have no interest in living in or near a city. I like my camper. I need my trailer. And EV's are no where near checking those boxes.

WookieMan says

Not making fun. Some CA people are extremely naive about how the rest of the country lives. Not saying you specifically. Which EV can tow 9k lbs gross like my Armada can and still get 300 miles? For that reason EV's are a non-starter here in the midwest.

I was born and raised in the Midwest and our family never had to tow anything in our lives. We were far from poor, but never had toys like boats or campers to tow around. I'd wager that over 90% of the driving public in the US never tows anything.

Again - if your specific needs require frequent towing hundreds of miles, an EV is not for you at this stage. But the current Tesla line-up totally meets the needs of majority drivers.......other than the high price tag.

WookieMan says

Enjoy them for your short trips in a sedan that will get smashed in an accident.

Did you see the Tesla that was purposefully driven off the cliff on PCH last week where everyone survived? The Tesla is literally the safest rated car in human history. And since the vast majority of US drivers do nothing but short trips 99% of their time - good EV's like Tesla's totally fit the bill. It was a total joy to drive to Phoenix letting Autopilot handle 95% of the drive so I could enjoy the scenery and surf the web on the infotainment system.
https://www.notateslaapp.com/news/956/tesla-model-y-receives-top-safety-score-of-any-vehicle-ever-tested-video

socal2 says

I was born and raised in the Midwest and our family never had to tow anything in our lives.

Not rural. Or you didn't notice or are older than me by 20 years. Again, not knocking EV's. I walk 2-4 miles M-F around my town. I'm down basically every street. Not one Leaf, Tesla, etc. ~800 homes. There's easily 800 trailers, campers, etc. WI and MN it's even crazier.

I've driven Teslas. They're nice. It's hitting market saturation though without increased range for most of the country or the utility. That's fact.

And I'll completely disagree on safety. That is totally relative to the situation. My wife and kids would be dead when she got rear ended by a loaded box truck at 45mph and she was stopped. It totaled a Toyota Sequoia and she and kids didn't have an injury. That's not happening in any model Tesla. I was at the scene. No Tesla would have survived. 100%.

I'm not knocking Teslas but this isn't an argument. It's math and physics. Every Tesla in my scenario above would be toast.

EVs are the perfect globalist vehicle. Just enough range to get you back and forth from your job, not enough range or power to take you on vacation outside of your metro area. If you anger them, they can just cut you off from charging.

PeopleUnited says

My car was paid off in 2012. Gas is the least of your concerns when you are sitting on a depreciating asset. My gas guzzler will still be running in 20 years with minimal maintenance. Not sure I could say the same with an EV that is 40 years old. Plus, in cold climates the EV lose range and power faster than you can say carbon footprint.

Carbon footprint. 😂

socal2 says

But for 90%+ of the US population, the Tesla's totally meet our driving needs without any hassle.

Do 90% of the US population live in houses and not apartments (I actually do not know the stats)? An electric car is great if you have a home where you can install a Level 2 charger. If you live in an apartment with no Level 2 capability, you are limited to charging a Tesla soley at superchargers, which will greatly shorten the battery life. If you buy a Chevy Bolt (which I think is marketed toward apartment dwellers without home Level 2 access) it has circuitry to save the battery at L3 sites by limiting the charge power. That means 1.5 to 2 hours per stop to charge the Bolt on long trips. For around town, the Bolt would need 2 hours to charge for every 230 miles or so.

Blue says

socal2 says

I am saving about $200/month in gas over the last year. I only use the Super Chargers if on a road trip and have to pay for it. I charge at home 98% of the time and it costs me $8 to fill up.

You need those savings to buy your next battery.

Or trade it in every 8 years and don’t have to worry about it. That’s what I would do if I didn’t promise to give my S away once I pick up my Cybertruck

zzyzzx says

Eman says

Very well said DeficitHawk. It’s ironic the folks, who are negative about EV, don’t own an EV.

We have 2 EV’s and no gas car. Wife’s car charges about twice a week at home during off-peak. I get free charge for life and also charge about twice a week. Plug it in, go for a walk or jog, or shopping. Come back and 87-95% charged most of the time.

Most siblings also own 1-2 EV. It works for us. The experience has been great in the last 5+ years.

If you lived in Minnesota would you be just as happy with your EV's?

I wouldn’t know as I have never lived in a cold climate. However, I believe one the the cars would be a hybrid if I lived in a cold climate.

HeadSet says

Do 90% of the US population live in houses and not apartments (I actually do not know the stats)? An electric car is great if you have a home where you can install a Level 2 charger. If you live in an apartment with no Level 2 capability, you are limited to charging a Tesla soley at superchargers, which will greatly shorten the battery life. If you buy a Chevy Bolt (which I think is marketed toward apartment dwellers without home Level 2 access) it has circuitry to save the battery at L3 sites by limiting the charge power. That means 1.5 to 2 hours per stop to charge the Bolt on long trips. For around town, the Bolt would need 2 hours to charge for every 230 miles or so.

You are right - having a place to charge is definitely optimal if you want an EV. Not sure the percent of drivers that have access to home charging - maybe 60%?. I drive over a thousand miles a month and charge the Tesla about 2-3 times a week in my garage overnight.

I leased a Chevy Bolt for 3 years before I got my Tesla. The thing was a fun little hot hatch and perfect for my 50 mile roundtrip work commute, but terrible on road trips. Not only was the Bolt smaller, less comfortable with less storage than the Tesla, it took 3-4X as long to charge on unreliable non-Tesla super chargers. I took the family to Vegas in the Bolt once and it added about 90 minutes to our trip. Never again.

When we took the Tesla to Phoenix last month, we made it in the same amount of time it normally takes us in my wife's ICE car. But I was much more relaxed and rested in the Tesla letting autopilot do most of the driving with a smoother and more comfortable ride. We packed 4 roller bags, 4 backpacks, large cooler and a couple bags of groceries and Christmas presents and still had more room for storage and didn't use the frunk.

I don't know if all states have it, but here in IL we have MFT (motor fuel tax) as a percentage of gas pumped in your tank. They will come after EV's in the future. While they're not huge, they still cause wear and tear on infrastructure. This is an exaggeration, but say 20-30% of the population got EV's. That's a massive blow to that tax, yet there's more cars using the roads and not paying for it.

It's the wild west in that regards. They could easily do an extra EV tax as a line item on your electric bill to where the car is registered, milage tracking or even the creep GPS tracking method. Enjoy it now, but if you have those taxes for ICE vehicles, they're coming for EV's. If they do it as a percentage of electric bill, it could be more expensive to drive than gas as it would be based on whole home electric use. Or they make you install an EV charging meter.

I think EV's are fun to drive, but at some point on per mile basis the government will try to make EV's roughly the equivalent cost of a ICE "fuel" up. It actually could end up being more depending on how your state decides to tax it: https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/blogs/stateline/2022/10/10/as-electric-vehicles-shrink-gas-tax-revenue-more-states-may-tax-mileage

Fact is you cannot use the roads and basically pay little to nothing to use them. There is no bridge fairy, they have to be maintained. Roads don't repave themselves. All cars basically have GPS in them if bought in the last decade including all Teslas. I'd be getting a hybrid with an ICE if I needed to buy today and not full EV. My extra 2¢ novel on the topic. Greenies/Liberals will fight it, but the road building lobby is massively Conservative/Right leaning. We shall see, but methinks this prediction is coming soon to all states. EV's are going to be a case of liberal policies shooting themselves in the foot I think.

WookieMan says

Fact is you cannot use the roads and basically pay little to nothing to use them.

All roads outside of neighborhoods will become toll roads with all cars having a version of the automatic "EasyPass" to trip the charges.

I know the Hipsters will call me a Liar for saying so as they find some convoluted way to explain off their PG&E rate plan how their at home charging doesn't cost them.

Even if they don't have rooftop solar. Maybe even positive cash flow for them to charge their EV if they have rooftop solar, they'll argue. How the solar didn't cost them a thing to install (those are financed even if it's not called "financed"). They are soo smart, soo savvy, sooo Bay Area Silicon Valley Smug smarter and better than all the rest of us podunk folks.

Whatever.

My Prius prime gets 55 mpg in pure gasoline mode. I paid $3.799 this week for gasoline in San Jose. About 7 cents per mile.

According to the website, my Prius Prime will consume 0.25 kw-hr to travel one mile. Paid my PG&E bill last week, average cost was $0.40 per kwhr. This roughs out to 10 cents per mile, about 40% higher cost than gasoline.

And NO, I will not save $ with some kind of other "EV-charging-at-home" plan which sets punitively high rates for when not charging the EV. And this is for a small (sh*tbox) home with modest electricity use (no AC, no electric kitchen appliances, no electric heating, no using the clothes dryer except when it rains). And NO, I WILL NOT upload my PG&E bill to prove it. If you don't believe me, whatever.

We do get free charging at the workplace, which we use as often as we can get a charger (you gotta get up early in the morning to beat the others for that privilege!), but I don't think that factoid is an honest reply to your question.

I wonder about the 25 miles per 100 kw-hr benchmark. Is it true all the time, - like even in the cold weather?

Patrick says

the one on the bottom is cheaper, bigger profits. Seen this too many fucking times. And when you call them out on it, they spasm screaming "this is DIVERSITY you bigots".

B.A.C.A.H. says

My Prius prime gets 55 mpg in pure gasoline mode. I paid $3.799 this week for gasoline in San Jose. About 7 cents per mile.

Hybrids are the way to go. EV's are fun to drive for sure, but subsidies will stop and I don't know why anyone in their right might would pay $50k+ for a sedan or small SUV. Electric rates/charges will go up for EV cars registered to your house. Get a Honda or Toyota sedan and you're $25k in the green out the door. Over the life of an EV, you're not going to get that money back and you'll still need to charge it at your house for sure.

Even with high gas now, it's really not that bad. Both have tires and brakes. Wheel bearings. I've never heard of a modern ICE engine shitting out if you take care of it. Maybe cheap things like an alternator or starter, but it's not complicated with sealed transmission and most part easily making it 200k miles.

B.A.C.A.H. says

My Prius prime gets 55 mpg in pure gasoline mode. I paid $3.799 this week for gasoline in San Jose. About 7 cents per mile.
According to the website, my Prius Prime will consume 0.25 kw-hr to travel one mile. Paid my PG&E bill last week, average cost was $0.40 per kwhr. This roughs out to 10 cents per mile, about 40% higher cost than gasoline.
And NO, I will not save $ with some kind of other "EV-charging-at-home" plan which sets punitively high rates for when not charging the EV.

That was a pretty epic rant; hard to argue with anything you said. I'm afraid to look at my electric bill this month as I'm sure I'll be hitting that $.40 per kwhr (not a net positive solar producer during the winter). Pretty wild that EV-2A rate schedule is $.55 per kwHr PEAK (4-9pm). Yeah, no thanks. The California Dream is over (hello NEM-3 !). Irony is that folks with cheap electric rates ($.15 per kwhr) would do well (or at least better) with an EV.
That said, I'm California poor and may try to cash in on the $4k used EV federal tax credit. Just gotta find a dealer...

B.A.C.A.H. says

My Prius prime gets 55 mpg in pure gasoline mode. I paid $3.799 this week for gasoline in San Jose. About 7 cents per mile.

I don't have solar, but have the EV plan with SDG&E and pay $.14 kwh during super off-peak when I charge overnight. I get about 3.3 - 3.8 miles per kilowatt. So about 4 cents a mile.

Hybrids are great bridge vehicle to transition, but they are way more complex to build and maintain compared to a straight-up BEV. Obviously batteries are still massively expensive, but EV's have way less moving parts and components to wear out. No transmissions, oil changes, brake jobs etc....

Tesla continues to do amazing things driving down the price of batteries and getting more range. Imagine where we will be in another 10 years?

We don't need the government forcing this. EV adoption will happen on its own through market forces as EV's truly become superior in every way.

socal2 says

I don't have solar, but have the EV plan with SDG&E and pay $.14 kwh during super off-peak when I charge overnight. I get about 3.3 - 3.8 miles per kilowatt. So about 4 cents a mile.

Oh my! 81 cents per kwHr peak during the summer.


https://www.sdge.com/residential/pricing-plans/about-our-pricing-plans/electric-vehicle-plans

EBGuy says

Oh my! 81 cents per kwHr peak during the summer.

Thank God I don't have (or need) AC. I would be broke! As it is, I am always chasing after my kids turning off lights during On-Peak times. Ceiling fans running all night is not too bad.

We get the Super Off-Peak rate through 2:00PM on the weekends so we do all of our laundry on the weekends. We run the dishwasher at midnight too.

Since I went with this plan, my consumption went up over 20% but my bill went down a few bucks taking advantage of the lower rates at night.

EBGuy says

socal2 says

Oh my! 81 cents per kwHr peak during the summer.

May god bless you, if there is any ;)