patrick.net

Yet another way to keep asset bubbles inflated and avoid any price correction.

No one wants to take the bitter medicine of letting prices go down to the point people can afford them.

People need the prices to come down. Not creative financing. Sad that our leaders want to keep going the wrong direction.

I feel the same way about stock market and economy and stimulus/rate cuts... It's ok to let some economic pain occur, since that kills off the resource draining malinvestment companies... But instead, every fiscal and monetary decision we make is geared towards blowing the bubbles bigger and never letting natural selection to run it's course.

I would see it as a 'hump' loan, to get people over the economic hump and into the homes until the rest of the economy catches up. If Trump does what he wants with the repatriation of industries and financing of crumbling infrastructures with native labor, there will be jobs out the wazoo and things will get better for the younger generation and those willing and able to work.

So let's say I'm 30 when I buy my first home. 50 year mortgage puts me at 80 if I pay it off per the schedule.

Didn't Japan get 100 year mortgages that were inheritable? How did that work out?

And what of the boomers houses (primary homes, vacation homes, etc?) Ultimately where to they go? To the nursing home? The bank? (Reverse Morgarges) Does Black rock buy them up and convert them to rentals? If the kids inherit them do they live there? sell? convert to STR via Air BNB or similar?

As our parents age (as most of us on this blog are Gen X) what becomes of their real estate holdings will make a significant impact on the affordability or lack thereof, for our kids.

GreaterNYCDude says

Didn't Japan get 100 year mortgages that were inheritable? How did that work out?

They had 50 years, too.

Desperate attempt to keep their housing bubble propped up.

DeficitHawk says

No one wants to take the bitter medicine of letting prices go down to the point people can afford them.

Pretty much everyone with any political power has real estate equity and would rather keep young families locked out than see his or her equity decline.

This is suicidal in the long run. The Roman Empire slowly died in a similar way, as the large majority of people realized there was no longer any reason to support it.

The solution is the single tax on land values, Georgism. No tax on income, sales, or anything else. Just on land values. This will end our systemic speculation on land values.

Patrick says

DeficitHawk says

No one wants to take the bitter medicine of letting prices go down to the point people can afford them.

Pretty much everyone with any political power has real estate equity and would rather keep young families locked out than see his or her equity decline.

This is suicidal in the long run. The Roman Empire slowly died in a similar way, as the large majority of people realized there was no longer any reason to support it.

The solution is the single tax on land values, Georgism. No tax on income, sales, or anything else. Just on land values. This will end our systemic speculation on land values.

Hedge fund guys will pay no taxes. One big reason stocks go up, because gains are barely taxed so it’s better than labor.

Working for money is hard, investing is free money with no work.

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

As long as it won't be under FHA, I'm fine with a private bank offering a private loan like that, with zero government guarantees and the bank and loanee required to sign a no-taxpayer bailout ever clause.

Of course it would be backed by taxpayers. That's why the proposal is coming from Trump. If a bank wanted to do it themselves, they wouldn't need the government involved. Banks won't even do 30 year without government backstop. Banks just pass them through to fannie/freddie.

DeficitHawk says

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

As long as it won't be under FHA, I'm fine with a private bank offering a private loan like that, with zero government guarantees and the bank and loanee required to sign a no-taxpayer bailout ever clause.

Of course it would be backed by taxpayers. That's why the proposal is coming from Trump. If a bank wanted to do it themselves, they wouldn't need the government involved. Banks won't even do 30 year without government backstop. Banks just pass them through to fannie/freddie.

Agreed, and that's why it's a shitty proposal. However as you mentioned 30 year is already backstopped, so it's not a novelty

Just in case, if anybody thinks 20% or even 15% down is still normal:

https://www.fha.com/fha_article?id=2778

All we need to do is go Back to what worked for 50 years until the late 90s/early 2000s.

DeficitHawk says

Of course it would be backed by taxpayers. That's why the proposal is coming from Trump. If a bank wanted to do it themselves, they wouldn't need the government involved. Banks won't even do 30 year without government backstop. Banks just pass them through to fannie/freddie.

I know. I mention it because some are saying "Why take away bank freedom to loan money?" When the banks want the government to insure and help push these loans.

Looks like the 15 yr car loan is real, too:

You also have the option to cash out re-fi your vehicle loan every year or so. The lender doesn't really care if you go negative equity, they will simply raise the rate to 29.9%.

While they're at it why not 40 year terms for student loans? You work for 40 years .. why not spread out the cost of your schooling over the life of your career? And because your earnings are lower earlier in your career, mak the first year interest only to keep the payment manageable? /s

(And yes I realize that in many ways this is already done.)

All of this is interconnected. The debt loads. The lower birth rates. The slow decline of what was once a robust middle class. Even women in the workplace. My goal in life has been that my wife works because she WANTS to not that she HAS to to provide for the family. Knock on wood, excepting a couple of brief stints being out of work, I've been able to do just that. But 20 years ago most of us were here talking about the high cost of housing and how it was nonsensical and could not continue. Yes the bubble burst in '08 but here we are almost 18 years later. And not a damn thing has changed. If anything it's gotten worse.

Let's not forget that the 30 year mortgage combined with our demographics is a huge advantage vs. the rest of the developed world. Try going to Europe and buying a house - you'll quickly appreciate how easy the U.S. makes it. In my limited exposure to European friends and peers, the most likely path to home ownership involves inheritance.

The availability of financing is a major driver of our domestic economy. Not just New homes, which are just a sliver of the housing market. Existing home purchases result in ton's of money spent at Home Depot and Lowes. I remember being shocked after buying my first home what a money pit it was. I was young and had only rented and just assumed my only expense would be mortgage and utilities. Boy was I wrong.

Also, haven't 50 year mortgages been available in California for like decades now?

To my mind, anything that ties people to a fixed asset is a good thing. It makes responsible citizens out of us. A country where everyone has something to lose is a country where people follow the rules.

As my Dad used to say - "don't mess with a loser - they have nothing to lose".

@stfu - government backstopping mortgages only raises prices as it prints money for banks and passed costs to taxpayers. Our shitty government did that with healthcare costs, college costs and housing. Everything they do is to balloon prices. We aren’t capitalism, but a one giant balloon economy, completely fake economy. People can’t afford things in a “greatest economy ever” because economy is based on making things out of reach,

Is Donnie T. implementing "you'll own nothing and be happy" program? 🤡

https://x.com/JoshuaSteinman/status/1988260949112091037



I still support Trump, but he should do all these things.

And should release the Epstein files.

RWSGFY says

Is Donnie T. implementing "you'll own nothing and be happy" program? 🤡

Yes

I voted for Republicans because of Trump, I wouldn't have if someone else was the Presidential candidate...I would have just not voted. If he doesn't substantially change H-1B program, I am done with voting.

stfu says

Also, haven't 50 year mortgages been available in California for like decades now?

I live in California and have had a few mortgages here. I've never been offered a 50 year option from any lender I've worked with. Never heard of anyone who has.

Maybe they exist from some niche lender, but they'd be non conforming and probably significantly higher interest rate.

I have a 15 year mortgage anyway, I'd have no interest in a 50 year unless it was crazy low interest.

DeficitHawk says

, I'd have no interest in a 50 year unless it was crazy low interest.

Anything but this would be insane.

Looks like this meme has aged very well...

And now, a less retarded idea.



I think Trump did his usual: Wild idea, get everybody talking about lifetime debt, then pivoting to a real idea. Now everybody who screamed about 50-year mortgages is fucked trying to explain why transferring a mortgage is a bad idea.

Anyone know who is advising Trump on this? 50 yr mortgages, 15 yr car loans, clueless comments on H1B yesterday. What’s going on?

The easiest ways to cement loyalty from the young people, men mostly, who broke in record numbers for Trump:
-boot needless H1Bs and prosecute ethnic nepotism in tech hiring (Indian mostly)
-keep US universities for US students (10% cap on foreign enrollment)
-remove private equity groups from residential real estate (as was law with Glass-Steagall)
-remove ethnic job networks at the low end, especially in landscaping and construction, and prosecute ethnic nepotism (Hispanic)
-end critical race theory, DEI, and disparate impact
-seal the borders and repatriate illegal immigrants

He’s done the last two, but seems oblivious about private equity’s role in inflating house prices. Also unaware or unconcerned about 75% of Bay Area tech being Indian. I can’t think of a group with more divergence in IQ than Indians — some brilliant, but most - chatty dullards. No one needs more to build up cutting edge tech (see the stagnation of adobe, Microsoft, NetApp, etc, since nepotism networks took over — no innovation, just milking existing technology and selling subscription models).

He imposed the $100k H1B fee, paid by the employer.

Now the calculus, especially for companies looking to staff for a 1-2 year project, isn't so cut and dried.

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

He imposed the $100k H1B fee, paid by the employer.

Now the calculus, especially for companies looking to staff for a 1-2 year project, isn't so cut and dried.

Is that for existing H1Bs, or just new hires? (I’ve read it applied to 2026 hires only, and the 100k might not apply from 2027 onward.)

goofus says

Is that for existing H1Bs, or just new hires? (I’ve read it applied to 2026 hires only, and the 100k might not apply from 2027 onward.)

New hires.

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

And now, a less retarded idea.



I think Trump did his usual: Wild idea, get everybody talking about lifetime debt, then pivoting to a real idea. Now everybody who screamed about 50-year mortgages is fucked trying to explain why transferring a mortgage is a bad idea.

I assume you'd have to stay with the same lender, requalify and the banks would probably need to raise new loan rates. So you're second mortgage(?) to cover any additional loan amount would be at a higher rate. High enough for the bank to recover what they would have made it they had done an entirely new loan. The quants will figure out how to work it so they don't lose any $$.

Trump never mentioned 15 year car loans.

Glock-n-Load says

Trump never mentioned 15 year car loans.

WH did.

https://patrick.net/comment?comment_id=2222512

https://wolfstreet.com/2025/11/11/a-50-year-mortgage-does-nothing-for-affordability-is-a-terrible-deal-for-homeowners-and-a-superb-deal-for-banks-investors/

How does the government push 15-year car loan? Cars loans are not government backed, unlike house mortgages.

Why would anyone want a long-term loan on a seriously depreciating asset?

Just imagine the "demand forward" fiasco. Tons of cars sold to the irresponsible masses when the 15-year loan becomes available, then sluggish sales for the next decade.

HeadSet says

How does the government push 15-year car loan? Cars loans are not government backed, unlike house mortgages.

You just answered your own question.

HeadSet says

Why would anyone want a long-term loan on a seriously depreciating asset?

The same ppl who have 5 year loans for seriously depreciating assets.

HeadSet says

Just imagine the "demand forward" fiasco. Tons of cars sold to the irresponsible masses when the 15-year loan becomes available, then sluggish sales for the next decade.

0h before that the repo rate will go through the roof. Used car market will be flooded even more.