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What if we are hitting bottom?


               
2009 Sep 14, 11:35am   24,999 views  128 comments

by EastCoastBubbleBoy   follow (2)  

I keep coming back to the idea that maybe the housing market is bottoming out. Granted it depends on where you live, but I'm starting to think that on a national scale, the bottom may be far closer than we'd care to admit to. I'm going to dig up some data, and I will post it a bit later.

OK... I took 10 Random Zip Codes, ball-parked the current house values (using Zillow) and then compared it with historic data (via the 1999 US census. and the 2007 ASC community survey). I have incomplete income data for 2007, but am working on getting it. For now, I have adjusted 1999 census data to approximate 2007 income until better data can be found.

The results of this unscientific back of the envelope analysis is this:

In 1999 90% of these random zip codes were "affordable";that is the Median Price / Median HH Income. Now, 50% are "affordable" not great, but certainly not as bad as I had expected. Even in my own area, prices have come down somewhat.

#housing

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127   bob2356   @   2009 Dec 28, 11:16pm  

thomas.wong89 says

bob2356 says

The majority of it is now invested in tanks, planes, submarines, military bases all over the world, and the deserts of Afghanistan and Iraq.

Are you saying SS was in the black before the year 2000 ? or manybe pissed away by Congress on social programs before 911 ?

SS and medicare are still in the black and still paying part of the deficit. Congress just writes an IOU to SS/medicare every year and spends the money. Over 60% of the budget (without adding in SS/Medicare as they are funded separately) is military (if everything was accounted for properly), so over 60% of the pissing away is military. Pop quiz, what percentage of the federal budget,, is "social programs". Hint, interest on the debt is half of what's left over after defense.

128   EastCoastBubbleBoy   @   2009 Dec 29, 10:35am  

Back to the original point, the latest Case-Shiller Numbers (released today, from October, 2009) idicate that :

All in all, this report should be described as flat.” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s.

Case Shiller Index

Press Release

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