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Housing Bubble Pre-Flight Checklist


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2006 Apr 10, 7:44am   29,381 views  313 comments

by HARM   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

1. Congress enacts/President signs new Tax Code into law (1997) subsidizing real estate speculation? Check.

2. Cabal of arrogant Fed bankers/Washington politicians/Brokerage firms ignore (or actively encourage) massive Dot.com stock bubble? Check.

3. Aforementioned stock bubble imploding in Fed's/Pol's faces (2000)? Check.

4. Extreme Fed/Pol fear of damage to the rest of the economy by ruptured stock bubble and willingness to flood economy with ultra-cheap credit (to inflate new bubble)? Check.

5. Massive GSEs market intervention, allowing private mortgage lenders to shift default risk from themselves onto taxpayers, FCBs & institutional investors (using the magic of MBS/CMOs)? Check

6. Complete erosion of lending standards, thanks to Fed's easy credit + GSE's MBS/CMO mortgage risk transfer? Check.

7. Cabal of arrogant Realt-whores enforcing monopoly MLS, gaming the numbers and lobbying for federal protection? Check.

8. Public's unshakable faith in the impregnability of real estate ("it never goes down")? Check.

9. Public's complete lack of historical memory, understanding of credit bubbles, the Fed/GSEs, business cycles, etc.? Check.

10. China/Japan underwriting much of our toxic MBS/CMO debt, while secretly hoping we fall on our asses? Check.

11. International carry-trade spawning RE bubbles all over the globe, thanks to ultra-cheap $USD ? Check.

HOUSING BUBBLE, YOU ARE CLEARED FOR TAXI

Discuss, enjoy...
HARM

#housing

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76   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 3:30pm  

The concept of depth and a higher power would certainly help.

Absolutely. Never let a teenager believe that he is invincible. I am not ver religious but I have to say that understaning the concept of a higher being is essential.

77   astrid   2006 Apr 10, 3:30pm  

Linda,

Yeah, religion might help. But what happens if I'm atheist. And I am.

78   OO   2006 Apr 10, 3:31pm  

Japanese mafia (yakuza) all ride on white, Mercedez S class. Remember, white, S class, if you run into one of those in Japan, bow and keep low.

79   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 3:32pm  

I disagree on religion unless it’s taught as religious theory, ethics and culture, not as dogma.

Of course. Students should be presented with various religious concepts. I am not against preaching but religion should not be forced upon the people.

I’d rather see more of a philosophy of ethics taught from all perspectives which would include religious perspectives, but also include non-religious perspectives.

It is a good idea too. I agree.

80   astrid   2006 Apr 10, 3:35pm  

hate to rent,

I tried to help you (with my earlier post), but the only near helpful thing that solicited was Different Sean's declaration that he was good looking and got an offer from a rich woman once.

81   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 3:35pm  

Japanese mafia (yakuza) all ride on white, Mercedez S class. Remember, white, S class, if you run into one of those in Japan, bow and keep low.

I heard that white Audi A8 is very popular amongst neo-nazis. Any truth?

82   astrid   2006 Apr 10, 3:35pm  

hate to rent,

I hope this isn't too nosy, but what part of Asia does your family come from?

83   OO   2006 Apr 10, 3:36pm  

Why can't we have the good ole girl's school boy's school and school uniform? I went to a boy's school all the way including boarding school, it was a great experience, you don't get distracted too early this way. I didn't go on my first date until college, and never had a problem getting a date ever since. Of course you thought about girls 3 times an hour, but they weren't available on campus or dorm so you just needed to channel your extra energy into something more productive.

High school dating is overrated.

84   astrid   2006 Apr 10, 3:36pm  

Owneroccupier,

You're a gem of information about East Asia!

85   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 3:38pm  

Yeah, religion might help. But what happens if I’m atheist. And I am.

Atheism has a place in many religions. Buddhism is one of them.

86   astrid   2006 Apr 10, 3:38pm  

I went to a high school with a 4:1 female to male ratio (yeah, you guys totally got screwed) and most girls never dated.

87   astrid   2006 Apr 10, 3:40pm  

Peter P,

Took a Buddhism class in college. Got so sick of the logical inconsistency of the theory that I dropped out midway.

88   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 3:41pm  

Why can’t we have the good ole girl’s school boy’s school and school uniform?

Exactly. However, dating cannot be stopped. Willing participants will still find a way... after school. What needs to be taught is responsibility.

89   astrid   2006 Apr 10, 3:42pm  

hate to rent,

Can't give you any advice about Vietnamese dating scene. I had a pretty good friend who is Vietnamese, but she's not what you'd call a looker.

90   OO   2006 Apr 10, 3:42pm  

Well, I went to a Catholic boy's school all the way till college. You do your bible studies and the school pretty much leaves you alone on everything else. Many classmates of mine, myself included, came out atheist. It is just a disciplinary thing, there are very strict codes of behavior, and in a way, necessary for kids.

However, the unintended side-effect is, some of my classmates became gay, not that there is anything wrong with it.

91   astrid   2006 Apr 10, 3:42pm  

Peter P,

If I have kids I will either home school them or pack them off to boarding school when they turn 12.

92   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 3:44pm  

Got so sick of the logical inconsistency of the theory that I dropped out midway.

I used to hate eastern philosophy because of the apparent logical inconsistency. My wife (then girlfriend) called me Spock and my college roommate called me Data. Now, I look at things rather differently. :)

93   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 3:45pm  

If I have kids I will either home school them or pack them off to boarding school when they turn 12.

Neither is cheap.

However, the unintended side-effect is, some of my classmates became gay, not that there is anything wrong with it.

Huh?

94   astrid   2006 Apr 10, 3:47pm  

"Neither is cheap."

I know, that's why I probably won't have kids.

95   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 3:48pm  

I find that atheist are the type of people that are more likely do do the work of god. they are humanist.

True. Open-minded atheists with the sense of morality will serve humanity very well. Dogmatic atheists may not do much good.

96   OO   2006 Apr 10, 3:48pm  

Don't send your kid to boarding school too early. It is an entirely different beast from the usual school system.

Boarding school is like a mafia organization. The seniors bully the juniors, and since you live together in the same dorm (more beds per room compared to college), you end up being bullied 24 x7 until you become a senior yourself. Some boys may not take it so well and it may leave a scar with them in the future. Also, there is no privacy at all, not much space for self-development, because everyone spies on everyone. If you get along with your dorm mates, they will be your best friends ever throughout your life. If you don't get along with them, that will make your life a living hell.

97   astrid   2006 Apr 10, 3:49pm  

I never got interested enough in Western religion to study it directly. However, I still manage to know more Catholic lore than my Catholic boyfriend.

98   OO   2006 Apr 10, 3:51pm  

hate to rent,

that's what the gay propaganda tells you. NO!

One can turn gay if put in a certain type of environment. I have quite a few Catholic gay friends, and I can tell you it is NOT entirely genetic.

99   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 3:52pm  

really, i find that both eastern an d western philosophy are equally inconsistency.

I used to be fascinated with the philosophy of logic. I have to say that the methodologies of contemporary western philosophy tend to be logically consistent.

But logic is not everything.

100   astrid   2006 Apr 10, 3:52pm  

Owneroccupier,

Thanks for the advice, I'll keep that in mind when and if my kids get to that age. I know a few people who went to pretty good boarding school and they seem to be okay (okay, one is bat shit crazy, but I think that's her and not her boarding school's doing).

101   OO   2006 Apr 10, 3:54pm  

astrid,

I am talking about boys-only or girls-only boarding school, never went through a co-ed, so the co-ed situation may be entirely different. Also, the British system is a tad bit different from the American one.

102   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 3:54pm  

you can not teach someone to be gay, it is genetic….

Not necessarily genetic, buy innate.

One can turn gay if put in a certain type of environment. I have quite a few Catholic gay friends, and I can tell you it is NOT entirely genetic.

It is all in the stars.

103   OO   2006 Apr 10, 3:58pm  

There is a gay phase in adolescnce for all guys, most of us grow past that, some of us get stuck there. Sexual orientation is not entirely a natural-born thing, it is also influenced strongly by your early sexual experience and sexual partner.

A boy's school is more conducive to homosexual experience for boys who are eager to explore their bodies, let me just leave it at that.

104   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 4:00pm  

I remember one professor say, with philosophy, you can justify anything and everything, it can be dangerous..

Did you mean statistics? :)

105   astrid   2006 Apr 10, 4:01pm  

"A boy’s school is more conducive to homosexual experience for boys who are eager to explore their bodies, let me just leave it at that."

Hee, anyone here seen "Another Country"? Right or wrong, that's what I think of when I think of the British public school system.

106   astrid   2006 Apr 10, 4:04pm  

(Then again, I also think of A Taxing Woman's Return when I think of the Japanese Yakuza, and I don't recall any white S500s in that movie)

107   Randy H   2006 Apr 10, 4:06pm  

True. Open-minded atheists with the sense of morality will serve humanity very well. Dogmatic atheists may not do much good.

I proffer that dogmatic any-ists do not do much good, yes even including "humanists". I encounter lots of dogmatic humanist types up here in Marin. They are so dogmatic about their humanism that they seem to forget the "human" part of that ism.

108   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 4:06pm  

(Then again, I also think of A Taxing Woman’s Return when I think of the Japanese Yakuza, and I don’t recall any white S500s in that movie)

That movie was set in 1989. There was no S500 back then, only 500SEL. :)

109   Randy H   2006 Apr 10, 4:08pm  

Did you mean statistics?

I had a math professor in undergrad who insisted that statistics was nothing more than black magic.

110   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 4:09pm  

but you can disprove on set of statistic with another.

All I know is that statistics a pretty good propaganda (spinning) device.

111   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 4:10pm  

I had a math professor in undergrad who insisted that statistics was nothing more than black magic.

I have to agree. Statistics is not really math.

112   astrid   2006 Apr 10, 4:11pm  

Come on, stop being so cynical, you all don't really believe that, do you? As long as you understand what has been done to the numbers, you should know if the calculation is good or bad. (as a none math person, I really can't tell)

113   Randy H   2006 Apr 10, 4:11pm  

Statistics are not to be confused with probabilities, even though intro stats courses necessarily cover probabilities first.

Probabilities are mathematically consistent and abide by proofs and theorems.

Statistics are descriptive means by which we "disprove the null hypothesis". That is, we can't prove anything with stats, only disprove a default assumption.

Stats really may be a kind of evil.

114   Unalloyed   2006 Apr 10, 4:12pm  

A Realtorâ„¢ and his girlfriend are spending their first night together. He takes off his shoes and socks. His girlfriend points at his feet and asks "what happened to your feet?" He shrugs and says, "When I was a kid I had toelio." She asks "You mean polio?" He replies, "No, I had toelio." Then he takes off his slacks and she makes a face. "What's wrong with your knees?" He shrugs and answers, "When I was a teenager I had kneezles." She says "You mean measles?" He replies, "No, I had kneezles." Finally he slides off his briefs and is nude from the waist down. His girlfriend is horrified. She wails "Oh no, you had smallcocks too!

115   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 4:14pm  

Probabilities are mathematically consistent and abide by proofs and theorems.

Only if the underlying randomness can be ascertained.

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