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What's the Ideal Ending to the Housing Bubble?


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2006 Apr 8, 6:52am   24,315 views  196 comments

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You write the script. If you could imagine an ending to the housing bubble that would meet all your expectations, what would it be?

You can be creative or not-- your choice.

Also-- what would happen to salaries in the ideal bubble burst? Would the salaries rise to meet the cost of housing, or would housing crash so hard that it wouldn't matter?

#housing

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158   edvard   2006 Apr 10, 6:43am  

Joe,
To me I don't think there are many things, both nice or crappy that are built well enough for my tastes. For example, the table fan in my kitchen is from the 30's. It has a base made of cast iron. The motor has replaceable brushes and bearings. The cord is heavy duty, the knob is bakelite, and it still works like new. Cost to me: $5 at a yard sale. My car, a 1955 Mercury has 340k on the speedometer, has a gigantic V8 that makes it accelerate like a bat out of hell, and I can fix anything on it in less than 30 minutes and 50 bucks. It's now 51 years old and I recently restored it, so perhaps it'll go another 50.I can guarantee that this car gets way, way more attention and smiles than any 70k Bimmer. All the furniture I own is from the turn of the century, picked up off the street, flea markets, and so forth. Most of the stuff I see- even the expensive stuff, like a $400 coffee looks like crap to me. It won't be around in 10 years either.
But.. I'll stop and be dead honest. If someone walked over and gave me a few mil, would I buy that Cadillac STS sedan with the nice 400HP turbo charged engine, bose stereo system, magnetically controlled suspension system? Probably.
I'm in emergency saving mode as we speak. I could easily buy a fully loaded toyota truck with all the trimmins', or buy some really nice clothes. I could also probably really stretch for a 6 month world tour. But I don't because I'm a married guy caught in the middle of a dilemena where the future isn't looking that great due to our inability to afford basic ameneties like housing. If things were better, I might indulge in some of those nice things.

159   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 6:49am  

Besides I’ve been to expensive restaurants (mostly because my parents like those places, so when they come visit SF they go out alot), and most are disappointing, including Gary Danko’s — I don’t know how you guys can rave on about that one so much.

I have yet to try Gary Danko's. What is wrong with it?

Simple foods are also soul-feeders. A perfect tomato with some crunchy Malden salt sprinkled on top? A bowl of ripe raspberries? A tart, crisp apple and a wedge of sharp cheddar cheese? Perfect guacamole? A boiled lobster, some corn and boiled potatoes and melted butter (leave the white bits in the butter, please!)?

Yum! Boiled lobster. I now crave a 3-pound Maine lobster.

160   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 6:54am  

I’m not a fan of Gary Danko’s - Chez Panisse still does it best in my book. It is true, however, that there’s a distinct foodie-cultism in the BA that doesn’t exist in most other places.

My global favorite is currently Kaygetsu in Menlo Park. Their Japanese cuisine is very well executed. Their sashimi is fresh and flavorful.

After 7 courses you will still be refreshed.

161   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 6:59am  

A boiled lobster, some corn and boiled potatoes and melted butter (leave the white bits in the butter, please!)?

Butter? Somehow I do not usually like too much butter. If I want a heart-healthy mean I go for olive oil. If not I want lard!

Lard tastes so good. :)

162   skibum   2006 Apr 10, 7:01am  

Peter P,
I haven't been there - definitely will give it a look-see. That's the one in Sharon Park, eh? I've heard really good things about it. I can actually go there for lunch from work with a 5min drive, if I can ever find the time.

163   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 7:07am  

I haven’t been there - definitely will give it a look-see. That’s the one in Sharon Park, eh? I’ve heard really good things about it. I can actually go there for lunch from work with a 5min drive, if I can ever find the time.

They have very good lunch deals.

I recommend the eel rice bowl. Their unagi is very nice. If you like sushi, they have a set lunch with 10 pieces of nigiri at 25%+ discount over dinner price.

Please don't tell too many people. I do not want to have to make reservations too far in advance.

164   edvard   2006 Apr 10, 7:09am  

SFwoman,
I've lived in Boston, NY, TN, CA, and been to Europe, Mexico, Ireland, plus I have driven across the country. Twice. I'm well aware of what exsists around me.Probably more so than many of my California contemporaries. Perhaps that's what gives me a diffrent perspective on life.I've lived in more places than just the coasts. I've lived in the middle, out there, and in big cities, small towns, big suburbs and college campuses.I've experienced people who hate anything new, and people who hate anything old. I've met people with political viewpoints that differ from my own. I have blended into the areas that I've lived in. I've experienced the social variety of the country and feel sorry for those that haven't. That's why I scoff a lot around here at the thought that people are so willing to spend so much money to live here because they haven't seen what other possibilities abound outside the borders of the state.
I don't claim to believe that TN is better than CA,Nor CA better than anywhere else.I might stay, I might move, I might go to any number of other states. On the same token, time, money, economics, and our own upbringing bear into the decisions we make, and CA for the time period is rather hostile to younger folks.If TN were also expensive, then I would make the same conclusion and look elsewhere besides TN.
Perhaps there are things about the Bay Area and CA that I have yet to realize that would make me feel that the ridiculous expense is worth it, but I have yet to come to that conclusion.

165   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 7:12am  

Perhaps there are things about the Bay Area and CA that I have yet to realize that would make me feel that the ridiculous expense is worth it, but I have yet to come to that conclusion.

Mostly food and weather. Las Vegas has good food but weather sucks. Seattle should have good food and weather (I do not mind overcast and rain). I may take a look there.

166   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 7:13am  

As a country girl, although I know from previous threads you do not like sweets, lard makes the best pie crust.

Lard is truly amazing. You can even use it to cook veggies.

167   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 7:18am  

I can actually go there for lunch from work with a 5min drive, if I can ever find the time.

Lunch is rather quick there (less than 40 minutes) at around 11:30. If you order sushi when they are busy (after 12:30) there can be big delays.

168   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 7:19am  

Perhaps a volume of Peter P’s food memoirs would sell well.

Perhaps I should do just that. :) Too bad my cooking is horrible.

169   skibum   2006 Apr 10, 7:21am  

Peter P,
I don't like unagi, but love all forms of raw seafood - I'm a sucker for really good uni or scallop. RE: Lard, as an MD, I really shouldn't recommend it (I have to reveal, in fact, that I am a cardiologist, no less), but damn, lard tastes good! Take everything in moderation, though, and you should generally be fine.

170   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 7:25am  

I don’t like unagi, but love all forms of raw seafood - I’m a sucker for really good uni or scallop.

Sorry, but I guess you will have to relocate to Hokkaido then. :)

Nevertheless, their uni and hotate are pretty good. I love raw seafood too, especially raw shellfishes, except oysters.

171   edvard   2006 Apr 10, 7:29am  

Amazed,
Ya, I vent here, and that's probably not very pleasant for the people on the blog. I guess we actually do have ot pretty good. We had some friends come down from Seattle this weekend. The job situation isn't that great up there, and they were living in a not so great condo complex. All weekend they told us how great our rental house was, and in retrospect, it is. We have a yard, garage, lemon and orange trees, and a safe neighborhood. That and we don't pay much to live there. Heck- one of the housemates is leaving, but the cost is still less than if we got out own place, so we suddenly have 2 extra rooms.. to do whatver we want with. After they left I did think... Gee, we're pretty well off compared to a LOT of people we know, and they all rent too. I sometimes think we're better off than some who bought.
Anyhow, sorry for all the venting.I'll try harder to keep it under control.

172   skibum   2006 Apr 10, 7:31am  

Peter P,
Why not oysters? You probably don't like Zuni's then? On the other hand, how about BBQ'ed oysters with Everett and Jones sauce on them - mmmm

173   HARM   2006 Apr 10, 7:32am  

After this extreme recession/depression begins to unfold in the coming months and we suffer through a time of poverty, we will begin the healing process. How the US emerges from this may be drastically different from how it is today. And in my opinion, change isn’t always a bad thing. In fact, I’m looking forward to it, and just about none of my reasons include money.

I'll second (or third?) that. I've seen a lot of gloom-and-doom in this thread about how awful it would be if the Fed were to "allow" the market to self-correct, resulting in much lower RE prices. And yet this kind of large-scale, "paradigm shift" away from the Debt=Wealth model is exactly what thic country needs, IMO.

Frankly I question whether or not RE price collapse in the bubbliest markets would even be that bad extreme for mosts states (many of which are not experiencing a bubble). And why would a return to sensible lending/home prices be so "awful"?

Awful for WHOM exactly?
--The specuvestor/flippers who incited the bidding wars and priced working class families out of the market here?
--The sub-prime mortgage lenders who provided the no-doc toxic credit to the specuvestors, enabling them to start bidding wars?
--The GSEs and FCBs who assumed most of the default risk for sub-prime mortgage lenders, so they could extend unlimited credit to any flipper with a pulse?
--The daytraders-turned-Realt-whores?

Why should I feel any pity for these groups whatsoever? The only group I do feel sympathy for are the honest decent working class people who --through no fault of their own-- got hoodwinked into this massive shell game out of ignorance of market economics. They just listened to the MSM and self-appointed industry "experts" and sadly are going to get f@cked along with the flippers.

But even the fact that the innocent will suffer along with the guilty is no reason not to let the bubble implode under it's own weight. The consequences of trying to "soften" the crash will only prolong the pain for many, while continuing to allow the massive mis-allocation of capital to continue. The faster and harder the crash, the quicker the return to market sanity and the better for all concerned.

174   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 7:38am  

Why not oysters? You probably don’t like Zuni’s then? On the other hand, how about BBQ’ed oysters with Everett and Jones sauce on them - mmmm

Somehow I do not like the taste, smell, and texture of an oyster. BBQ seafood sounds good! I want mine with mayo.

175   skibum   2006 Apr 10, 7:42am  

nomad, newsfreak,
I read somewhere (the Chronic-le?) about this website:

http://www.fallenfruit.org/

It maps public parks, etc that have fruit trees that people have found with edible fruit. You can just use the map to find free produce. Someone needs to do this for the BA!

176   requiem   2006 Apr 10, 7:42am  

I agree with the "get it over with quickly" sentiment. And while I hope that many of the "honest decent working class people" learn from the experience, I suspect that's too much to hope for. And this is why:

A *huge* proportion of people cannot make *correct and accurate*
generalisations of principles. They have to learn everything as if
it's an unrelated piece of crap, BECAUSE THEY ARE STUPID! PEOPLE ARE
STUPID! -- Thorfinn

Before anyone jumps on me for attacking working class people, let me say that I think the above applies to all classes. I personally take the "specialization is for insects" attitude.

// Just hoping that the damage is mostly contained to the truly deserving.

177   skibum   2006 Apr 10, 7:43am  

Peter P Says:

BBQ seafood sounds good! I want mine with mayo.

Have you been to Kirala in Berkeley? They have a robata bar, and they have these baby lobster tails grilled with some kind of mayo topping - so good!

178   skibum   2006 Apr 10, 7:47am  

Completely OT,
But did anyone else see this headline on CNN.com and bust a gut?

http://money.cnn.com/2006/04/09/news/economy/oil_gasprices/index.htm

"Bracing for Summer Gas Pains"

Ouch - get out the Beano!

179   HARM   2006 Apr 10, 7:48am  

New thread: Housing Bubble Pre-Flight Checklist

180   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 7:52am  

Karmic Bubble Correction

I am going to consult my astrologer.

181   Joe Schmoe   2006 Apr 10, 7:54am  

HARM-

Hear, hear.

I am in an exceptionally foul mood today, so I will say something extremely mean-spirited: I don't even feel that sorry for the blue collar homeowners.

Sure, they are financially unsophisticated. Sure, they were getting a lot of bad advice from older friends and relatives ("real estate always goes up," "I couldn't afford to buy my own house," blah, blah, blah.)

They don't know who Ben Bernake is, what the LIBOR rate is, or whether their ARM will adjust.

But each and every one of them knows that $600,000 is A LOT OF MONEY. More than they can afford. And when someone offers to lend them that much, they all know that something smells fishy. But they are holding their noses and signing on the dotted line anyway.

They also know that debt=bad.

Everyone has heard of the concept of a 20% down payment. And ain't none of them putting down no 20%.

Interestingly, the people I feel a little bit sorry for are the 20-somethings and the FOB immigrants. These people have very little experience with the US economy. Heck, you tell a kid in his early 20's that he can afford a $450,000 condo, and he'll probably believe you. Same goes for the FOB immigrants.

But your average Joe Sixpack buying a $400k tract home in Ontario, and then "cashing out" some equity to get a new Tahoe and a flat screen TV -- these people are just stupid.

I hope they all suffer.

182   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 7:57am  

I hope they all suffer.

Why hurt your karma by wishing harm on other people? What needs to happen will happen.

183   HARM   2006 Apr 10, 8:08am  

I do, however, avoid hydrogenated fats and high fructose corn syrup and I’ve never smoked. But you’ll have to pry that butter out of my cold, dead hands.

@SFWoman,
You are absolutely 100% dead-on correct. If everyone followed this tiny piece of advice, there would be no obesity/diabetes epidemic here.

184   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 8:10am  

But you’ll have to pry that butter out of my cold, dead hands.

I like flavored (e.g. herb, anchovy) butter.

High fructose corn syrup? It is something we should uninvent.

185   HARM   2006 Apr 10, 8:17am  

@newsfreak,

"Karmic Bubble Correction" has been added to the Housing Bubble Glossary

186   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 9:24am  

It’s nasty and should be avoided.

Although I love food, I do not drink sofa or consume much processed food. Perhaps this is why I am still under 200. :)

187   HARM   2006 Apr 10, 9:58am  

Skibum,
Thanks for the "Fallen Fruit" link. Given the price of fresh avocadoes & lemons, I may be going "shopping" this weekend.

188   astrid   2006 Apr 10, 10:41am  

HARM,

I think you live pretty close to the Claremont Colleges. I highly recommend the fruits there, particularly Pitzer's citrus grove. Pitzer's experimental garden is also open to public grazers, the kumquats are very good.

Afterwards, you can pick a bouquet of flowers for your wife. Scripps has a beautiful patch of birds of paradise as well as a rose garden. They should both be in full bloom right now. There's a free picking policy in effect.

189   HARM   2006 Apr 10, 10:52am  

Astrid,

Thanks for the info. I actually went to one of the Claremont Colleges as an undergrad (won't say which one --can't give too much away ;-) ), so I know exactly what you're talking about.

190   astrid   2006 Apr 10, 10:57am  

HARM,

I would tell you an even better source of free food, but that would totally give away my identity. :P

191   frank649   2006 Apr 10, 1:13pm  

Randy,

From Merriam-Webster Online

inflation (noun): an increase in the volume of money and credit relative to available goods and services resulting in a continuing rise in the general price level .

From Webster Online

inflation (noun): A general and progressive increase in prices.

If dictionaries can't agree on a definition of inflation, I can't expect we will. The first definition is the classical definition of inflation and simply means that the money supply is growing. This is what many people refer to as "monetary inflation" to distinguish it from "price inflation". Let's not dwindle on the definition of "inflation" and instead refer to "monetary inflation" and "price inflation" to describe these two obviously different phenomenon.

Once we're past the semantics, there are some unanswered questions I posed to you that I’d like to get back to.

192   Zephyr   2006 Apr 10, 1:47pm  

All inflation is monetary.

193   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 4:04pm  

I would tell you an even better source of free food, but that would totally give away my identity.

Join Google, another source of free-food. Wait, I mean you will not need free food. :)

194   astrid   2006 Apr 10, 4:06pm  

Well, I'll put it in terms HARM might understand. :) I made a mean cheese tray when I was in college.

195   Randy H   2006 Apr 10, 4:26pm  

Zephyr,

That was my stance, but frank has pointed out (correctly) that this is semantic in our debate (on fiat money), so we can move past it. You and I obviously subscribe to neoclassical economic theory, at least insofar as the quantity theory of money.

Frank,

We can continue the fiat money debate if you wish, or we can pick it up when a more econ-focused thread comes up sometime soon. If none are posted by other authors I'll probably start one myself within a week.

196   frank649   2006 Apr 11, 10:17am  

"I’ll probably start one myself within a week."

Cool. thx.

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