patrick.net

Also from the link:

It's still to early to draw conclusions

In other words, there were always warning signs that the first weeks of data wouldn’t be representative of tax refund sizes this year. The National Taxpayers Union Foundation warned as much just a week ago, but others did as well — Morgan Stanley, for instance, is predicting that refunds will be 26 percent higher this year.

And here’s the thing: We still don’t have enough data to draw conclusions! Last week, average refunds were cumulatively down 17 percent. Two weeks ago, they were down 9 percent. The average refund could go up further or back down next week, as data naturally fluctuates. These numbers won’t be clear until filing season ends.

What to believe ?

An opinion piece penned by the right leaning National Taxpayers Union citing data by the left leaning Tax Policy Center twisted together to support the Great Tax Heist.

National Taxpayers Union - National Taxpayers Union (NTU) is closely related to their "501(c)(3)" (i.e. non-profit) foundation, the National Taxpayers Union Foundation (NTUF). According to the 990 forms of NTUF, the NTU and NTUF share staff, facilities, web site and board members. NTUF is an "associate" member of the State Policy Network, a web of right-wing “think tanks” in every state across the country.

Tax Policy Center - In review, the Tax Policy Center uses minimal loaded emotional wording in their research and is minimally biased. All research is factually sourced to credible sources of information. The TPC also has a blog that has a left leaning bias in story selection and wording. The blog is also properly sourced and there isn’t evidence of any failed fact checks. Overall, we rate the Tax Policy Center least biased in research and left-center biased as a whole, based on a blog that favors left leaning policy issues. This source is also high in factual reporting

WSJ - Much harsher tone than above, labels the group really left leaning - https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-partisan-tax-policy-center-1457132750

If it's any help...Tax refunds are now larger than a year ago after the fourth week of filing season, a reversal from the last three weeks, the Internal Revenue Service reported on Thursday.

The average tax refund issued so far increased to $3,143, up 1.3 percent from $3,103 at the same time last year, according to IRS figures. It has issued almost 38.6 million total refunds, down 4.8 percent from last year.

Almost three-quarters of taxpayers whose returns were processed got refunds last year.

The latest numbers now include refunds to taxpayers claiming the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and the Additional Child Tax Credit (ACTC) – which generally increase the size of refunds.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2019/02/28/tax-refunds-come-bigger-week-versus-last-year/3018531002/

Bitch has to pay for her outfits and living large somehow.

Kakistocracy says

Also from the link:

It's still to early to draw conclusions

It was too early to draw conclusions when average refund drop was widely reported and gloated upon, but it didn't stop anyone, did it?

Kakistocracy says

Also from the link:

It's still to early to draw conclusions

It was too early to draw conclusions when average refund drop was widely reported and gloated upon, but it didn't stop anyone, did it?

It was too early to draw conclusions when average refund drop was widely reported and gloated upon, but it didn't stop anyone, did it?

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

It was too early to put up a Mission Accomplished banner on an aircraft carrier for a photo op to reported and gloated upon but it didn't stop anyone, did it ?

Should I start rolling out the proclamations of premature victory from the current administration now ?

Didn't do the math on the second link ? The average tax refund increase is a whopping $40

React to the headlines - don't bother with a little digging to see what else in the link and related materials

Kakistocracy says

It's still to early to draw conclusions

But you drew conclusions anyway, remember this thread (it's yours)?

http://patrick.net/post/1322202/2019-02-08-middle-class-dads-freak-out-about-trump-tax-hike-and-how-to-find-out-what-tax-bracket-you-re-in

Hugolas_Madurez says

Should I start rolling out the proclamations of premature victory from the current administration now ?

Nah, just continue with the #OrangeManBad theme, your specialty!

Kakistocracy says

And here’s the thing: We still don’t have enough data to draw conclusions!

Really, not enough data??

Kakistocracy says

The average tax refund issued so far increased to $3,143, up 1.3 percent from $3,103 at the same time last year, according to IRS figures. It has issued almost 38.6 million total refunds,

38 MILLION isn't enough data to draw any conclusions?

Where did you learn math?

Hugolas_Madurez says

It was too early to draw conclusions when average refund drop was widely reported and gloated upon, but it didn't stop anyone, did it?

Yep, certainly didn't stop him.

Kakistocracy says

Didn't do the math on the second link

Yes, we noticed.

Kakistocracy says

It was too early to put up a Mission Accomplished

What the fuck is this about? How the fuck is this relevant? Grasping for straws again?

OC - weren't you going to pack up your toys and go play somewhere else if certain people didn't stop commenting ?

As for Mr. Magic - the too early to draw conclusion came from the article not my words, then someone would have to be honest to fully use the quote instead of twisting the shit out of things to get a round of high fives from the fellow attack club members.

Same for leaving off the question mark on "didn't do the math" helps if all the parts of the quote are included but that doesn't serve the purpose of the attack.

As for my post sure is - still stand by it.

Then again RIF has never been a strong suit for the attack club but I did notice a number of high fives being passed around amongst the group.

As for the piece about the Mission Accomplished Banner - sure it's relevant - just using the same logic as the attack club - change the parameters - move the goalposts and add a new dimension to the topic at hand

The only ones missing right now is the respondent that schleps insurance from Los Angeles and my personal moderator.

Guys - please get some new material and while it is flattering you are trying to imitate me on a number of things here in this thread - the effort gets the following grades..

Creativity F

Originality F-

Overall presentation D-- (pity grade)

Tim Aurora says

Ceffer says

Canada could be conquered in a couple of days by USA or any of it's civil war splinter

And why would anyone or USA want to conquer Canada. It maybe easy to conquer but difficult to retain countries or regions.

To bolster our Strategic Maple Syrup Reserve, of course. If shit gets crazy, do you want to be eating dry pancakes???

I can see a civil war coming. Both republicans and democrats hate each other. More people are willing to put aside their humanity for their partisanship. Republicans love their guns and the democrats love their high horses. Not a good situation, unless you are China or Russia.

LastMan says

Both republicans and democrats hate each other. More people are willing to put aside their humanity for their partisanship. Republicans love their guns and the democrats love their high horses.

Based on that, who do you think is going to win?

MrMagic says

who do you think is going to win?

CHINA

d6rB says

CHINA

What if someone wants to use paper or plastic plates?

if plastic plates, the CA liberals will get a stroke

Kakistocracy says

Overall presentation

d6rB says

if plastic plates, the CA liberals will get a stroke

Ha, just no plastic straws.

OccasionalCortex says

Only thing prosperity will do is buy a lot more ammo for those guns they are going to stupidly try to take away.

Wait, why can't we buy more guns too?

The gun and ammo manufacturers will be making millions.

So far Trump has made America better, safer, stronger, and more prosperous.
He reduced government intrusion in our lives, and gave us opportunity to do something with money we earn by lowering taxes.
He slowed down advance of socialism and left wingery, which was hell bent on destroying all order in our society to replace it with chaos.

I very much appreciate Trump. He's a strong individual to stand up to left wing, and left hates him for it.

MAGA_BOMBER says

Bullshit

Trump is criminal and his greed destroyed what was left of America's democracy

FUCK TRUMP. He's going to go away.

Wasn't he impeached a couple months ago?

Twump!

(that's how they say it)

Especially girls like Maga Bomber.

Oh no, are we on the brink of a civil war?.....damn, the world is scary. As far as looting, I'm not worried. I don't have a supply of tvs, straight hair weaves or basketball hoops...Also no malt liquor. I'm good.

MrMagic says

LastMan says

Both republicans and democrats hate each other. More people are willing to put aside their humanity for their partisanship. Republicans love their guns and the democrats love their high horses.

Based on that, who do you think is going to win?

Don't high horses trump guns?

TWump!

The Erasure of the Islamic State's Caliphate Won't Ensure Its Defeat

◾The Islamic State core is losing the final sliver of its self-declared caliphate.

◾State sponsorship, sectarian violence and a power vacuum had allowed the Islamic State to flourish.

◾Unless these external factors are addressed, the Islamic State core could re-emerge as a serious threat, especially as the United States turns its attention elsewhere.

The U.S.-allied Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) launched an operation March 1 backed by U.S. artillery and air support in an effort to defeat the remnant core fighters of the Islamic State in the last sliver of the militant group's self-declared "caliphate," the term it used to describe the territory in Syria and Iraq it conquered and governed under its austere interpretation of Sharia.

With the destruction of the so-called caliphate imminent, many have begun to wonder if the jihadist group could ever recover.

But this is the wrong question.

Instead of asking whether the Islamic State core can recover as many — including Stratfor — did when the group was on the ropes in Iraq in 2010, the proper question is whether the Islamic State core will be permitted to recover again.

The difference between these two questions is subtle, but vitally important.

History has shown the dangers of underestimating the ability of jihadist groups to rebound from devastating losses. They have done so repeatedly in places like Somalia, Yemen, Nigeria, Afghanistan, Mali and, of course, Iraq. This resilience is not solely due to the jihadist groups' perseverance, willingness to suffer casualties and long-war approach to fighting insurgencies: External factors including state sponsorship, sectarian violence and a power vacuum were more important to the Islamic State in Iraq's recovery and dramatic expansion in the group's strategy and tactics. Many of these external factors still work in favor of jihadist insurgents in the Levant, meaning the Islamic State may again rise from the ashes.

The Remain and Expand Strategy

A core tenet of the Islamic State's organizational philosophy is its oft-repeated mantra, baqiya wa tatamaddad, Arabic for "remain and expand." The concept has helped the group withstand a series of significant losses, including the death of its founder Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in a U.S. airstrike, and deaths of subsequent leaders of the Islamic State in Iraq's Abu Omar al-Baghdadi and Abu Ayub al-Masri. Its persistence is rooted in its firm belief that God favors, although sometimes tests, the group. It is also rooted in writings that influenced its founders, such as Abu Bakr Naji's "The Management of Savagery" and Abu Musab al-Suri's "Call to Global Jihad." This narrative serves the important pragmatic purpose of boosting the group's morale in the face of much more powerful opponents.

The Islamic State has spun past battlefield losses by couching them in apocalyptic terms, claiming its numbers needed to be reduced to demonstrate divine power and that only the purest at heart would survive to fight and win the ultimate battle, to bolster the courage of its dwindling ranks.

But in addition to these apocalyptic pronouncements, the group's leaders have also taken a series of pragmatic steps to disperse some of their fighters, arms and riches, positioning the Islamic State to resume terrorist and insurgent operations after the caliphate's collapse. This campaign has been on display in Iraq, where the group continues to conduct operations despite having lost control of vast territories.

The Islamic State is again conducting assassinations, bombings and other operations in Iraq designed to shape the battlefield to its advantage, much as it did from 2010 to 2014. Brian Fishman's book "The Master Plan: ISIS, al-Qaeda, and the Jihadi Strategy for Final Victory" does a great job outlining the group's efforts during this time. But these efforts to shape the battlefield did not occur in a vacuum: A number of external factors greatly aided the revival of the Islamic State in Iraq and facilitated its expansion into the larger and more expansive Islamic State.

State Sponsorship Was a Key

Support from the government of Saddam Hussein in the form of weapons, money and training was one of the biggest factors fueling the jihadist insurgency in Iraq. Hussein's military planners understood from the experience of Operation Desert Storm and the example of the 2001 U.S. invasion of Afghanistan that they stood no chance if they stood toe-to-toe with the superior U.S. forces. So in the prelude to the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq, his military planners decided a prolonged guerrilla struggle was the better course. To this end, they cached quantities of weapons and materiel throughout the country for use during an insurgent campaign against U.S. forces. Highly trained Iraqi troops became the backbone of the insurgency, and former Iraqi intelligence officers its brains, eyes and ears. Without weapons from government caches and without the Iraqi military and intelligence personnel that flocked to the insurgency, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's Tawhid wa al-Jihad (Monotheism and Jihad) group would never have grown so large and powerful so rapidly.

Syria also greatly aided al Qaeda in Iraq/the Islamic State in Iraq by facilitating the flow of fighters, money and logistics through Syria to support the jihadist insurgency fighting the U.S.-led coalition in Iraq. Later, the Syrian government released large numbers of jihadists from prison in 2011 to bolster President Bashar al Assad's claims that the rebels were terrorists and to sow confusion and dissension in rebel ranks. Certainly, the emergence of the al Qaeda-linked Jabhat al-Nusra in Syria, and the Islamic State's later entrance as a combatant in the Syrian civil war, helped accomplish both goals.

Taking Advantage of Sectarian Tensions

Jihadists managed to gain so much traction among Iraq's Sunni population in part because the process of debaathification significantly disenfranchised Iraqi Sunnis. Progress to reverse Sunni marginalization during the Anbar Awakening occurred but was promptly squandered by the government of former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki after the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq. Many Sunni leaders came to believe that with the United States gone and their Awakening gains eroded, the jihadists were the only clout they still held with the central government. But this proved a dangerous calculation, and like Frankenstein's monster, the jihadists quickly turned on their Sunni master.

With the training and firepower that the Shiite Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) have amassed in Iraq in the wake of the Islamic State's seizure of Mosul, and the close connections that many of them have to Iran and its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), sectarian tensions will continue to simmer in Iraq, and Sunnis will continue to be wary of Shiite power. This, in turn, will provide Sunni jihadists some breathing room in Iraq's Sunni triangle. Meanwhile, the survival of the Assad regime in Syria due to ample help from Iranian and Hezbollah ground forces means sectarianism is also primed to continue in Syria.

Thriving in a Power Vacuum

The Syrian civil war created a power vacuum that swelled the power of jihadist militias. They used this strength to take over a large portion of Iraq and sizable chunks of Syria. The Islamic State, Jabhat al-Nusra (now known as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham) and other jihadist groups stepped in to provide governance, justice, security and services in areas left without them due to the civil war. This was similar to the way that jihadists in Iraq flourished amid the implosion of the Iraqi government, and before that, flourished amid the gray areas created by the autonomous Kurdish region and the no-fly zone in northern Iraq enforced by the U.S.-led coalition. With some ambiguity in who governs in northern Iraq remaining, and given the way Syria is currently partitioned, plenty spaces exist in Iraq and Syria that are not sufficiently goverened, granting Islamic State militants space to set up operations and regroup.

The Lessons of a U.S. Withdrawal

The example of how the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq in 2011 greatly aided the recovery of the Islamic State of Iraq and allowed its metamorphosis into the powerful Islamic State has fostered speculation that a complete U.S. withdrawal from Syria could produce similar results, in this case via a chain reaction of events such as a Turkish invasion of northeastern Syria that gives rise to chaos and a power vacuum in eastern Syria. A free-for-all that results in battles among the Turkish military, Kurdish forces from the SDF, plus others like the Syrian military, Iranian forces and Shiite militias could well once again push Syrian Sunnis into the arms of jihadists such as the Islamic State.

U.S. military planners appear to be taking this possibility into account and have pushed back on the concept of a complete withdrawal from Syria in favor of allowing a residual force to remain to help stabilize the situation and assist in ensuring that Islamic State is not allowed to swell again. The initiative to maintain a stabilizing force in Syria, however, is under pressure from larger global dynamics causing the U.S. military to shift its focus — and its finite resources — from counterinsurgency efforts to potential conflicts with near-peer powers like Russia and China. This same pressure extends beyond Syria and Iraq to other theaters, driving everything from U.S. peace talks with the Taliban in Afghanistan and the scaling back of U.S. engagement in West Africa.

The Islamic State core is just one branch of a global insurgency, a problem the world cannot simply kill its way out of. Combatting a global insurgency requires a global counterinsurgency effort, which means efforts to defeat jihadist groups must persist after the "clear" phase to the "hold" and "build" phases of counterinsurgency. And this must happen in every area where the jihadist insurgency is manifesting itself.

From 2010 to now, state sponsorship, sectarian violence and a power vacuum have all persisted to the Islamic State's advantage. Unless these factors are taken out of the equation, the Islamic State will have the opportunity to re-emerge as a formidable challenge to the region and the world.

https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/erasure-islamic-states-caliphate-wont-ensure-its-defeat

The Big Picture - Part 1

The Jihadist Wars

Since 2001, the U.S. government has spent trillions of dollars in the jihadist wars and has deployed thousands of conventional and special operations forces to dozens of countries to counter jihadist insurgencies. Despite the massive commitment of resources, the jihadist threat persists, and there is no end in sight.

Like communism, jihadism is a global phenomenon, and it is manifesting itself in a number of local insurgencies stretching from West Africa to the Philippines. (Moi has been telling everyone this for sometime now, has covered it on numerous threads and comments however the "base" continues to believe otherwise).

Combatting these insurgencies requires a global counterinsurgency effort, but with global dynamics drawing U.S. attention to the threats posed by near-peer competitors such as Russia and China, the focus of the U.S. military is being shifted elsewhere — meaning the Islamic State core might well be able to recover.

It’s tempting the think of jihadism as monolithic, but nothing could be further from the truth. The movement may be dominated by just two groups, al Qaeda and the Islamic State, but they have ideological differences that cannot be reconciled. Each of these groups, moreover, comprise a core organization, franchise groups and grassroots supporters, all of which present a distinct threat to their enemies. And though the coalition this threat has galvanized against it has had its fair share of victories, it has struggled to defeat jihadism as an ideology. And until it does, jihadists will be able to recruit and train new adherents to their cause. But the persistence of jihadism cuts both ways: The longer it lasts, the more the movement will crack under the weight of personal disputes, doctrinal differences and conflicting objectives.

https://worldview.stratfor.com/themes/jihadist-wars

The Big Picture - Part 2

The Fight Against the Islamic State

The Islamic State is in decline. Under pressure from all the enemies it has made in its rise to power, the group continues to lose territory in Iraq and Syria — and thus its claim as a legitimate caliphate. But for all its losses on the battlefield, it has lost none of its potency as a terrorist group, one that will continue to attack its foes in the Middle East and beyond. The Islamic State’s degradation, meanwhile, is fueling a competition for the lands it used to control, pitting the Iranians, Turks and Kurds against one another for influence in the absence of another authority.

https://worldview.stratfor.com/topic/fight-against-islamic-state

Hit Piece on Klobuchar.

https://patrick.net/post/1322858/2019-03-05-amy-klobuchar-s-uncorked-rage

Good! He needs to be the boss, not the whipping boy!

Fuck those Baby Killer Commie Bastards. Not worth the Shit on the Stick they use to stoke the flames of hate, if you ask me.

If the USOccasionalCortex says

Either way, an unstable nuclear power like America will not be something the Russians and Chinese will be 'glad' about, in the net analysis.

You assume Russia and China will be acting militarily, not politically and economically. While the US is fighting itself, Russia and China will be aggressively expanding their influence.

Elgatouno says

OccasionalCortex says

yet another Trump lie?

Wow, Liberals really aren't that smart, are they?

@Elgatouno Did I ever support Trump "blindly"? Please do not exaggerate. Trump has made a few mistakes, like bowing to Saudi Arabia.

But overall, Trump is objectively one of the best US presidents ever. He has focused on the core issue of resisting globalism because of what it has done to the country. And it's working. Wages for the poorest US citizens are rising, stock market has done extremely well, the issue of dissolving the border with Mexico has been given prominence.

We are also safer than we were under Obama. There have been no new wars, and in fact a reduction in foreign US military presence, for example in Syria and Korea. Tensions with Korea have been greatly reduced thanks to Trump.

We are living in an time of peace and prosperity thanks to Trump. So why the blind hatred for him? Sure, he has the air of a small-time con artist, but the reality on the ground is accomplishment after accomplishment by Trump, to the utter dismay of the elitist establishment.

Give the guy a chance. He's actually doing a fantastic job and bringing some much-needed disruption to the ossified corruption in DC.

From the OP:

Sohae has been North Korea's main satellite launch facility since 2012. It has also been used for testing engines for missiles capable of reaching the US.

But it has never been used for testing the ballistic missiles which have been considered so provocative.

"This distinction is important," Jenny Town, managing editor of monitoring group 38 North, told the BBC.

"The North Koreans likely see the rebuilding not as an active part of their missile programme, but of their civilian space programme - a distinction they have made repeatedly in the past," said Ms Town.

"Oh"

The last President of Paraguay was accused of selling fraudulent Marlboros and a Drug Dealer.

He finally built some highways, fixed some schools, and eased business regulations. He also began to set standards for buses (more on this later), requiring full fare buses to conform to certain standards.

His replacement is a complete servant of the Oligarchs, a former paratrooper from the Stroessner Regime. He's mostly interested in prohibiting competition and guarding the land interests of the old Wealthy Families. He does everything to help the Bus Monopoly (private and controlled by a couple of powerful families) and their 50 year old buses that were taken out of service by Bolivia and Brazil - few have A/C, and many have Plywood Floors because the original metal has rusted away. He literally shut down all online shopping imports by refusing to process shipments, while allowing the Elites to continue stocking electronics, clothes, etc. in their retail brick and mortars from abroad. Amazon/Alibaba was beating the shit out of the overpriced, minimal quality of imported goods at Oligarch's Stores. I'm talking about things the dollar store would reject for poor quality. But he presents himself, unlike secular Cortes, as being Mr. Straightlace.

Sometimes, a mildly Corrupt Drug Smuggler is the best choice.

I feel certain that NK is a puppet regime of China, used as their mad dog on a leash against the West. Right now, we are locked in a trade war with China, conducted almost solely by our POTUS. China knows that if it can damage Trump, it can weaken US resolve against it and win the trade war. Consequently, it’s making Rocket Man pull some shit to thwart the peace process.

What we are seeing therefore, is a negotiation process between the USA and China, not NK.

Flawed people do great and wonderful things every single day. If you’re looking for all our leaders to be replaced by perfectly virtuous bureaucrats, you’re asking for mismanagement, oppression, and a lack of vision.
I think the leader’s goals are more important than their personal virtue. Trump has made his goals crystal clear: Make America Great Again.

For some reason, this goal alone is enough to send Leftists into a tooth gnashing frenzy. I wonder if that’s because they have an entirely OPPOSITE goal? It would seem to be the case.
Therefore, we may safely discount all Leftist opinion and thought as it’s designed to promote an agenda that tears down America rather than builds it up.

MisterLearnToCode says

The last President of Paraguay was accused of selling fraudulent Marlboros and a Drug Dealer.

He finally built some highways, fixed some schools, and eased business regulations. He also began to set standards for buses (more on this later), requiring full fare buses to conform to certain standards.

Look at the merging markets boom in most every South American country from 2002 to 2015. I saw first hand my MIL Lima Peru outskirt neighborhood go from something straight out of District 9(the scifi movie) to something that could be a borough in Queens in that time. They went from sheer destitution to a somewhat middle class society in just 10 short years. Fast forward to Trump and the rise of Nationalism, those Conservative pols in all of the SA countries that saw positive growth and development. Are all wrapped up in legal troubles now, and the Socialists in those countries are trying to put them all in prison for life, even their whole families. Say they took pay offs and bribes.

$195k? Obama spent more on his date night w michael.

Might as well start a thread about Trump being bribed by $20 coupon books.

Quigley says

NK is a puppet regime of China

Yes, that is how China uses North Korea to exploit the USA into agreeing to large trade deficits.