patrick.net

Sorry all, I had a great one. The post (above) didn't go through. I don't have the heart to type it again. Have a Good One,

Dayum, and I had a witty comeback too.

I've been doing the same actually, except it's been since 1997 when I saw housing starting to bubble :(

Granted, now I have a few hundred k liquid, but it's going to take a few more years so save enough to buy outright in the bay area.

Either way, I'm not touching anything. This market is ridiculous and is ripe for a fall.

I should add "this housing market and our economy" is ripe for a fall. I really have a bad feeling the next 10 years + are going to suck something fierce.

Decreasing prices in electronics is not deflation. Prices of electrons have steadily decreased for about 50 years, despite 50 straight years of inflation.

Can't argue with prices and Laptops, PDA's by top manufacturers as well as HDTV have never been more affordable and for the most recent models.

Oh jeez, another soothsayer that knows how EVERYTHING pans out in the next couple of years. who wins the Superbowl in 2012 ? Ok , that is three years but still valuable info regardless. Please say

theoakman says

Decreasing prices in electronics is not deflation. Prices of electrons have steadily decreased for about 50 years, despite 50 straight years of inflation.

LOL! Sarcasm.. thats good.. here is a blast from the past.
It cost $9K back in 89, of course it also paid everyones salary. Now the same product (netbooks) are a tiny fraction. There is no one in SV who can control prices.. not even Google or Oracle.

This is 2640 Broadway in San Francisco, between Scott and Normandie. It also happens to be Nancy Pelosi's house. Looks like she can afford to pay for everybody's health insurance all by herself!

Seller Facts: Single family 3 beds 3.0 bath 1,800 sqft Lot 100,536,480 sqft ???????? Built in 1990 Seller's Description: Elegant home in the heart of Menlo Park. Short walk from downtown. Designed by award winning architect,Roger East. Enter a beautifully secluded inner court past a tranquil pond to your front door.Green design with active and passive solar heathing.Crafted with the finest materials. This is sophistication and comfort in exclusive tri-level living. THIS LOOKS ABOUT right! I can afford it. It's listed on Zillow for $4,100 dollars. At this price mortgage is an affordable $17/month. Maybe its a mistake? But even a homeless person might be able to swing the payments on this one. A part time job as a custodian at McDonalds at about 2 hours per week would qualify you to buty. But what about health insurance costs? food? It does look cheaper than rent. Maybe I could rent it out to someone for $50/month and keep the extra $33 dollars? Here is the link on zilllow http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/827-Fremont-St-Menlo-Park-CA-94025/15595854_zpid/ %

Seller Facts: Single family 3 beds 3.0 bath 1,800 sqft Lot 100,536,480 sqft ???????? Built in 1990 Seller's Description: Elegant home in the heart of Menlo Park. Short walk from downtown. Designed by award winning architect,Roger East. Enter a beautifully secluded inner court past a tranquil pond to your front door.Green design with active and passive solar heathing.Crafted with the finest materials. This is sophistication and comfort in exclusive tri-level living. THIS LOOKS ABOUT right! I can afford it. It's listed on Zillow for $4,100 dollars. At this price mortgage is an affordable $17/month. Maybe its a mistake? But even a homeless person might be able to swing the payments on this one. A part time job as a custodian at McDonalds at about 2 hours per week would qualify you to buty. But what about health insurance costs? food? It does look cheaper than rent. Maybe I could rent it out to someone for $50/month and keep the extra $33 dollars? Here is the link on zilllow http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/827-Fremont-St-Menlo-Park-CA-94025/15595854_zpid/ %

I built this house in 1999 for $135k, or $57sf. It peaked at $189sf (I sold @ $154sf). The house next door is listed for $62sf. Oh, the American dream of home ownership. BULL SHIT!

The dream of home ownership isn't bullshit. What's bullshit is the dream of home equity.

I own that house. I wish I sold it about purchased gold. Oh well, I have to say I feel like a slave in my own country. I can never retire, I can't afford health care, I can't move. I think this is common

Bay Area (Pleasanton) transplant Best move I ever made. Only draw back is the number of CA's transplants is driving up home price and property taxes.

Dude, Shaw of Iran Built this casa, and then his family lived here prior to selling. Nice!

Bayside Commons

"TOKYO (Reuters) -- Sony Corp. posted a loss for the fourth consecutive quarter, hit by sluggish cellphone sales and as it cut prices of its PlayStation 3 game gear, but trimmed its full-year loss forecast close to market expectations.

Sony's mobile phone joint venture with Sweden's Ericsson saw its sales tumble and losses balloon as it has lacked a strong smartphone offering to rival Apple Inc.'s (AAPL, Fortune 500) iPhone and Research in Motion's (RIM) Blackberry." (which are also cheaper than a cup of Starbucks coffee)

So that's not Deflation, then what is your definition?

Many mortgage fraud homes available at inflated prices, even better, their backyard is the busiest road in south florida. robberies on the rise and cops are overwhelmed. this area is still way overpriced and is quickly becoming more unpleasant. you either have a full walled / gated property or you remove everything from your car before you lock up tight. sirens of ambulances and train noises are consistent as well.

Damn, view of the ocean too. It's good to be the king.

This is a toxic waste site in Henderson, NV they are currently excavating with plans to build residential homes on.

What kind of toxic waste? How do you know?

Big open pools of something out there on the photo. Henderson is already way overbuilt, i am guessing.

Actually the cty address is: Lake Clarke Shore and not Palm Springs. Lake Clarke is a small town with its own Police Dept etc....

I've got the addresses mostly automated through Google maps now. For some reason Google thinks it's Palm Springs.

Right on the former site of the Mustang Ranch!

This place has been abandoned for about a year. It sold for around $225,000 during 2007. Then briefly listed for $189,000 around the end of 2008 before appearing abandoned. The blackberries appeared to be growing into the side of the house this past summer, 2009.

What is wrong with not WANTING OR NEEDING to buy crap? Can someone please tell me what is wrong with deflation? I like the fact that my dollars will buy more, even if I don't NEED what it is they can buy for less. As for houses falling in price, what is wrong with that? Don't people NEED houses? Why must houses be expensive? We need food, and yet we don't like it when that costs more; we need gasoline for our cars, and we're always whining about how expensive it is (it still seems cheap to me, but then again, I don't drive much). If a nation cannot or will not live within its means, then it gets what it deserves, and from where I sit, this whole deflation thing is a nonstarter.

"thomas.wong87 Right on the former site of the Mustang Ranch!" Mustang Ranch hundreds of miles from Henderson NV. Its better to be thought a fool that to prove it. . .

thunderlips11 says

Tenounce, deflation is the loss of pricing power throughout the economy. Usually happens after a credit bubble as people tighten their belts, buying fewer and fewer goods and services. Firms then lay off people and reduce production, but then there is even less buying, and then firms cut markups down to the bone from the factory to the truck to the warehouse to the point of sale… everybody hoards cash… no spending… no jobs. Company is making so little per product sold at all levels they can barely afford to service their obligations (if at all).

You rip those lines off the front news page today and yet talk about it, like it's another era.

Originally, Henderson was the industrial area outside of Vegas, with railroad access. Pepcon (the rocket-fuel company) exploded there. There are still many companies operating here that the Clark County Commission has encouraged to move to Apex, about 20 miles north of Vegas. Even with financial incentives, the companies were there first, are grandfathered in and if they don't want to move (most don't), they don't have to. Henderson's population exploded in the 80's & on with the inception of Green Valley, a huge master planned community. Henderson is located at the valley's lowest elevation, so pollutants collect there. Having lived in Vegas for awhile, I can recall the protests of Green Valley residents, demanding that the chemical plants be moved. Especially after the chlorine leak described below. There are some very expensive, very exclusive homes and gated communities in this area and the buyers had no recourse - the chemical plants were there first. http://www.usfa.dhs.gov/downloads/pdf/publications/tr-052.pdf May 6, 1991 A massive leak of liquefied chlorine gas created a dangerous cloud of poison gas over the city of Henderson, Nevada, in the early morning hours of May 6, 1991. Over 200 persons were examined at a local hospital for respiratory distress caused by inhalation of the chlorine and approximately 30 were admitted for treatment. Approximately 700 individuals were taken to shelters. It is estimated that from 2,000 to 7,000 individuals were taken elsewhere. The Pioneer Chlor Alkali facility is located in an industrial area, approximately 10 miles southeast of Las Vegas, Nevada. It is one of several chemicals and materials processing facilities that are located in the Basic Management Inc. complex. When the BMI complex was established, during World War II, it was located in the desert, several miles from any existing populated areas. Henderson was established nearby as a support community for the industries that were located in the complex. The Las Vegas metropolitan area has experienced rapid growth during the last decade and the City of Henderson has become a heavily populated suburb with more than 60,000 residents. The BMI complex currently occupies an unincorporated “island” under the jurisdiction of Clark County and is almost completely surrounded by the incorporated City of Henderson. Public concern with the materials that are produced and stored in the BMI complex has created pressure to relocate the complex, away from populated areas. Several Hazmat incidents have occurred in the immediate area, including an explosion of ammonium perchlorate at an adjacent facility in 1988, which resulted in two deaths and 372 injuries that included 15 firefighters. The most recent incident occurred while the Nevada State Legislature was considering a bill to require the complex to be relocated to an isolated area, approximately 15 miles north of Las Vegas. (For a detailed description of the earlier incident, refer to Report 021 of this series, “Fire and Explosions at Rocket Fuel Plant, Henderson, Nevada.”)

thunderlips11 says

Computers falling in price has to do with technological innovation and the increased economy of scale in production costs that comes when manufacturers are increasing supply. It’s not deflation.

My dear Thunderlips, we didnt scale production, far from it. Silicon Valley did all it could to keep prices high to rack in revenue and keep industries going given there were few players and sky high demand for information products, we certainly had incredible profits and huge demand for labor/skilled labor. Once the Japanese figured on their own to create microprocessors, harddrives, mother boards, mainframes and minis... that was it for our pricing power. The Europeans were not far behind them. You can be as 'innovative' as you like but you still have inherit deflation in tech products.

As such Japan/Taiwan/Korean entered the US markets and dropped prices forcing us to exit markets and/or ship jobs creating plenty of deflation.

Look up the last point on Japans deflation on Wiki:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deflation#Major_deflations

"Imported deflation: Japan imports Chinese and other countries' inexpensive consumable goods, raw materials (due to lower wages and fast growth in those countries). Thus, prices of imported products are decreasing. Domestic producers must match these prices in order to remain competitive. This decreases prices for many things in the economy, and thus is deflationary."

Not even Moor's law foresaw deflation. In fact "technological innovation" requires considerable amount of new capital and retooling which is expensive. As such to keep up with innovation requires cheaper labor and materials because pricing pressure still remains. We haven't had price inflation goods/services in decades.

"If that was the case, then cars are really deflated. A $360 Model A Ford is about $20k in modern dollars. For less than $20k, you can buy a Camry today. The former does not come with power windows, 10-CD changer, airbags, seatbelts, interior heating, etc. etc."

And yet, Detroit's mistake was to increase costs in labor in face of competition with lower prices from Japan.
High Tech product SV produced also had high labor costs, but they have pay limits with limitless layoffs/restructuring over the past decades.

Can you compare pre-war Toyota car prices to Toyota today without add on features?

thomas.wong87 says

My dear Thunderlips, we didnt scale production, far from it. Silicon Valley did all it could to keep prices high to rack in revenue and keep industries going given there were few players and sky high demand for information products, we certainly had incredible profits and huge demand for labor/skilled labor.

My dear Thomas-- Of course you scaled production. Regardless of what you can sell your product for, you still want to produce for as little as possible. So you can reap the "incredible profits" that you mention.

@nomograph

“But wait”, you cry. “Investments are risky!” Well, life is risky and there are no guarantees. There will always be winners and losers. Try not to be a loser.

“But wait”, you cry. “I read on Patrick.net that America is toast and that there will be rioting and the economy will never recover, so I’m putting all my savings into gold!” Congratulations, you are well on your way to being a loser.

I agree, however, we can all take steps to reduce our personal risk. Now is the time to reduce debt, increase savings for when those opportunities arise if your not already in a position to do so.

I'm gonna take a loan against my home and invest in real estate. Real estate ALWAYS goes up.

4X says

I agree, however, we can all take steps to reduce our personal risk. Now is the time to reduce debt, increase savings for when those opportunities arise if your not already in a position to do so.

+1

More so than since shortly after the Depression, will there have ever been a greater opportunity for "Two Mules and Goat" stories. I think with in the next year and onward for a few years, those that managed to save. Will be in an extraordinary position to find cheap niche opportunities in almost every Brick and Mortar business, as well as other private investment opportunities, that will make the fantasy Real Estate market look like a suckers bet.

The trick is going to be, having a Mule and Goat to start with. Because the banks aren't going to be in the business of actually loaning money anymore. They will just have schemes and complex financial investment vehicles that allows banks to prosper and grow, on the ebb and flow of the myriad of Zombie banks siphoning off profits through losses.

"Regardless of what you can sell your product for, you still want to produce for as little as possible. So you can reap the “incredible profits” that you mention."

Clearly you don't have any financial background and haven't worked in an competitive enterprise.

A prime example of a bubble buster, sold for $1.2million in 2004 and now the banks don't even want 700k for it.

I tried to find the Steve Martin line from "let's get small" (recorded at the boarding house in San Francisco) where he talks about charging thousands of dollars per seat for his show, culiminating in the statement, "One show, I'm out."

...or some variation thereof. But I couldn't find it. It would've applied here.