patrick.net

Tim Aurora says

The opening of the economy is again a cost vs life issue.

Yup. We save and also make money in the process. People get their paychecks and not UE benefits and we have a bunch of old people die that we no longer have to pay out SS for. Win-win in my book. Not sure the issue. If you don't want to die, stay home if you're old and weak. Not complicated.

Tim Aurora says

First of all these are stupid examples.. We do have speed limits and they do save lives. There has to be an optimum speed limit which balances the time vs loss of life. We do have "driver licenses" for stopping stupid people driving and killing others.

The speed limit and driver's license were supposed to be conditions for operating a motor vehicle on "public" roads. There is no government specified speed limit or license requirement for you to either run or drive on your own private land.

The opening of the economy is again a cost vs life issue. Each life and hospitalization is also a cost, not just the money lost in the restaurant or a factory. They will not open games to public but may do it with empty stadium. Or they may open construction but delay non-essential projects.

And you think a "cost vs. life issue" is best left to bureaucrats bought off by the Gates? Instead of leaving that choice to yourself on an individual basis? We already know that the inventor of computer virus Bill Gates and his foundation ruined/killed millions of lives in Africa and India in pursuit of deadly vaccines; how many Americans do you want them to kill in their pursuit of placing a digital tag on you?

"Believe it, the paradigm has changed" , a quote from my Chinese friend who lived there during SARs.

The paradigm didn't change for Chinese during the original SARS: their Confucian word-view always viewed citizens/subordinates as live-stock to be used and abused by the superior . . . in other words, an even more dehumanizing version of the Third Reich's Fuhrerprinzip.

lets keep everything closed for another half year and then we will have neither economy nor coronavirus left. Only cannibal anarchy, which is much better than corona cold.

Is the CIA still weighing the notion that it was behind the Kennedy assassination? Yeah, I'm so interested in what it is weighing.

This lays it all out. And indeed, this extremely well researched documentary may have been the catalyst for Washington Intelligence agencies to get off their asses and look into this.

www.youtube.com/embed/3bXWGxhd7ic

rd6B says

lets keep everything closed for another half year and then we will have neither economy nor coronavirus left. Only cannibal anarchy, which is much better than corona cold.

Corona will never leave. It’s quite permanent.

I always thought it was a huge overreaction or biological warfare. It might be both.

The lockdown situation is so ridiculous.

I am in line at Trader Joe's and EVERYONE except me and the doorman, is wearing masks. The blue lines spaced out every six feet stretch around the corner. They let a couple at a time in. I moved up a little bit to get out of the sun and the elderly masked man 5, not 6, feet in front of me turns and says, " can you maintain social distance?, I know it's sunny but I don't want to give my symptoms to you".
I replied, "I can see the virus cloud around you".
He turned around and shut up.

I'm next. The unmasked doorman will give me a squirt of hand sanitizer and I can get some food.

Tenpoundbass says

Durham announces his indictments

Thanks, haven't been reading about Durham:

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15219/durham-indictments

There is new evidence that U.S. Attorney John Durham is getting to the root of criminal abuses by senior U.S. law enforcement and intelligence officials in their conspiracy to undermine the Trump campaign, transition and presidency. Mr. Durham's mandate from Attorney General William Barr -- to uncover the seditious plot behind the Trump-Russia hoax, if pursued vigorously, will uncover the single greatest threat to the Constitution since the nation's founding.

It's going to be amusing hearing Democrats try to claim there's nothing actionable with Durham, while continuing to champion Nixon's Impeachment.

What Obama did is far, far worse on a greater level for a longer period of time.

Those neodynium magnets are friggin strong as hell. If you got two of those up your nose, you wouldn't be able to get any amount of leverage to get them out on your own. They are hard enough to separate by hand when they are small.

No. So what? Neither can Influenza. In fact unlike the CVs which mutate slowly influenza mutates each season and rapidly, so vaccines are never reliable. Long term influenza is a much bigger challenge. Let it burn out. Reopen May 1st!

It's pointing out that the global death toll with varying degrees of lockdown by country is still far below what normally happens every year due to the flu.

ThreeBays says

There's not going to be a quick return to normal.

Prediction: There will indeed be a quick return to normal, except, hopefully, for some valuable lessons learned about why we should not continue to outsource to China.

Why the quick return to normal? Because pretty much every country on earth is on the same curve, showing this thing lasts about 90 days even with varying responses among countries:



More predictions:

- Democrats will blame Trump for not doing enough
- Democrats will blame Trump for doing too much
- Democrats will attempt to continue to outsource factories to China and insource illegals from Mexico, and scream !RACIST! at anyone who objects
- voters will get serious about objecting to the devastation of the US working class, and Democrats will lose not only this election, but the next as well

ThreeBays says

if we were to go back to normal the epidemic would spike right back up

But vast swathes of the population have already had it with few or no symptoms, and they probably won't get it again. 50% to 75% of the infected are asymptomatic.

So the epidemic probably won't come back in any significant way. It's running out of new blood already.

ThreeBays says

When you take that and herd immunity into account it's closer to 100k in a day at peak. Of course this is a possibility but not something we'll actually see because we'll keep interfering with it.

We have 134k deaths WORLDWIDE as of this post. First known cases about early December 2019. Almost 5 fucking months deep. 80-90% of places didn't shut down after their first tested case. How in the flying fuck do you get to 100k in a day when we sat here opened up for MONTHS??? You're dogma is pure bullshit at this point. We weren't testing, and when we did, we found the first case in January. This assumption that the Chinese guy in Washington was patient zero in the states is laughable at best and retarded most likely.

No one was testing for this in the states or Europe, even when they shut down Wuhan. I think you kind of already have done so, but you want this to bring down Trump. Even if it does, who cares??? Unless you're a fortune 500 company, the POTUS does almost zilch for you or me. This is not a serious crisis outside of the media for some reason making it one. Biden could get elected tomorrow and I don't give a flying fuck. This isn't about politics. I do think the ass wads perpetrating this, are starting to realize the gig is over. Hopefully this is the last piece of shit flung at the wall.

Although I do predict there will be another mass casualty event before November. Maybe the biggest we've seen in modern history post Vietnam. I hope I'm wrong, but blowing up a flu bug has backfired at this point. I don't think we've seen the grand finale.

Patrick says

Prediction: There will indeed be a quick return to normal, except, hopefully, for some valuable lessons learned about why we should not continue to outsource to China.

I hope so. I was deeply troubled by Newsom talking for hours without saying anything, esp. not acknowledging May 1st as SIP expiration and make an extension the unlikely event only in case things get drastically worse. Instead he went with an extension being likely unless everything is great end of April. This is piss poor leadership and abandoning CAs paycheck to paycheck workers, many of which are young adults. Maybe he was briefed by his globalist masters who didn't like his earlier cooperation with the Donald to prolong this as much as possible because orange! Man! Must! Look! Bad!

ThreeBays says

Patrick says

But vast swathes of the population have already had it

Nah, a very small proportion has had it overall. 3% maybe.

Source?

mell says

Maybe he was briefed by his globalist masters who didn't like his earlier cooperation with the Donald to prolong this as much as possible because orange! Man! Must! Look! Bad!

My tin foil hat is firmly in place admittedly. I think this virus flopped. I think we see the grand finale next. I'm honestly scared for what it is. The game could get out of control. I try to be level headed and rational, but it's one thing after another at this point. There's no way there's not some mass casualty event before November at this point... I'm convinced of that.

Joshua Gans
@joshgans
· 7h
Given that we have stuck almost everyone in households for a month, surely we only have to test one member if each household to release them. And we can do that going forward. Should cut tests by a third.

Patrick says

Joshua Gans
@joshgans
· 7h
Given that we have stuck almost everyone in households for a month, surely we only have to test one member if each household to release them. And we can do that going forward. Should cut tests by a third.

This is how one of the confirmed cases I know of was handled. They tested the wife (my buddies aunt) and she was positive. They literally said they just assumed her husband was positive and wouldn't test him. So one test turned into two positive cases of COVID-19. This is what we're dealing with. The bullshit and hype is staggering.

ThreeBays says

Do we know if they counted it?

Docs said it was counted. Can only go off the 1 person I know out of 3 that is alive that said this to my friend. Mind you out of thousands of people. I'm clocking in at about 0.04% deaths in my extended network. But hey, pandemic?

WookieMan says

ThreeBays says

Patrick says

But vast swathes of the population have already had it

Nah, a very small proportion has had it overall. 3% maybe.

Source?

Wherever they took statistic samples of asymptomatic people in the world around 15%-20% tested positive for antibodies. Few dont develop (sufficient) ABs and few lose them over time. So around 20% is the likely figure, which is sizable but in line with the percentage infected by a good pandemic. Add in all the sick over the next few months/years and you arrive anywhere between 20%-25%. The cat has been out of the bag long ago.

ThreeBays says

Patrick says

But vast swathes of the population have already had it

Nah, a very small proportion has had it overall. 3% maybe.

Diamond Princess showed that half to 3/4 of the population already had it, leaving 20-30% still vulnerable at that time. The tests on USS Teddy Roosevelte showing only 10% positive meant that 80-90% of the population already had exposure. As those ships with dozens of people sharing the same room around the clock (especially the restaurants and mess halls onboard), everyone who didn't have antibody would have been infected.

ThreeBays says

100K deaths in a day would've happened some time in May if we carried on business as usual.

LOL! Only in the dreams of someone who doesn't understand math and the basics of how virus infection works in an animal herd

I'm not sure why you're so incredulous. We had around 2,500 deaths recorded today. One month ago we had 12, that's a 208x increase in one month. It's only a 40x increase from here to 100K.

The 2500 number is due to a one-time adding back of cumulative deaths of a particular category over multiple weeks that previous bureaucratic standards didn't count.

ThreeBays says

I'm not sure why you're so incredulous. We had around 2,500 deaths recorded today. One month ago we had 12, that's a 208x increase in one month. It's only a 40x increase from here to 100K.

What? Jan 22 we were recording a minimum of 17 deaths daily at least... A month ago it was 1,459 in a day. There's a reason I capped WORLDWIDE. I think you're taking wrong numbers and plugging them into the US population or you're just being dishonest.

ThreeBays says

My prediction is we're not going to bottom out for quite a few months, and if we were to go back to normal the epidemic would spike right back up. It's a terrible catch-22.

Any new spike would the result of quarantine selecting the more deadly strains/variants of the virus, or a new virus being released/leaked. After all, criminal psychopaths do exist: someone released Ames-strain Anthrax from biological labs after 9-11.

The criminal psychopathic cabal however do seem to be quite idiotic: every single doubt recently being spread about antibody effectiveness is essentially an argument against Gates' own vaccine solution; how can exposure to dead virus in vaccine be effective in building up immunity if after fighting off the real life virus can't even result in immunity?

Of course CV being an RNA virus, which means the single-stranded RNA itself being prone to mutation when replicating, no permanent immunity (to future mutations) is possible regardless whether herd immunity (to current prevalent strains) is achieved via natural exposure or via vaccine. So shutting down while waiting for a vaccine is utterly stupid.

As the shutdown of general society while not shutting down hospitals and nursing homes continue, the risk of more deadly strains gaining evolutionary advantage becomes more significant. Because police and national guard operate on concentration of force (as otherwise they'd be out-numbered 1000:1 if going out individually), police and national guard will quickly become infected and ineffective if/when a more deadly contagious disease emerges (as of one week ago, NYPD had about 20% on sick-leaves citing Covid-19); at that point, the general population (at least those still surviving) will fully embrace 2nd Amendment right, discarding every single anti-gun law since the first unconstitutional infringement in the early 20th century.

Even the more clueful Democratic governors with future presidential aspirations have been distancing themselves from lock-downs, as they clearly recognize that Americans are not believers in internal societal lock-downs. If this lock-down continues for much/any longer, the Democrats will have their clock cleaned in the November election.

ThreeBays says

WookieMan says

We have 134k deaths WORLDWIDE as of this post. First known cases about early December 2019. Almost 5 fucking months deep. 80-90% of places didn't shut down after their first tested case. How in the flying fuck do you get to 100k in a day when we sat here opened up for MONTHS???

100K deaths in a day would've happened some time in May if we carried on business as usual.

ThreeBays says

I was talking about US now vs US one month ago. 12 daily deaths on March 15th. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

That's fine, but you clearly either didn't want to read or misread what I posted. It's one or the other. We're using the same source. Regardless, this doesn't get to 100k daily deaths WORLDWIDE ever. It's basically impossible as those most susceptible to death from this are or have died. The virus has less and less people to kill as the days go by.

ThreeBays says

We can easily get an upper bound estimate on US infections. NYC has a population of 8.4M. If we say herd immunity is reached at 80%, then the upper bound on infected people in NYC is 6.7M. NYC makes up 40% of US covid deaths, so the upper bound of infected people in the US is 16.75M or 5% of the population. That's the UPPER BOUND.

Are you taking into account demographics? Population density? You're taking the worst possible place for a virus to be and saying those numbers will be the same elsewhere. That's not going to happen nationwide. Ever.

ThreeBays says

We can easily get an upper bound estimate on US infections. NYC has a population of 8.4M. If we say herd immunity is reached at 80%, then the upper bound on infected people in NYC is 6.7M. NYC makes up 40% of US covid deaths, so the upper bound of infected people in the US is 16.75M or 5% of the population. That's the UPPER BOUND.

What are you trying to say? If you assume herd immunity is reached at 80%, then of course 80% of the population will have to be exposed one way or another. If each person gets his/her first exposure in a normal social setting, at low viral load, especially under a strong sun like on a beach or in a park (UV kills most airborne virus), then the person is effectively vaccinated (by the natural vaccine created by the Sun's UV); if most people have to get their first exposure in an indoor hospital / nursing-home setting with high viral load, then there would be a lot of sick/dead people from the virus. Locking-down the society kills people quite unnecessarily from a purely virology perspective, before considering any economic effect.

ThreeBays says

Pop density doesn't matter here, we're just talking about how many people are infected.

Population density, especially housing format, matters a lot: NYC apartment buildings have a lot of indoor elevators and staircases that never see sunlight. Whereas the rest of the country mostly live in single-family homes, where the spread of virus from one household to another would expose the virus to prolonged UV irradiation from the Sun during March to September. The high population density of NYC also results in subways and high taxi usage, both of which make people breathe each other's out-breath in a small enclosed space.

Demographics matter. Demographics wise, NYC has a younger population, and lower incidence of obesity than the nation.

But also lower hygiene standards/habits, more opportunities for plumbing errors (and roof plumbing vents creating sewer gas/droplets, especially in the shadow of another building therefore not being sufficiently exposed to the Sun's UV), and cooks/serving-staff not washing hands long enough before touching people's food. Not to mention the hospitals having a higher probability of being staffed by affirmative-action morons who are committing suicide and homicide by not fully protecting themselves during their interactions with patients (as shown in that CBS interview with the doctor / ward chief not wearing eye protection and having the mask's nose clip untightened; none of her staff behind her were wearing eye goggles either while attending to a large windowless room full of alleged Covid-19 patients).

ThreeBays says

Pop density doesn't matter here,

I'm out. This is one of the most unintelligent things I've read on this virus. Why the fuck are entire nursing homes where residents live in 10x10 rooms getting wiped out? Is it density or age? Has to be one or the other.

Considering we're at the point of requiring masks and social distancing, you'd be insane to say population density didn't matter.... which you did.

Just say FUCK TRUMP and move on at this point. Feel like I'm beating a dead horse at this point.

ThreeBays says

Reality says

If each person gets his/her first exposure in a normal social setting, at low viral load, especially under a strong sun like on a beach or in a park (UV kills most airborne virus), then the person is effectively vaccinated (by the natural vaccine created by the Sun's UV); if most people have to get their first exposure in an indoor hospital setting with high viral load, then there would be a lot of sick/dead people from the virus.

Yeah, sorry I don't subscribe to theories pulled out of asses.

Viral load has a huge effect on whether the person gets sick from Covid-19 (and from flu, cold, etc.)

UV light is what is used for disinfecting medical operating rooms, and what's used in most cleaning machines for N-95 masks for re-use.

These two theories / facts are far better grounded in reality than any of the vaccine theory promoted by Gates organization or any of the models promoted by Fauci.

Truth ignored, this is what is called modern journalism. That’s what gives people TDS, who believe anything on internet because that’s easier than thinking.

Left is back to selling edge lord clickbait lol. I guess stupid audience needs stupid bait.

https://hartford.craigslist.org/for/d/middletown-toilet-paper-seeds/7100786040.html

ThreeBays says

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-04-15/covid-19-studies-imply-more-than-1-million-new-yorkers-with-virus

Based on women giving birth tested for covid-19 in NY, 15% tested positive. So NY hotspot has around 15% infection rate. Nationwide average would be around 1%.

Once again, your comment is showing ignorance. The 15% is the absolutely minimum lower-bound, as clearly expressed in the article as "more than 15%." What's the upper-bound? Can be 80% or even higer. Why? Because the Coronavirus test is testing for viral RNA fragments; a person (a new mother or new-born) having fought off the virus earlier during pregnancy and before delivery would not produce a positive result as they have already flushed the virus from their bodies. An anti-body test is unlikely to produce a positive result within a few weeks either, as the human body has to take several weeks to shift from producing short-term anti-body proteins to producing long-term antibody proteins. The anti-body tests are only testing for long-term antibody proteins. By the time anti-body tests show up positive in 1% or more among the population for a respiratory disease RNA virus, usually the virus has already passed through the bulk of the population.