patrick.net

According to the 'Sunol-Grade-Ometer', we could already be in recession. Sunol Grade is the route taken by all the East Bay and Central Valley commuters into Silicon Valley. It dried up a bit during work at home Covid fraud season, but got steadily congested again. Now, it is passable with minimal or no delays, even during many rush hour times when previously it started to jam up around 3:30PM to as late as 7:30 PM. I don't think that many people are working at home again.

My wife noticed fewer people in grocery store, and people are buying fewer items. I used to be able to tell the recession downturns 6 weeks ahead just by talking to my clients when I had the business.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/imf-warns-sanctions-against-russia-threaten-weaken-dominance-dollar?source=patrick.net

Nah, the world was better in Britain's day.

Tough Victorian ideology.
Mild and Firm Patriarchy.
Freedom of Thought never achieved since - seriously, the 19th was a paradise of Free Thought and so much decentralized and dispersed media, before "Manufactured Consent"
Dynamite and Opiates for free purchase without restriction.
Gun ownership in Britain itself.
Famines steadily disappeared in India and Africa; massive infrastructure improvements from railroads to sewers. Though maybe the Brits shouldn't have invested so much.
Women's Voting advocates imprisoned and force fed when they broke the law.
Everybody going out for a stroll after dinner and sharing news while smoking a cheroot.

Returning to the 19th in many ways would be a blessing.

WW1 was the beginning of the suicide of the West, we must put back the clock. Forward to the Past! Smash the HRE/4thReich/EU.

I am sick of Turd World bullshit narratives from Franz Fannon and "Anti-Racist" bullshit.

If I could recapture the spirit of any time, it would be the Victorian era. With modifications, of course.

Putin is 50% on Ukraine ease, but 50% right on "The Sanctions will getcha!" being another Neolibcon Fail.

Update: Russian Gas is still powering German, Austrian, Netherland, and other countries in Europe today. As it did yesterday, the day before, a week ago, etc.

It's a bit like the Romans in Life of Brian.

"What have the Romans ever done for us?"
"The aqueduct. And let's face it, who else could keep order in a place like this?"

But they should still give Northern Ireland back to the Irish.

I’ve been questioning why people in California don’t punch their lotto ticket. While the top of the market has been missed, the boat hasn’t so long as sellers aren’t greedy. If your $1.5 million dollar cracker shack will only sell for $1.4 million now, just kick yourself in the rear end for being irrationally stubborn, and take a $600k profit instead of $700k.

FuckTheMainstreamMedia says

I’ve been questioning why people in California don’t punch their lotto ticket. While the top of the market has been missed, the boat hasn’t so long as sellers aren’t greedy. If your $1.5 million dollar cracker shack will only sell for $1.4 million now, just kick yourself in the rear end for being irrationally stubborn, and take a $600k profit instead of $700k.

Imagine sold at the top of the housing market in 1989

Imagine sold at the top of the housing market in 2006

Imagine sold at the top of the housing market in 2022

Where will housing prices be in 2038? 🤔

Patrick says

But they should still give Northern Ireland back to the Irish.

No, they should expel anybody with an Irish Passport back to the Republic. If you want Irish citizenship, take Irish, not British council housing and welfare. And in fairness, pay Irish taxes. Abandoning Ulster would be prime British abandonment behavior sadly as usual.

Rev. Ian Paisley was ahead of his time.

That being said, Norn Iron is SCREAMING for a combined Catholic-Protestant conservative party against abortion and LGBTQ.

DooDahMan says

How British let one million Indians die in famine. (19th century)

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-36339524?source=patrick.net

Though we only have prose records, famines were normal in Africa, India, and Asia and had been normal in Europe until about a century before, when they rapidly became rare.

Prior to BRITISH census and record keeping, we have no firm numbers for pre-British famines in those places, so it's a bad comparison.

DooDahMan says

However, British national ships prevented aid from other nations, thus causing further death and starvation.

The potato blight effected Poland and the Baltics and other parts of the UK as well, it was not confined to Ireland and many starved there as well. Many Irish went to Glasgow and that's a whole Scots-Irish tale of it's own.

While the British kept records, it's not like Ireland was full of digital scales and somebody said "Sheesh, we're a week into the harvest and look at these low numbers we're tallying". It still took weeks to realize a problem was there. And again, other potato-dependent nations experienced a famine as well and you saw a migration spike from Central and Eastern Europe to the US in the 1840s.

It also fueled riots and revolutions across 1840s Europe, since the Potato replaced the Turnip at that point as a staple food. There were also the Corn Laws that benefited "High Farming" in England versus Peasant crops and the common lands (which were never in "Crisis", but well managed for 1000+ years, until High Farmers needed the efficicency excuse to take over the property for a song). British Corn Laws not only hurt the Irish, but the average English and Welshman as well - prohibited the import of cereals to subsidize the "High Farmer".

FuckTheMainstreamMedia says

I’ve been questioning why people in California don’t punch their lotto ticket. While the top of the market has been missed, the boat hasn’t so long as sellers aren’t greedy. If your $1.5 million dollar cracker shack will only sell for $1.4 million now, just kick yourself in the rear end for being irrationally stubborn, and take a $600k profit instead of $700k.

Because there is currently no available housing in other states...

When does Redfin and Zillow start to show a drop?

My primary residence shows $120k higher this month than last.

During the potato famine, Ireland was a net exporter of food. The reason why the Irish were so dependent on potatoes is that they weren't allowed to kill the cows (which were exported to England). It was strictly potatoes, milk, eggs, cockles, dillisk and the occasional chicken.

In the most extreme phases of the blight, the English paid Irish to perform public works, which involved tearing up the roads (because improving the roads was against fair trade).

The Irish were enslaved for several hundred years under the English. The only ones who suffered longer were the various Indian peoples under the Islamic conquest of India. All the Sultan films, etc. show wealth that was looted from temples and bought by the trade of millions of slaves from that region.

BayArea says

When does Redfin and Zillow start to show a drop?

My primary residence shows $120k higher this month than last.

If I have to guess, after this summer. The Fed is talking about a couple more rate increases in May and June. This will put a dampen on the housing market. Next year will be a plateau year and timber after that if I have to make a bet/guess.

I rarely look at real estate websites.
Today I was curious and saw a place "$100,000 price reduction."
Maybe it was just a seller who was told to adjust it by a realtor.
The scramble for house ownership won't stop as long as immigrants come and find work.
Ask yourself in the rat race; are you faster than the other rats? If so, you win the race.

Hop this contradiction is not a joke,
Flood Factor: Minimal - This property is unlikely to flood over the next 30 years.
About Climate Risk: Most homes have some risk of natural disasters, and may be impacted by climate change due to rising temperatures and sea levels.
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Cupertino/20239-NW-Sq-95014/home/1531059?source=patrick.net
Status: Cumming soon!
Lot Size1,344 Sq. Ft.
Total Sq. Ft.: 1,487 (2b/2ba)
Hoa Dues: 423
Est. Mo. Payment$9,138

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Los-Altos/915-St-Joseph-Ave-94024/home/1364924?source=patrick.net
$21,143 per month
+$76K over list price of $4.00M
Current Property Tax: $2,830 (1978 Prop 13 effect) vs ~$48K (17 times!) for the new owner

Prices do not appear to be cooling down yet. Even above average folks can not afford these prices. Or the some communities are financially segregated with so many entrepreneurs and executives.
In general its really tough if gov keep printing $Ts and spending they somehow appear one way the other, we pay in the form of inflation an indirect stealth tax.

Timing the market is called gambling on the basis of hunches, trends and gossip. It has been shown time and again that timing cannot predict the absolute peaks, valleys or black swans (gray swans for that matter) in a way that can be meaningfully utilized by armchair investors. However, dumb luck is nice when you get it.

Now, direct market manipulation and insider trading that's another thing. That's where most money is made.

Blue says

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Los-Altos/915-St-Joseph-Ave-94024/home/1364924?source=patrick.net
$21,143 per month
+$76K over list price of $4.00M
Current Property Tax: $2,830 (1978 Prop 13 effect) vs ~$48K (17 times!) for the new owner

Pay $4M to live next to the freeway? No thanks.

Tri valley is still on fire, home prices rising every month.

Interesting considering 30yr fixed rates are already up nearly 2 full points at the major banks since the 2021 bottom of about 2.5%.

Eman says

Pay $4M to live next to the freeway? No thanks.

That looks so much like the house of a guy I knew in Los Altos. However, his house had a nice view of the San Andreas fault line.

Crunch, snap!

Eman says

Blue says

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Los-Altos/915-St-Joseph-Ave-94024/home/1364924?source=patrick.net
$21,143 per month
+$76K over list price of $4.00M
Current Property Tax: $2,830 (1978 Prop 13 effect) vs ~$48K (17 times!) for the new owner

Pay $4M to live next to the freeway? No thanks.

Totally agree… I can’t imagine paying that kind of money to live near an interstate. My experience with living and working in tech here in the Bay Area is that usually younger couples aren’t as turned off by freeway living and are more likely to fall in love with the kitchen and ignore the freeway until they learn later that it was a mistake.

For me, living next to a freeway is completely out of the question when house shopping. It’s not even a consideration.

I was invited to dinner in Dublin, CA. It was an old college roommate of my wife who bought a home right near the 680 with her husband. The yard fence/wall was about 50ft from the highway. It was shocking, felt like we were yelling over a nascar race. I don’t get it.

Market timing a home sale. Oh boy.

BayArea says

I was invited to dinner in Dublin, CA. It was an old college roommate of my wife who bought a home right near the 680 with her husband. The yard fence/wall was about 50ft from the highway. It was shocking, felt like we were yelling over a nascar race. I don’t get it.

Maybe they got it for a great price. That was likely the main appeal. Someone will buy it for the right discount regardless if it’s next to the freeway, in the hood, or a former murder scene. I’ve seen quite a bit in this biz.

I used to live next to an interstate highway, as a renter. Could hit the highway with the garden hose. It was loud as F. Even indoors the road noise is constant, but step outside or open a window and it’s practically like being at a race track, had to yell to hold a conversation. And one night there was even a crash, car slammed into a wall, fire lit up the sky, saws and jaws of life. Let’s just say not much sleep that night. One day we got 14 inches of snow, and for a few sweet hours no one was on that highway, it was paradise! But back loud as F the next day. After that I don’t even want to live within a half mile to a mile of a busy road. Road noise is just disgusting.

Eman says

Pay $4M to live next to the freeway? No thanks.

May be this could be the reason this house is on discounted price. Price/Sq.Ft.$1,463
compare to the one a bit away from freeway.
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Los-Altos/927-Aura-Way-94024/home/1630042?source=patrick.net
$3,195,000 $16,895/mo 3b/2.5Ba 1,412 Sq Ft, Price/Sq.Ft.$2,263

Looked above listing (915 Saint Joseph Ave) one more time, its interesting that the price went up 2.4 times in 3 days!
Mar 24, 2022 Listed $3,998,000
Mar 21, 2022 Listed $1,648,000

I believe some of you who live in south bay still get fliers from used home sales people that saying 'address ...' paid some crazy numbers like 0.5mil more than asking price. I wonder who believe this kind of stuff or this is their best marketing campaign.

DooDahMan says

DAMN, I KIND OF MISSED THE BOAT

It would be OK if it's the Titanic.

Eman says

Pay $4M to live next to the freeway? No thanks.

Hey, the payment is only $21,132 per month, after you put $800K down.

See https://www.redfin.com/CA/Los-Altos/915-St-Joseph-Ave-94024/home/1364924?source=patrick.net

Patrick says

Hey, the payment is only $21,132 per month, after you put $800K down.

$29,494/mo - same used home sales woman put two at the same payments
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Cupertino/21841-Alcazar-Ave-95014/home/1418086?source=patrick.net
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Cupertino/10047-Crescent-Rd-95014/home/1293440?source=patrick.net
I know both properties do get reasonable daily dust from Kaiser and Lehigh cement plant trucks on foothill express to serve bay area construction sites where the mercury in the air claimed to be ~600% EPA levels after substantial reduction during the last few years after constant fight by hypocrite elites. Last month "City" decided to "buy the quarry" to be able to shut it down so that cement will be transported from out side of the area from 100s of miles down to pollute even more that hypocrite elites do not care. I had a hard time fighting on nextdoor particularly with Karens from keep the plants operational and the keep the jobs. Their argument is, it pollutes and affects home prices and for jobs they do not care. Now the "less pollution" could be a reason the prices are going up around.

Just wait til folks figure out they are indeed making more land (SB9 lot split). Feeling for the recent buyer in my hood who closed for over $800 /sq.ft. for a duplex. Buckle up!

I follow the 30yr conforming interest rates from the big banks.

7mo ago, the rate was 2.75%
Last month it was 3.75%
Today it’s 4.5% at WF and 4.875% at Union Bank

This is the fastest mortgage rate hike in RE history. Fed hasn’t responded yet so this is all in anticipation of the rate hikes.

I’m not seeing the market responding but expect it has to with a 2pt increase in a very short period of time.

We pay about $1,000/yr. $500k policy, $500k liability and an additional $1M liability because we have a pool. Didn't realize it was so high for others. We do get tornados. We can get extreme flooding. And little known to people we actually have a major fault line here in IL. The New Madrid fault line. I've been awake for 2-3 earthquakes that you can feel even up in N. IL.

I'm far enough away from the fault, but we could still get a 5 where I'm at. The ones I felt were 2-3 (if I recall correctly), but you did notice them. I guess technically I'm in a cheap insurable area of the country. Hail storms are bad for roofing, but overall I'm in a very low risk area for a total loss payout.

Nightclub, Saturday night, 2am closing, club goers packing the street… I have no idea what could have happened here.

By the way, many people were shot. Authorities are asking for the public’s help to capture the shooter(s). But they won’t give out the description to help the public with this task lol

What a joke. I guess we know who did it.

Do not go to or live in cities. My 2¢. It's only going to get worse. My CPD friends are retiring at the earliest possible time and moving to more rural departments. Crime in cities is going to be nasty and has been for the last 1-2 years. Chicago is more dangerous than an actual war zone like Afghanistan before we withdrew, half assed.

Right before last crash up in the mountains near Tamarack ski resort, Idaho on the opposite side of the lake E. where we have a couple of
properties a neighbor was asking 440k+/- for his shack, not far from the lake but not on the lake and got an all cash offer for 415K and turned it down.
The end result was he ended up selling it for the 240K range. My #s are probably off a bit but very much in the ball park..

The moral is: "Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered"

BayArea says

Authorities are asking for the public’s help to capture the shooter(s). But they won’t give out the description to help the public with this task lol

“it was a person” what more do you need? practically a give away.

I got the highest deductible off-the-shelf policy. I think it's $3,000. We should only have these policies for big claims anyway, not nickel and dime sh*t.

The premium for our small single story late 1960's sh*tbox in San Jose is just about exactly $1000. According to ®ealtor websites the home is worth about exactly $1.0 M, but it's all the land. I think the dwelling replacement is something like $300k.

Two years ago, before all the wildfires, the premium was $600.

And of course, homeowners policies in California don't cover earthquake damage. That requires a separate policy with a $1500 premium. The earthquake policies are brokered by the agents, but underwritten by the state. The standard earthquake policy has a $30,000 deductible, and does not cover living expenses.

Welcome to California, homies.

I'll be staying about a block away from the shooting the week after next for a conference.

socal2 says

I'll be staying about a block away from the shooting the week after next for a conference.

Cool story bro 😎

if someone falls it ain’t my fault. insurance companies now sell using fear tactics