patrick.net

Fortwaynemobile says

if someone falls it ain’t my fault

True, but, depending on where you live, a court may hit you with a $250k civil judgement. An umbrella plan is like pre-purchasing a team of lawyers who will get out front to protect the insurance company's $500k before you have to get involved. You're pre-purchasing a legal defense.

The same argument can be made about getting only minimum car liability insurance or getting heftier liability coverage. You could afford the $30k minimum required liability out of pocket, but you want the insurance company to fight for you if needed, so you get the $100k plan. Umbrella raises your car liability as well as home liability coverage, by the way.

As far as car comprehensive and collision, the maximum loss is limited to the car's book value. For me, I usually get the full coverage for the first 6 months and then drop. If I haven't crashed by then, I'm probably fine. It's not like the insurance company greatly lowers my premiums after the first 6 months. My current car is the only exception, as I feel the risk (of vandalism) is far greater than the insurance company estimates.

A 30% decline in the S&P 500 index fund VFINX takes us back to June 2020.

A 20% decline takes us back to November 2020.

DooDahMan says

No better in Florida.

I would go self insured in Florida, after hurricane proofing the house. I would not buy anyplace that would flood (and would have a crawlspace to make sure it doesn't get into the house as well).

DooDahMan says

unexpected things sometimes happen with pets

I have car insurance policy through Geico. Should I buy umbrella policy through Geico or find some other insurer?

It’s not fair to say what’s in the title of this thread without also pointing out what happened to Las Vegas just before that 10yrs.

Vegas was one of the hardest hit cities in the USA.

Las Vegas was waaaaay undervalued in 2012.

And yes prices will come down from where they currently are, at least in real terms.

As a former Nevada resident who "cashed-in" in this crazy market, you have to be careful with places like Vegas. In terms of volatility, Las Vegas tends to be near the top of the list when there are market corrections.

Definitely a great time to sell, pretty much anywhere, at the moment.

Goran_K says

Las Vegas tends to be near the top of the list when there are market corrections.

Why would you say that is?

Goran_K says

Las Vegas tends to be near the top of the list when there are market corrections.

Why would you say that is?

zzyzzx says

I would not buy anyplace that would flood (and would have a crawlspace to make sure it doesn't get into the house as well).

In coastal Va, you cannot build in a flood zone unless the house is built to take 4 feet of water with NO damage. How this is done is typically having the garage under the house, constructed of block or poured. This does make a few steps to climb, though.

When I had rental property, I had a $1million umbrella policy that cost about $320 per year. The cost of the umbrella policy factors in lifestyle. For example, it will increase if you have a jet ski, or hobbies like skydiving. The umbrella policy will also require that you maintain certain minimum coverage on your home and auto policies.

Umbrella Insurance... For when you absolutely positively want to be fucked out of every cent you have.

Has anyone ever met someone that managed to successfully file a claim on an Umbrella insurance policy?

I've never met anyone that ever benefited from Gap Insurance.

Hircus says

No, but if someone were to step in you house, and fell through the carpet into the basement

The funny thing about Florida home insurance polices, that the banks require you to have on your home for the mortgage.
It covers all of the accidental stuff where people might sue you, but wont cover sink holes, meteor strikes, flood water damage unless you add flood insurance on your policy.

SunnyvaleCA says

True, but, depending on where you live, a court may hit you with a $250k civil judgement.

If someone came to my house and got injured due MY negligence, I would sell my house to make it right.
But if some opportunist came over and faked a slip and fall to sue me, and forced me to sell my house.
Let's just say that would be their last grift. I would be looking a gun not an insurance policy.
I'm not a gazilionare and work hard for what I do have. If I were rich and had lots of assets worth going after, I might view insurance differently.

My health insurance wanted and literally asked me to sue my neighbor when I fractured my heel on their property. No joke. They said their insurance would pay your deductible and all their costs.

I said, so you're asking me to fuck over my friends and neighbors who will pay a higher premium forever because I was playing a frisbee game with no shoes on? That's their fault? Told them to fuck off, I'm not doing that to friends when it was my fault. I probably lost $5k from that. It wasn't their fault though.

WineHorror1 says

Goran_K says

Las Vegas tends to be near the top of the list when there are market corrections.

Why would you say that is?

I call Las Vegas a canary market. Speculators tend to enter and exit quickly to take advantage of the market, and there are "less" organic transactions from real owner occupant buyers (though that has increased as well). This tended to be the case due to low cost/easier market entry, and high chance of profit. Because of this, when the market swings one way, or the other, you tend to get easy appreciation, or lots of investors exiting causing depreciation as we saw in 2008-2013.

From 2001 to 2007, it's estimated that out of the $35 billion or so in real estate transactions, about 50% were investor initiated. I suspect when all is said and done, 2015 to 2022 is going to look very similar, if not more heavily stilted towards investor transactions.

Because of market conditions, some investors have turned from short term hold to long term hold to take advantage of the market appreciation over the past 5 years. But if appreciation begins to falter, or even stagnate, look for investors to start cashing in, and volatility to begin appearing again as it did in 2008. I won't call it a crash since the catalyst won't be a credit crunch, but I definitely see prices softening a lot once investors start to cash in.

They are going to engineer a housing market crash is my bet. Most people have most of their equity in homes, I think that's about to be wiped out, along with the stock market, at the same time. Biden might just be a fall guy for all this shit.

DooDahMan says

When he starts to change his tune, it is time to pay attention since he has a stellar track record on being right.

You got half of that right. Logan is like Dykstra. In a Bull market, everyone looks like an investment genius.

I see two categories of classic mistakes among those stories:

• People buying fixer-uppers that have no skills or experience in fixing things. Relatively minor problems instantly become expensive emergencies. For example, a constantly-flushing toilet means a call for a plumber because they don't know how to turn off the water and they don't know how to buy and install a $15 flapper valve.

• People who bought without carefully considering the neighborhood or neighbors. Buying a condo is always going to be a crap shoot with respect to the neighbors. People should visit the street at several different times of the day (and night) to get a feel for what living there would be like.

Tenpoundbass says

If someone came to my house and got injured due MY negligence, I would sell my house to make it right.
But if some opportunist came over and faked a slip and fall to sue me, and forced me to sell my house.
Let's just say that would be their last grift. I would be looking a gun not an insurance policy.

There's a lot of space between those two extremes. Plus, seems like a few hundred dollars a year is better than a murder #1 charge.

gabbar says

I have car insurance policy through Geico. Should I buy umbrella policy through Geico or find some other insurer?

You probably get a discount if you go with all one company. Also, since the coverage is somewhat overlapping (and the umbrella is contingent on the correct standard coverage), splitting between two different companies could cause the companies to point at each other for a claim and leave you in the lurch.

DooDahMan says

We didn’t hire a realtor,

If you already have a seller and buyer set up, there is NO need for a realtor.

SunnyvaleCA says

I see two categories of classic mistakes among those stories:

• People buying fixer-uppers that have no skills or experience in fixing things.

• People who bought without carefully considering the neighborhood

Sort of along your second category:

People who parachuted in buying a place in a city or region they never lived in, instead of renting for a year or so to get their own local knowledge and perspective.

From BACAH we have
• People who parachuted in buying a place in a city or region they never lived in, instead of renting for a year or so to get their own local knowledge and perspective.

I'll add another general problem:
• People buying their first house — there's a lot you learn about homebuying, financing, etc. from the first house. Plus you learn about what you want and what you don't want.

When all these financial and real estate investment vehicles come running for bailouts when the market normalizes, the answer should be:

"Issue more stock, after all, you brought much of it back. That's how you can raise money. Or issue some bonds."

When will they run out of water?

And another two categories, though really just the same category. Sort of out of vogue during nowadays' federal reserve moneyprinting, but might make a comeback:

- folks with adjustable mortgages;

- folks with balloon payment mortgages.

Sunol Grade at 4:15 PM Monday. Green is clear. Definitely recession time.

Tri Valley reporting increasing numbers of organized burglar groups stalking homes and garages, mail thefts, people being approached for scams, third worlders and ghetto snipes knocking on doors and even hit and runs. Thank you, Joe and Dems, for all that compassion at the borders.

B.A.C.A.H. says

And another two categories, though really just the same category. Sort of out of vogue during nowadays' federal reserve moneyprinting, but might make a comeback:

- folks with adjustable mortgages;

- folks with balloon payment mortgages.

I think that's the category of:
• Buying a house that you can't afford by using risky mortgage schemes.

DooDahMan says

we found out that the central AC was basically just for decoration

That's something that should have been included in what is called "disclosures", but then they didn't use a realtor or apparently anyone who knew about buying a home.

Goran_K says

As a former Nevada resident who "cashed-in" in this crazy market, you have to be careful with places like Vegas. In terms of volatility, Las Vegas tends to be near the top of the list when there are market corrections.

Definitely a great time to sell, pretty much anywhere, at the moment.

Dude, welcome back. Where the hell you been?

porkchopexpress says

Goran_K says

As a former Nevada resident who "cashed-in" in this crazy market, you have to be careful with places like Vegas. In terms of volatility, Las Vegas tends to be near the top of the list when there are market corrections.

Definitely a great time to sell, pretty much anywhere, at the moment.

Dude, welcome back. Where the hell you been?

Porkchop!!!

Been a while. I sold my Nevada property and moved to Texas to pursue another business interest. I love Texas. I didn’t wear a mask or get jabbed for the past 20 months. No one gives a shit where I live.

I did get COVID, slept for 3 days and was back on the treadmill by day 4.

HunterTits says

Honestly, that chick turns me on. I got a blowjob from a girl that looked a bit like her at my 10 year high school reunion. She was a friend of a classmate I used to hit on all the time to no avail. Oh well, got her friend instead. After the BJ, I went to the bed next to the one we just did the business in and banged that chic. Crazy times.

If you can't fix it or figure it out you should never buy/own a home in my opinion or make a shit load of money. My HVAC guy tried to fuck me over. Installed a new furnace. He didn't hook up the AC low voltage wiring to the condenser. So it got warm and I'm like WTF. Opened up the furnace and saw the wire dangling there. Got the manual and did a quick online search and AC was working 30 minutes later. Likely would have been a $200 service call to connect 3-4 wires that he intentionally didn't hook up.

The only thing I won't do, but could, is roofing and painting. Fuck that shit. Painting is pure misery even with the right equipment. Drywall taping kind of falls into the category as well.

Property tax, maintenance, etc can be a shocker to new first time homeowners.

Just a few months ago I replaced the entire HVAC system in my home with new ducts and abatement. The price tag of that was shocking (even after pricing shopping and getting 7-8 quotes for comparison).

BayArea says

Property tax, maintenance, etc can be a shocker to new first time homeowners.

I know so foreigners who were shopping houses here and didn't realize property tax is forever until you die. What a surprise that would be when the first bill comes!

DooDahMan says

Sacramento police announced the first arrest Monday of a suspect

White supremacist.

Exxon flags biggest profit in 13 years due to surging oil prices

(Bloomberg) -- Exxon Mobil Corp. signaled its highest profit since 2008 as Russia’s war in Ukraine upended global commodity markets.

Exxon’s announcement that first-quarter results may have reached almost $11 billion augurs booming profits across the oil industry as trade sanctions, shipping disruptions and surging demand strain supply lines.

The windfall doesn’t come without risks, however. Political leaders are under pressure to alleviate sky-high energy prices and the specter of shortages, and some already have accused oil drillers of gouging and profiteering.

U.S. President Joe Biden last week pleaded with the industry to reinvest profits in new wells to help plug the supply gap from shunned Russian crude. At the same time, he warned of punishing financial penalties for companies slow-walking projects involving federally owned oil prospects.

Exxon said Monday that first-quarter results may have been as much as $2 billion higher than earnings during the final three months of 2021, when the company raked in $8.8 billion, according to a filing.

Surging oil prices were the main driver, with natural gas and fatter refining margins also contributing. International crude futures touched a 14-year high of almost $140 a barrel during the quarter.

Separately, Exxon formally approved the $10 billion Yellowtail development off the coast of Guyana after receiving government and regulatory approvals. The project is the fourth and largest in an area known as the Stabroek Block, and is expected to pump about 250,000 barrels a day starting in 2025.

Exxon also disclosed that exiting the Sakhalin-1 oil development in Russia’s Far East may trigger a writedown of as much as $4 billion. The company recently pledged to quit Russia due to international sanctions and what the company’s Chief Executive Officer Darren Woods described as the nation’s “needless destruction” in Ukraine.

Exxon shares fell 0.7% to at $82.55 11:23 a.m. in New York.

https://www.chron.com/business/oil/article/Exxon-May-Take-4-Billion-Writedown-on-Its-Exit-17056524.php?source=patrick.net

1. Democrats shutdown the majority of small businesses in blue states.
2. Make "special rules" that only big box stores like Costco and Walmart etc and gas stations can remain open.
3. Make sure this happens on and off for 20 months.
4. Corporate Profit!