patrick.net

Belarus has 70,000 soldiers?
Even if they somehow managed to scrape up that many, they will be worse than Russian draftees.

jykiodfgr says

Goodbye border with Poland.

I would also expect the Polish army to be in Minsk in a couple of days if Belarus is dumb enough to is invade Ukraine.

If that red L were at the bottom, the jet stream would look like a saggy boob.

Just keeping my priorities straight.

Too much American and German tech transfers to China.

China might sell Russia parts and bullets, but they ain't gonna go after their customers.

China is facing a major demographic crunch and diminishing returns. China is in debt up to it's ass, too. The difference is the world need to prop up the US because the world holds so many dollars; whereas RMB is not held much at all outside China

Ceffer says

If that red L were at the bottom, the jet stream would look like a saggy boob.

Just keeping my priorities straight.

Yes, but leave the red L where it is, and it looks more like a perky boob.

jykiodfgr says

It's not just the newly mobilized either, Russian military proper can now be relocated to the newly Russian territories so we are looking at up to a million new troops for the upcoming Ukrainian operation.

Not sure I'd consider that a win or Russia. I don't care about Ukraine, but Russia has looked weak as fuck. Really no disputing that. Human resources dying in a senseless war is not logical. US has done the same. 1M troops to take Ukraine though? I'm not sure how much weaker you can look. The west will just send in even more weapons and massacring 10's and maybe 100's of thousands of Russians.

Also factor in even one accidental incursion into Poland the Russians are toast. And yes, it will probably result in European War III. We'll be involved, but nothing will happen here. Chinese will buy energy, but they are watching this and likely realizing how weak they are. So this won't be a world war and we've never had one. It's classic Eastern Euro bull shit with Russia. Until it comes to our hemisphere it cannot be labeled a world war.

Well, they won't ALL freeze to death. Neanderthal genes will come to the fore and save some of them.

They're waiting for the ground to freeze. No slogging through muddy bogs, and Russia is golden. Ukraine is fooked. Russia has said over and over they are in no hurry.

Russia would have to shut off the border of Ukraine with all the other countries like Poland, Hungary, Romania, etc.

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80 degrees Fahrenheit at 12:21 pm in Florida panhandle. That's about the average temperature. It will get up to around 84 degrees today.

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The west is not faring as bad as recently as far as drought. The headwaters of the Colorado River are now in very low drought areas.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

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Poland is drooling to bite off their own chunk of Ukraine to extend NATO boundary. A good part of western Ukriane might even bail to Poland voluntarily.

cisTits says

Looks more like a testicle...

The jet stream is teabagging America.

Ceffer says

Poland is drooling to bite off their own chunk of Ukraine to extend NATO boundary. A good part of western Ukriane might even bail to Poland voluntarily.

It will be interesting. Anything west of the Dnipro (or Dniper) River was very anti Russian as far as wanting to be controlled by Moscow.

Now I suspect even areas to the east of the river are that way given the atrocities caused by the Russian invasion.

I wonder how far east that Poland will try to annex or take over.

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Capping energy prices is a great way to get hyper inflation of fiat currency.
Shorting the Euro is a great idea right now.

This is good timing for russia to make certain moves - us election season is imminent.

jykiodfgr says

LOL I told you they are all going to freeze to death

Who is they? It's a first world country. Shut the gas off completely. Sure some poor will die, but most people have $300-$2k jackets that can keep them warm at -10ºF. Gear to stay alive if it gets cold. Sleeping bags. Blankets. Fire places. It's not fucking Siberia.

I don't know. It's clear many here are not used to the cold. Or how to deal with it. It's not a big deal. It sucks, but you don't die. It's 35ºF here where I'm at in IL today. I'm walking about in shorts and a long sleeve. No jacket. Cold is easy to deal with outside of pipes and plumbing. Even that isn't a big deal. Warm showers could be impossible, but who cares. Just don't shower or bath. Humans did it far longer than one cold winter.

This freeze to death thing is overblown. Happens all the time in Chicago, NYC, the Northeast. Yes people die from cold. Rarely. Heat is usually the issue. Think about that in the summer during a heat wave when all the nat gas power plants are short. That's when people die.

ad says

Will they try to shut down the border between Ukraine and Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Hungary, etc. ?

They can try, but I don't see how they can possibly succeed.

Lol! Cavemen survived out of every winter. This is a good reminder to stop wearing summer clothes in winter unless wants to provide Darwin is right. Does it need a rocket scientist.

jykiodfgr says

Beijing urges Chinese citizens to leave Ukraine

I thought they already left right after day 1 of the Russian invasion.

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Yeah, I've slept outside with no tent in -10F in a decent (not super elite expensive but not generic brand either) 4-season sleeping bag with long johns under synthetic Patagonia ski pants, heavy flannel shirt.. Also wool socks, gloves, and a jacket. After a few minutes I had to toss out the jacket and eventually the heavy flannel because I was sweating my balls off. I put my camp on the lee side of a rock but there were 20mph icy blasts all night. Layering is key, and as long as you stay dry (including removing layers if you start to sweat) and if you get out of the wind, you'll be fine at temperatures much lower than -10F

I survived.

The real problem might be freezing pipes if people don't empty the lines.

jykiodfgr says

I hate that my taxdollar is being used to pay for these shills. Thank God you guys are all vaxxed and will be dead soon.

I'm proudly pureblood, not one jab.

WookieMan says

Yes people die from cold. Rarely. Heat is usually the issue.

Yes, remember a few years back when France had 10,000 deaths during a heat wave? You never hear about big die offs due to a cold spell.

jykiodfgr says

No wonder China is evacuating out of Ukraine.

Based on what? I see a map with many colors on it. Why should that mean anything to Chinese nationals in the country?

I hate this sort of thing. It reminds me of the unlabeled chart on Zerohedge with nothing more than "the chart speaks for itself", when it DIDN'T.

socal2 says

Imagine trying to extol the virtues and achievements of the Russian military after the last half year of complete and utter embarrassment at the hands of the much smaller and weaker Ukraine that is literally right next door.

Dude, the United States spent 20 years in Afghanistan with no visible gains, and left them with 80 billion dollars of equipment which has been disassembled and studied in China and Russia.

You're comparing a sewage pit with a toxic dump. Neither is very impressive.

Russia is in absolutely no hurry to win this war, and the United States wants to drag this out. Even if Russia used all their resources and military to over-run Ukraine, and I think they could have, they'd have to deal with an insurgency the US and NATO would have funded for years. Instead, they've decide to let Europe starve for lack of energy resources and let the US spend more money on "aid" than all of Russia spends on their own military per year.

This will go on for at least until spring, but I expect I wouldn't be surprised if it went on for years. It costs Russia money and human resources (blood) to continue this, but it's less than what Ukraine pays for in blood, and the US is approaching instability with China as a result of this.

NATO may no longer exist at the end of this, in fact the EU may be gone, and the US may find itself economically isolated. That would be worst case scenario though, but it would put Russia in #2 position, and China in #1.

cisTits says

I am sure that will work just AOK...like all other temporary price controls have.

When O'Hare Airport was built there was a "temporary" toll put on the highway running by it. It's still in place.

jykiodfgr says

HeadSet says

You never hear about big die offs due to a cold spell.

That's because the media don't report it. If you look at total deaths you'll see a huge dieoff every winter.

This winter in Europe is going to be in the history books.

Any links? I've never heard of mass casualty events from cold. My SIL is living in Germany currently. Nobody cares. They're not worried. Pipes/Plumbing are the biggest worry as I and others have said. You don't have to shower, but even a two minute cold shower is actually good for you. People in cold areas have clothing for it. Gear. Even morons. It's why as a dude I have a full ass closet here in IL. Winter and Summer. It's not complicated.

Patrick says

When O'Hare Airport was built there was a "temporary" toll put on the highway running by it. It's still in place.

After they got caught for corruption in the 90's, the tollway that is, the roads are meticulously maintained now besides when under construction. As an adult that makes good wages it's 1,000% worth it. I pay I think $5 one way to O'hare or Midway. I did that daily when I worked in the city. So $10/day roughly. Maybe a touch less, can't remember since I don't go that way often and it's all digital.

A well run toll road system is great. It's when the fraud and kickbacks come in where shit work is done. Much more oversight here in IL surprisingly. Drive the Indiana or Ohio toll road system... you'll need a new suspension. And you might as well haul a dumpster to pick up all the trash on that highway (I-80) as well. Have to deal with that shit to go to Fort Wayne, IN this winter for a show. Shit, I need to figure out where I'm staying now that I think about it.

With a low enough price cap, the heavy industry will still be able to operate normally with the reserves they have in storage...until suddenly there ain't any more gas cause nobody had to ration it.

cisTits says

Western firms that pulled out and took their technical peeps with them.

Like what western firms? Name a few. I'd be interested.

Maybe they fear the gas theyre currently getting from russia will stop for whatever reason? Like maybe due to a pipeline suddenly exploding again.

But I'd put my money on it being strategic pressure, like maybe russia told them to stop supplying europe w/ gas...

Russia has about 90,000 dead of wounded so far. These were their best guys, and they are retreating.
The Russian military behavior reflects primitive WW1 tactics; they have zero coordination of air, naval and land forces.
Sending new guys to the front will not change the dynamic; Russia needed a military with 500,000 men and western modern military tactics, which they didn't have and won't have.
Hitler made many strategic blunders, but he almost invented modern warfare; "blitzkrieg" was a coordinated attack with air and land forces moving quickly.
Russia has no air superiority over Ukraine today. 200,000 more unwilling guys at the front cannot change this.
Russia has no technological superiority either; the weapons provided to Ukraine are superior. HIMARS, Javelins, Starstreak, etc. are effective. Russia stuff is about 1/2 as effective.
The fancier stuff Russia has is depleted and cannot be replaced; the embargo of some high tech components means Russia cannot resupply its army with some useful stuff.
Russia is now getting restless; the myth of Putin's popularity is bullshit. He's got a rabid base but most Russians either don't like him or tried to not even think about politics; now they're unhappy about being drafted to go to Ukraine for no reason they can understand.
I'm able to remember Vietnam and it was unpopular for a big reason; they were drafting guys.
There were marches "Hell no, we won't go!"
I recall after the draft unpopularity, they had a "lottery"; your birthday was in a lottery, and if you got a "low number" maybe you were going to have to go.
People can't seem to appreciate how unpopular being conscripted is; you're being forced to go somewhere to maybe die and you don't want to.
I'm curious to see how long Putin holds onto power; there is increasing unrest and guys in the Kremlin are probably pissed off but don't have the power or balls to make a move against a former KGB spy turned dictator.
Edit: I'm not sure how bright Putin is, but he is likely skilled at subterfuge and political intrigue.

clambo says

former KGB spy turned dictator.

KGB spy stuff is all Hollywood bullshit. Pumped up to make it seem like they knew what they are doing. Sure there were spies and they were conniving, but you can see with Ukraine they just don't have it. Russia is pussy. Think of the series Mad Men. Putin was likely drinking booze constantly and fine, killing people. That doesn't make him a smart person.

This is by far a worse conflict than the US in Iraq or Afghanistan as far as making sense. Hell Chicago is in a perpetual state of war over drugs and gang territory. Russia did not need to invade Ukraine for anything. They have energy. They have land. They control Crimea. For fucks sake buy a 1 mile swath of land and build a highway to Crimea. Ukraine should just go full ape shit and take out that bridge completely at this point. Russia is weak sauce and it's highly likely their nukes even work or are accurate. And yes, I also give zero shits about Ukraine. This whole thing is dumb.

WookieMan says

This is by far a worse conflict than the US in Iraq or Afghanistan as far as making sense.

Really? Iraq didn't have a weapons of mass destruction program before the war started, and that was the (given) reason for the war. What was the purpose of the Iraq War?

Afghanistan offered first to hand over binLaden provided the US would share evidence of his involvement with 9/11, the US refused, they later just offered to hand over binLaden, still the US refused. What was the purpose of the Afghanistan war?

Tell me how either made sense?

I do know that part of the reason for the Iraq War was to establish US military bases there and to prevent Hussein from moving to the Euro exclusively for oil trade. Afghanistan MAY have been in part for oil pipelines, but that's only rumor.

WookieMan says

Ukraine should just go full ape shit and take out that bridge completely at this point.

It really doesn't matter. I believe Russia already has a land bridge to it at this point. You know how they attacked the bridge? They got some patsy to drive a truck loaded with explosives across it, then they detonated it.

Still waiting for those worthless draftees to overrun Ukraine.

richwicks says

It really doesn't matter. I believe Russia already has a land bridge to it at this point. You know how they attacked the bridge? They got some patsy to drive a truck loaded with explosives across it, then they detonated it.

It does matter. The land is contested borderline land. There's not a free flow of commerce or whatever Russia wants to do with Crimea. Knock the bridge out with full military grade weapons and Russia is fucked. This has always been about Crimea since they annexed it. Russia is landlocked in the winter for the most part. Shipping goods/resources via water is the cheapest way possible. Can't easily do that through ice. Europe won't supposedly "freeze" as has been mentioned. Russia will.

This is why the supply chain is fucked up right now with China and Covid. It takes a while via water, but you can ship massive quantities of stuff. That's all Russia wants. They could have just negotiated that and bought the land. We see with their war machine they're inept. They didn't have the money. We're witnessing the downfall of Russia. They're not a global super power. They have gas and oil, that's it.

richwicks says

Really? Iraq didn't have a weapons of mass destruction program before the war started, and that was the (given) reason for the war. What was the purpose of the Iraq War?

I don't care about the reasons for those wars. Were they dumb? Yes. We can agree there. We also didn't take 7-8 months to grab contested land that's maybe the size of Indiana. Sure we didn't control 100% and lost troops along the way, but Russia is getting their asses handed to them by their next door neighbor. We controlled 2 countries at the same time across the globe. I've said I don't care the outcome, but ultimately Russia looks like it's failing. Not much dispute there. Long game maybe they prevail, not certain of that though either.

zzyzzx says

Still waiting for those worthless draftees to overrun Ukraine.

Drunk draftees.