patrick.net

bob2356 says

Maybe, just maybe we should let the gamblers go to bankruptcy court and put the government’s house in order. Fix social security (doable despite the naysayers), cut defense in half, go back to progressive taxation, stop going to war on credit, stop all bailouts and subsidies (why do we still have farm subsidies that 95% of go to large corporations by the way?), and live within our means. It would certainly be less disruptive than very high inflation or hyperinflation. This something for nothing mindset is the root of the problem, not the solution.

Amen.

uh, more like this (guess which one I am now?):

Not dorm buddies - COLLEGE buddies, as in friends that I made at college. We've been friends for many years now, but that's how I always refer to them. I'm in my early 30s.

Just like Patrick (and numerous others) I correctly predicted we would see DEFLATION as this gigantic mess came crashing down around us. I also predicted we'd see Congress safeguard the FDIC and the banking sector in general before they would save individuals, homedebtors for instance (they don't deserve it anyway). The public/military/federal/banking sector must be protected if we are to have/maintain any civilized society whatsoever, and I think that these things will fall LAST if a full-blown economic armageddon materializes. Of course, given my pessimistic outlook I also hold bullion - as a crisis hedge. Every doom-and-gloomer adores the yellow precious (think Lord of the Rings), and I'm no different. I view it as a form of insurance policy.

By "the Titanic going down" I mean the disappearance of the unsustainable lifestyles financed by artificial prosperity and skyrocketing debt so common from the 70s onward.

Do I think we'll have people running around eating each other in six months time? No. It is a possibility, however. We're already feeding 1 in 8 with foodstamps and millions more via UE checks with money we're borrowing. If we do something stupid (read this thread) and ruin our credit things would get real dicey real quick. I am certainly hoping things don't get that bad.

There are still MANY banks and insurance companies in this country that are in impeccable financial shape. Some of them have even been smart enough to buy billions in bullion.

I agree with Nomo, although I believe the recovery will be slow & painful.

I pee in the woods.

This site might be biased towards the downside, at least in terms of real estate, but I thought we could take a poll of forum users to see who is bullish, and who is bearish - on the economy in general.

No, it doesnt look very pretty. Some people keep barking comments regarding "innovation" and "it will come back, it always does". But i havent heard Route 128 coming back.

http://www.siliconbeat.com/2010/02/17/vanishing-public-companies-lead-to-the-incredible-shrinking-silicon-valley/

Vanishing Public Companies Lead To The Incredible Shrinking Silicon Valley

Posted by Chris O'Brien on February 17th, 2010

One of the most significant trends I’ve been watching over the past decade is the dramatic drop in public companies in Silicon Valley. Naturally, that number was artificially inflated during the dot-com bubble when it reached 417 in 2000. For our purposes, Silicon Valley includes San Mateo and Santa Clara counties, and the southern half of Alameda County.

But the number of public companies has dropped for nine straight years now. Even when IPOs briefly reappeared in 2006 and 2007, they weren’t enough to overcome the net loss of public companies through acquisitions or bankruptcy.

In 2008, the number had fallen to 261. We just updated our records and the latest figure is 241.

That’s not just less than the dot-com era, that’s well below the 315 public companies the valley had in 1994 when the Mercury News started keeping track.

mikey says

I pee in the woods.

I'm assuming that you're catholic, too?

schmitz_kris says

By “the Titanic going down” I mean the disappearance of the unsustainable lifestyles financed by artificial prosperity and skyrocketing debt so common from the 70s onward.

No offense, but if that's what "the Titanic going down" means to you, you're a bit of a drama queen.

Does a bear pee in the woods ? Is that the expression ?

I don't like to make negative predictions, or predictions in general. It messes me up, because then my desire to be right may influence some decisions.

MY biggest worries:

The baby boom. Not just the upcoming cost of their retirement, but also the fact that so many boomers haven't saved enough, so they won't be consuming with gusto any time soon.

The political environment. One of the ways that I could see us coming out of this would be with some exciting combination of government leadership in the form of investment in certain areas, and also major changes in how things are done in Washington on both the spending and the tax side. But sadly it's really hard to see our government doing the things that it needs to do (see health care).

So generally I'm fairly pessimistic for more than just a couple of years out.

I trade forex from home using an algorithm I invented. That's why I'm on the computer (and thus various forums) so darn much. It's Sunday night, but the market is open so I've been "working" for several hours already. I trade cable (GBP/USD) exclusively.

I actually love doing grunt physical labor as that's what I'm built/made for. I'm from a rural area in the middle of Minnesota where everybody's a farmer, but my parents had me go to college because I am "smart."

I am going to be volunteering at an organic farm where they don't even use machinery soon and plan on counting on agriculture as my escape plan if the economy truly goes MADMAX on us. If it doesn't, like I said I plan on being retired within 5-7 years or so.

marcus says

Does a bear pee in the woods ? Is that the expression ?

Is a bear catholic? Does the pope...

tell her that if she drills an itty bitty hole in that diamond plate it will drain the water away and cut down on rust

tatupu70 says

No offense, but if that’s what “the Titanic going down” means to you, you’re a bit of a drama queen

Americans are spoiled, entitled. They want their free money/wealth/lifestyle, and they want it NOW. If you think they're going to go back decades-wise in lifestyle easily, dream on. Only 1 car per household? Only half a dozen outfits per person in the family? Eating out once a month is considered A TREAT?

Americans are going to freak.

schmitz_kris says

Americans are spoiled, entitled. They want their free money/wealth/lifestyle, and they want it NOW. If you think they’re going to go back decades-wise in lifestyle easily, dream on. Only 1 car per household? Only half a dozen outfits per person in the family? Eating out once a month is considered A TREAT?
Americans are going to freak.

We'll have to agree to disagree. I think Americans are pretty adaptable and will do what it takes.

I have already made enough to technically retire, as I indicated in my post above. I've been using my methodology for many years now. If you think a person who is stupid or lazy can succeed at forex, you obviously have no clue about this market. I did heavy farm work for much of my childhood, and I will tell you trading the currency market is MUCH more demanding - not physically, but mentally. It IS work, just a different kind. It also involves going without sleep for extended periods, being "married" to your charts, etc. It's not exactly a glamourous existence all the time.

What do you consider "actually working?" Are all of these IT profesionals (many on the forum) who punch keystrokes all day "working" in your opinion or not?

schmitz_kris says

It IS work, just a different kind

Sorry, work aka "labor" produces new wealth, directly or indirectly, ie is a positive contribution to the economy. Parasitism is that which takes existing wealth (or claims to it). This may involve effort, but it is not work.

Bank robbery requires effort, too, but it's not work. Unless you're a sociopath.

The forex is essential for there to even BE a modern economy.

What do you propose, that we revert to using bullion exclusively in every country of the world for every single transaction?

Bap33 says

elliemae says

(10) Mikey, a very punny guy.

without a doubt the best I have ever seen at proper pun prolification.

Exquisitely profound perceptions, as always.

PS: I cannot accept any award due to my stance on the plight of the American Indian. However, I have a squaw on tap to refuse the award in person, if need be.

mikey says

Bap33 says

elliemae says

(10) Mikey, a very punny guy.

without a doubt the best I have ever seen at proper pun prolification.

Exquisitely profound perceptions, as always.
PS: I cannot accept any award due to my stance on the plight of the American Indian. However, I have a squaw on tap to refuse the award in person, if need be.

One more word & I start dancing & singing with Rob Lowe!

elliemae says

marcus says

Does a bear pee in the woods ? Is that the expression ?

Is a bear catholic? Does the pope…

Berry funny.

No need to act grizzly, Mikey.

Good stuff, thomas.wong.

Imagine that, only 241 publicly traded companies left in Silicon Valley

Some blogs support polls. Piggington.com is one of them, I think. That could be handy.

By poll I mean a graphic poll where you click and then see the results.

elliemae says

No need to act grizzly, Mikey.

Wish I had a camera. This is a Kodiak moment and it gives me pause.

We're polar opposites, I guess.

Well, koala you know.

going down ... down .... down .... to a "thud". We shall then see the real bad economic times that are needed to absorb the fake-ass free-lending growth from 96 to 2006.

I hope that silly Cal laws that outlaw the burning of wood in a house for heat will be ended when times get tuff.

justme says

By poll I mean a graphic poll where you click and then see the results.

hey ... "graphic poll" ..... Mikey, do your magic!

schmitz_kris says

The forex is essential for there to even BE a modern economy.

Yes, but retail's involvement in that market is de minimis. You may profit from the FX market's moves, but you do not make that market.

Day trading is just the equivalent of going to Vegas. No new wealth creation is being supported here, just redistribution between speculators.

Troy says

Yes, but retail’s involvement in that market is de minimis. You may profit from the FX market’s moves, but you do not make that market.

Thank you for that, Captain Obvious. A single assembly line worker does not make a car, either. Who cares?

I said trading forex was WORK, and it is. It involves a ton of research, studying, learning, experimentation, mastery of one's emotions, sticking to a plan, business decisions, etc. It's the same as running a small business. Of course it's SPECULATIVE. Life itself is a speculation.

Vegas is FAR easier than forex and is based purely on luck and guessing. There is no technical analysis, no fundamental analysis of market movements, trend following, etc. I don't think 95% of all Vegas visitors lose either.

schmitz_kris says

I don’t think 95% of all Vegas visitors lose either.

Probably closer to 100%

Bap33 says

justme says

By poll I mean a graphic poll where you click and then see the results.

hey … “graphic poll” ….. Mikey, do your magic!

What? And give folks the shaft?

schmitz_kris says

I said trading forex was WORK, and it is. It involves a ton of research, studying, learning, experimentation, mastery of one’s emotions, sticking to a plan, business decisions, etc. It’s the same as running a small business. Of course it’s SPECULATIVE. Life itself is a speculation.

Actually that sounds like texas hold 'em to me. You can say what you want to make yourself feel better about what you do, but you are adding nothing to society. You are basically playing poker.

Poker is a game of chance, luck. The currency markets move rhythmically, logically, fractally - they have an intelligence that can be tapped into and ascertained. What do you think, that banks spin a roulette wheel to decide which currencies to buy or sell, how much and when to do so?

Nomo, I don't think I made any reference to production by Americans in any of my posts. Tell me where I did so.

I am not fat. Most Americans are. FACT. I am not lazy. It's true that I don't work physically hard trading, but I work hard physically in many other areas of my life. I'm very athletic, lift weights, walk and ride my bike much of the time instead of drive, etc. Most Americans do not. We spend the most hours watching TV.

I would not personally recommend anything written by Kathy Lien. When I was studying and reading about the forex, I did it 100% online without purchasing any books or information. There is no reason to - it's all free. I also used to chat a lot with brokers during down/non-busy times - I learned a ton that way.

Get a job? I already volunteer. I would need access to the internet every two hours as well, and I don't know if many employers would allow that.

schmitz_kris says

Poker is a game of chance, luck. The currency markets move rhythmically, logically, fractally - they have an intelligence that can be tapped into and ascertained. What do you think, that banks spin a roulette wheel to decide which currencies to buy or sell, how much and when to do so?

Good poker players would heartily disagree with you there. You're betting against the other players, not the house. You are reading the faces and learning the betting routines of the other players and using that knowledge to your advantage. I think the analogy is very appropriate to what you do. In fact, I think there is more skill in poker than there is in currency trading.

Unless you engage in arbitrage opportunities, then I think you are gambling.

As I indicated in my post above, currency markets move on fundamental and technical principles, not by random chance. Sorry.

It is my personal opinion that arbitrage is for the unsophisticated and those with average IQ, you know, like Johnny E. Businessmajor, who drinks beer, watches Nascar and the like. Well, perhaps a slight bit above that, but not markedly.

Funny thing, I have never received a Form W-2G in my life.

marcus says

The baby boom. Not just the upcoming cost of their retirement, but also the fact that so many boomers haven’t saved enough, so they won’t be consuming with gusto any time soon.

I wouldn't so much worry about baby boomers. They mostly bought property and was able to refinance at a low interest rate. Their social security checks will cover them if they aren't rich from this real estate situation already. The ones needing to sell and downgrade were probably irresponsible and probably took out HELOCs. They do not need to sell. They rather let their kids inherit it.

I think in the next couple of years, prices may drop another 10% or so and a whole mass of buyers will come forward and drive prices up. This cycle will keep continuing. It may get back down to 1998 levels. But not in my lifetime. That's why I'm trying to buy now.

schmitz_kris says

As I indicated in my post above, currency markets move on fundamental and technical principles, not by random chance. Sorry.

Of course they do--but in order to make money, you have to be able to predict the future better than everyone else. So, unless you have a crystal ball then you are almost guaranteed to lose in the long run.