patrick.net

Bearmarket moved to Utah where he now practices Polygamy Abstinence.

thunderlips11 says

3:5 Bulls:Bears right now (counting vain and simchaland due to the 1 year out timeline).
Tom Wong, can I mark you down as a Bear?

IMHO, Its not really a bull/bear thing. If home prices rise, that would create a risk for jobs, both renters and homeowners.

$85 per month at 7% compounded will get you >220k in 40years
i.e. invest $85 in market index fund every month and you'll have your 220k ready for you when the 40years is up

And the forum was not full of right-wing goons and free-for-all thread privileges. Those were the days, I tell you :-).
Sniff.... I am getting all nostalgic. Perhaps we need to send out the bat signal and do an old school singe thread/blog for one day. Threads have really been wacky this past week. Sigh... there's always 1499 Gingerwood to bring back some of those old feelings...
Now, I am become Debt, the destroyer of wallets. -surfer-x

@repo4sale
Vacation

justme you raise a good point.

Brief Patrick.net history lesson (Patrick - feel free to correct me)

In the early days, Patrick posted threads (or posts or whatever they were called) on a given topic, and you could comment on them. I don't even think a password was required early on.

Most of the people commenting (Surfer-X, DINOR, DifferentSean, etc.)were all west coasters (San Fran, Silicon Valley, Oregon, etc.). Personally, I read most of their stuff, but didn't add my own two cents all that much, because I know little about the areas they were operating in.

Over time, the site grew and the scope stretched out beyond the west coast - about 2005 (?) Patrick added the first forum. With this addition, the topics got more varried and the "regular" posters cane and went.

The problem was there were "dueling" forums. Most of the "originals" stayed with commenting to Patrick or Harm's posts. Relative "Newcommers" such as myself were more apt to use the forum, which eventually was so spam infested ("water" posts, etc.) that Patrick solicited moderators, to which end I volunteered my services.

About 2006 (?), Patrick canned the "old" forum, (it was difficult to maintain from a code perspective) and came up with the current version, which has also grown in size and topic variety.

Patrick also had some great "side links" to his thoughts on non-housing matters that are no longer on the site "How to ask for a raise" "Armenians vs. Turks" etc.

As far as HOF goes, anyone I can think to nominate right now has already been mentioned.

Bearish. "hope for the best, but plan for the worst" is my motto. If anything, I believe that when all is said and done, things will not have gotten armageddonly bad- government (rightly or wrongly) will intervene.

I still stand by my prediction that the DOW to have a one day drop of 1000+ points this fall

Patrick posted that he was taking a couple of days off (says so on the links page). I'm guessing everything is okey dokey.

Bearmarket was one very odd guy. I saved one of his posts linking breast augmentation and suicide. it was long and wierd. I can post it for old time's sake. but the replies came from:

culady
Midwest Mrs.
OICU812 (funny guy)
Timcan
TPB (tot)
Bobby80
Techie

lyoungblood says

Welcome to debt slavery! LOL! I would walk and take the credit hit.

I don't know about "debt slavery", but I assume since it's a refinance the new loan is recourse. Not that that means much.

I wonder how it works with Wells Fargo on it's balance sheet. Do they still count that $220,000 deferred-pay loan as an "asset". It sure looks the only real asset they have is new low-interest, but basically standard 30 yr. $480K loan, with an additional Make-Believe loan of $220K. I bet Wells keeps that $220K Make-Believe loan on it's books as an asset at full discounted value. What a joke. Yep, just like japan.

I don't think prices will get back to 2006 prices for decades if ever, So Her deal is not a good or in my line of thinking smart, I would think foreclosure if
A) purchase loan,
B) non recourse state.
C) Or have short sale

Get out in some other manner. That is not a good deal or at least I don't think so.

ONE more thing, EBguy has a GIANT POINT 1099 (free bee tax on loan forgiveness ends, That is why I tried to tell my 200K upside-down friends to walk NOW but they think prices in Brentwood Ca (north) will come back to 2006 levels not in our lifetime, we are 45 lol NO WAY I see it,

may wanna sit down for this one:

THe fact Beck fell for the lie of the LDS cult shows a real issue with the man. If he cant read the Bible and see the absolute wrongs that the LDS cult tends to follow, he lacks basic understanding of God's Word. His political questions and connecting the dots are spot-on and have not been countered yet by any critic. His biggest haters dont watch the show .. I find it odd that they have a view of a show they do not watch ... oh well. I do not like Howard Stern. He is vulgar-for-humor. I don't like Savage, his show is over-produced and almost fake. But, liberalism does have mental disorder qualities in my opinion. lol. I don't like Rush on all sides, but I did sit and read his first two books and I do agree with him about life, God, and political issues. I do not take marrige advice from him.

I liked Paul Harvey. I liked Mr. Rogers. I liked Big Bird. I really liked School House Rock (learned the Preamble from there) All good message suppliers. Dr. J. Vernan McGee has some great messages, but you folks may not know him until you google.

I never liked Dr. Laura too much. Her "Proper care and feeding" is not allowed in my house, says wife.

Bap33 says

I find it odd that they have a view of a show they do not watch

You may not be aware, that a big part of some "left wing" cable shows are centered (well maybe not centered) around the most outrageous things that Beck and Limbaugh say. When they say really stupid things, sticking their foot in their mouths big time, it gets played on MSNBC. Keith Olberman's show get's a lot of entertaining material from those two.

He and Rachel Maddow are a bit dramatic and times, and certainly biased, but they tend to use facts to support their thesis, and they rarely do the kind of paranoid "connect the dots," dumbed down "logic" that Beck does, because that would not appeal to their audience, who tend to think they are intelligent. Of course I'm sure Beck's audience thinks they are intelligent too. You know street smarts. I feel it in my gut smarts.

What I find most offensive about Beck is his emotion and his arrogant self righteousness. He'll say something so vague, and so speculative, so biased, with a lot of emotion. Just trying to support the emotions on the right, that is of his viewers. He does it without sufficient facts, and with no counterpoint. And he has is little chalk board like he's a teacher. He is an evil man. Pandering to the very worst in people.

I am somewhat of an agnostic, although I was raised Catholic, and I am spiritual in a way. But I find Beck to be a walking advertisement for Atheism, because of the way that he works God in to his nonsense. He has found a way to not feel bad about what he does. It's called religion.

Why don't you start a business instead of whining?

Be your own boss. Many countries, this is the only method of finding a well paying job, create your own.

Are you too lazy now to do this? Is it too much work for you?

pkennedy says

Why don’t you start a business instead of whining?

Because the democrats wants 70% of what that business would make, and on top of that he would have insure all of his employee's kids until the ripe old age of 26 or was it 29?

Ray I think the best thing to do, would be to just not work, and live off of the Social teet.
That way the whole damn system will collapse with in weeks if not months, on these short sighted dimwits. Then we can put this to bed, and America will be screwed up worse than it's ever been. But just maybe, MAYBE, people will look in History books, and say, "Well what about production and Saving" to create wealth and a GDP, that can support everyone that wants to Work.

And we just keep supporting the Old, and the sickly poor, but not the lazy bums that think the world owes them a living.

I think most people want to work but the Government (by design) gets in the way. Both parties, along with the banksters and mega corporations, got us into these extremely destructive trade deals that are crushing the middle class. Then, they add to the perfect storm by allowing millions of illegals into the country in order to dilute the employment force further which of course in turn drives down wages and eliminates jobs for American citizens. All this is going on while the American people are still in record territory as far as personal debt and low personal savings, upside down on mortgages, foreclosures, etc. Social Security is getting swamped due to the baby boomers that are retiring early because many of them are out of work, etc. Wait until the commercial real estate bust hits due to loan resets beginning en masse in 2011. You're going to see credit dry up like a hot day in the dessert. I expect the frauds in Washington to come up with another TARP to bail out the banksters due to their toxic commercial loans, precisely what happened last time.

pkennedy says

Are you too lazy now to do this? Is it too much work for you?

I want a piece of the New American Dream, i.e. "work" for the Guvment. Is that too much to aks for?

Others do it, and they have to play by the same rules as you. You're just lazy and wish to complain instead.

You're idea of the american dream is fast easy cash. Not work hard.

You sound prejudice, angry and biased. What do you have against lazy folk?

You're incompetence is amazing.

You're fast to judge the government on every action.

You're sitting in a country that has the most potential for an entrepreneur and yet all you do is find issues why you can't do it.

bert says

$85 per month at 7% compounded will get you >220k in 40years
i.e. invest $85 in market index fund every month and you’ll have your 220k ready for you when the 40years is up

Alternatively, just stick $12,500 in the market today, and at 7% growth over 40 years you'll get your 220,000

Tenouncetrout says

And we just keep supporting the Old, and the sickly poor, but not the lazy bums that think the world owes them a living.

You've really zeroed in on the big problem. Those people that think the world owes them a living. They are the problem. Actually, the ones in prison do cost us a lot. But otherwise ?

If you lower the requirement for food stamps, so that people working minimum wage jobs can't qualify, they either turn to crime, or they literally work themselves to death. But then what about their children ?

Other than food stamps, unemployment and prison, where are the big expenditures related to people who think the world owes them a living ? Health care maybe ?

And gee, speaking those who feel entitled, I sure am glad that none of those people making incomes in the stratosphere have an out of whack sense of entitlement.

pkennedy says

You’re incompetence is amazing.

It's "your" not you're. And your, I mean you're, biased against lazy folk.

Who cares about food stamps, welfare or anything else? Who wants this life style?

The living conditions of these people is horrific compared with someone working at a decent paying job. If a person can't find a decent paying job, then they should start their own business and work as hard as they want and reap the rewards. Everyone bitches that CEO's make too much, well become a CEO yourself and join that crowd.

Stop making excuses.

You're unfortunately correct about my previous usage of your.

I can tell you've tried to get a Guvment job and was turned down. Something has made you bitter, maybe that's it.

pkennedy says

You’re unfortunately correct about my previous usage of your.

Your welcome. Thanks for admitting you're mistake.

I'll miss Dr. Laura. I hear her on KSFO here in the Bay Area.

Why would I get a low paying government job? What is wrong with you? My god.

Get with things, and start a business. Stop worrying about welfare and food stamps. They're a minuscule expense. Look at your business expenses instead and sales and how to best optimize them instead. That is time well worth spent. Trying to optimize a few % points on the government is a waste of time.

Get your act together. Stop complaining. Go start a business.

This doesn't suprise me. I wrote about the ING perpetual mortgage for Australia here: http://seekingalpha.com/article/207622-why-australia-needs-the-perpetual-loan

ING is a spawn of the Rothschilds through Lambert, of Drexel, Burnam, Lambert infame.

OK ... let's say I should start a business. Any suggestions? Can I get some Obama Money for my new business?

Why do you constantly need something from the government?

Why can't you come up with an idea yourself?

Starting a business, working hard. That is the american way. Not only do you want an idea, you want the government to help. You complain about the government, but have nothing original or anything useful to offer the country either.

Are you trying to tell me that this is what "hope & change" is all about? Work? Start a business? I like my idea of another Census. That way, more people will be hired that will spend more money and help keep WalMart going,etc. What's good for WalMart, is good for the country, etc.

You still didn't give me any ideas for starting a business or where I can get some Obama Money.

Yeah I can see why the banks are doing this - they will avoid principal write-down as much as possible because of the bank failures it would cause.

I wonder how many years they can continue to keep the beach ball in the air before the entire system collapses? Or will the banks just keep the bad assets on their books for decades and we'll see Japan all over again for the next 20 years?

Why are you so concerned with hope and change?

Go start a business, work hard like other American have done and do well in life.

Stop your obsessing over something that really won't effect you in any way. You don't need to worry about others, you're sarcastic remarks about welfare, and government intervention show that you're not interested in their health, you're only obsessed about trying to get little scraps like them.

Employees and welfare recipiets aren't where you find the American dream. You find a basic existence. Go show us you're hardworking and capable, start a business and stop complaining. You can't even stop obsessing over getting things for free, you want a business idea as well!

I get the impression that you are completely incompetent, barely making more than people receiving welfare. Well, go find something better to do, and make the American dream come true. It won't start with "Give me free ideas and business training! I need it all for free!"

You're sweet, facts just don't matter do they?

PS: Dear Leader, thank you for taking so many vacations

Obama vacation days
http://www.factcheck.org/2010/01/president-obamas-vacation-days/

and

Reagan insider: 'GOP destroyed U.S. economy'
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/reagan-insider-gop-destroyed-us-economy-2010-08-10

and

The vast majority of small-business owners would see no change, and many would get a cut.
http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/mccains_small-business_bunk.html

and

Report shows bailouts, stimulus helped economy
http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewiStockNews/articleid/4369009

and

Gallup poll is that 60 percent of Americans "favor additional government spending to create jobs and stimulate the economy."
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2010/06/gallup_poll_americans_favor_mo.html

All that took me three minutes to source. Honestly, why do you even bother? Does it make you feel good? Possibly even make you giggle to post nonsense?

And I'm still waiting to hear a response to your nonsense points on the Flippers post...

pkennedy says

You’re sitting in a country that has the most potential for an entrepreneur and yet all you do is find issues why you can’t do it.

Your statement is debateable. If the entrepreneur is starting from nothing, you might be right--mostly due to the vastness of our economy. If the proprietor has capital, I can guarantee you that the US is far from the best place to start a business. Regradless, the overwhelming majority of entrepreneurs go broke...in any country. You are obviously badgering, for no other reason that to be a jerk.

RayAmerica says

OK … let’s say I should start a business. Any suggestions? Can I get some Obama Money for my new business?

Yes. Working government loopholes has become the American business-person's focus, above most other issues. It is an unfortuante fact, that running a business has become more about working the hodge podge regulatory, legal, and subsidy systems rather than creating real value.

More people with problems results in more government involvement results in more value being siphoned off by the well-connected results in more people with problems results in more government involvement... Our economy is doomed if we don't get out of this positive feedback loop.

Hardly. The number of business not related to the government is massive. There are of course lots that rely on the government for business.

Look at every clothing store, restaurants, car dealership, muffler shop, gas station, etc. There are probably 100-200 businesses for every one that relies on the government.

It's possible to moan and complain about the government and the state of business, but it's also very realistic to start your own business and do very well.

Business can be started with little to no working capital if you're willing to work your ass off and make it happen.

He might fail at running a business even if he works hard, but I guarantee if he does nothing he will fail.

If the loan is repaid, then the asset value will never truly matter, it only comes into play if they need to take back the asset and sell it off.

If the person repays the loan for another 12-15 years, chances are the principal repayment + house value will more than make up the outstanding loan amount.

The ability of many of these people to pay isn't the problem, it's the wisdom of people continuing to pay, that is the problem. The solution above isn't great but it helps the banks and helps the home owner. It keeps the bank solvent while creating a solution for the home owner which is fairly favorable. In essence they're taking a 200K write down.