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camping saysI'm not sure it is nominal. The number of sales for the Bay Area was pretty respectible in June. Why do you think they can't delay it for longer? What evidence is there that they can't keep delaying? The goal is clearly to delay things as long as possible so that inflation eventually kicks in and there is a meeting in the middle. My concern is a very slow drop mixed with increasing inflation with a rise in mortgage rates, and you wind up being worse off by waiting 3 years than buying today.If the Obama plan works, then inventory may stay this low. When the gov’t and the people who control all of the money have a goal, my doubts about going against them continue to grow.They poured so much money already. They are literally bribing people to buy home. Yet the impact we have seen in market for in past six months is nominal. Why do you think the impact will be any different in next few months? They can delay inevitable for few months, but they cannot stop it. Evidence is all over. Next wave of foreclosure is coming. Banks cannot keep holding properties forever. In addition, slowly expensive areas started getting affected. Take the example of Fremont. 94539 zipcode is Mission district - with better schools. Inventory is piling up there (176) - higher than other parts of Fremont. Listing in this zipcode are not coming from foreclosure. People are simply not buying homes with a notion “home price always go up†anymore. Mission district price will drop significantly. The question is how-fast or how-slow. But it will.
That probably won't happen until next year because of a backlog of foreclosures that have yet to come on to the market. The median sales price was $181,800 in June, down 15 percent from year-ago levels but up slightly from $174,700 in May.
I’m not sure it is nominal. The number of sales for the Bay Area was pretty respectible in June.So where is the data to prove that it not nominal. As you mentioned Fremont, I already showed Fremont data. Number of sale is 105 as compare to last years 100. So, increase of five sales is not nominal? And what do you mean by "pretty respectable"? How do you quantify it? So far I have seen is nothing but seasonal change. Spring comes, people buy home. It peaks at May/June and then starts dropping till next Spring.
Why do you think they can’t delay it for longer? What evidence is there that they can’t keep delaying?You just need to look at the results of past few months. I don't think next few months will be any different (or may be it will get worse). Banks have to unload their bad assets from balance sheet. California is even in worse shape than rest of the country. Counties/cities needs money from property tax. Pretty soon counties will start sending property tax bills to banks. Do you think banks will continue holding those assets forever and pay tax, insurance etc? Good luck to banks.
The fact is that people who have been sitting on the fence have decided to buy some of the bargains that are available.May/June always been the peak of buying season. Could you give some comparison how it is any different from previous years?
Look…if you believe in our system? You need Bulls and Bears for a market, that’s the way it works. No different here. If it wasn’t for you guys, prices would NEVER come down and people would NEVER be able to make a profit. I don’t hold it against you, why do you hold it against the Bulls who ensure your profit by pushing the market up?"Bulls" and "Bears" don't make the market. The market is 99% consumer confidence. Being a bull vs. a bear is just an investment strategy (and, unless you're a total moron, not a static label in any case).
The fact is that people who have been sitting on the fence have decided to buy some of the bargains that are available.No, the fact is that they are taking advantage of a 8000 dollar BRIBE to buy a house. Record low interest rates, shadow inventory, foreclosure moratoriums, summer buying activity, etc. It is painfully obvious that this game is being rigged, hence the increase in recent months.
Proof: Where was all this talk (on Patrick.net) on Health Care before the Messiah started preaching about it?Patrick.net is, first and formost, a site about the housing bubble. It was peope like you who really started bringing up health care here. Personally, I wish that the "HOUSING CREASH" forum would stick to, I dunno, the housing crash. In the mainstream, though, health care debate has existed since the 1940s. Did talk die down a bit during boom times? Of course! Nobody really notices how fucked up the insurance-based system is when everybody has jobs that are mostly paying for insurance. It's when we have 10+% unemployment rates that things start to rise to the surface again. And, yes, of course Obama talks about health care a lot. Health care was the biggest component of his platform -- the platform that the majority of the country elected him on. Not the economy, not the wars, not the gross violation of human rights under the previous administration. Health care. It was his issue #1 from the moment he announced his candidacy. Please don't pretend otherwise. I know it's strange for a President to actually try to push the agenda that they were elected on. Reagan certainly followed through on his campaign agenda, but Clinton and both Bush's ignored everything their campaigns were saying on or around February first.
On a different thread I posted a link that mentioned 8,000+ homes sold in the bay area in June 2009 which was a little less but similar to June 2003.What does it prove? Please elaborate what you are trying to convey by comparing with 2003 numbers. Did you take 2003 price and inventory level into account? Selling 80 homes out of 100 is lot different from selling 80 homes out of 400 homes in market. Oh, yes I forgot 32% June 2009 sold homes are from foreclosure sales which is clearly reflected in depressed price. camping says
Why do banks have to unload their bad assets? They’ve been doing it very slowly up to this point, why all of a sudden now? If they’ve been planning on avoiding a rush of foreclosures at once, why would they all of a sudden change their mind?Because they cannot keep them holding FOREVER (unless of course banks start renting those properties and get into real estate investment). They have to unload - slowly or fast. Nowhere I made argument that they are going to sale foreclosed properties "suddenly now" or with "rush". You are using those words. All I said that sooner or later they have to sell those foreclosed properties. Oh, yes more defaults are coming: Foreclosures dip but default notices rise. Let's see how banks can continue holding those properties.
2003 was part of the bubble era. If we are seeing sales numbers similar to that, it leads me to believe that there are obviously a lot of people out there buying right now. If they are buying now even in a terrible economic environment, why would you expect buying to stop when the economy actually starts doing better?It got to be very same rational that keeps shifting as time goes by. When median price goes up - "median going up, market is bouncing back". When median goes down, but price per sq-ft goes up - "median is useless. Look at price per sq-ft. It's up. Market is bouncing back.". And when price per sq-ft goes down, but sale volume goes up - "sale is up. market is recovering". Let me ask you a simple question: What metric (or combination of metrics) do you consider to measure market condition? Just sale volume means nothing unless you look at the underlying reasons and factors. Let's compare between 2003 and 2009: Interest rate: 2003 low (with all kind of toxic loans), 2009 low (but banks no longer offer those toxic loans) Inventory: 2003 low, 2009 high Foreclosure (and foreclosure sale): 2003 low, 2009 high The psychology "real estate is safe investment": 2003 lots of people believed it after dot-com bust, 2009 guess? Unemployment: 2003 limited to hi-tech industry only, 2009 all across board and higher So, care to explain why 2009 market will play same script of 2003 market? Just to give an idea, in 2003/2004 even strawberry picker could buy $700K home. Do you think they can do it today?
You keep equating NODs with foreclosure.Please do put your word in my mouth. Please read the article, if you can. The article said that NOD are leading indicator of foreclosure. camping says
How do you know the mortgages won’t be re-worked?So, give us a ballpark figure about the percentage of loans could be re-worked. 100%, 50%? camping says
Plus, banks don’t need to hold onto houses FOREVER, they just need to hold onto them until they can sell them for the price they want. I’m a believer that inflation is coming. Banks may only have to wait a few more years before they can sell at their price.Few more years!!!! I understand few months, I understand one year. Do you understand the lost opportunity for banks to hold properties for "a few more years", unless there is a significant appreciation in home value in near future that would beat other types of investments? Secondly, who will manage and maintain those properties for "a few years" so that they remain in salable state? Banks don't have any ability to manage real estates. Unless they get into real estate investment, I don't think they are capable of holding assets for "a few years" without screwing themselves farther.
Plenty of people made arguments why the banks are getting away with stuff and holding onto properties.I read other threads but I am not sure you are referring to the same. Please point out specific post. Nowhere I read someone arguing, with legitimate points, that banks will/can continue to hold properties for "a few years". That's a stretch. People argued for banks holding properties (as they are doing already). If I say "I am holding my breath", that does not mean that I am holding my breath for "a few years".
but like the other thread said, the banks control the game. If they control the game, they aren’t going to lose.Ok, I am waiting for a link for that extra-ordinary thread that CONCLUDED that "banks control the game". Don't tell me that extra-ordinary thread is no different from this very thread - different people making different arguments, some of them are valid and some of them are not. I am not disagreeing that banks have enormous influence over govt policies. But they cannot control the market. If they could, you wouldn't see foreclosures (or banks failing) in first hand.
As far as holding properties, I’m not necessarily talking about the banks foreclosing and then owning them, I’m talking about the banks just delaying the foreclosure.And delaying foreclosure does not mean delaying for "a few years". Keep in mind that owner is not paying mortgage for to-be-foreclosed home. So bank is getting nothing from it, UNLESS they foreclose and sell it.
Read the thread titled: “Fixing the rules: Per request from Patrick.†Angrish, in particular, made some good points.Actually I followed the thread very closely. Many made interesting comments. But nobody based their argument that banks can hold properties "a few years" to avoid loss. Banks don't have that kind of infrastructures to hold properties for that long time.
WillyWanker saysSome Guy saysDude, that’s just stupid. Are you mentally retarded? What exactly is 'stupid' about that, moron? Are you too much of an idiot to not know the difference between a Mulatto and a black man? Or are you so angered by Obama's white mother that you can't even get your head out of your ass? Please advise.It’s just tearing you guys up that a black man became president, isn’t it?Uhmmm, the guy is a MULATTO. His mother was WHITE, his father was a BLACK MUSLIM. That makes him a half~breed, MULATTO. It’s just tearing you guys up that a MULATTO man became president, isn’t it? And that his mother had the outrage to be white.
Considering you questioned my ability to read you should you should probably read a little better yourself.Straw man argument. I asked you to read the article because it was very clear that you were putting words in my mouth without reading it. camping says
Although it does not explicitly state “for a few years,†it’s clear that the above logic can be applied long term.LOL! I still fail to connect between your argument of bank delaying foreclosure for "a few years" until home values go up again (which in turn allows bank to foreclose eventually, kick out "squatter" and sell it in higher price), and that specific discussion which eventually ended in following comment.
I think I’m probably not gonna say this again. But I agree. This can’t continue. What I’m looking for is that simple causal process that will break something. Logic you say? Well set axioms, set rules, and show me a logical progression that leads from here to a contradiction of those axioms, thereby implying that this “can not†go on forever. I went short on the home builders in 2006, and banks n 2007. We all saw the exuberance. But now we don’t see as much because it’s happening behind closed doors. The game is being fixed. This is why we’re discussing things here. Pre-2008 was easy, the rules weren’t changing. Now they are, and in the face of this fact, we’re trying to see (1) What has changed and (2) How will that eventually fail. I guess that’s about as clearly as I can put it. I’m not saying this will go on forever, but I’m unable to find a convincing logical progression that’ll show me how it’ll end.
And in 2004, there were 14,104 sales. So no, 8,000 is not “bubble†levels of sales. It’s actually 16.1% below average.Irrespective of 2004/2003 sale numbers, it is a stretch to conclude that just because sale number of 2009 is same/similar to 2003 therefore Bay Area housing market will behave same way as it did in 2003-2007.
Some Guy saysTalk about straw man arguments. Where did I say it was going to behave the same way as it did in 2003-2007?And in 2004, there were 14,104 sales. So no, 8,000 is not “bubble†levels of sales. It’s actually 16.1% below average.Irrespective of 2004/2003 sale numbers, it is a stretch to conclude that just because sale number of 2009 is same/similar to 2003 therefore Bay Area housing market will behave same way as it did in 2003-2007.
camping saysWhile Angrish said he doesn't think it will go on forever, he also can't find a reason why it will stop and no one provided a valid one. I don't understand why you think a few years equals forever (not what you said, but what you are implying by citing this conclusion). I'm not saying it will go on forever, just long enough. One of your initial posts in this thread was to disprove the fact that low inventory is because of sales, and your justification is that banks aren't foreclosing. Well, if they did this for the past year, why is it such a stretch that they will do it for another year (thus several years)? We've had 3 month moratoriums by the fed and now CA, why is it so impossible for you to imagine them doing a 1 year moratorium when it starts getting bad again?Considering you questioned my ability to read you should you should probably read a little better yourself.Straw man argument. I asked you to read the article because it was very clear that you were putting words in my mouth without reading it. camping saysAlthough it does not explicitly state “for a few years,†it’s clear that the above logic can be applied long term.LOL! I still fail to connect between your argument of bank delaying foreclosure for “a few years†until home values go up again (which in turn allows bank to foreclose eventually, kick out “squatter†and sell it in higher price), and that specific discussion which eventually ended in following comment.I think I’m probably not gonna say this again. But I agree. This can’t continue. What I’m looking for is that simple causal process that will break something. Logic you say? Well set axioms, set rules, and show me a logical progression that leads from here to a contradiction of those axioms, thereby implying that this “can not†go on forever. I went short on the home builders in 2006, and banks n 2007. We all saw the exuberance. But now we don’t see as much because it’s happening behind closed doors. The game is being fixed. This is why we’re discussing things here. Pre-2008 was easy, the rules weren’t changing. Now they are, and in the face of this fact, we’re trying to see (1) What has changed and (2) How will that eventually fail. I guess that’s about as clearly as I can put it. I’m not saying this will go on forever, but I’m unable to find a convincing logical progression that’ll show me how it’ll end.
WillyWanker saysI don't know if your retardation was caused because your mother and father are brother and sister or because your father banged your head against the headboard each night in lieu of bedtime stories~~~regardless your condition would make you an ideal candidate for euthanasia. Just think of it as doing the world a favor, asswipe. As far as I am concerned, you can go and sit on 0bama's flag pole and 'advise' him on policy while gyrating lewdly. Just don't assume I care about your past, present or future. But thanks for sharing.What exactly is ’stupid’ about that, moron? Are you too much of an idiot to not know the difference between a Mulatto and a black man? Or are you so angered by Obama’s white mother that you can’t even get your head out of your ass? Please advise.Jesus Christ. Did you get dropped on your head when you were a baby? I would “advise†you to jump off a bridge because you are too stupid to live. Or better yet, take your white sheet and burning cross and shove ‘em up your ass.
Talk about straw man arguments. Where did I say it was going to behave the same way as it did in 2003-2007?So please elaborate what you meant with following statements when you compared 2009 with 2003
2003 was part of the bubble era. If we are seeing sales numbers similar to that, it leads me to believe that there are obviously a lot of people out there buying right now. If they are buying now even in a terrible economic environment, why would you expect buying to stop when the economy actually starts doing better?
One of your initial posts in this thread was to disprove the fact that low inventory is because of sales, and your justification is that banks aren’t foreclosing.Incorrect. I said banks are not listing their foreclosed homes (what is known as "shadow inventory") at the same pace as they did in past. Foreclosures are happening. And I posted SF Chronicle link for foreclosure database. This link is available for more than a year now and I monitored this database in regular basis. The numbers are increasing - sometime in slow pace, sometime in faster pace. So far I have never seen numbers are going down. Just to give a comparison, in Santa Clara County there were 400+ foreclosure at the same time last year. Currently there are more than 5200. On the top of that, now there are good number of foreclosures on those areas where people never saw foreclosure in past. Example, Palo Alto (including 94301), Los Altos, Cupertino (including Monta Vista), Woodside, Belmont, Mission district in Fremont. camping says
Well, if they did this for the past year, why is it such a stretch that they will do it for another year (thus several years)?Well, it is nothing unusual for banks to listing the property 3-6 months after repossessing it. Let me put it this way - banks are lousy when it comes to handling real estates. They never had good infrastructure to handle it in efficient manner. However, it did not matter in past due to three reasons 1. In past, volume of foreclosures were pretty low compare to regular housing market. Therefore, a few foreclosures did not make any impact in market. 2. As the home value increased over time (some places modestly, some places rapidly), the 3-6 months delay (or even more) delay to list/auction foreclosed property did not have impact. 3. In pre-bubble era, 20 or 10% downpayment (of non-toxic standard loans) used to cover the loss anyway. So banks did not have much to lose. But it is different time and different situation now. In some areas foreclosure volume is much bigger than regular housing market. As banks are lousy to handle foreclosed properties, they are simply overwhelmed with the foreclosures with this magnitude. This sheer volume worked against them another way - in some neighborhood multiple properties are foreclosed from same bank. So if they are listed at the same time, they would start competing against each other. As an example, let's assume in Rivermark (Santa Clara) there are five foreclosures and all are from Wells Fargo. Wells Fargo simply would not want to compete those properties against each other. So they need to stream line the foreclosed properties in such a way (probably in staggered fashion) so that competition does not happen. And they are not doing very good job (and they never did in past). This problem is more prevalent in new constructions where multiple loans were issued from same bank at the same time (remember the name Countrywide?). I know a guy who works for a bank in SF and developing software to track foreclosed properties (and their relevant information) in more efficient manner. The last news is: they are still working on it. :) So far I have seen anywhere between six months to one year delay for listing foreclosed properties. But it does not surprise me, considering the volume of foreclosures. camping says
We’ve had 3 month moratoriums by the fed and now CA, why is it so impossible for you to imagine them doing a 1 year moratorium when it starts getting bad again?Well, I am not trying to imagine anything at this moment. If I want to, I could imagine lots of hypothetical scenarios. How about this one: multiple asteroids will drop in neighborhoods where there are too many foreclosures and will destroy all the properties. Banks will collect insurance from insurance company. End of story. No foreclosed property in market, home value goes up. Or may there will be an earthquake. Basically, there are infinite possibilities to "imagine". I would like to see some facts on ground (or atleast some kind of rumors leaked from banks that they are trying to hold those properties forever or long enough). Moratoriums are band-aid solutions from lawmakers to keep citizens and local govts happy. Some banks actually resisted the idea. For example, Bank of America negotiates clouded legal waters
As four U.S. senators joined the chorus of political leaders and activists calling for a foreclosure moratorium, Bank of America continued to resist requests that it voluntarily adopt such measures on Countrywide Financial Corp. loans. "We understand the concerns that have been raised," Bank of America spokeswoman Shirley Norton told Legal Newsline on Tuesday, "and believe there are better alternatives for our customers and communities than broad moratoriums."
Please just tell me where I said anything about the market behaving like the period of 2003-2007, not just 2003, but the 2003-2007 period.Ok, may be I misinterpreted you. And I am sorry for that. But please elaborate your point about 2003 and 2009 comparison. I would like to hear it.
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