patrick.net

There was another thread that discussed how banks aren't foreclosing and have less incentive to because of the gov't. Where do pending sales fall in the charts? Or are they a gap? I've heard that the time to close on a house lately is 2-4 months. So if a pending sale doesn't count as sold but also isn't considered part of the inventory, then this could create a gap. We'll see in a couple of months if things go up more.

camping says

Where do pending sales fall in the charts? Or are they a gap? I’ve heard that the time to close on a house lately is 2-4 months. So if a pending sale doesn’t count as sold but also isn’t considered part of the inventory, then this could create a gap. We’ll see in a couple of months if things go up more.

Go to redfin and search for homes for four zipcodes in Fremont. Search first by clicking checkbox "Exclude under contract" and then re-search unchecking that checkbox. Different of search result is sale pending. So these are the pending sales: 94536: 109-98=11 94538: 67-59=8 94539: 184-176=8 94555: 51-47=4 If escrow-closing is taking 2-4 months, it did in all the recent months - March, April, May, June. Why do you think July or August number will be any dramatic different last few months? Does not make too much sense. In a nutshell, so far 2009 sale increase is not any dramatic different from seasonal change that start from Spring. Numbers are marginally better than 2008, but that's all. It isn't enough to digest foreclosed inventory.

Damn! everytime I put a link in my post, it says "Your comment is awaiting moderation".

chrisborden says

To all, you need to read this excellent analysis by the Associated Press (based on today’s news conference) to learn some of why this plan is grossly misleading. This is the kind of reporting we need in this country: FACT CHECK: Obama’s health care claims adrift?

Dude, Be careful. How many of these articles are being written by paid agents of Insurance companies, you will never know. Power of propaganda is very great. Don't underestimate it. At least in Communist countries and Nazi Germany right to propaganda was confined to State and so you knew where it was coming from. But in democracy everyone has to right to propaganda and big businesses know it full well. Before you know, you have been had. All of us who trade in stock market know it full well.....So beware and don't spread other people's propaganda. I will prefer Obama plan anyday and give the man credit for thinking of ordinary people.

Just saw this asshole David letterman make fun of Obama healthcare plan. Of course when you made millions over the years reciting lame vulgar jokes why do you need health insurance. You could go to any doctor you want. Of course obama plan sucks !! fuck the poor....bomb the third world...Ain't that cherished American dream !!!...

none of you people screaming howling fantods over healthcare reform have mentioned anything about the socialist-public police force, or the socialist-public fire dept, or highway or park management, or any number of other gov run systems that serve us quite well... you seem to have no problem with those, but when healthcare comes up its suddenly a screaming bloody horrible thing to have gov involvement. last time I checked the healthcare system in the states was a nightmare. it costs a fortune, it drops people for having problems, it drains employer money, it has faceless bureaucrats dictating what services I can and can't get, what doctors I can/can't go to, etc, etc, but now potential reforms to this is suddenly a problem worth screaming and fighting for? what are you people actually thinking? my guess is something else is going on in your heads that has nothing to with healthcare systems. because non of the arguments I've heard so far supporting the current system make any sense... what is it?

P2D2 says

camping says

Where do pending sales fall in the charts? Or are they a gap? I’ve heard that the time to close on a house lately is 2-4 months. So if a pending sale doesn’t count as sold but also isn’t considered part of the inventory, then this could create a gap. We’ll see in a couple of months if things go up more.

Go to redfin and search for homes for four zipcodes in Fremont. Search first by clicking checkbox “Exclude under contract” and then re-search unchecking that checkbox. Different of search result is sale pending. So these are the pending sales: 94536: 109-98=11 94538: 67-59=8 94539: 184-176=8 94555: 51-47=4 If escrow-closing is taking 2-4 months, it did in all the recent months - March, April, May, June. Why do you think July or August number will be any dramatic different last few months? Does not make too much sense. In a nutshell, so far 2009 sale increase is not any dramatic different from seasonal change that start from Spring. Numbers are marginally better than 2008, but that’s all. It isn’t enough to digest foreclosed inventory.

Your "sale pending" numbers are not valid. If a listing agent takes the property off the MLS when it goes under contract instead of indicating "under contract," it will not show up using your calculation. Many of them do this. But, it's probably not a huge enough number to make up for the significant drop in inventory. So then the bottom line is that, like you said, people are de-listing their houses and banks are not foreclosing at such a high rate. There may be several reasons why banks are not foreclosing (e.g. re-working the mortgages under the Obama plan). If the Obama plan works, then inventory may stay this low. When the gov't and the people who control all of the money have a goal, my doubts about going against them continue to grow.

Some Guy says

It’s just tearing you guys up that a black man became president, isn’t it?

Uhmmm, the guy is a MULATTO. His mother was WHITE, his father was a BLACK MUSLIM. That makes him a half~breed, MULATTO. It's just tearing you guys up that a MULATTO man became president, isn't it? And that his mother had the outrage to be white.

Good for whom? The govt is bribing people to buy houses at absurdly low interest rates. "Good" would be slightly higher rates and an established bare minimum of 10% down.

camping says

Your “sale pending” numbers are not valid. If a listing agent takes the property off the MLS when it goes under contract instead of indicating “under contract,” it will not show up using your calculation. Many of them do this. But, it’s probably not a huge enough number to make up for the significant drop in inventory.

That's right, even if you double or triple the number, it is not enough.

Although interest rates are low, they have actually been going up over the last few months. Last year 4.85 was the norm and now it is getting close to 5.5

camping says

If the Obama plan works, then inventory may stay this low. When the gov’t and the people who control all of the money have a goal, my doubts about going against them continue to grow.

They poured so much money already. They are literally bribing people to buy home. Yet the impact we have seen in market for in past six months is nominal. Why do you think the impact will be any different in next few months? They can delay inevitable for few months, but they cannot stop it. Evidence is all over. Next wave of foreclosure is coming. Banks cannot keep holding properties forever. In addition, slowly expensive areas started getting affected. Take the example of Fremont. 94539 zipcode is Mission district - with better schools. Inventory is piling up there (176) - higher than other parts of Fremont. Listing in this zipcode are not coming from foreclosure. People are simply not buying homes with a notion "home price always go up" anymore. Mission district price will drop significantly. The question is how-fast or how-slow. But it will.

I'm in favor of Universal Health~care, I just question the timing of this proposal. The economy is much too weak to be taking on such a task. Besides, neither the President nor the members of Congress will be participating in the proposed ObamaCare. If it's as good as they tout, they should gladly be willing to give up their own insurance plans and join the rest of the nation. Why in the world should Obama, Barney Frank and Ted Kennedy get different health~care than anyone else in the nation? I thought this was a Democracy. We have no 'kings' and no 'emperors' everyone here is a citizen (and under Obama perhaps, even, a comrade), but it is the height of hypocrisy to want to overhaul health~care for everyone but oneself. I say that Congress and the White House should put their money where their mouth is and give ObamaCare some legitimacy. Otherwise, how do they expect a vote of confidence.

P2D2 says

camping says

If the Obama plan works, then inventory may stay this low. When the gov’t and the people who control all of the money have a goal, my doubts about going against them continue to grow.

They poured so much money already. They are literally bribing people to buy home. Yet the impact we have seen in market for in past six months is nominal. Why do you think the impact will be any different in next few months? They can delay inevitable for few months, but they cannot stop it. Evidence is all over. Next wave of foreclosure is coming. Banks cannot keep holding properties forever. In addition, slowly expensive areas started getting affected. Take the example of Fremont. 94539 zipcode is Mission district - with better schools. Inventory is piling up there (176) - higher than other parts of Fremont. Listing in this zipcode are not coming from foreclosure. People are simply not buying homes with a notion “home price always go up” anymore. Mission district price will drop significantly. The question is how-fast or how-slow. But it will.

I'm not sure it is nominal. The number of sales for the Bay Area was pretty respectible in June. Why do you think they can't delay it for longer? What evidence is there that they can't keep delaying? The goal is clearly to delay things as long as possible so that inflation eventually kicks in and there is a meeting in the middle. My concern is a very slow drop mixed with increasing inflation with a rise in mortgage rates, and you wind up being worse off by waiting 3 years than buying today.

I love when NAR starts jumping with so-called positive news. Then at the bottom of the aticle it says:

That probably won't happen until next year because of a backlog of foreclosures that have yet to come on to the market. The median sales price was $181,800 in June, down 15 percent from year-ago levels but up slightly from $174,700 in May.

The fact is that people who have been sitting on the fence have decided to buy some of the bargains that are available. In the future many more bargains may be available and perhaps more buyers will jump in to buy at that time. The market has gone up. I know it's painful for some here but there are a lot more foreclosures coming down the pike. Wait and buy later or find something you want at a price you can afford. I think buyers can decide that for themselves.

camping says

I’m not sure it is nominal. The number of sales for the Bay Area was pretty respectible in June.

So where is the data to prove that it not nominal. As you mentioned Fremont, I already showed Fremont data. Number of sale is 105 as compare to last years 100. So, increase of five sales is not nominal? And what do you mean by "pretty respectable"? How do you quantify it? So far I have seen is nothing but seasonal change. Spring comes, people buy home. It peaks at May/June and then starts dropping till next Spring.

Why do you think they can’t delay it for longer? What evidence is there that they can’t keep delaying?

You just need to look at the results of past few months. I don't think next few months will be any different (or may be it will get worse). Banks have to unload their bad assets from balance sheet. California is even in worse shape than rest of the country. Counties/cities needs money from property tax. Pretty soon counties will start sending property tax bills to banks. Do you think banks will continue holding those assets forever and pay tax, insurance etc? Good luck to banks.

WillyWanker says

The fact is that people who have been sitting on the fence have decided to buy some of the bargains that are available.

May/June always been the peak of buying season. Could you give some comparison how it is any different from previous years?

Troll alert....

nowhere but up from here says

Look…if you believe in our system? You need Bulls and Bears for a market, that’s the way it works. No different here. If it wasn’t for you guys, prices would NEVER come down and people would NEVER be able to make a profit. I don’t hold it against you, why do you hold it against the Bulls who ensure your profit by pushing the market up?

"Bulls" and "Bears" don't make the market. The market is 99% consumer confidence. Being a bull vs. a bear is just an investment strategy (and, unless you're a total moron, not a static label in any case).

15000 over a couple of years? Sure. "A couple" meaning 5-10? Absolutely. ...and anyone who had their money in the market back in 2007 will still have lost their asses then. Now, for people who did the smart thing and got out in 2007 and got back in this year, things will probably be pretty good. Well, good until the next idiot move causes another crash some time in 2014 or so.

WillyWanker says

The fact is that people who have been sitting on the fence have decided to buy some of the bargains that are available.

No, the fact is that they are taking advantage of a 8000 dollar BRIBE to buy a house. Record low interest rates, shadow inventory, foreclosure moratoriums, summer buying activity, etc. It is painfully obvious that this game is being rigged, hence the increase in recent months.

drfelle says

Proof: Where was all this talk (on Patrick.net) on Health Care before the Messiah started preaching about it?

Patrick.net is, first and formost, a site about the housing bubble. It was peope like you who really started bringing up health care here. Personally, I wish that the "HOUSING CREASH" forum would stick to, I dunno, the housing crash. In the mainstream, though, health care debate has existed since the 1940s. Did talk die down a bit during boom times? Of course! Nobody really notices how fucked up the insurance-based system is when everybody has jobs that are mostly paying for insurance. It's when we have 10+% unemployment rates that things start to rise to the surface again. And, yes, of course Obama talks about health care a lot. Health care was the biggest component of his platform -- the platform that the majority of the country elected him on. Not the economy, not the wars, not the gross violation of human rights under the previous administration. Health care. It was his issue #1 from the moment he announced his candidacy. Please don't pretend otherwise. I know it's strange for a President to actually try to push the agenda that they were elected on. Reagan certainly followed through on his campaign agenda, but Clinton and both Bush's ignored everything their campaigns were saying on or around February first.

All I know is that I still can’t afford to buy into a neighborhood where I make more than the average for that zip. This is with a 20% down. I just continue to rent below my means and stack cash. By the time the market normalizes I should have 30-40% for a DP and no other debt.

On a different thread I posted a link that mentioned 8,000+ homes sold in the bay area in June 2009 which was a little less but similar to June 2003. Why do banks have to unload their bad assets? They've been doing it very slowly up to this point, why all of a sudden now? If they've been planning on avoiding a rush of foreclosures at once, why would they all of a sudden change their mind? They are going to trickle foreclosures onto the market with the help of the gov't. I think cities/counties should do what you are saying, but they haven't to this point, why would they start now? It's not like 2009 is the first year CA was in trouble. They've been in trouble for a while. Even if local gov'ts did start putting pressure on the banks, the fed gov't would step in and help them out.

I see a lot of properties come back on the market after only a few months. Are these counted as "new" sales? If the same houses keep getting sold over and over that is not reducing the inventory at all. Why would investors want to sell so quickly if these are easy to rent? It doesn't add up.

camping says

On a different thread I posted a link that mentioned 8,000+ homes sold in the bay area in June 2009 which was a little less but similar to June 2003.

What does it prove? Please elaborate what you are trying to convey by comparing with 2003 numbers. Did you take 2003 price and inventory level into account? Selling 80 homes out of 100 is lot different from selling 80 homes out of 400 homes in market. Oh, yes I forgot 32% June 2009 sold homes are from foreclosure sales which is clearly reflected in depressed price. camping says

Why do banks have to unload their bad assets? They’ve been doing it very slowly up to this point, why all of a sudden now? If they’ve been planning on avoiding a rush of foreclosures at once, why would they all of a sudden change their mind?

Because they cannot keep them holding FOREVER (unless of course banks start renting those properties and get into real estate investment). They have to unload - slowly or fast. Nowhere I made argument that they are going to sale foreclosed properties "suddenly now" or with "rush". You are using those words. All I said that sooner or later they have to sell those foreclosed properties. Oh, yes more defaults are coming: Foreclosures dip but default notices rise. Let's see how banks can continue holding those properties.

It seems as if owners are setting prices at below market price on the low side of the market and thus generating bidding wars. This seems a pretty good marketing strategy from the sellers side particularly if the house buyer is a "home" buyer, in other words emotionally involved. I don't fault the sellers for this if I was selling I would do the same, shear the sheep. There is a perception, mis perception in my opinion among some of the "home" buyers that inventory is falling and prices are stabilizing or going up. This is generating sales which might create a temporary false bottom. Given the fundamentals of the market that I follow, North Bay, the bottom is not in sight though affordability on the low end has increased significantly since the peak.

2003 was part of the bubble era. If we are seeing sales numbers similar to that, it leads me to believe that there are obviously a lot of people out there buying right now. If they are buying now even in a terrible economic environment, why would you expect buying to stop when the economy actually starts doing better? You keep equating NODs with foreclosure. How do you know the mortgages won't be re-worked? Plus, banks don't need to hold onto houses FOREVER, they just need to hold onto them until they can sell them for the price they want. I'm a believer that inflation is coming. Banks may only have to wait a few more years before they can sell at their price. Read the other thread about why banks don't need to unload their inventory. Plenty of people made arguments why the banks are getting away with stuff and holding onto properties. You can keep believing how things should work out, but like the other thread said, the banks control the game. If they control the game, they aren't going to lose.

camping says

2003 was part of the bubble era. If we are seeing sales numbers similar to that, it leads me to believe that there are obviously a lot of people out there buying right now. If they are buying now even in a terrible economic environment, why would you expect buying to stop when the economy actually starts doing better?

It got to be very same rational that keeps shifting as time goes by. When median price goes up - "median going up, market is bouncing back". When median goes down, but price per sq-ft goes up - "median is useless. Look at price per sq-ft. It's up. Market is bouncing back.". And when price per sq-ft goes down, but sale volume goes up - "sale is up. market is recovering". Let me ask you a simple question: What metric (or combination of metrics) do you consider to measure market condition? Just sale volume means nothing unless you look at the underlying reasons and factors. Let's compare between 2003 and 2009: Interest rate: 2003 low (with all kind of toxic loans), 2009 low (but banks no longer offer those toxic loans) Inventory: 2003 low, 2009 high Foreclosure (and foreclosure sale): 2003 low, 2009 high The psychology "real estate is safe investment": 2003 lots of people believed it after dot-com bust, 2009 guess? Unemployment: 2003 limited to hi-tech industry only, 2009 all across board and higher So, care to explain why 2009 market will play same script of 2003 market? Just to give an idea, in 2003/2004 even strawberry picker could buy $700K home. Do you think they can do it today?

camping says

You keep equating NODs with foreclosure.

Please do put your word in my mouth. Please read the article, if you can. The article said that NOD are leading indicator of foreclosure. camping says

How do you know the mortgages won’t be re-worked?

So, give us a ballpark figure about the percentage of loans could be re-worked. 100%, 50%? camping says

Plus, banks don’t need to hold onto houses FOREVER, they just need to hold onto them until they can sell them for the price they want. I’m a believer that inflation is coming. Banks may only have to wait a few more years before they can sell at their price.

Few more years!!!! I understand few months, I understand one year. Do you understand the lost opportunity for banks to hold properties for "a few more years", unless there is a significant appreciation in home value in near future that would beat other types of investments? Secondly, who will manage and maintain those properties for "a few years" so that they remain in salable state? Banks don't have any ability to manage real estates. Unless they get into real estate investment, I don't think they are capable of holding assets for "a few years" without screwing themselves farther.

camping says

Plenty of people made arguments why the banks are getting away with stuff and holding onto properties.

I read other threads but I am not sure you are referring to the same. Please point out specific post. Nowhere I read someone arguing, with legitimate points, that banks will/can continue to hold properties for "a few years". That's a stretch. People argued for banks holding properties (as they are doing already). If I say "I am holding my breath", that does not mean that I am holding my breath for "a few years".

I keep hearing so many so called good news about housing recovery. Yesterday, I saw on CBS5 news that housing has recovered in some cities like Lafayette in east bay while others like Concord are languishing. It is no surprise that Concord is in dumps, but I wondered how Lafayetter is any better. Agreed, Lafayetter is a far better neighborhood, but prices have declined everywhere from their highs in 2005-2006. I paid close attention to what they were saying and found out how real numbers are used to come up with improper conclusions. The story was about how the city governments are suffering due to reduced property taxes. Concord had a lot of new homes built in the last few years, which artificially inflated the city property tax revenues, while Lafayette had little or no new homes built and there were very few sales of older homes. So, Lafayette city did not witness huge percentage increse in its property tax revenue as compared to Concord. Now that there are many foreclosures, Concord is witnessing drastic reduction in its propert tax revenue while Lafayette isn't. The house sales in Lafayette right now are actually resluting in incresed property tax revenues because vast majority of them were last sold over ten years ago. One example quoted in the report was of a house which went 50% above its 1999 sale price. This obviously results in increased property tax for the city, but does it imply that house value appreciation in Lafayette is any better than in Concord? Absolutely not! 50% appreciation over ten yrs is roughly about 4% annual return! lousy!!

Read the thread titled: "Fixing the rules: Per request from Patrick." Angrish, in particular, made some good points. As far as holding properties, I'm not necessarily talking about the banks foreclosing and then owning them, I'm talking about the banks just delaying the foreclosure. Letting the people stay in there for however long. You are aware the gov't is paying them to do this, not to mention the billions of dollars the gov't is continuously giving them, right? I can't respond to all of your questions. I do actually have some work to do. At this point I'm not even sure where this is all going. You can believe that there is a wave of foreclosures coming. From what I've been seeing, I am having my doubts about such a situation.

camping says

but like the other thread said, the banks control the game. If they control the game, they aren’t going to lose.

Ok, I am waiting for a link for that extra-ordinary thread that CONCLUDED that "banks control the game". Don't tell me that extra-ordinary thread is no different from this very thread - different people making different arguments, some of them are valid and some of them are not. I am not disagreeing that banks have enormous influence over govt policies. But they cannot control the market. If they could, you wouldn't see foreclosures (or banks failing) in first hand.

camping says

As far as holding properties, I’m not necessarily talking about the banks foreclosing and then owning them, I’m talking about the banks just delaying the foreclosure.

And delaying foreclosure does not mean delaying for "a few years". Keep in mind that owner is not paying mortgage for to-be-foreclosed home. So bank is getting nothing from it, UNLESS they foreclose and sell it.

camping says

Read the thread titled: “Fixing the rules: Per request from Patrick.” Angrish, in particular, made some good points.

Actually I followed the thread very closely. Many made interesting comments. But nobody based their argument that banks can hold properties "a few years" to avoid loss. Banks don't have that kind of infrastructures to hold properties for that long time.

Some Guy says

WillyWanker says

Some Guy says

It’s just tearing you guys up that a black man became president, isn’t it?

Uhmmm, the guy is a MULATTO. His mother was WHITE, his father was a BLACK MUSLIM. That makes him a half~breed, MULATTO. It’s just tearing you guys up that a MULATTO man became president, isn’t it? And that his mother had the outrage to be white.

Dude, that’s just stupid. Are you mentally retarded? What exactly is 'stupid' about that, moron? Are you too much of an idiot to not know the difference between a Mulatto and a black man? Or are you so angered by Obama's white mother that you can't even get your head out of your ass? Please advise.

Considering you questioned my ability to read you should you should probably read a little better yourself. From the other thread: Angrish said: @SoCal, they let the people sit in those houses. They create squatters. The house isn’t abandoned, just the person “squatting” in it doesn’t pay for it anymore. The lawns and the windows and everything will still be fine. Some people have brought up loss of cash flow for banks. That’s more than compensated for by setting a 0% rate for them to borrow at from the Fed and 5% rate they can lend to the treasury at, all for doing nothing more than signing some papers. No more work needed. Cash flow continues unabated, just from a different source. The absence of property taxes will just make the state bailouts bigger. And we can keep printing while people are willing to buy our debt. I thought that was about to break a month or so ago, but it looks like the worse things get, the more the confidence in (or last resort attitude towards) US debt grows. All good arguments people, but I’m still looking for that one invariant, that they can’t fool. ------------------ Although it does not explicitly state "for a few years," it's clear that the above logic can be applied long term.

camping says

Considering you questioned my ability to read you should you should probably read a little better yourself.

Straw man argument. I asked you to read the article because it was very clear that you were putting words in my mouth without reading it. camping says

Although it does not explicitly state “for a few years,” it’s clear that the above logic can be applied long term.

LOL! I still fail to connect between your argument of bank delaying foreclosure for "a few years" until home values go up again (which in turn allows bank to foreclose eventually, kick out "squatter" and sell it in higher price), and that specific discussion which eventually ended in following comment.

I think I’m probably not gonna say this again. But I agree. This can’t continue. What I’m looking for is that simple causal process that will break something. Logic you say? Well set axioms, set rules, and show me a logical progression that leads from here to a contradiction of those axioms, thereby implying that this “can not” go on forever. I went short on the home builders in 2006, and banks n 2007. We all saw the exuberance. But now we don’t see as much because it’s happening behind closed doors. The game is being fixed. This is why we’re discussing things here. Pre-2008 was easy, the rules weren’t changing. Now they are, and in the face of this fact, we’re trying to see (1) What has changed and (2) How will that eventually fail. I guess that’s about as clearly as I can put it. I’m not saying this will go on forever, but I’m unable to find a convincing logical progression that’ll show me how it’ll end.