patrick.net

Somewhat misleading since the 2008 program was by design an advance that would be reversed. The article says 4% or so of claims are screwed up, close enough for gob't work.

I'm hoping my experience living in Japan 1992-2000 is indeed the correct intellectual and emotional grounding for the situation we (the middle class) are in now -- just a continuous beatdown that will go on and on, worse and worse.

If it weren't for OUR stupid bubble the Japanese wouldn't even had had their mini-recovery 2003-2007.

wait wait wait .... who figured out how much is enough? Why that amount? Who picked that guy? How much is rich? Why? How much more should rich people pay? why?

I'm pretty much just ribbing you .. but, my questions do point out some of the troubles with liberal based social engineering.

I have pondered this and came up with some basic stuff. In each area of our land it costs $X(A) to live as a middle class citizen. $X is an unknown amount and (A) is the multiplier tied to a particular area. If a study can find what amount is the middle amunt needed for a middle class existance in each area ... wait wait wait ,,, we have to draw the dividing lines first to find these areas .... hmmm ... how will we do that? Why that way? See the problem with this stuff man? The tax code could be - ALL yearly income is taxed 10%. All income over 10 times the national average will be taxed 50% for the amount over 10 times national average.

Bap33 says

wait wait wait …. who figured out how much is enough? Why that amount? Who picked that guy? How much is rich? Why?

The line between middle class and upper class is the difference between return to labor (wages) and return to capital (interest and rents).

I agree that this should be a local thing and not a national level of taxation. If I had my way the state/Federal tax levels would be inverted, ~5% paid to the Feds, ~10% paid to the state, and ~25% paid to the county.

Thing is, compared to that everything is so screwed up that nothing is even in the same ballpark as being optimal.

Btw, the disappearance of the upper middle class tax brackets was accomplished by the Reagan reorganization of 1986, in an effort to insulate the wealthiest and most predatory fortunes from populist confiscation, like what existed 1940-1960-ish.

How much more should rich people pay? why?

I disagree with the general conventional wisdom here that is it necessary to load taxation on the upper class to pay for everyone's way (since I believe the tax bill comes out of rents and land values dollar for dollar).

The problem is that since we undertax the middle and lower classes so much it's hard now to adjust taxation into a more flatter tax system. People's budgets (especially their mortgages) have been set to their existing takehome pay.

This is why we liberals don't mind taxing the upper middle class and upper class more . . . Willie Sutton had it right, unfortunately.

In a better system we'd tax more what we want less of (rentierism) and less what we want more of (labor), but getting there from here is not possible, not in my lifetime at least.

Party of No dances to the tune of their masters.

And how exactly are the workers screwed?

AdHominem says

they make up the fastest growing “industry”

Can you support that ? You may think that the stimulus created a lot of federal jobs. It it did saved a lot of state government jobs.

AdHominem says

Housing prices surged, people thought they were getting richer, but in reality their money was just losing value (aka inflation) because the money supply was growing exponentially

Actually general inflation was not close to housing inflation, and those people were in fact getting richer, but only if they sold before the crash.

I tend to agree though that a devaluation is not a good solution. It's a total cop out, and would have a potentially disastrous effect on the credibility of our government, not to mention the long term perception of the dollar and US govt securities.

Until they support cutting the defense budget (all of it, not just the military) by 75 percent, getting rid of medicare, and getting rid of social security, I can't take any small government people seriously.

Of course, only one of those things is actully paid by the wealthy.

I'd say screw everyone and no tax cuts for anyone. A tax cut for a lower class will result in savings that will get them a meal at McDonald's. A tax cut for a rich person will result in savings for a few houses.

nosf41 is right. It's just pre-election political games. Then it's about who can lie in front of everyone better (debate).

nosf41 says

They still have a large majority in Congress

In the House, yes, they can pass anything they want.

The Senate, no. There's a couple of DINOs that have been peeing in the Cheerios this year WRT joining the Republicans in not voting for cloture so bills can move from debate to the final floor vote. This has become a problem thanks to the rather interesting approach of the Republicans to just filibuster everything now.

Right now the Senate only has 59 Democrats or Democratic-leaners, one short of the 60 necessary for cloture. The two Republican princesses from Maine occasionally support bills through the Republican filibuster.

Vain says

’d say screw everyone and no tax cuts for anyone. A tax cut for a lower class will result in savings that will get them a meal at McDonald’s

This is not true. The lower bracket cuts amount to ~$200B/yr, or around $2000 per household averaged out.

AdHominem says

but in reality their money was just losing value (aka inflation) because the money supply was growing exponentially

If the amount of goods being chased increases, increasing money supply is neither here nor there.

And you may have noticed that China has been pumping out a great amount of goods for a while.

Additionally, if the increased money supply is just collecting in strong hands (or gathering dust in banks), monetary velocity has decreased and the effective money supply is much less than the gross number.

AdHominem says

*as an aside I would love to see how much actual money/savings went to purchases of real estate from 1997-2007 vs. how much of those purchases were financed.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/HMLBSHNO

All this financing WAS devaluation.

This financing also spurred a 22% rise in real GDP, 1999-2007:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GDPCA

44% in nominal terms:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GDP

You can’t cure devaluation with the hair of the dog that bit ya!!!!!!!!!

You are failing to understand the full ramifications of the deflationary collapse our national economy is still teetering towards.

While I am not confident that the Krugman policy approach is sufficient, I was surprised to see him say this in his recent column:

"Republican obstruction means that the best we can hope for in the near future are palliative measures — modest additional spending like the infrastructure program President Obama proposed this week, aid to state and local governments to help them avoid severe further cutbacks, aid to the unemployed to reduce hardship and maintain spending power.

"Even with such measures, we'll be lucky to do as well as Japan did at limiting the human and economic cost of the economy's financial woes. But it's by no means certain that we'll do even that much. If the Republicans go beyond obstruction to actually setting policy — which they might if they win big in November — we'll be on our way to economic performance that makes Japan look like the promised land."

I've been saying the same thing, that gummint "Keynesian" spending at best is only going to be palliative and not curative.

There is no cure for this economy's problems short of liquidating a lot of idle wealth that is gumming up everything via rentierism.

So neither side backs down and the tax rates revert to pre-Bush levels...personally I don't think that's such a terrible thing.

Dems most likely to blink first? or Dems make last stand before House turns over?

It was a loan in 2008, a credit in 2009... this year they outta give us a house just because we live & breathe.

The story said that they're collecting against the estates of dead people. If the estate proceeds have already been distributed, how do ya do that?

Awww, no one would play with me! wahhhhh!

PFM - Pure fucking magic. It's how things work.

The Dems have the media not holding them to task on anything. No questions about how to pay for Obamacare. No questions about unemployment. No questions about the treatment of Arizona voters. So, as this next act is played out in a effort to save a few seats the media will help Barry as much as it can. And I agree, Reps are 99% made of the same slimey shit the Dems are ... just a different pile, but still stinks.

The lack of an honest unbiased media keeping the lights on the roaches is not a good thing. Libs hate Fox news, but Fox is the best non-biased source there is. Period. (that oughta get things rolling lol)

When I read AF posts, it has crossed my mind that perhaps he is just mocking this forum. It is, after all, a crash blog. The crash of housing and the general state of the economy are the headlines. A lot of gloom and doom is discussed in a more civilized dialogue. His "plant potatoes" / end of the world dialogue I take as a joke.

Either that or he is a total lunatic who has read The Road one too many times.

CBOEtrader: I don't think the power lies with the government, but with corporations. Fat cats in Washington aren't getting rich off our income taxes, they were already well monied before they infiltrated the government, and many of our so-called representatives are bought and paid for the day they arrive on the hill. We can't siphon off power by reducing taxes alone. Smaller government may seem like a panacea but even if you can fit the government on the head of a pin, what good is it if it's still operates by and for corporate America and not the U.S. citizen? That's the distinction I was trying to make anyway. Perhaps we're in agreement.

Bap33 says

The Dems have the media not holding them to task on anything. No questions about how to pay for Obamacare. No questions about unemployment. No questions about the treatment of Arizona voters. So, as this next act is played out in a effort to save a few seats the media will help Barry as much as it can. And I agree, Reps are 99% made of the same slimey shit the Dems are … just a different pile, but still stinks.
The lack of an honest unbiased media keeping the lights on the roaches is not a good thing. Libs hate Fox news, but Fox is the best non-biased source there is. Period. (that oughta get things rolling lol)

If there's one thing almost everyone agree on--it's that the media is out to get them... I find it amusing that liberals think there is a vast right wing media conspiracy while conservatives think there is a vast left wing media conspiracy. It must be a psychological thing...

The republican party is a dead party. They are against the building tide of Latino voters that will likely vote them into the history books like the Whig party.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whig_Party_(United_States)

I predict the taxcuts will expire because China said no, since they will be buying the debt(SNL quote: to be clear you are not going to repay us with clunkers). When the tea-party gets into congress the place will be shut down. Obama campaigned on "change", so he is actually for these changes. What we need to remember is democracy is change, change is violence. We can non-violently eliminate the incumbents with our votes. It used to be that to get that many leaders to leave would cost 3 million lives through an uprising. The massive turnover will wake them up and change the prevailing winds.

Troy says

Vain says

’d say screw everyone and no tax cuts for anyone. A tax cut for a lower class will result in savings that will get them a meal at McDonald’s

This is not true. The lower bracket cuts amount to ~$200B/yr, or around $2000 per household averaged out.

Good to know. I was just throwing out some random numbers but you catch the drift. There is a big difference between the two's benefits of a tax cut. I personally am not a fan of temporary anything. If they raise it, raise it. If they lower it, lower it. I just hate being toyed with.

dhmartens says

We can non-violently eliminate the incumbents with our votes

sure .... until Lord Barry feels the voters of the nation are just as stupid as the voters of Arizona.
or, until enough welfare dependant, ignorant, non-Americans are able to "vote" in Barry to be the "Hugo Chaves DeLaNorte".

non-violence is not real popular with leftists or arabmuslamislamists ... in case anyone cares.

No, at least one of the tax cuts will not expire and that is the estate tax cut which if nothing is done reverts from this year at a zero tax on all estates to a mere 1 mil. exemption. That and capital gains and dividend rates will drive a compromise solution. The relatively minor increases on personal income (the rates in effect during the horrible economy during Clinton years) are getting the attention but the real concern among the plutocracy are the estate, capital gains and dividend rates.

I am for abolishing the senate because it has nothing to do with democracy.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hhzVIHnfp50
cut from this blog:
"All congressional power should rest with the House of Representatives. The Senate is simply infuriating.

It is quintessentially anti-democratic because it provides EXTREME misrepresentation of the American people.

All men are created equal flies right out the fucking window in that hall of madness. 300,000 people from Wyoming get the same representation as 17 million people in Texas or 32 million people in California."

Bap33 says

No questions about how to pay for Obamacare

"The whole package will cost roughly $940 billion over 10 years to provide expanded insurance coverage, according to CBO."

vs

"Combined, extending the Bush tax cuts would cost about $3 trillion over 10 years; limiting the tax cuts to middle-income households would lower this cost by about $700 billion. "

Hey, we just paid for 75% of the cost of providing health insurance to nearly everyone! Awesome, huh!

Bap33 says

No questions about unemployment.

What questions do you have? Did you expect the good times of 2005-2006 to return already? What don't you understand about the one trillion dollar per year bubble debt sector blowing up in 2008?

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CMDEBT

Bap33 says

No questions about the treatment of Arizona voters

ah another outrage-du-jour from the Republican media machine. Are Arizona voters being rounded up in front loaders Soylent Green style?

dhmartens says

I am for abolishing the senate because it has nothing to do with democracy.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hhzVIHnfp50

cut from this blog:

“All congressional power should rest with the House of Representatives. The Senate is simply infuriating.
It is quintessentially anti-democratic because it provides EXTREME misrepresentation of the American people.
All men are created equal flies right out the fucking window in that hall of madness. 300,000 people from Wyoming get the same representation as 17 million people in Texas or 32 million people in California.”

And just think, the senate was supposed to be the lukewarm water to temper the radicalism of the masses in the house. Funny how things work out.

pkowen says

Indeed. I agree.

I agree too. If this nation is so stupid as to elect a Republican Congress & President again, we deserve all the destruction they so love to create.

Honest Abe says

Government interventionism ultimately leads to socialism. Socialism leads to tyranny.

What about Norway? Most socialized economy I'm aware of, per-capita GDP tops for an actual non tax-haven nation:

1 Liechtenstein $122,100
2 Qatar $119,500
3 Luxembourg $79,600
4 Bermuda $69,900
5 Norway $57,400
6 Jersey $57,000
7 Kuwait $52,800
8 Singapore $52,200
9 Brunei $51,200
10 Faroe Islands $48,200
11 United States $46,000

How does this fact not penetrate your ideological defense barriers? Why do you avoid it?

Are the Norwegians not free? Does their socialized systems work well for them? Are they not happy?

Obviously you think socialism is superior to anything else. That would make you a socialist, whether you admit it or not.

Troy Troy Troy ... must you attack personally? As I said, the media has not held Barry and the leftisits to any firm public scrutiny. I just gave a few easy examples. The Arizona situation is a particularly disgusting act by Lord Barry and Co. If 'ol GeeDub or Ahhnuld had done something like that when Gavin and the Deviant Army pulled their junk in Frisco, man oh man, the media would have went nutz-o (say "nutz-o" like Fonzie for the full effect). The liberal bias in media is too obvious to ignore. No need to attack me personally though, I aint in the media.

Honest Abe says

Obviously you think socialism is superior to anything else. That would make you a socialist, whether you admit it or not.

I call myself a "left-libertarian", actually. I prefer going with policies that work best, the labels you wish to apply are meaningless and transparent attempts at character assassination.

The libertarians up in Alaska have collected to themselves a $36B SWF on the model of Norway's. Norway has $90,000 per capita, Alaska's is $50,000 per capita of state-directed wealth confiscation.

http://www.apfc.org/home/Content/home/index.cfm

The horror!

^ Norway comes close in several important areas. Their state-owned oil exploration company allows them to enforce their 80% severance tax. Australia just lost their attempt at 40% severance tax regime due to the lack of a state-owned capacity willing and able to take up the slack that would be caused by multinationals like Rio Tinto taking their toys somewhere else.

Also Norway has a fully nationalized banking system last I checked, and telecoms too AFAIK. I do not oppose these, though the history of telecom and government control is not that encouraging.

The questions you demand answered are senseless. Find better questions.

Except for the AZ thing. I admit I have no fucking idea what you want the media watchdogs to do on that.

Boehner is willing to budge, judging from his statements. If the Democrats can get the House to back extending just middle and lower income cuts, with Boehner and a few other notables working with them or finding a compromise, there will be a lot of pressure on the Senate. Working something out with Boehner, who is generally popular across the strata of the Republican party, would be the key.

ahasuerus99 says

Boehner is willing to budge

Boehner and the present Republican House minority is irrelevant, until January at least.

I'm pretty sure democrats won't budge on this one. It's a fantastic voter generator for them! If the Republicans let it expire for everyone, they're evil, and it will be EASY to spin it that way. If they don't vote it in quickly, it's going to generate a great stump speech topic for the democrats. The republicans can say all they want about how it was unfair that not everyone benefited from it, but in the end, the majority of voters will have been hurt by their actions.

pkennedy says

The republicans can say all they want about how it was unfair that not everyone benefited from it, but in the end, the majority of voters will have been hurt by their actions.

The Republicans and DINOs in the Senate can say they held on tax cuts for all. If history is any guide the Dems will cave on this and we'll add another trillion to the deficit over the next 10 years.

Welcome to Japan. 日本にようこそ。

@Troy

I don't think they'll cave this time around. Eventually it will get passed. The Republicans can say whatever they want, but the Dems can come back with "You should have voted to help the average person out, and bickered about the last 1% of people LATER!"

This will definitely be something worth watching, to see if they can stick together as a party on this one. I'm pretty sure Obama will hold onto it and block anything useless from coming through.

shrekgrinch says

The job of the Opposition Party is to Oppose. Look it up.

Wow. The Party of No is actually the Party of Bullshit. Who knew???

shrekgrinch says

And, budget reconciliation is immune to filibusters

Only if the bills a) don't increase the deficit or b) sunset in 10 years.

shrekgrinch says

WTF: pkowen NOT says

All men are created equal flies right out the fucking window in that hall of madness.

Show us all where in the Constitution it says ‘all men are created equal’.
Hey! I got a really cool mortgage I’d like to sign you up for! I mean, you seem to KNOW all kinds of things but really don’t, so you’ll just have to trust me. Your ignorance is not an issue!

Not sure how I got quoted but I didn't post the above.