patrick.net

JustInTime says

The contrarian play right now would be to bet on rising interest rates.

They will eventually rise as the Fed gradually loses control (they have already risen), but it won't go down without a fight ;)

Wait, so you're saying that none of the bubbles of the last 5 years are due to the fed's policy of near 0% interest rates?

If so, you're completely delusional and should be remanded for treatment.

http://thepeoplescube.com/peoples-blog/topic11669.html

egads101 says

On their own, 0% rates account for about 20% of the house price we saw in the bubble, if that. That is about how much better monthly payments got from the mortgage rate change.

Yeah right. It's only a question of rates. All the $trillions in extra money supply looking for somewhere to go has nothing to do with the Feds.

That's pretty delusional.

Ducky, Do you still have your foreclosureradar account.
What are the details on this property: Man shoots locksmith in eviction try near San Ramon
The incident was reported shortly before 2 p.m. on the 3400 block of Ashbourne Circle in the Norris Canyon Estates development west of San Ramon, said Jimmy Lee, a spokesman for the Contra Costa County sheriff's office, which patrols the unincorporated area.

I am all fed up with the fed!

JustInTime says

Sure, but take a look at the 10Y JGB chart for the last 20 years and ask yourself how sure you are that's coming in the next decade or two...

Agreed, however I think in the case of Japan it may have had a little to do with the continued trade surplus, which is gone by now and which the US hasn't had.

Well I am all out. had a nice run the last few years. I will stay out for a bit-too crazy for me. I just can't get a read -though with Janet Yellen, I think this rally may continue for a few years-who knows may breach 20,000.

Though where I moved I am thinking of buying a house-no bubble here and very decent prices.

David Losh says

So, you're right, it's not the Fed, it's the speculation.

Yes, it's speculation but it's cause by the Fed.

Traditionally, with Treasuries yielding 5% returns, you didn't have to go out and plow your savings into Phoenix shit-shacks in order to produce investment income.

I think there probably is something to the idea that the Feds actions did put a floor under housing and the economy in this depression and that it may indeed have caused a recovery and deleveraging process that takes far longer than it would have otherwise.

THat doesn't mean that I think it was a mistake. Maybe it wasn't.

But I also question whether it might have been better, if banks had been broken up or otherwise prevented from consolidating and continuing many of the practices that could lead to another "too big to fail" fiasco.

Fed interventions which were designed to deal with the so called liquidity trap, were not directly related to the problem of banks having too much power. But then again, part of what all the QE did, was about putting banks on a stronger financial footing.

Again, maybe necessary. But bigger more powerful banks is not clearly a good thing.

Jesus would have head-butted Warren, then put out his cigarette on Piers Morgan's eyeball.

APOCALYPSEFUCK is Comptroller says

I just know Jesus would have taken a shit on Warren's face.

Gives a whole new meaning to "turn the other cheek".

Hello Everyone!

I've been a super long time reader coming here sometimes daily or at least weekly for years. I had my profile set-up but then lost/forgot my password and was too lazy to reset it.

I guess the reason I'm telling you this is because I really have learned so much from all of you, even when you rant and rave. Thank you all. I read Patrick and DrHousingBubble as well as IrvineRenter's blogs (ochousingnews).

I have been sitting on the fence since 2007 renting. I have been a little scared to buy and am now seriously considering buying as an investor but I do believe housing will be cheaper in the fall/winter. Truth, I am happy renting, but I feel I have outgrown my living situation and need more space, so my next move should be a larger house, possibly even a purchase. I'm just toooo risk adverse, that I still haven't been able to figure out if now is the right time.

Anyways, I'm not asking for advice, I know most of the more frequent users opinions. I just might decide to become more engaged in your conversations while I try to come to terms with my decision. Just wanted to introduce myself and say thanks for being highly opinionated and in many cases super knowledgeable.

One more thing, I'm a lazy typer since I do that all day, so when I'm away from work, that is the last thing I want to do.

Apocalypse, you crack me up with your cannibal anarchy mentality... keep it up!

And how did the median price in the US say around 2010 and adjusted for inflation compare to previous years? How many previous bubbles had 4 year bull traps AFTER prices had basically returned to historical norms?

Bigsby says

AFTER prices had basically returned to historical norms?

look at this asshole

he can't help himself. historical norms. what a dishonest liar.

Iwag says

Bigsby says

AFTER prices had basically returned to historical norms?

look at this asshole

he can't help himself. historical norms. what a dishonest liar.

Says the 'man' who claimed to live in Phoenix, but now supposedly bought a Victorian in SF when he was 21 whilst simultaneously saying that the government is paying for his medical care, housing and food... etc. etc.

Now back to housing - were prices in 2010/2011 in a bubble in the US or were they back on or near their general historical price trend? It's a simple question even for you.

Ceffer says

APOCALYPSEFUCK is Comptroller says

I just know Jesus would have taken a shit on Warren's face.

Gives a whole new meaning to "turn the other cheek".

And holy shit.

This post says a lot more about you than it does about Rick Warren. And what it says is so awful that I decline to even debate the point with the likes of you. Seriously, I feel like I need to go wash my hands after reading this filth.

The article clearly sais "as buyers rushed to lock in interest rates before they rise further". So, this rise in sales is not sustainable, because:

#1 Current increase in sales took sales away from the future.
#2 At some point, as rates rise further, the effect of locking in interest rates wears down.

Iwag - you are out of you friggin' mind dude

It's sad that you obviously must have gotten burned in real estate but seriously...IWAG??? you are going to take on somebody else's name and troll??

You need help. Nobody will listen to you.

Bigsby says

Says the 'man' who claimed to live in Phoenix,

another lie! you will never find a place where i claimed to live in phoenix. i have sensitive skin and would never live in a fiery shit hole like that. you are just proving what a dishonest person you are when you lie like that

SubOink says

It's sad that you obviously must have gotten burned in real estate

look at this asshole, he thinks that everyone is like him

sorry asshole, the last time i got burned investing in anything was when i bought shares of yahoo back in 2008. in real estate, my investments are flawless. like i said to roberto, i challenge anyone on this site who bought in 2009, 2010, 2011, or 2012 to compare gains.

you're just a sorry asshole liar making claims about someone you dont know

Quigley says

This post says a lot more about you than it does about Rick Warren.

Rick Warren is just another Televangelist / Mega-Church personality selling God to the gullible. And he's fabulously wealthy as a result. Why does an all-powerful God need your money?

and the Home Ownership rate continues to decline:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/USHOWN

I think this is the set of charts you like, let me know before we begin if this is data you would challenge.

This is from an article today:

Poverty is on the rise in single-mother families. More people are falling into the lowest-income group. And after earlier signs of increased mobility, fewer people are moving as homeownership declined for a fifth straight year.

"We're in a selective recovery," said William H. Frey, a Brookings Institution demographer who analyzed the numbers.

Iwag says

SubOink says

It's sad that you obviously must have gotten burned in real estate

look at this asshole, he thinks that everyone is like him

sorry asshole, the last time i got burned investing in anything was when i bought shares of yahoo back in 2008. in real estate, my investments are flawless. like i said to roberto, i challenge anyone on this site who bought in 2009, 2010, 2011, or 2012 to compare gains.

you're just a sorry asshole liar making claims about someone you dont know

LOL. Did I strike a nerve there?

Quigley,
How do you know filth,unless you've been reading filth?
Why are you reading filth?

Iwag says

Bigsby says

Says the 'man' who claimed to live in Phoenix,

another lie! you will never find a place where i claimed to live in phoenix. i have sensitive skin and would never live in a fiery shit hole like that. you are just proving what a dishonest person you are when you lie like that

DarrellInPhoenix

David Losh says

If the consumer is denied the one thing that they can control to create wealth, which is the family home, then they have no wealth effect that Bernanke is desperately trying to foster.

Houses *do not* create wealth. Factories create wealth.

David Losh says

The trickle down dream of giving the wealthy more money never worked for Reagan, and it's not working now.

True. But Reaganomics is a religion. To question it is heresy.

David Losh says

If you take away all the consumer's money, if you destroy the middle class, then you lose your feudal system.

What? I don't understand.

Everybody knows that prosperity comes from Jesus, not from understanding science and economics.

If you're not rich, it's only because you're not praying hard enough.

APOCALYPSEFUCK is Comptroller says

Simply satanic.

He's doing God's work.

APOCALYPSEFUCK is Comptroller says

Right, you get to Jesus by wrapping your lips around Warren's dick and handing him a bag of money. Galloshians 10:10.

Rick Warren gets your money. Ted Haggard gets your lips...

Tim Aurora says

I thought you said that housing was not an investment

Paying twice the price for a housing unit through interest payments, isn't an investment, it is a forced savings plan with the idea that you are some how saving rental payments?

I don't really get it in todays economic climate, but the idea, in the past, was that you paid off your mortgage to have some equity.

Today it seems like appreciation in asset prices is supposed to make it appear as an investment, and the hedge against inflation.

The Professor says

ChapulinColorado says

you crack me up with your cannibal anarchy mentality

Cannibal anarchy (CA) is not funny and is something to be avoided.

CA will happen when entitlement spending supports more than half of the population and the government can no longer afford to pay.

At that point the hungry people will look around and see the working class people as rich. In their entitled mentality they will see it as not fair that somebody has something and they have nothing.

That's when the anarchy starts. Cannibalism is not far behind.

That's when the gatling guns and fences come in handy. Oh, and the yam stockpiles.

ja says

.. how do you know the current prices don't already reflect that expectation?

That's just it. Efficient market theory says that all of the relevant information is already "priced in."

Now with instant information and online trading, markets are probably more efficient than ever before.

Who is looking out for Middle class. Need a new party.

Dems get votes by creating more freeloaders. There will be shock when most people would prefer to free load then to work.

Republican have lost power, mostly by claiming them as rich or racist. (if 1% is rich then atleast another 44 % of republican must be middle class or poor.)

Patrick, can we create a new party?

Ducky said:
I do but there's no address in that article.
It's called legwork (and much easier for you as I have to triangulate from free realtytrac and zillow data)... At any rate they updated the story: The incident began shortly before 2 p.m. at 3497 Ashbourne Circle in the Norris Canyon Estates development west of San Ramon, authorities said. Zillow shows is was sold in 2004 for $1.365 million and, get this, foreclosed in 2010 for $1.28 million. Wow, was the former owner squatting the whole time?! Looks like there was a Wachovia refi in 2007...

Why do you keep referring to apofuck, as a he?

You're going to go and piss her off

errc says

You're going to go and piss her off

Hmmmm...he does look like Sarah Palin...