patrick.net

@zzyzzx: man those pictures are so awesome. Made my day :)

Another thing employers do is raise prices, cut quality, quantity or all of the above But that is price inflation which is no longer possible as we've heard.

Plus, the 35 year old kids are already living with their parents, what is the next big compromise? Sharing a kitchen with strangers?

They are going to need to find quite a few undocumented immigrant C++ programmers crossing the Rio Grande, because 130k per year won't cut it with rents going any higher.

It really all comes down to blind faith in the "brilliance" of derivatives gambling. ALL of the liquidity in real estate is a result of those derivatives and the Central Bank's hopes that the money won't trickle down into the general markets. But look at the stock market. Of course it has trickled down.

Surprisingly perhaps, I'm more sure of a stock market crash than a real estate one, but they are not mutually exclusive.

.... and this is supposed to be a good thing?

Vicente says

Personally I don't prefer beef and think for many Americans it's a HABIT more than anything.

Cornfed CAFO beef is an unhealthy, subsidized (see how those two tend to go together) example of lemon socialism. The producers get the subsidies and keep the profits, while everyone else pays the price: direct subsidies for corn, obese customers' enlarged medical costs shifted onto everyone ("thanks, Obamacare"), pollution and disease from the runoff, environmental damage including the dead zone in the gulf of Mexico, etc. And that's when Democrats are in power; read Molly Ivins' pungent description of what happens when Republicans are in power and allow the beef to be smeared in its own feces so long as the feces aren't "fibrous".

Subsidized prices don't tell you much about the underlying costs, and can produce all sorts of distortions. In Soviet times, farmers sometimes gave bread to their cattle, because the bread was cheaper than the grain it contained. The recipients of corn subsidies argue that if their subsidies end, then we will see inflation in the retail price of beef. That's true, but we would see a reduction in the total cost of everything else, for example cornfields would become available for vegetables and the Gulf "dead zone" might become available for fishing if it isn't full of crude oil. Cornfed beef is a product that no rational person would buy at its actual cost, so the producers pay politicians to subsidize it, thus making it an artificially cheap habit.

I keep a spreadsheet of food prices, and over time I find they tend to revert to CPI, though I do observe volatility and shifts. For example, healthy food tends to get more expensive, while subsidized crap on the "Dollar Menu" stays the same, with the result that the people eating the subsidized crap become unhealthier and more unhappy, fattening them for medication (homefool's toxic SSRI placebos, "thanks Obamacare") and slaughter (don't even get me started on the consolidation in the funeral industry, raising prices dramatically for added "services" that haven't really improved on the ancient process of digging a hole and filling it in).

Congratulations. The "stupidity alarm" has been tripped, which triggers the ignore function. Adios!

deepcgi says

pushes for higher wages

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=qGG

blue is jobs
red is prime age 25-54 population
green is # job-seekers / jobs, right axis

"reserve army of labour"

the takeaway here is that the economy is generally doing pretty well on a jobs vs. population basis, 1970-1990 these were at parity, the 1990s good times and 2000s bubble boom time got us pretty high over the red curve, and we've recovered most of that now.

The green line, though, shows that times are still tough for jobseekers.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=qGI

shows that people are quitting jobs now at the rate they were at the bottom of the dotcom recession.

You can delete my posts all you want, but fortunately, you can't delete the truth. I know it, you know it, and your alien masters know it.

Keep trying to distract people with your CIA and organized crime BS--we know better. We know the truth.

How much are you getting paid, anyway??

Disgusting.

All invertebrates that allow themselves to be infringed upon by carrying a permit for an "arms" which is not a requirement listed in the 2nd Amendment know that in a medical emergency taking the gunpowder from a cartridge with juice & chewing on the lead will cure any ill including the gunshot wound they received when they were shot by another CCer.

"Insurance! We don't need no stinkin' insurance."

sbh says

And food , once consumed, has no store of value and is never resold.

Thus, the "greater fool" theory does not apply to food, except in times of extreme scarcity or hyperinflation. During wartime, or in current Zimbabwe, food prices can inflate dramatically. Bubbles Ben (and his faithful replacement, Old Yellen) have been playing with fire, jeopardizing currency stability in order to prop up housing prices. As with bankruptcy, price inflation can happen gradually, then suddenly.

tatupu70 says

I wonder if part of the issue is that housing is used to stratify--housing is bid up so that only people similar to you can afford it.

The trophy effect explains much of the inflation in trophy destinations like Nantucket, where the rise of the 1% has lifted the price of trophy housing dramatically. It also explains some of the effect in the RSFBA, but proportionally less as you look beyond the 1% neighborhoods. Realtors might tell you that every shack has the potential to lure the 1%, e.g. if a dot-con CEO moves in next door and decides to buy the whole neighborhood, but the actual likelihood of that happening trails off to lottery probabilities.

sbh says

Debt plays a much more substantial role in consumption and production of housing than in that of food. And food , once consumed, has no store of value and is never resold.

How to explain rent then? Debt shouldn't influence rental costs. But housing costs are generally at or near rental parity...

tatupu70 says

How to explain rent then? Debt shouldn't influence rental costs.

Of course it does. Renting is the substitute to buying. If the price of either goes up, then the value of the substitute increases along with it. In the "zoned zone," where supply of both is fixed, Fed QE yield suppression drives price inflation in both buying and renting.

curious2 says

The trophy effect explains much of the inflation in trophy destinations like Nantucket, where the rise of the 1% has lifted the price of trophy housing dramatically. It also explains some of the effect in the RSFBA, but proportionally less as you look beyond the 1% neighborhoods. Realtors might tell you that every shack has the potential to lure the 1%, e.g. if a dot-con CEO moves in next door and decides to buy the whole neighborhood, but the actual likelihood of that happening trails off to lottery probabilities.

I think it's more widespread than that. There are CEOs in every area that want to live near other CEOs or high income people. And even if you can't afford to live with the 1%-- someone making $100K/year wants to live with other people making $100K... It might not be the top neighborhood, but it's in the next tier, and so on...

bgamall4 says

Straw Man says

Should illegal alien be allowed to practice law?

In this particular case with the young man granted a law license, his dad was a legal alien, and applied for that status for his son. Apparently that was accepted, but the government is so shorthanded it didn't process the application.

Boo-fuckin-hoo: millions of people wait for years (or even decades) to get their status adjusted legally. But this guy can't wait - he's special. Because, apparently, we don't have enough sleazeball lawyers.

sbh says

And food , once consumed, has no store of value and is never resold.

tatupu70 says

And even if you can't afford to live with the 1%-- someone making $100K/year wants to live with other people making $100K... It might not be the top neighborhood, but it's in the next tier, and so on...

That is an interesting point, perhaps Americans want to pay as much as they can for housing, to live among others similarly situated and avoid the riff raff. The availability of mortgage debt enables them to bid up prices, which buyers choose to do so they can dwell among a higher socioeconomic class, and send their kids to public school with those kids. It might explain why many people accept current Fed policy, i.e. they think the privilege of living among others with good credit is worth incurring a lifetime of debt. Money (via credit) is merely the medium of exchange, while exclusivity is a perceived value.

If you're not too kooked out about Big Data, then very often, the discounts that accompany filling out a survey with a few benign questions can save you big.

edvard2 says

Congratulations. The "stupidity alarm" has been tripped, which triggers the ignore function. Adios!

Do you print out your shit list out, and go over it late at night with a Scotch and rocks and make drunken comments on each one on your list, into a tape recorder?

Hey that gives me an idea for an app. "The Shit Lister".
You can put all of the social network pariahs on it, and manage them share them with other like minded haters.

Pissed off at every body? There's an app for that!

Among the increasing costs to raise cattle is a doubling of corn prices due to its demand for use to produce ethanol. The use corn ultimately results in better barbecue if it is mixed into the cow’s diet, Early said. “That’s what they feed to the cows for the white fat, which is what we want,” Early said. ”If they feed them $8 corn, that’s going to run our prices up.”

This sounds like bullshit. The leftover mash from distilleries (silage) makes excellent animal feed. The demand for ethanol should DECREASE the cost of animal feed as there is very little else ethanol producers can do with this waste product.

Call it Crazy says

Thanks to persistent unemployment and low availability of low-skill jobs....

and dairy subsidies and the fact that sugar is addictive so people buy ice cream and get fat....

Don't all these 1600 people have houses? Why do they need to work, they can just use the houseATM card and pay themselves while they sleep. Working is for fools in this country.

Obligatory: More people applied for that job than signed up for Obamacare.

See this aint so hard? I don't see what all the fuss about John Stewart, Steve Cobert and Bill Mahr is about, it's easy when your President is a fucking Moron.

article says.....
The survey of AFIRE members said that the United States is the most "stable and secure" country for real-estate investment "by a wide margin." Survey respondents also said that the United States is also the best market in terms of capital appreciation and for real estate purchases in 2014.

strategist says......
If that won't turn you into a bull, nothing will.
The top 5 were all tourist attractions, commercial centers, sun belt, coastal. This is where the future is my friends.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Don't all these 1600 people have houses? Why do they need to work, they can just use the houseATM card and pay themselves while they sleep. Working is for fools in this country.

They need to work to pay the rent that keeps going up.

Most of you are acting like the Fed's creation of 15 Trillion dollars has not been the largest factor in prices of real estate.

The derivatives nightmare that began with the RE crash will take decades to unwind. bit by the Fed's own admission, it's already found its way into the stock market. It will find its way to main street and the result will be inflation.

You are betting everything on the manager of Kmart living in a 900 square foot home with two other families rather than pressing for higher wages or higher prices of goods.

Didn't anyone notice all of the money that flowed into shorts-coverage the day the Fed announced a future decrease in QE? The actual equities did nothing to justify that huge jump in the index.

I would predict huge crashes in common consumer-oriented stocks to be the catalyst more than steadily decreasing living standards and wage pressure. The stock market is based on nothing but faith in derivatives at this point. The amount the US consumes on behalf of the world is leveraged 50 to 1.

What is happening in Spain can happen anywhere.

Well,of course there's no one thinking about how many ways they could use small recreational drones to FUBAR the homeland as in unsecured infrastructure.

"Many current renters have financial, credit and mobility constraints," said Luis Mejia, CoStar's director of multifamily research, adding he isn't as worried about apartment oversupply as some of his peers.

Luis found a polite way of saying that renters are drug-dealing loser deadbeats who can't move because they're registered sex offenders.

This jibes with the general image of renters in the media.

deepcgi says

Most of you are acting like the Fed's creation of 15 Trillion dollars

actually $3T and counting:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=qHw

has not been the largest factor in prices of real estate.

and that had nothing to do with rents, which are also up a lot and supporting the home prices, since specuvestors are such a large portion of the market now.

The stock market is based on nothing but faith in derivatives at this point.

that and:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CP

which is the power of:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=qHx

($24,000 of gov't spending per adult in the US)

I guess. Conservatives say this gov't spending "crowds out" the job creators, but that's bullshit. This spending keeps the 99%ers in the game of our crooked economy.

Strategist says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Don't all these 1600 people have houses? Why do they need to work, they can just use the houseATM card and pay themselves while they sleep. Working is for fools in this country.

They need to work to pay the rent that keeps going up.

No, what they need to do is get another NINJA, default and squat for another 3-5 years.

Tough crowd. That many people wanted a job and applied, and still no respect.

aint no food inflation, i can still get two delicious tacos at jack in the box for 99 cents, same as when i worked there when i was in hi skoo !

casandra says

aint no food inflation, i can still get two delicious tacos at jack in the box for 99 cents, same as when i worked there when i was in hi skoo !

Judging by your grammar you are in your 6th senior year...

Well that should motivate builders to build even more residential housing. Hopefully it might even motivate citizens to protest against space squandering #$^&@ sport stadiums in favor of more housing.

beetles says

Tough crowd. That many people wanted a job and applied, and still no respect.

It they really wanted the job badly, they would have applied harder.

Capital gains tax rates are so high that the wealthy can't afford to hire that many people.

Strategist says

That's scary in itself....

What's scary is that you would take seriously anything published by the NAR. Foreign buyers have been buying 7-10% of US real estate for decades.

Should dual citizen of US/Israel be vice chair of our Federal Reserve Bank?

Gentiles are not part of the appointment process.

Strategist says

If that won't turn you into a bull, nothing will.

Much of this is commercial property, NYC and Chicago, as was the case
with Saudi, Japanse and recent with Chinese state run investment firms.

They certainly are not talking about rinky dinky eichler in Palo Alto.
That wouldnt be Bullish.. that would be laughable....

HydroCabron is Kochel 271 says

Many current renters have financial, credit and mobility constraints

= buncha low-rent subhuman scumbags

Call it Crazy says

Is it possible they're trying to move their money OUT of their country before that economy crashes and burns... Then, with Bennie printing his 85 Billion a month of QE, they feel their investment is "safer" here??

Strategist says

The survey of AFIRE members said that the United States is the most "stable and secure" country for real-estate investment "by a wide margin."

That's scary in itself....

I'm sure they would start getting their money out when their economy sinks or political problems like they have in the Middle East which is always in a mess. I do know a lot of Iranians fled their country with bags full of greenbacks when the Shah of Iran got overthrown in 1979 and early 1980's.
No matter what, you have to ask yourself why is it America that is the most favored destination not just to immigrate, but also to invest in. How many want to go to Russia or Africa?

thomaswong.1986 says

Strategist says

If that won't turn you into a bull, nothing will.

Much of this is commercial property, NYC and Chicago, as was the case

with Saudi, Japanse and recent with Chinese state run investment firms.

They certainly are not talking about rinky dinky eichler in Palo Alto.

That wouldnt be Bullish.. that would be laughable....

I think they are buying everything. Commercial, residential, and corporations.
Every one but Americans have faith in America. Sad.

New Renter says

Well that should motivate builders to build even more residential housing. Hopefully it might even motivate citizens to protest against space squandering #$^&@ sport stadiums in favor of more housing.

The builders barely built anything in the last 6 years. Even today with a sharp jump in construction new homes being built is well below historic norms. It will take years to get back to equilibrium and in the meantime prices of homes and rents would have to increase.