patrick.net

thunderlips11 says

Elizabeth Warren in 2016.

Agreed, but that is a pipe dream.

I don't want Hilary president, but it seems inevitable at this point. Maybe if the Democrats offered the Republicans a choice: Hilary or Warren for 8 years. If you hate Hilary more, then drop out of the 2016 and 2020 races.

Dan8267 says

I don't want Hilary president

thunderlips11 says

Oh Lord, spare us from Hitlary

She'll look good compared to President-- What? Rubio? Cruz? Christie? JEB?

WOW! The UNtrustworthy are certainly in control of what information is apparent to the people!

Say hey! This was in the Wall Street Journal on March 30, 1999. Note "... how much it will buy."

Holy cow/interesting/compelling ...!

And where is it up to date??? Right here ... see the first chart shown in this thread.
Recent Dow day is Monday, January 13, 2014 __ Level is 104.2

WOW! It is hideous that this is hidden! Is there any such "Homes, Inflation Adjusted"? Yes! This was in the New York Times on August 27, 2006:

And up to date (by me) is here:
http://patrick.net/?p=1219038&c=999083#comment-999083

WOW! The UNtrustworthy are certainly in control of what information is apparent to the people!

And http://patrick.net/?p=1230886

I can only hope the next president hasn't been heard from yet.

What I find odd, that here we are only 10 months away from running the American limo through the car wash again. And there's not any noise about who's great and who's sucks.
They are all walking on egg shells and potato chips, and hope like hell that the lower they lay low, then the better their chances of getting reelected will be.

In other words, if the current motherfuckers in Washington, on both Democrat and Republican side were to make a big campaign push patting them selves on the backs on how well they've done the last 4 years. Then everyone of them would be replaced by the opposition. Because they will have inspired millions of voters who plan on sitting this next election out.
But if they are put to the task to reelect the current no good sons of bitches they will put their bongs and bags of Doritos down long enough to make damn sure that doesn't happen.

I can't think of a single person I'd vote for for President, because not one of them has promised to euthanize and eat Congress.

Since 1928, every winning GOP ticket ('52, '56, '68, '72, '80, '84, '88, '00, '04, '08) has had someone named Richard Nixon or George Bush on it. Before that, Americans voted Roosevelts into office 5 times!

Now the Democrats may ask us to put the Clintons in the White House two more times, and Jeb Bush makes every shortlist of viable 2016 nominees.

Fuck that shit!

I can't believe that the pool of possible presidents isn't deeper than this.

Americans need to learn to vote on some basis besides name recognition.

Call it Crazy says

Hmmm..... That's funny...., Check out the approval rating he has in the "blue" state of NJ...

That's the point. He's more popular in blue states than red states. And folks like that don't win primaries.

How's he polling in South Carolina??

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch says

all of our acumen, influence and politesse

You serve up the politesse.

The part about the military they love is The Military Industrial Complex.

Wonder if they are considering a new motto: DIE in COMBAT!

Lets see - Democrats control 2/3 of the Federal Government (Senate and Presidency) but this is all Republican's fault?

Pretty sad that the ONLY cuts they can find in our big bloated government are benefits to our veterans - some who served 3 to 6 tours overseas while all the politicians, staffers and lobbyists in DC have seen their fortunes dramatically rise under Obama.

I think Republicans are terrified that Obama will shut down the government again knowing the media will blame it all on Republicans.

thomaswong.1986 says

I spent my early life in the so called better schools ... Fremont High grad...

The people that are buying for schools are not buying Fremont High.

thomaswong.1986 says

no one know where your next job will be or if your employer will move to the other side of the county... I worked all over so no point picking and chosing...

That's true, one may switch jobs or the company might move. Someone living in Cupertino will be pretty much ok if the commute to North SJ becomes a commute to Menlo Park. Someone living in Silver Creek may find the commute to North SJ ok, but, Menlo Park would be too far. There's a few tech companies in Edenvale, but, hardly any south of Silver Creek.

In your next comment you note that your daily commute is LG to North SJ via 17/880 or San Tomas. Yes, that's not a bad commute. So you can see why someone might choose LG over SC.

JFP says

This sums up Thomas totally. This is a quote from 2007. Then, he'll give you charts from 2011.

2007 or 2011.. the principle is the same since mid 80s... high costs housing is a job killer for Silicon Valley (deflationary industies) ... why else did you see Japanese snatch a good chunk of our global business. It was true 20 years ago, today and 20 years into the future...

jazz music says

new paradigms

no one believes in that...

jazz music says

1.) Inventories remain at extreme lows.

Laughable since much of the inventory is unlisted.. Pocket Listings.. up to 25% are unlisted in No California (SFBA) Search for it...

California Association Warns About 'Pocket Listings' | Realtor ...
realtormag.realtor.org › News & Commentary › Daily News‎
Jun 27, 2013 - ... are reportedly pocket listings in some Northern California markets, and ... warning sellers about pocket listings,” Inman News (June 25, 2013).

California Realtors warning sellers about pocket listings | Inman News
www.inman.com/.../25/california-realtors-warning-sellers-about-pocket-l...‎
Jun 25, 2013 - Study finds pocket listings accounting for 1 in 4 sales in some Northern California markets.

jazz music says

2.) ARM, interest only and other loans risky loans enable people who can't afford the houses to buy them once again.

Irrational exuberance needs no ARMS.. so where were the ARMs during the 1986-1990 boom and then bust?

jazz music says

Big financial entities are now the mothers of all slumlords. Granted that was more prevalent in lower end SFR markets.

Not their thing... and will not last.

jazz music says

http://ochousingnews.com/troubling-evidence-new-coastal-california-housing-bubble/

Not the first time we saw a bust, wonder if they will remember the last one as well or repeat being in denial.

SiO2 says

In your next comment you note that your daily commute is LG to North SJ via 17/880 or San Tomas. Yes, that's not a bad commute. So you can see why someone might choose LG over SC.

over my 30 years.. its been all over the place. some consultants I know, commute to SF, East Bay and Santa Clara all in a weekly basis. So 'idea' of having a short commute is alien for some ...

lattitude says

I don't get what you're trying to prove here? Once again, cherry picking... So you're basically implying that the house prices (thus cost of living) are killing off companies success here in the bay area or in general? Wouldn't you think that by now we'd be seeing more of an effect of this? Last I checked this area seems to be doing alright (even with these house prices). How does one explain that?

Go ask a local CFO/CEO ! why do we have so many Tech workers outside of SFBA... cheaper, and frankly you dont need to next the mothership...

sorry if your engineer and think its your right to live here, but you work on long term projects which have nothing to do with operations... You do understand what Operations means... "money making"...

JFP says

He refuses to understand that the tech industry is about Google, Facebook, Apple, and the rest of the internet companies now. And, that's what is different about now.

advertising isnt Tech... as such, dont hold your breath, real tech are products that are essential and needed for any mission critical enterprise.

advertising is more akin to discretionary expenditure...

thomaswong.1986 says

Laughable since much of the inventory is unlisted.. Pocket Listings.. up to 25% are unlisted in No California (SFBA) Search for it...

I did.

MLSListings Inc. is the MLS service for Santa Clara, San Mateo, Santa Cruz, Monterey and San Benito counties. It estimates that the percentage of homes sold in its territory that never hit the MLS rose from 12 percent in 2011 to 15 percent last year, and grew to 26 percent in the first quarter of this year. (2013)

In the first quarter, 14 percent of properties in the South Bay MLS went from active to closed in five days or less, said Jim Harrison, president and CEO of MLSListings, “which means they were probably sold before they were put into the MLS.”

http://blog.sfgate.com/pender/2013/08/19/pocket-listings-grow-as-more-sellers-keep-homes-off-mls/

jazz music says

You don't think money can be hidden.

thomas finance is your area not mine, but instead of opening a bank account per se you invest in a corporation. A "shell corporation." More accurately a shell corporation broker/service network as typically found on remote elite island countries and some other places too.

a corporation is a approved legal right to exist within a jurisdiction. So how can you hide a corporation which is known to the nation it operates. You just dont walk across any border and then prop a corporation. Once you apply and get approval, your now taxed and audited...

jazz music says

They have board of director meetings and take care of all the fuss for you and "invest" the money in networks of shell corporations so that if you go to Belize or Grenada or Bermuda or Belgium or Switzerland or on and on and win a court judgement in that country, you will find out that the assets are actually held by a different shell corporation

Delaware... why are the majority of US/foreign companies registered as
DE companies... are they all Shell Companies ?

jazz music says

Here is one example MAYBE from USA today, (it looks like it)

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/money/companies/regulation/2007-02-23-tax-havens-usat_x.htm

There will be huckersters and criminals... how big was the Italian Mafia ...

thomaswong.1986 says

bob2356 says

So the answer to my question is ????????????????????? Where did 500+ billion in suspense file money come from if illegals didn't pay it in along with billions in income taxes? Still waiting, probably forever.

you reconcile it... perhaps unlike the private industry you double counted it and its really not there. And that is your answer ... Reconcile it and confirm it. If the banks can do it across all its account holders every month, it should be a snap for the Govt to do it as well...

So the SS admin double counted 500 billion in fica money coming in, it's not really there? Are you serious? This is your answer? Epic fail, try again. Do you even know what the suspense file is? Do you have even the vaguest clue how companies pay FICA? The odds of you actually being involved in finance or accounting are pretty much zero.

thomaswong.1986 says

you have 20 Million Criminals in the USA who are infact Foreign Citizens

earning unreported income back home.

How are people in the US earning unreported income back home? That makes less than zero sense.

jazz music says

There are a great number of such providers that exist for hiding money in shell corporations. They have board of director meetings and take care of all the fuss for you and "invest" the money in networks of shell corporations so that if you go to Belize or Grenada or Bermuda or Belgium or Switzerland or on and on and win a court judgement in that country, you will find out that the assets are actually held by a different shell corporation, and to get the assets you will have to lawyer up in a number of countries until hoping to finally find the one holding assets. Years and millions would be spent and so the money is IN EFFECT beyond reach of laws of any country while simultaneously carefully obeying laws of incorporation at all times.

That doesn't make any sense either. I don't understand what the laws of incorporation have to do with anything. Shell corporations still have to put the money in bank accounts, they don't hide it in a mattress. Going to a number of countries means using a multi national bank. There are very few countries, if any, in today's world that won't honer a request for bank records in a legitimate criminal investigation. If you think Belize, etc. etc, etc. aren going to protect you once subpeona and indictments are issued you are just dreaming. They will protect you from the IRS going on a fishing expedition, but not when there is an actual provable crime. That's what fatca is all about, letting the IRS go fishing without having any evidence

bob2356 says

you have 20 Million Criminals in the USA who are infact Foreign Citizens


earning unreported income back home.

How are people in the US earning unreported income back home? That makes less than zero sense.

If your a foreign citizen, working in the USA, your income is taxable back home. Since your not reporting it makes you a criminal... simple !

You think the 20M illegal aliens are reporting their earned income to their
respective taxing authority "back home" ?

Like i said, not my game.. you figure it out why the Govt is screwed up.
You think the private industry is equally screwed up in its accounting/bookkeeping?
Think again... we have standards...and we dont accept "close enough for Govt work"

bob2356 says

So the SS admin double counted 500 billion in fica money coming in, it's not really there? Are you serious? This is your answer? Epic fail, try again. Do you even know what the suspense file is? Do you have even the vaguest clue how companies pay FICA? The odds of you actually being involved in finance or accounting are pretty much zero.

thomaswong.1986 says

JFP says

This sums up Thomas totally. This is a quote from 2007. Then, he'll give you charts from 2011.

2007 or 2011.. the principle is the same since mid 80s... high costs housing is a job killer for Silicon Valley (deflationary industies) ... why else did you see Japanese snatch a good chunk of our global business. It was true 20 years ago, today and 20 years into the future...

Yet, the competition for engineers among internet and software companies in SV remains intense. You are living in the past. You are fixated on hardware, while the future is software.

thomaswong.1986 says

JFP says

He refuses to understand that the tech industry is about Google, Facebook, Apple, and the rest of the internet companies now. And, that's what is different about now.

advertising isnt Tech... as such, dont hold your breath, real tech are products that are essential and needed for any mission critical enterprise.

advertising is more akin to discretionary expenditure...

Apple, Palantir, VMWare, EBay, Paypal, Amazon, Walmart and a lot of other software companies are not about advertising. The tech world right now is all about software. Even networking is increasingly software based. You are living in yesterday's tech world.

New Renter says

It got those numbers by comparing home sales in county recorders’ offices with
those in the MLS.

So, all FSBO's are pocket listings then?

tatupu70 says

New Renter says

It got those numbers by comparing home sales in county recorders’ offices with

those in the MLS.

So, all FSBO's are pocket listings then?

I'd assume anything not listed on the MLS to be a pocket listing. There are websites which allow owners to put their homes directly on the MLS so those would not be a pocket listing.

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch says

The Clintfucks are just criminally insane assholes. "Bush tricked me!" Wow.

No smarter than Republicans. Unfit for public office.

Homeboy says

Also non sequitur. Iraq had nothing to do with the 9/11 attack. If you believe otherwise, you are an IDIOT.

Nor Iran...

15 of 19 were Saudi Arabian, the rest were Egyptian and Moroccan, "allies" all.

61% of Foreign Fighters in Iraq were Saudi Arabians in 2005

In 2007, after years of strange reticence to reveal foreign insurgent nationality, Pentagon finally admitted that 45% of foreign militants in Iraq were Saudi Arabian nationals, and half of all detainees.

Page with tons of links to sources:

http://www.asecondlookatthesaudis.com/

We invaded and bombed the wrong country.

JFP says

Yet, the competition for engineers among internet and software companies in SV remains intense. You are living in the past. You are fixated on hardware, while the future is software.

Agreed. Though some of what Thomas says is true, in that some companies have either added or moved some operations to cheaper states, the Bay Area is still the undisputed hub of the tech industry in the US. Why? Mainly because its also where most of the VC capital is.

As an aside, I can say that prior to buying a house in the bay area, I did look for work in Austin, Raleigh Durham, Atlanta, and even Salt lake city. Even though there seems to be a non-stop plethora of articles about oh-how-cool places like Austin are, with scads of Californians fleeing for its cheaper housing and so on, I can say after visiting these places that their tech industries are a teeny fraction of what exists in the BA. What's more, most of the jobs I applied for were offering as little as 50% of what I had made in the BA.

edvard2 says

What's more, most of the jobs I applied for were offering as little as 50% of what I had made in the BA.

How did that lower salary look when the lower cost of housing and tax bracket were factored in? Do these places perhaps offer a more reasonable lifestyle than what you might have here in the SBA? You might actually get to work *only* 40- hours a week. You might *only* have spend a total of 1/2 hr in your commute.

The more people that flee to such places the more the talent pool grows. That will attract more employers and VC money.

New Renter says

edvard2 says

What's more, most of the jobs I applied for were offering as little as 50% of what I had made in the BA.

How did that lower salary look when the lower cost of housing and tax bracket were factored in? Do these places perhaps offer a more reasonable lifestyle than what you might have here in the SBA? You might actually get to work *only* 40- hours a week. You might *only* have spend a total of 1/2 hr in your commute.

The more people that flee to such places the more the talent pool grows. That will attract more employers and VC money.

Yes, I've looked at the possibility of relocating my family to a lower cost area in the Midwest or South and even with the lower salary I think we would be materially better off. Just as an example, I was talking to a company in Indianapolis and the salary range they were talking about was 80 - 100k which would be a 17-30% base salary cut, but with the lower income taxes it would be more like a 7-20% cut and I could buy a nice big house in a good neighborhood for 300k or less. The main drawbacks for me would be in lifestyle (no public transportation, not much to do) and culture.

bdrasin says

Yes, I've looked at the possibility of relocating my family to a lower cost area in the Midwest or South and even with the lower salary I think we would be materially better off.

I have a friend who owns a condo in SF but is applying for a job in Indianapolis. He tells me the city is a lot nicer than it is given credit for and that the cost of living is about 45% lower than the BA. The job also requires a lot of international travel. If he gets the job he will keep his condo (rent it) so he won't be priced out if he decides to return someday. I have another older friend who sold his home in the Oakland hills in 1999 and moved to North Carolina. He hoped to move back to California for retirement, but now sees that as a long shot. Priced out.

rooemoore says

bdrasin says

Yes, I've looked at the possibility of relocating my family to a lower cost area in the Midwest or South and even with the lower salary I think we would be materially better off.

I have a friend who owns a condo in SF but is applying for a job in Indianapolis. He tells me the city is a lot nicer than it is given credit for and that the cost of living is about 45% lower than the BA. The job also requires a lot of international travel. If he gets the job he will keep his condo (rent it) so he won't be priced out if he decides to return someday. I have another older friend who sold his home in the Oakland hills in 1999 and moved to North Carolina. He hoped to move back to California for retirement, but now sees that as a long shot. Priced out.

There are two problems with moving out of California if you are in Tech:

1) if you leave, you are going to be priced out of buying a house pretty quickly.
2) There is a much smaller pool of jobs to choose from. So, if you do move there it's difficult to find your next job that means lower chance to advance your career. There's also less chance to work on cutting edge technologies.

New Renter says

How did that lower salary look when the lower cost of housing and tax bracket were factored in? Do these places perhaps offer a more reasonable lifestyle than what you might have here in the SBA? You might actually get to work *only* 40- hours a week. You might *only* have spend a total of 1/2 hr in your commute.

The more people that flee to such places the more the talent pool grows. That will attract more employers and VC money.

Here's the reality I encountered with Austin, which has perhaps the second largest tech industry- affordable city wise. The pay was a lot less, housing was definitely less but not so fast...

The cheaper homes, and when I say cheaper, I'm talking in the 150-250k range, these were just about all located in the far-flung, mall-infested burbs. We're talking a sea of plastic clad Mcmansions stacked on one another next to big shopping mall full of big box stores and chain eateries. In other words: hell.

The areas that people like me would want to live in, as in an older neighborhood with character, access to local mom and pop stores, and within a reasonable distance to downtown were pricey. How pricey? More like 350-500k pricey. Sounds cheap( er) than the Bay Area until you see that the property taxes in TX are sky-high. As in some of those nicer areas the tax would be 3% a year and what's more, if the house goes up in value, then you'll have to pay even more. Suddenly a 300k house becomes a very expensive prospect.

Lastly, if any of you have been in tech long enough you know that nobody retires from the same company with a golden watch. If one is lucky these days they might squeeze say- 2-5 years out of a job at one place before going to another. In the BA... not a big deal as there's zillions of jobs. In Austin? You'd better hold onto that job for a long time because there are a small fraction of the available jobs and from my experience, competition for those jobs from the hordes of college grads and Cali- relocatees was fierce.

My take on the whole thing is that one could probably do pretty well simply working in the Bay Area for 15-20 years, save their California money, and then relocate somewhere else cheap. If you've saved enough money then you can then choose to live in either a smaller city or maybe even a rural area that isn't tied to tech jobs or whatnot. If you have enough, just buy a house or property for cash, stick the rest in retirement, have no debts, and get some stupid job that simply pays the utility bills and provides health insurance.

As for us, well we bought a house in the BA about 2 years ago and due to the timing, the cost for us is fairly small. And so we're still saving a lot. It is possible to do well here. Its about patience, saving, and timing.