patrick.net

bubblesitter says

Call it Crazy says

but a 14% increase in supply.

Just curious how do they come up with that precise number? Now they can read future sellers mind?

It's JPMorgan, they make the market do what they want it to do......

Most of the time those predictions are wrong.
My prediction.....Orange County median prices will increase by 50% to $800,000 by 2017. Then they will rest for a couple of years.

43815

Strategist 2014 Mar 10, 8:32am

smaulgld says

Sounds like what we all discussed/predicted last summer (while being called

names)

lol--so, let's get this straight. After being 100% wrong last year and putting every poster that dared to disagree with you on ignore so your threads were worthless, you are now claiming victory because an opinion article agrees wtih you?

Are you sure that 14% increase in inventory--even if it occurs--will be enough to make a difference??

It will still be low inventory, and prices will still go up.
The bears will still claim victory. Bulls will still laugh at them.

43816

tatupu70 2014 Mar 10, 9:44am

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2014/03/russia-warns-ukraine-over-lawlessness-201431015401938919.html

tatupu70 says

Are you sure that 14% increase in inventory--even if it occurs--will be enough to make a difference??

So, how many years of inventory do you need to make you happy??

Well, 6 months is generally considered a balanced market--less than that is a sellers market, more is a buyer's market. Will 14% get us to 6 months?

43817

smaulgld 2014 Mar 10, 9:47am

Strategist says

tatupu70 says

smaulgld says

Sounds like what we all discussed/predicted last summer (while being called

names)

lol--so, let's get this straight. After being 100% wrong last year and putting every poster that dared to disagree with you on ignore so your threads were worthless, you are now claiming victory because an opinion article agrees wtih you?

Are you sure that 14% increase in inventory--even if it occurs--will be enough to make a difference??

It will still be low inventory, and prices will still go up.

The bears will still claim victory. Bulls will still laugh at them.

The only people I put on ignore were not people I disagreed with but those that constantly resorted to name calling when they disagreed

43818

RWSGFY 2014 Mar 10, 11:36am

thunderlips11 says

The Eastern Part is the literal Homeland of Russia, where the Rus were concentrated in Konugaarde (Boatland, now called Kiev) before they were driven north into the Deep Forests by the Mongols. That Cossack region is very Orthodox and very Russian

Where do you people find junk like this? The only "very Russian" part of the Eastern Ukraine are the industrial cities where all the Russians were brought in after WW2. The countryside has always been and remains Ukrainian in terms of language, culture and self-identification. Yes, its Orthodox, but Orthodox != Russian.

43819

RWSGFY 2014 Mar 10, 11:39am

thunderlips11 says

Note that nothing of the Language Bill has appeared on MSM TV that I've seen

The repeal of the Language Bill was vetoed by acting President. Besides, the Bill itself was adopted during Yanukovich reign with blatant violations of the Parliament procedure and most probably wouldn't survive challenge in Supreme Court anyway.Moreover, it does not conform to the European Charter for Regional or Minority Languages. It will have to be repealed and replaced, there is no other way, but for now it stands.

BTW, Russian was never banned in Ukraine before the Language Bill was adopted, so saying that repeal of the Bill "bans Russian" is pure idiocy.

43820

FortWayne 2014 Mar 10, 12:41pm

Speaking of Ukraine, saw this gem today. From what I understand, Nazi party in Ukraine is trying to fight Russian army and cause other unrests.

43821

indigenous 2014 Mar 10, 12:59pm

Tru Dat

43822

Bubbabeefcake 2014 Mar 10, 1:32pm

Consumer Confidence is quickly dwindling, Central Banks cooperation is quickly fading, so which one will go rouge first...hmmmm! Maybe they're all sorta going rogue at once, now that wack-o-mole economics policies have lost the rest of it's shelf life....HURRY Yellen Taper before it's to late, TAPER!

43823

indigenous 2014 Mar 10, 1:36pm

Bubbabear says

wack-o-mole economics

Good one

43824

RWSGFY 2014 Mar 10, 2:35pm

FortWayne says

Speaking of Ukraine, saw this gem today. From what I understand, Nazi party in Ukraine is trying to fight Russian army and cause other unrests

This is 100% Russian propaganda. They are trying to create pretext for further invasion, just like they did with Crimea. The so-called "unrest" in Eastern Ukraine is created by Russian nationals bused in from Russia proper through the open border to riot on the streets of Ukrainian cities. I won't even comment the stupid bullshit re Right Sector being "Nazi party which uses uses swastika signs": their sign is a variation of Ukrainian Coat of Arms (Trident) with sword in the middle.

Here's the official Coat of Arms in colors of Ukrainian flag:

Here's the sign Right Sector uses (red and black are historical colors of Ukrainian battle flag):

Swastika, my ass.

PS. I especially like " Source: Agencies" at the bottom of the page. Epic fail.

43825 Miike 2014 Mar 10, 3:23pm

Strategist says

My prediction.....Orange County median prices will increase by 50% to $800,000 by 2017. Then they will rest for a couple of years.

you are joking right? haha

43826

tatupu70 2014 Mar 10, 8:29pm

You're already past 6 months...

Not in my area we're not.

43827

tatupu70 2014 Mar 10, 9:53pm

The average real inflation rate since 2000 has been running above 4% if you use
the same methodology as the 1970's

Yes, if you use the wrong methodology, you can get whatever answer you'd like to get.

43828 Reality 2014 Mar 10, 10:53pm

Reality says

The average real inflation rate since 2000 has been running above 4% if you use

the same methodology as the 1970's

Yes, if you use the wrong methodology, you can get whatever answer you'd like to get.

Correct. That's why government statistics should be taken with a big grain of salt. The Nixon years' 4% "high inflation" was using the methodology back then, so in order for numbers to comparable, one would have to use the same methodology.

43829 Reality 2014 Mar 10, 10:55pm

control point says

Reality says

The average real inflation rate since 2000 has been running above 4% if you use

the same methodology as the 1970's.

So you believe prices are about 68% higher across the board than 2000, compared to CPI saying they are about 39% higher? (2.5% annual inflation)

Gasoline in 2000 was at or below $1 per gallon. Today, it is around $3.50 per gallon. 68% increase would be understatement.

What if you are wrong, and inflation isn't 4%. Then what happens to your thesis?

I said 4% or more. 4% was probably understatement.

43830 Reality 2014 Mar 10, 11:01pm

spydah_hh says

No, I am sorry but you're a socialist

lol--economics is a binary system then? Either you're a soclialist or you're for unregulated free market?

It gets worse than that: at some point, whatever little room each of us make for government coercion will one day paint the person as socialist when people in the future work out better market solutions. It's a moving goal post, just like whatever job we do today will be considered menial drudgery if not outright barbaric at some point in the future.

43831

RentingForHalfTheCost 2014 Mar 10, 11:05pm

Call it Crazy says

You're already past 6 months...

Not in my area we're not.

You have to look further than your street. Maybe around you they are all still holding their breath underwater. Or they are squatters who are living with no housing expenses, besides cleaning up their own feces from the back yard because the water was cut-off.

43832

tatupu70 2014 Mar 10, 11:11pm

so in order for numbers to comparable, one would have to use the same
methodology.

I see. So to compare inflation back to the 1900s, we should look at the price of horse drawn carraiges and kerosine?

43833

tatupu70 2014 Mar 10, 11:12pm

It gets worse than that: at some point, whatever little room each of us make for
government coercion will one day paint the person as socialist when people in
the future work out better market solutions.

Government coercion? What the hell are you talking about?

43834

tatupu70 2014 Mar 10, 11:13pm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_market
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socialism

Gasoline in 2000 was at or below $1 per gallon. Today, it is around $3.50 per
gallon. 68% increase would be understatement.

Yes, because cherry picking the one commodity that has increased the most is how one should measure inflation.

43835 spydah_hh 2014 Mar 10, 11:19pm

Tim Aurora says

That is a very broad definition of socialism and very narrow definition of capitalism.

It is what it is there is no grey areas when defining these two forms of governments. Socialism is just a form of government intervention (centralize market) and in most cases a redistribution of wealth. Free Markets is what it says, a free market enterprise where there is very little to no government intervention in markets.

43836 spydah_hh 2014 Mar 10, 11:27pm

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/07/consumerpriceindex.asp
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Turk/turk_jan252008.html
http://www.silverdoctors.com/ron-paul-chained-cpi-chains-taxpayers/

I see. So to compare inflation back to the 1900s, we should look at the price of horse drawn carraiges and kerosine?

Oh this guy with his love of the CPI again. You're not understanding are you? You're still not getting it are you?

The ShadowStats CPI eliminates the changes made by the US government since the early 1980s to its own CPI measure. In other words, the ShadowsStats CPI is the same one the US government used to calculate inflation while Jimmy Carter was president.

The changes made by the government to its CPI were clearly introduced to lessen reported CPI inflation. A lower inflation rate reduces the cost-of-living increases the US government makes to welfare and Social Security recipients, thereby reducing its budget deficit. Welfare and Social Security recipients suffer the consequences. Their purchasing power is reduced because the payments they receive do not keep up with the real rate of inflation.

You can also say this goes for workers wages as well.

43837

tatupu70 2014 Mar 11, 1:22am

http://www.realestateabc.com/outlook.htm

Well, that settles it..... There's a NATIONWIDE inventory shortage because
there is limited houses to buy on Tat's street!!!

lol--you post NJ data and now you're trying to claim nationwide? You are the poster boy for disingenuous.

43838

tatupu70 2014 Mar 11, 1:26am

Here's the actual nationwide numbers in case you wanted to be honest for once.

"Inventory rose 2.2 percent by the end of January to 1.90 million existing homes on the market. At the current sales pace that represents a 4.9-month supply, up from December's 4.6-month supply. January's inventory was also up 7.3 percent from the year before. Realtors consider the market to be balanced between supply and demand when there is a 6-month supply."

43839

indigenous 2014 Mar 11, 2:08am

He did not seem to be so inclined with Syria?

Where does Soros fit into the NWO thing?

43840

NDrLoR 2014 Mar 11, 2:10am

"and, if possible, avoid future large-scale war."

It's encouraging to know that unlike the misguided dreamers of 1914-1918, there really will never be another war.

43841

RentingForHalfTheCost 2014 Mar 11, 2:32am

tatupu70 says

At the current sales pace that represents a 4.9-month supply

Almost a 5 month supply.... Gee, there's NOTHING to buy since we aren't at a 6 month supply..... Really??

To be fair. You are stretching things a bit when the data calculates a 4.9 and you exaggerate that all the way to 5! That is a whole 0.1 of BS. How can anyone believe you now in the face of the fully substantiated clame from tatapupoo that his area doesn't have inventory. The deep research of going door to door and tabulating all the data is far superior than your over-exaggeration. I mean adding a 0.1 to the number just to make your case. Shame on you and a big high-five to tatupupoo for all his hard work. I just went out and bought the 4 houses that were in his neighborhood so now that really is no inventory. I guess that means the home prices are going to approach infinity. Only Bill Gates could afford to be his neighbor now. Good on Tatapupoo, bad on CIC.

43842 control point 2014 Mar 11, 2:33am

What if you are wrong, and inflation isn't 4%. Then what happens to your
thesis?

I said 4% or more. 4% was probably understatement.

That doesn't answer the question. I know you think the statement is correct - What if you are wrong, what does that do to your thesis?

43843

indigenous 2014 Mar 11, 2:41am

Soros is NWO. Now, he thinks that the NWO could be used for good, for stopping bad loans, etc. I think he is wrong, totally wrong.

Since Soros is linked with O, wouldn't that indicate that the Dems are also NWO?

Yup Soros is a first rate sociopath. He brags about his child hood experiences with the Nazis. This fellow should be buried 100' deep, a 100' because deep down under he is good.

43844

tatupu70 2014 Mar 11, 2:53am

You confuse "how BLS CPI is measured by the BLS" vs. "how inflation is
measured."

No, no confusion there. I have it correct.

43845

tatupu70 2014 Mar 11, 2:56am

Who's disingenuous?? I post statewide data and you want to drop it down to your
neighborhood to support YOUR narrative.... Wow!!!

That would be you. The thread was about nationwide and you had to post statewide data to try to keep to your narrative. Pretty sad.

Almost a 5 month supply.... Gee, there's NOTHING to buy since we aren't at a
6 month supply..... Really??

Low inventory, Low inventory, Low inventory,.... Rah, Rah, Rah....

What else do you want to "parrot"???

Yes. The point is that at a 5 month supply, prices will be expected to rise. There's a pretty strong inverse correlation between inventory and prices. Less suppy, higher prices. More supply, lower prices. It is probably the #1 predictor of future prices.

43846

indigenous 2014 Mar 11, 3:09am

but like I say, when it comes to war, the Dems are much more reluctant to help the NWO.

LBJ, FDR, Wilson were quite happy to cause war, that idea does not hold water.

We have the Sandy Hook Hoax, which was the Dem's version of 9/11 conspiracy

Were all of the school shootings a hoax?

43847

indigenous 2014 Mar 11, 3:32am

LBJ was NWO. It could be that the NWO overcame JFK throught LBJ. Wilson was influenced by the NWO. FDR fought against the NWO. There was a potential coup that was set against him. WW2 was a defensive war.

FDR was as complicit in the war as Hiro Hito or Hitler. He just had a couple of tricks he learned from Edward Bernays.

43848

indigenous 2014 Mar 11, 3:33am

Good question. Who knows? Sandy Hook was exposed because people talked too much and we saw their actions as well. Some say Aurora was fake.

I know there were actors at the Boston Bombing, and that is a disturbing fact. The blood at the Boston Bombing looked like red paint. It was fake.

I don't think you are too far off the mark regarding the NWO, but the other is crazy talk.

In fact the drugs are more likely a tool of the NWO, it is Soma for the non malleable.

43849

tatupu70 2014 Mar 11, 3:34am

Let's see what YOU posted regarding the nationwide OP:

Actually, this is what I posted about nationwide OP:

Here's the actual nationwide numbers in case you wanted to be honest for once.

"Inventory rose 2.2 percent by the end of January to 1.90 million existing homes on the market. At the current sales pace that represents a 4.9-month supply, up from December's 4.6-month supply. January's inventory was also up 7.3 percent from the year before. Realtors consider the market to be balanced between supply and demand when there is a 6-month supply."

http://www.realestateabc.com/outlook.htm