patrick.net

Speaking of Ukraine, saw this gem today. From what I understand, Nazi party in Ukraine is trying to fight Russian army and cause other unrests.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2014/03/russia-warns-ukraine-over-lawlessness-201431015401938919.html

Tru Dat

Consumer Confidence is quickly dwindling, Central Banks cooperation is quickly fading, so which one will go rouge first...hmmmm! Maybe they're all sorta going rogue at once, now that wack-o-mole economics policies have lost the rest of it's shelf life....HURRY Yellen Taper before it's to late, TAPER!

Bubbabear says

wack-o-mole economics

Good one

FortWayne says

Speaking of Ukraine, saw this gem today. From what I understand, Nazi party in Ukraine is trying to fight Russian army and cause other unrests

This is 100% Russian propaganda. They are trying to create pretext for further invasion, just like they did with Crimea. The so-called "unrest" in Eastern Ukraine is created by Russian nationals bused in from Russia proper through the open border to riot on the streets of Ukrainian cities. I won't even comment the stupid bullshit re Right Sector being "Nazi party which uses uses swastika signs": their sign is a variation of Ukrainian Coat of Arms (Trident) with sword in the middle.

Here's the official Coat of Arms in colors of Ukrainian flag:

Here's the sign Right Sector uses (red and black are historical colors of Ukrainian battle flag):

Swastika, my ass.

PS. I especially like " Source: Agencies" at the bottom of the page. Epic fail.

Strategist says

My prediction.....Orange County median prices will increase by 50% to $800,000 by 2017. Then they will rest for a couple of years.

you are joking right? haha

Call it Crazy says

You're already past 6 months...

Not in my area we're not.

Reality says

The average real inflation rate since 2000 has been running above 4% if you use
the same methodology as the 1970's

Yes, if you use the wrong methodology, you can get whatever answer you'd like to get.

tatupu70 says

Reality says

The average real inflation rate since 2000 has been running above 4% if you use

the same methodology as the 1970's

Yes, if you use the wrong methodology, you can get whatever answer you'd like to get.

Correct. That's why government statistics should be taken with a big grain of salt. The Nixon years' 4% "high inflation" was using the methodology back then, so in order for numbers to comparable, one would have to use the same methodology.

control point says

Reality says

The average real inflation rate since 2000 has been running above 4% if you use

the same methodology as the 1970's.

So you believe prices are about 68% higher across the board than 2000, compared to CPI saying they are about 39% higher? (2.5% annual inflation)

Gasoline in 2000 was at or below $1 per gallon. Today, it is around $3.50 per gallon. 68% increase would be understatement.

What if you are wrong, and inflation isn't 4%. Then what happens to your thesis?

I said 4% or more. 4% was probably understatement.

tatupu70 says

spydah_hh says

No, I am sorry but you're a socialist

lol--economics is a binary system then? Either you're a soclialist or you're for unregulated free market?

It gets worse than that: at some point, whatever little room each of us make for government coercion will one day paint the person as socialist when people in the future work out better market solutions. It's a moving goal post, just like whatever job we do today will be considered menial drudgery if not outright barbaric at some point in the future.

tatupu70 says

Call it Crazy says

You're already past 6 months...

Not in my area we're not.

You have to look further than your street. Maybe around you they are all still holding their breath underwater. Or they are squatters who are living with no housing expenses, besides cleaning up their own feces from the back yard because the water was cut-off.

Reality says

so in order for numbers to comparable, one would have to use the same
methodology.

I see. So to compare inflation back to the 1900s, we should look at the price of horse drawn carraiges and kerosine?

Reality says

It gets worse than that: at some point, whatever little room each of us make for
government coercion will one day paint the person as socialist when people in
the future work out better market solutions.

Government coercion? What the hell are you talking about?

Reality says

Gasoline in 2000 was at or below $1 per gallon. Today, it is around $3.50 per
gallon. 68% increase would be understatement.

Yes, because cherry picking the one commodity that has increased the most is how one should measure inflation.

Tim Aurora says

That is a very broad definition of socialism and very narrow definition of capitalism.

It is what it is there is no grey areas when defining these two forms of governments. Socialism is just a form of government intervention (centralize market) and in most cases a redistribution of wealth. Free Markets is what it says, a free market enterprise where there is very little to no government intervention in markets.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_market
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socialism

tatupu70 says

I see. So to compare inflation back to the 1900s, we should look at the price of horse drawn carraiges and kerosine?

Oh this guy with his love of the CPI again. You're not understanding are you? You're still not getting it are you?

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/07/consumerpriceindex.asp
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Turk/turk_jan252008.html
http://www.silverdoctors.com/ron-paul-chained-cpi-chains-taxpayers/

The ShadowStats CPI eliminates the changes made by the US government since the early 1980s to its own CPI measure. In other words, the ShadowsStats CPI is the same one the US government used to calculate inflation while Jimmy Carter was president.

The changes made by the government to its CPI were clearly introduced to lessen reported CPI inflation. A lower inflation rate reduces the cost-of-living increases the US government makes to welfare and Social Security recipients, thereby reducing its budget deficit. Welfare and Social Security recipients suffer the consequences. Their purchasing power is reduced because the payments they receive do not keep up with the real rate of inflation.

You can also say this goes for workers wages as well.

Call it Crazy says

Well, that settles it..... There's a NATIONWIDE inventory shortage because
there is limited houses to buy on Tat's street!!!

lol--you post NJ data and now you're trying to claim nationwide? You are the poster boy for disingenuous.

Here's the actual nationwide numbers in case you wanted to be honest for once.

"Inventory rose 2.2 percent by the end of January to 1.90 million existing homes on the market. At the current sales pace that represents a 4.9-month supply, up from December's 4.6-month supply. January's inventory was also up 7.3 percent from the year before. Realtors consider the market to be balanced between supply and demand when there is a 6-month supply."

http://www.realestateabc.com/outlook.htm

He did not seem to be so inclined with Syria?

Where does Soros fit into the NWO thing?

"and, if possible, avoid future large-scale war."

It's encouraging to know that unlike the misguided dreamers of 1914-1918, there really will never be another war.

Call it Crazy says

tatupu70 says

At the current sales pace that represents a 4.9-month supply

Almost a 5 month supply.... Gee, there's NOTHING to buy since we aren't at a 6 month supply..... Really??

To be fair. You are stretching things a bit when the data calculates a 4.9 and you exaggerate that all the way to 5! That is a whole 0.1 of BS. How can anyone believe you now in the face of the fully substantiated clame from tatapupoo that his area doesn't have inventory. The deep research of going door to door and tabulating all the data is far superior than your over-exaggeration. I mean adding a 0.1 to the number just to make your case. Shame on you and a big high-five to tatupupoo for all his hard work. I just went out and bought the 4 houses that were in his neighborhood so now that really is no inventory. I guess that means the home prices are going to approach infinity. Only Bill Gates could afford to be his neighbor now. Good on Tatapupoo, bad on CIC.

Reality says

What if you are wrong, and inflation isn't 4%. Then what happens to your
thesis?

I said 4% or more. 4% was probably understatement.

That doesn't answer the question. I know you think the statement is correct - What if you are wrong, what does that do to your thesis?

bgamall4 says

Soros is NWO. Now, he thinks that the NWO could be used for good, for stopping bad loans, etc. I think he is wrong, totally wrong.

Since Soros is linked with O, wouldn't that indicate that the Dems are also NWO?

Yup Soros is a first rate sociopath. He brags about his child hood experiences with the Nazis. This fellow should be buried 100' deep, a 100' because deep down under he is good.

Reality says

You confuse "how BLS CPI is measured by the BLS" vs. "how inflation is
measured."

No, no confusion there. I have it correct.

Call it Crazy says

Who's disingenuous?? I post statewide data and you want to drop it down to your
neighborhood to support YOUR narrative.... Wow!!!

That would be you. The thread was about nationwide and you had to post statewide data to try to keep to your narrative. Pretty sad.

Call it Crazy says

Almost a 5 month supply.... Gee, there's NOTHING to buy since we aren't at a
6 month supply..... Really??

Low inventory, Low inventory, Low inventory,.... Rah, Rah, Rah....

What else do you want to "parrot"???

Yes. The point is that at a 5 month supply, prices will be expected to rise. There's a pretty strong inverse correlation between inventory and prices. Less suppy, higher prices. More supply, lower prices. It is probably the #1 predictor of future prices.

bgamall4 says

but like I say, when it comes to war, the Dems are much more reluctant to help the NWO.

LBJ, FDR, Wilson were quite happy to cause war, that idea does not hold water.

bgamall4 says

We have the Sandy Hook Hoax, which was the Dem's version of 9/11 conspiracy

Were all of the school shootings a hoax?

bgamall4 says

LBJ was NWO. It could be that the NWO overcame JFK throught LBJ. Wilson was influenced by the NWO. FDR fought against the NWO. There was a potential coup that was set against him. WW2 was a defensive war.

FDR was as complicit in the war as Hiro Hito or Hitler. He just had a couple of tricks he learned from Edward Bernays.

bgamall4 says

Good question. Who knows? Sandy Hook was exposed because people talked too much and we saw their actions as well. Some say Aurora was fake.

I know there were actors at the Boston Bombing, and that is a disturbing fact. The blood at the Boston Bombing looked like red paint. It was fake.

I don't think you are too far off the mark regarding the NWO, but the other is crazy talk.

In fact the drugs are more likely a tool of the NWO, it is Soma for the non malleable.

Call it Crazy says

Let's see what YOU posted regarding the nationwide OP:

Actually, this is what I posted about nationwide OP:

tatupu70 says

Here's the actual nationwide numbers in case you wanted to be honest for once.

"Inventory rose 2.2 percent by the end of January to 1.90 million existing homes on the market. At the current sales pace that represents a 4.9-month supply, up from December's 4.6-month supply. January's inventory was also up 7.3 percent from the year before. Realtors consider the market to be balanced between supply and demand when there is a 6-month supply."

http://www.realestateabc.com/outlook.htm

tatupu70 says

Not in my area we're not.

is what I posted in response to your post about NJ data.

tatupu70 says

Yes, because cherry picking the one commodity that has increased the most is how one should measure inflation.

Things we buy from China have little inflation:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=sXm

things China buys with our money has a lot of inflation.

Fucking currencies; how do they work??

bgamall4 says

And you say Sandy Hook Hoax was not related to the New World Order?

So was the moon landing fake as well? Can they get that many people to lie?

That is crazy talk.

Straw Man says

This is 100% Russian propaganda.

Who owns Aljazeera, isn't that Al Gore? I'd say that's our own stuff.

bgamall4 says

To think that no conspiracy happened, when you look at Sandy Hook, 9/11, etc, is to lack intellectual integrity. Study diligently.

How so?

WOW! The UNtrustworthy are certainly in control of what information is apparent to the people!

Say hey! This was in the Wall Street Journal on March 30, 1999. Note "... how much it will buy."

Holy cow/interesting/compelling ...!

And where is it up to date??? Right here ... see the first chart shown in this thread.
Recent Dow day is Tuesday, March 11, 2014 __ Level is 104.3

WOW! It is hideous that this is hidden! Is there any such "Homes, Inflation Adjusted"? Yes! This was in the New York Times on August 27, 2006:

And up to date (by me) is here:
http://patrick.net/?p=1219038&c=999083#comment-999083

WOW! The UNtrustworthy are certainly in control of what information is apparent to the people!

And http://patrick.net/?p=1230886

The Ukraine crisis is one of the few reasons I appreciate Obama and dems. Does one really think we can declare war on Russia? Russia has very little debt, huge surplus and still growing at close to 4-5% a year.

Russia and Ukraine have a history that goes back longer than America has been in existance. Strong rhetroic is enough-ain't gonna solve that one if we tried anything . Old McCain is a one trick pony and hasn't seen anything that he doesn't want to bomb. Stop focusing on the world and focus on our own problems-is that too much to ask.

Call it Crazy says

The ongoing crisis in Russia and Ukraine has, for some, highlighted deficiencies in President Obama’s foreign policy (or lack thereof).

Ukraine happened because Obama was acting like John Wayne, not in spite of it.

The toppling of the pro-Russian regime was a consequence of CIA and other U.S. government backing for the opposition and the protesters. Putin saw it, rightly, as western meddling in his backyard: meddling which I happen to agree was a good thing.

Perhaps we should return foreign police to the neocons. After all, they have such an excellent track record: as the architects of the end of Sunni rule in Iraq, they are the best friends Iran ever had. But this is just one blemish on their otherwise flawless record of failure.

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch says

dozen gay platinum shitting space alien quadrillionaires

Last I checked, those space alien quadrillionaires defecate gold-pressed latinum, not platinum.

It'd be nice if the student loan interest deduction didn't phase out. Beyond that, I think the government has probably gone way too far into the student loan business and is over-subsidizing universities, particularly shitty for-profit ones.

SFace says

The biggest change in stock compensation over the decade is the popularity of RSU's, PSU's in lieu of options, especially if you are not the first several hundred seed employees. stock units guarantees a payday (if liquidity hurdle is cleared) albeit you lose the upside of sheer options where the price explodes and you hold say 30K options and benefit on the increment than say 10K units where you benefit from the entire price.

Oh please, I know what the typical rank and file employee in the Valley gets in terms of RSUs. It's not that much. Again, a nice down payment, but not 4 houses. Sometimes it's based on a percentage of your base salary or base salary + bonus, sometimes based on other things. Depends on company.

SFace says

The thing is if you hit on the right company, at the right time, at the right executive level from someone I know.

Right, I already said that. If you are a key employee, possibly big bucks for you. Rank and file, no. We are talking about small numbers of people here, relatively speaking. I know several people like that too -- they are very much the minority.

SFace says

People who made their wealth in the dotcom eras are the buyers the last 10 years in the valley. People who makes their wealth now, will drive demand for their next generation.

They are, but again, only a small number of buyers, relatively speaking. Do they influence the market? Of course they do, but they aren't the whole market.