patrick.net

Nomograph says

Poking the bears is certainly interesting.

Long long way to go.... All the numbers we see posted by monthly sales/prices continue to support further price declines.

I doubt Glenn Beck is mentally ill. It's just an act. Meanwhile, he makes $32 million a a year, so at the end of the day he is having the last laugh (or the last cry).

I think that, on some level, he's nuttier than a fruitcake.

manolive72 says

I have owned a house since 1997. I saw it skyrocket in value during the bubble. It went from 204,000 to 630,000 or so. Now, it’s still apparently worth 550,000,

What cost $204,000 in 1997 would cost $271,504.63 in 2009... all said and done maybe 300K.
It took 15 years from 1980 to 1995 for prices to double, but that was during a rapid economic expansion in the SouthBay and Pennisula. Its a different story now that our local employers are shrinking and local employees (too costly) are not so attractive to hire.

But does flipping work? Are people flipping foreclosures a lot today and flipping them? Forgive me if I'm not as knowledgeable as you all. I've only bought one house in my life, and I could pay it off in another 8 years or so. But I need some cash flow, because my insurance practice is taking a hit.

dunnross says

Couple that with all the fundamentals of shadow inventory, high unemployment, rising interest rates, retiring baby boomers and spells a crashing housing market. The reality that we are seeing now, with prices falling for 4 months in a row, is a confirmation of technical analysis (graphs) + fundamental analysis (shadow inventory, high unemployment, rising interest rates, retiring baby boomers).

not to mention much more mature and shrinking industries in Techland, fundemental decline in local hiring vs ability hire without constraints elsewhere...

340 public companies in 1994, 420 in 2000 and today near 200 public companies...

And even worst, many unable or unwilling to take leadership in building the next decades industries. Something im not to happy with...

manolive72 says

because my insurance practice is taking a hit.

Stick to what you know! Miami is full of dead bodies of former flippers who though they
could make a quick buck!

look at 1997 on the chart again.. what do you see...

HousingWatcher says

What has changed in our social consciousness

Beck caters to the highest bidder. He is an artist and entertainer of the highest caliber. He mixes truth with exaggeration and acting to marginalize those who know truth and who agree with him (at least the parts that are factual).

Beck was one of Ron Paul's harshest (!!!) critics during the 2008 presidential election. Beck supposedly then had a 180-degree change of heart and decided to support Libertarian and then also, later, Tea Party ideals.

No adult man with such deep opinions does a 180-degree like that. No way. This was paid-for acting.

The man should be recognized for what he is -- a great artist and actor. He deserves an Oscar.

I haven't read the other comments but my reasoning is this...

I think the current recovery is a charade bought through trillions of dollars of govt spending. I think that as the govt cuts spending (because borrowing costs rise and/or the current crop of legislators grow a spine and start reigning it in) that the economy will resume its downward trajectory. We still haven't paid for the .com bubble and now we have the housing bubble. We need to experience a whole lot more pain to purge the excesses of these bubbles. Only then can we start a new march upwards.

No one can argue that credit is now more difficult to obtain than during the bubble - sure, down payment requirements are still too low but at least you have to have verifiable income to get a loan these days. That means that if unemployment rises and/or wages fall then house prices must drop.

Therefore, anyone betting on house prices going up from here are betting that Bernanke and friends can financially engineer a return to prosperity without completing the "bust" part of the "boom and bust" cycle. I don't see how this is possible and so expect another leg down in the economy - this will cause home prices to resume their fall.

Also, my analysis doesn't even account for other longer-term economic/housing headwinds - peak oil, baby boomers retiring, etc. When you throw those factors in the long-term outlook for house prices is not good.

theoakman,

Volatility depends on the way you look at the situation. When you value gold/silver against the fiat dollar, obviously there's going to be volatility - because these two metals are subject to human emotion more than anything else. The point is to look at gold/silver as real money and ignore their price variations with dollar. The metals are essentially a hedge against the fiat currency collapse. If the metals price falls, that just means the purchasing power of the dollar increased, but the purchasing power of the metals stayed the same.

Market cannot figure out what they are worth, because the market is trying to value money using manipulated money!

grywlfbg says

Therefore, anyone betting on house prices going up from here are betting that Bernanke and friends can financially engineer a return to prosperity without completing the “bust” part of the “boom and bust” cycle. I don’t see how this is possible and so expect another leg down in the economy - this will cause home prices to resume their fall.

sorry grywlfbg, put there will be plenty of 'vested parties' in RE who ignore all the variables influencing prices. yes you are right though!

BTW, Here is the link to the local rent/buy ratios. You can judge for yourself whether we've hit the bottom in affordability or not.

http://patrick.net/?p=28998

I lean toward the idea that he's crazy. He must know that there are many who "learn" from him and take him seriously. Therefore, if he has any humanity, he must in some way think that he is working for a higher good.

The man is indeed seriously disabled.

The ironic part is that that is what makes it possible for him to be far more entertaining than he would be if he were only acting.

If on the other hand it is an act, he is the lowest form of scum in existence, and no amount of gifts to charity can make up for the evil he does in the name of entertainment.

I think it's part showmanship - but that he truly believes the shit he shovels. I think he's narcissistic at the very least. However, so are many celebs. Normal people couldn't handle to shitstorm that accompanies celebrity.

cloud13 says

logic tells me that these poor asses which are hanging on to these homes, and driving beater cars won’t be able to resist longer.

Whoa fella, don't be so sure.

I have a beater-looking vehicles in front of my home, which I could pay off now if I wanted to (the home, not the beaters which of course are paid for).

But taking gains to pay off a 4.5% deductible loan doesnt figure in my logic.

Beater-looking cars, if they're mechanically maintained, are a good transportation value.

SF ace says

Nationwide housing affordability during the fourth quarter of 2010 rose to its highest level in the 20 years since it has been measured, according to National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index (HOI) data released today.
This includes San Francisco, an index of 31, highest since data was recorded.
http://www.nahb.com/news_details.aspx?sectionID=135&newsID=12159

NAR's and the RE Cartel's idea of "affordability" is completely twisted. They use median monthly payments to compare affordability, not the actual price of a house. Naturally, monthly payments are very low now, because the gov-t is trying to support high house prices by artificially keeping interest rates low. When the house market hits the "true" bottom, NAR's numbers for affordability may actually be lower than they are today, but only because interest rates will be much higher.

dunnross says

as recently as 1995 a condo in the best area of San Jose which cost no more than $200K would easily rent for $1800 or more.

Yes, and it was soon after that when purchase prices skyrocketed. Not talking about the BushJr Ownership Society Bubble steep rise in prices that came later. There was also a big surge in prices in the late 1990's that is sustained.

wait, who are these poor asses who wont be able to resist? resist what?

dunnross says

A place where people who make an average wage cannot find housing affordable, can not survive on a sustained basis... a place like this, will soon find an exodus of good jobs to other cities where housing is affordable

Well let's see, our region has seen exoduses of good jobs and entire industries decade after decade but the prices are higher each decade. Kinda like, NYC I think. They don't produce anything there anymore, and haven't for a long time. But the cost of housing keeps going up over there. Kinda like that here.

sybrib says

dunnross says

A place where people who make an average wage cannot find housing affordable, can not survive on a sustained basis… a place like this, will soon find an exodus of good jobs to other cities where housing is affordable

Well let’s see, our region has seen exoduses of good jobs and entire industries decade after decade but the prices are higher each decade. Kinda like, NYC I think. They don’t produce anything there anymore, and haven’t for a long time. But the cost of housing keeps going up over there. Kinda like that here.

That's my point. Bay Area doesn't compete for jobs with New York city, or even Chicago. In New York City, 25 year old's who work for wall street banks make in 1 year bonuses more than what it takes a San Jose techie to make in his lifetime. If you want to compare the Bay Area to another city, compare it to a city like Austin, Texas, but not to New York.

sybrib says

dunnross says

If you want to compare the Bay Area to another city, compare it to a city like Austin, Texas

I like Austin, had a good time there each time I was there; considered relocating there before, and it may happen yet. Why would a Bay Arean like me want to relocate to a place like Austin? Because it’s not like the Bay Area! Sort of like, the businesses like Apple and Applied Materials who’ve moved operations to that area.
San Francisco Bay Area more like Austin than other crowded coveted (overpriced and expensive) metropolis’ in the world? More like Austin? I wish it were so, because in that case we would have a higher standard of living. But it’s not more like Austin/

No, Bay Area has the amenities and the jobs like Austin, but, with RE prices like New York city.

haha great avatar

Syphilis says

haha great avatar

Yes, I got this one because sybrib gave me an idea of foie gras.

Oh, those are the guys from Nigeria. I know them very well. They use fake cashier's checks. You can read all about them over here:

http://www.internetscamalert.com/

not sure if you guys are aware, but with all the talk about betting which way a market goes,,,,

why not create your own market on xbet or one of the legal sites that allows you to, put your money where your mouth is

pick something like case shiller 10 city comp for feb or march, and an over under for price and make a market.

LETS GAMBLE

sybrib says

cloud13 says

logic tells me that these poor asses which are hanging on to these homes, and driving beater cars won’t be able to resist longer.

Whoa fella, don’t be so sure.
I have a beater-looking vehicles in front of my home, which I could pay off now if I wanted to (the home, not the beaters which of course are paid for).
But taking gains to pay off a 4.5% deductible loan doesnt figure in my logic.
Beater-looking cars, if they’re mechanically maintained, are a good transportation value.

sybrib says

cloud13 says

logic tells me that these poor asses which are hanging on to these homes, and driving beater cars won’t be able to resist longer.

Whoa fella, don’t be so sure.
I have a beater-looking vehicles in front of my home, which I could pay off now if I wanted to (the home, not the beaters which of course are paid for).
But taking gains to pay off a 4.5% deductible loan doesnt figure in my logic.
Beater-looking cars, if they’re mechanically maintained, are a good transportation value.

Syrib,

It wasn't directed at you personally but I'm giving you the data from the field. It's kind of a addiction to read patrick , be in as many open houses as i can from 2008 onwards. Some of the 1 million dollar homes in Los Gatos haven't been able to afford a nice LCD TV yet.

How do you explain this ?

I would dry a beamer (not a beater ) if they can.
everyone would live in Los Altos (not in san jose) if I can.
and i can go on......

Money shows in the way you live.... and I'm not even saying that rich people do it show it but It's very natural for them to live in this fashion.

So my question is , these "poor asses" who are bought into homewership to make some money or who can as well live in Gillroy or Morgan hill would be lured to sell their home for a profit and cash out.
They cannot resist the temptation or distress- either of it, that's what i mean by resisiting.

For record- I'm neither permabear nor permabull but just guaging the things without being judgemental.

By way of perspective, what goes on in California does not necessarily reflect real estate markets elsewhere. Home prices in my area never rose to the averages seen in California, meaning that mortgages are smaller here but wages are generally good. Maryland, as an example, has a far higher median household income than California.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_income

We surely have a foreclosure issue here, but it's not quite as dire as the leading foreclosure centers.

austrian_man says

theoakman,
Volatility depends on the way you look at the situation. When you value gold/silver against the fiat dollar, obviously there’s going to be volatility - because these two metals are subject to human emotion more than anything else. The point is to look at gold/silver as real money and ignore their price variations with dollar. The metals are essentially a hedge against the fiat currency collapse. If the metals price falls, that just means the purchasing power of the dollar increased, but the purchasing power of the metals stayed the same.
Market cannot figure out what they are worth, because the market is trying to value money using manipulated money!

I fully realize the volatility vs the dollar. The fact remains, gold and silver, while much more stable than fiat money in terms of prices, still fluctuate wildly. Like I said, I can now buy twice as many cars as I would like to with my Silver. Did the value of cars and everything else suddenly drop? I doubt it. Gold and Silver are more than capable of going into a bubble I won't be surprised if they do over the next 2-3 years.

What do you guys think about home prices in the $1million price range in the Los Angeles area? Do you think this price range of homes has taken a large hit over the past few years? Do you think it will stabilize for a while?

I live in San Diego and I believe these are flips:

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100072589-1677_Saturn_Blvd_San_Diego_CA_92154

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100066240-8010_Beechwood_Ct_Lemon_Grove_CA_91945

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100031597-1252_16th_St_San_Diego_CA_92154

Potential Flips:

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100061676-6721_Cielo_Dr_San_Diego_CA_92114

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100057511-916_Melrose_Ave_Chula_Vista_CA_91911

NAR says in its 2010 study of buyers and sellers that 91 percent of all buyers had financing, meaning just 9 percent were all cash.

I suspect qualifying today is easier than in 2005 because rates are better than a percent lower.

mediaprofessor says

What do you guys think about home prices in the $1million price range in the Los Angeles area? Do you think this price range of homes has taken a large hit over the past few years? Do you think it will stabilize for a while?

By the time RE hits true bottom, the percentage of homes with $1M or higher price tags should be a statistical anomaly.

says

>Silicon Valley is alive and well.

Intel to Build $5 Billion Arizona Chip Plant, Hire 4,000 in U.S. This Year

Intel Corp., during a visit by President Barack Obama, announced plans to build a $5 billion microprocessor plant in Arizona and hire 4,000 employees in the U.S. this year.

The workers will focus on product development, research and design, Chief Executive Officer Paul Otellini said, as he showed Obama around an Intel plant near Portland, Oregon. The new factory will be built at the company’s existing site in Chandler, Arizona.

Intel, the world’s largest chipmaker, is expanding its factory network to meet increasing demand for chips. The company said last month that it would spend $8.7 billion to $9.3 billion on plants and equipment this year, compared with $5.2 billion in 2010. Revenue may rise 14 percent to $49.5 billion this year, the average estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

The company, which does manufacturing in Oregon, New Mexico and Arizona in the U.S. and Ireland, Israel and China internationally, has called on the government for tax breaks to make it cheaper to build facilities in the U.S

OurBroker says

I suspect qualifying today is easier than in 2005 because rates are better than a percent lower.

wat

cloud13 says

Some of the 1 million dollar homes in Los Gatos haven’t been able to afford a nice LCD TV yet.
How do you explain this ?

Maybe they don't want one.

I don't have a nice LCD TV "yet". Don't really sit in front of that boob tube enough hours in the day to make it worthwhile. Might be different if I live in dunross' weather paradises of Chicago (winter) or Austin (summer).

I suppose when my CRT + new tuner box dies, I'll get an LCD TV.

cloud13 says

I would dry a beamer (not a beater ) if they can.

everyone would live in Los Altos (not in san jose) if I can.

Everyone ? Or just everyone who shares those values?

Nomograph says

dunnross says

All your ideas of why the Bay Area should be a glamor city are a complete hogwash. Let’s take them, 1 at a time:

It sounds to me like you just hate the Bay Area. Fair enough, but your personal opinion as to where you want to live doesn’t drive housing markets. Most people find the Bay Area highly desirable. Very few ever leave for reasons other than family/job obligations. And yes, the BA tech job market is highly competitive which is why the worlds best end up there. Those lucrative positions at top firms don’t come easy, and even in the best of times 3rd and 4th tier keyboard jockeys will get knocked off. It’s that way in every high-skill, high-stakes profession.
dunnross says

“The median price paid for all new and resale houses and condos in the Bay Area was $338,000 in January, down 9.9 percent from $375,000 in December”

MOM statistics are generally meaningless because they fluctuate wildly due to seasonal variation. YOY statistics have much more meaning, and your article states a 3.9% drop in the BA YOY. That is a modest drop, but nowhere near enough yet to approach the 2009 bottom. Thus far, the market seems to be bouncing off the bottom.
Your assertion that BA prices are falling at the rate of 10% per month is just plain silly. Free houses on the Peninsula for everyone by October!

Saying that it doesn't merit the title of a "glamor city" is not the same as "hating it". Somehow, a lot of BA residents here, seem to have this anal fixation about the BA being this "glamor" utopia. Maybe, they should get off their buts, and go travel a little more, and not only to places like Bejing and Mumbai.

dunnross says

Also people would pay for anything, even if it was overpriced, because people have this uncanny ability to fall into denial, and convince themselves, that somehow those prices are justified, just because they happen to live here, and, because they do, there is not other place better then home.

One of the tradeoffs some of us make to stay here, because of our personal choices that are as varied and different as the millions who choose to reside here, is to share the space with the influx of recent decades folks from all over the USA and all over the world that are so smart, so savvy, so Cool and Hip, so self confident, that they "know" what goes on inside the minds of others. Welcome to the Cool and Hip Bay Area. Some of the locals who I grew up with here in the region have told me it was that "influence" as much as the high cost of living that motivated them to leave. That is what I was told, I did not project my own self confidence into what really goes on inside their minds.

I dunno what is going on inside of your mind but if I take at face value what you wrote, it sounds like you could improve your life and in a very tiny incremental way improve the lives of others, by leaving.