patrick.net

No mention of guns or abortion?

YesYNot MAPGA says

No mention of guns or abortion?

The red herring issues are not swaying voters as much these days

Anyone that's been reading the Wikihemorage knows the media is full of shit.

And everything that you have supsected about the Liberal has been shown to be fact.

I knew we all knew the Chicago Trump shut down was a multiagency take down.
Washington, DNC, Super PACs, Meida and Mayor's office.

The Polls are nothing more than Shit paper and the establishment would not be going so batshit crazy jepordizing their position behind Oz's curtain, if Trump wasn't winning BIG!

We see you Bastards back there behind the Curtain. You Quit cho Hiddin' Boy!

Cletus get the rope!

YesYNot MAPGA says

No mention of guns or abortion?

That crap takes a back seat, thanks to Trump voters. There are real issues that intelligent, free thinkers are prioritizing this cycle. The Clintons and their voters, ensconced in hate, do their best to avoid legit issues, by peddling fear, misinformation, lies and hate. The people are more interested in the economy and trade, healthcare and the terrible Heritage Foundation legislation that harms working people in order to reap more profits for evil corporations and worthless insurance companies and their executives.

Is it me, or are they having to sample more and more Dem's (each poll) to get the same result?

ARLP old highs were 50

FortWayne says

Just pointing out what liberals are electing.

Hillary wants her supporters to punch you in the face & get you out of here.

FortWayne says

This is one fucked up election America.

Wait a damn minute! This is america's best,chosen by D & R voters.

Hillary wants more Rape Culture.

Calais Rapefugees rape a journalist at knifepoint.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/722432/Calais-migrants-female-journalist-raped-refugees-Jungle-Camp

Hillary - America's Merkel.

Calling for Weiner to be prosecuted while giving the woman (forgot who she is, British?) a titty-pass is the typical double standard against men. There is no doubt about it.

2016 will go down in the history books as the year United States home prices finally recovered to 2006 levels.

--------------

Obamas legacy. Leave the country poorer than he found it.

Excellent, thanks.

What magnitude of effect will the aristocracy have on prices in the most expensive zips? Slow and steady or dramatic rise?

Why is illary eating cats?

Hmm, wasn't the last NBC poll had clinton at 11%?

Bill Clinton came into my room to bring me a box of cigars and I literally screamed "BILL CLINTON IS A RAPIST INFOWARS.COM" at him and hit the cigars out of his hand. He started getting naked and told me to put on this blue dress so I slammed the door on him. I'm so distressed right now I don't know what to do. I didn't mean to do that to Hillary Clinton's husband but I'm literally in shock from his sexual advances. Why the fucking fuck is he trying to fuck me? I know what he did with these cigars in the Oral Office. This can't be happening. Why is Joy Behar calling me a tramp?? I'm having a fucking breakdown! I don't want to believe Hillary supports and defends rapists like her husband.

Ironman says

But, but, but, Bill's not running for President, Hillary is...

Bingo, you got something right. First time. Red letter day at patnet. Proof positive that even a blind squirrel finds a nut once and a while.

Says WHO? This shit don't matter. WE WANT THUNDERDOME!! GIVE US THUNDERDOME!!

justme says

forgot who she is, British?

Go back to sleep, fool.

$23.55 💃🏼

Wait until all the bubbles, including the now ginormous tech/dot.com redux of 1999 bubble, pop.

You'll see, said the Zen Master.

It'll be literally suicidal investors and brokers all over again; I lived through 1999-2002, and 2008-2010.

This one will be the biggest & broadest as every asset class has been artificially inflated with printing press fiat (1st time in history we've had a simultaneous bull market in stocks AND bonds - a bizarre historical anomaly).

Maybe Trumpligula would be better off with Michael Cohen as his doctor and Dr. Bornstein as his attorney.

"Screw the so-called facts, where's my fucking fee!"

Oh we're still doing Dick jokes?

This is the genius that said by definition you can't rape your wife. Every time I here something about this guy, he is fucking something up.

Nothing but Blue Skies, from now on!

You wrote that:

"One of the biggest bull runs ever recorded in bonds occurred from June 1984 to July 1986. (approximately) It was massive recording a dead drop in interest rates from 14% to 7% in just two years."

First, as I've stated, bond yields crashed (quickly and massively) well before the bull (that JUST began in 1982) started.

In fact, they crashed so fast that Volker was accused of trying to help Reagan, as he raised the fed funds rate to 15.5% approx in 1979, to thwart massive inflation that coincided with the oil embargo and Carter's Iran hostage crisis.

This very high fed funds rate caused mortgage rates to spike to 12% and even 14% on conventional 30 year mortgages in 1979- to late 1980, which caused a literal housing crash, which Carter was blamed for (subsequently losing his re-election bid to Reagan.

Rates had already fallen to 7% and lower by 1982, well before the equity bull got legs.

Bond yields HAD ALREADY BOTTOMED well before the equity bull began, let alone by the time it got a full head of steam.

In current cycle, BOND YIELDS FELL FOR 4 1/2 YEARS DURING THE SAME PERIOD IN WHICH EQUITIES ROSE BY 180% - 200% (not counting approx 2012 to 2016).

We're in an artificial, warped environment, that's primarily the result of asset'class mis-pricing, due to global central bank coordination in pinning short and long-term yields to the lower (or zero) bound (negative yields in Japan and parts of Europe).

I have clients developing subdivisions, apartments, condominium developments now (as well as commercial properties).

Here's what will happen: We're going to see a repeat, in some rough form, of the 1980-1982 period, not because of high interest rates, but because of LOW INTEREST RATES (perversely), which will cause cost-push inflation to mark housing/rent prices to the breaking point of unaffordability no matter how low interest rates are!

This is because money is fungible; it doesn't matter if $1 goes to interest or $1 goes to principal on rent or mortgage payments.

So artificially low rates have allowed material producers and contractors to raise prices of building based on non-fundamentals. Housing prices/rents have risen accordingly, and will continue to do so as the Fed is subsidizing this inflation through offsetting low interest rates.

Let me give you a real world example:

In 2009, the cost of building a production house - stick-built, conventional construction (BUILDER'S COST, not including land/lot, utilities, permits, engineering, etc.) was about $64-$70/sq ft.

Today, that same house costs $88-$94/sq ft to build (think 2,000 to 3,000 square foot, subdivision with 70'x130' lots).

I can't explain it more simply than this:

Equities continued to rise from the specific and narrow 1984 to 1986 time frame you keep referencing, but bond yields were flat or may have actually started to rise again (I need to check) during that same, short period.

So bonds and equities typically move inversely - this is assumed to be a normal functioning market as equities are "risk assets" and bonds are "safe assets." Investors are therefore willing to accept lower returns for low-beta assets (high credit bonds) than higher-beta assets (equities).

Even during the specific, narrow 1984 to 1986 range you keep citing as your equity bull market, bond yields didn't plunge 500 basis points (as they did from 2008 to 2012).

You're being argumentative now or are obtuse.

Freespeech is correct.

Bond yields ARE RISING or at least volatile during the 1984-1986 "bull market" you keep referencing, unlike the prior 8 years.

WTFBBQ DUDE.

I can't explain it in any more basic terms to him, not to mention that he's significantly culled his range on his "equity bull market" from a prior 1982 baseline, to a now 1984-1986 specific period (the bull was very nascent in 1982; it was more of a stop of a decline and a reversal beginning in '82).

tr6 says

Can bond holders sitting in ultra long bonds?

Holders of bond funds, if they hold them for a period equal to the effective bond fund duration (e.g. for TLT it is ~17 years), will not loose capital (and will of course collect the yield). There are simulations from the time when rates were rising showing that this is true. Of course there will be pain in the short term.

Also, in the past, reversal from down to up trend in rates has been slow, slower than reversal from up to down trend.

FP says

Of course there will be pain in the short term.

One thing that economists can agree on is that raising minimum wage is inflationary. California minimum wage will rise to $15 per hour by 2021. Does this hurt CA bonds or it does not matter since the rest of the world is not raising wages? Trying to figure out if to get into NAC if dips into 14s.

The 4 millon dead voters have been purged from the rolls, and the 10 million bogus voter registrations have been purged.

The Liberals rigged election is unraveling, the next step may be Trump's assasination. Then the 2nd American revolultion will begin.

Tenpoundbass says

The 4 millon dead voters have been purged from the rolls, and the 10 million bogus voter registrations have been purged.

The Liberals rigged election is unraveling, the next step may be Trump's assasination. Then the 2nd American revolultion will begin.

You need to get out more. Seriously.

tr6 says

Does this hurt CA bonds or it does not matter since the rest of the world is not raising wages? Trying to figure out if to get into NAC if dips into 14s.

I have no idea. With leveraged funds, the spread between the long term rates and the rate at which the funds borrow also matters.

My approach to muni closed end funds is - enter when the yield is above 6% (based on the market price) and there is a nice discount. When there is a large discount, the distributions are more sustainable. Recently many CA muni CEF's cut the distributions (a few years ago one could get yields about 7%). Some national munis are now more attractive. See for example. NZF, NEA, NAD, NVG. So, I switched some allocations to them. If prices continue to fall, I'll do some tax harvesting and will put some more $, gladly collecting 7% tax free income.

"Many people always expect a recession. If and when we have the start of one, the federal reserve will immediately push down interest rates to prevent a recession."

The fed funds rate is at 1/2 a percent.

It was at 5.25% during the onset of the 2008 downturn, allowing the fed to cut rates some 65 times between 2008 and 2012, down to 1/4 of a percent interest.

Since then, there's been ONE 0.25 hike, back in December of 15, up to a "lofty" .05 fed funds rate.

There's no ammo to cut rates meaningfully, as they are now nominally close to zero, and negative in real, inflation-adjusted terms already.

There is no more there there, and you speak nonsense.

You fail Economics 101.

Strategist says

the federal reserve will immediately push down interest rates to prevent a recession.

They can't push it down much lower than zero, maybe couple points NIRP, they haven't even raised them yet!
Bearish on housing from here on, though no crash in sight at this point I agree with (for that we need to see layoffs and defaults/increase in foreclosures and/or cash buyers exiting). Still worth considering a short here. SRS may have bottomed around $33 and may be a good hedge against a bear market.

well-considering other double digit lead polls- 4% means he is strengthening?

Are the news reports of a flattening/declining rents correct? If so, how does that affect investments? Or is the story just reporting on a temporary lull before another monster increase?

10-Year yields spike dramatically in 1986, dip, then spike even more dramatically in 1987 (which I realize is barely outside of your pre-ordained, narrow, convenient "1984 to 1986" equity bull market period).

Perhaps it is you who needs lessons on chart reading, even per the ones that you very selectively post.

The larger lesson that 1984-1986 and 2008 through present LITERALLY could not be more different remains intact.

Yep, not a big surprise. Ecuador's policy is no interference in other's elections, so letting Assange use their internet would make them look hypocritical.

Doesn't matter, and he was probably warned on the downlow. Not stopping the leaks.

Hillary's shit gets out, even if it's dumped illegally down a stormdrain.

He is absolutely correct that layoffs will be the trigger that will cause the next downturn, and we will see mounting layoffs (maybe en masse if conditions set up in historical patterns) should cost-push inflation drop end-user demand for finished goods and especially labor/services.

The U.S. sees mass layoffs in manufacturing and service sector industries in all recessions (Greater or lesser), but the real vulnerability now is that a) service sector is disproportionately sustaining consumption and aggregate-demand (however weak) compared to past cycles, and b) interest rates/yields are already pinned to-pegged at the lower bound (ZIRP), so there's nearly no monetary stimulus available as the fed reserve's main response tool in their emergency kit.

I did not even get into global macro eco events such as currency debasement wars (EU/Japan/China/etc) nor geo-political risks (which are always present, but are running really hot lately).