patrick.net

YesYNot says

You seem to have determined that climate models are bad. Did you use any specific criteria to make that determination?

Let's say I spend a lot of time on quantitative models...

Note that I definitely believe that global temperature is rising. I am a bit less sure about whether the change is caused by human activities. There is no plausible way to link extreme weather events to climate change.

Using those "models" to make long-term projections for policy decisions is batshit crazy. Those "climate scientists" are asking you to take a leap of faith by appealing to your fear.

It is a sleight of hand. They try to conflate the statistically robust claim of rising temperature with the questionable predictive power of their long-term models. And they want to effect policy decisions.

Carry a KKK hood to wear in a pinch.

Peter P says

It is a sleight of hand. They try to conflate the statistically robust claim of rising temperature with the questionable predictive power of their long-term models. And they want to effect policy decisions.

It's understood that the models can be off. There's a margin of error there to be sure. And maybe quantifying the exact margin of error is tricky becasue of the complexity of climate. But all you need is a significant risk, not a well defined exact metric for risk in order to justify it affecting policy.

Otherwise smart people don't even know when they are being manipulated by big business.

I think it would be cool if another patnetter or three went with him, if they live around the Bay Area. I'd go but I'm in LA and have to watch the kiddos tomorrow evening.

marcus says

But all you need is a significant risk, not a well defined exact metric for risk in order to justify it affecting policy.

The wrong policy decision can also have significant risks. We live in a complex, nonlinear world with huge socioeconomic dislocations. Big moves like a shift in energy policy can potentially cause more harm sooner.

marcus says

Otherwise smart people don't even know when they are being manipulated by big business.

Not just big businesses. All large organizations are self-serving. One can also be duped by the scientific community who seeks attention like everybody else.

Nothing is holy in this world.

Peter P says

Let's say I spend a lot of time on quantitative models.

I'm guessing based on your other comments that you are in financial engineering. Is that so? I've worked with applied mathematicians at a top University, and also have plenty of experience with complex models and nonlinear dynamics. Here's what I think is very well known: The CO2 we emit is pretty much added to the atmosphere and ocean kg for kg. It's easy to predict this. It's probably pretty easy to predict roughly what portion of that ends up in the atmosphere, but ocean currents probably complicate that. The impact of the CO2 in the atmosphere is pretty well known. What's difficult in the near term is measuring a relatively small signal when there is a lot of noise caused by other things. But we've been doing it for long enough to see that the models are basically working. Also, predicting human behavior accurately 50 years out is impossible. In order to separate the uncertainty in the emissions scenarios from the model uncertainty, they run different scenarios for the emissions. This is pretty transparent and useful for people who are making policy.

The alternative solution, which is just to ignore the problem due to lack of familiarity or certainty with the model doesn't seem good to me.

Peter P says

The wrong policy decision can also have significant risks. We live in a complex, nonlinear world with huge socioeconomic dislocations. Big moves like a shift in energy policy can potentially cause more harm sooner.

This is always a danger. For example, if we develop electric cars, but fail to develop clean electricity and then develop self driving cars, we might create the ultimate climate destroyer. Electricity can be cheap, so who wouldn't want a van that they could turn into a sleeper car and wake up Saturday morning 8 hrs away from home? It would be much cheaper and easier than flying up and down the coast.

Environmental scientists and economists are aware of these issues, though. Politicians have the tools if they have the willingness to use them.

YesYNot says

The alternative solution, which is just to ignore the problem due to lack of familiarity or certainty with the model doesn't seem good to me.

Would you stop a CAT 5 hurricane if there is a chance it might run into something else?

With multiple actors in this world, big policy moves can have very undesirable side effects.

In finance, some models are good enough even if they are wrong 60% (!) of the time because they still produce profits in the long run. It is very hard to make decisions using models when you cannot shrug it off and try another day.

Hater says

How much co2 is not enough?

Look, I know that more CO2 helps plants grow. It's especially good for tomatoes. I have seen plans to pump CO2 into greenhouses for growing tomatoes. But I think that the benefit of this will be tiny relative to the costs. Excess heat is bad for plants, so plants will have to be engineered and moved or replaced with other plants. Much more importantly, the effects of a global increase in temperature of 2-4 oC are greatly underappreciated.

YesYNot says

This is always a danger. For example, if we develop electric cars, but fail to develop clean electricity and then develop self driving cars, we might create the ultimate climate destroyer. Electricity can be cheap, so who wouldn't want a van that they could turn into a sleeper car and wake up Saturday morning 8 hrs away from home? It would be much cheaper and easier than flying up and down the coast.

Car-as-a-service (using self-driving cars) will be much better. Also, VR/AR technology can eliminate the need for many types of travel.

YesYNot says

Environmental scientists and economists are aware of these issues, though. Politicians have the tools if they have the willingness to use them.

They are, within their domain. But experts are known to be domain dependent. Worse yet, politicians will game the system and the experts might play along.

Peter P says

In finance, some models are good enough even if they are wrong 60% (!) of the time because they still produce profits in the long run.

I would say that the same is true for climate change. They don't have to tell you what is happening year to year. They just have to predict what is happening over 25 years to be useful for decision making. They don't have go get everything just right to be useful either.

There are lots of financial models are useless for year to year predictions, but are useful for planning over longer periods.

YesYNot says

I would say that the same is true for climate change. They don't have to tell you what is happening year to year. They just have to predict what is happening over 25 years to be useful for decision making. They don't have go get everything just right to be useful either.

True. And the models will be less problematic if they are used mostly by cities for better preparedness.

If the models are used to make big policy changes, it will be Battle Royale. Will large interest groups agree to proposals based on a minor statistical probability?

Scientists have made questionable suggestions before, like eugenics. Science might be objective, but the human layer on top is not.

YesYNot says

This is always a danger. For example, if we develop electric cars, but fail to develop clean electricity and then develop self driving cars, we might create the ultimate climate destroyer. Electricity can be cheap, so who wouldn't want a van that they could turn into a sleeper car and wake up Saturday morning 8 hrs away from home? It would be much cheaper and easier than flying up and down the coast.

What are the chances of success and probability of catastrophe if you try to do several things at once?

Nuclear Power first, then electric cars. And it has to be nukes, nothing else scales right now. Future Technology that seems feasible today may run into major implementation problems tomorrow, or be discovered to be less efficient, more costly, or simply not possible.

And in actuality, the real solution to an input problem is finding a way to do without the input (ie get rid of cars, entirely). Since huge human cities with skyscrapers and electric were around before car ownership was widespread and common, this is something we already know how to do.

I'd sell suburbs short over the next 50 years if I could.

Ironman says

Is water higher in one end of a swimming pool then the other?

If the pool is big enough, you bet.

It appears you need to learn about general lunar tide science, ocean currents, and heat of expansion as well. (Hint: gravitational influence, how water flows over topography, and uneven heating of the ocean surface can pool water in localized areas.)

You are too far below a typical science education to have any worthwhile discussion here.

Just read up past Ironman distraction. That was some good discussion gents. Cheers.

LOL ... you cannot reframe your pool comment. You think a pool is a good representation of an ocean. You also think CO2ppm level on the order of those that would cause respiratory issues are levels that matter for climate change. Further, you think the vast geological timescale of the Earth's atmosphere is highly relevant and predictive of Earth climate now.

You need to "read up" in a basic high school science text. It appears to be willful ignorance with you.

jazz music says

Dickless apologists are lining up right now to claim that Trump is the greatest accordion player ever.

An accordion SUCKS air.
Trumpsters SUCK liquid.

jazz music says

Tthis is the largest redistribution in American history from the poor and middle-class of America to the rich.

We will all be Kansas,a budget disaster.
Silver Spoon Trump voters will hurt just like all Americans in this Republican FUBAR.

jazz music says

Tthis is the largest redistribution in American history from the poor and middle-class of America to the rich.

This is class warfare with a vengeance.

Everyone will benefit from those tax cuts. The poor don't pay taxes, but their benefits are not being cut.

Still way better than Hillary.

rando says

Still way better than Hillary.

How is nothing but incompetence better than Hillary?

BayArea says

how should one dress to minimize risk of injury but still be there?

She cancelled the visit eh?

Rew says

That was some good discussion gents.

Yeah. That was better.

Ironman, if you care, the polar ice sheets are huge. Like all mass, they exert a gravitational pull on other mass. The ice above the water is pulling the water towards it. After it all melts, the water level might actually decrease at the poles, and it will rise more near the equator. This is explained here: http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/melting-polar-ice-will-spike-sea-levels-at-the-equator-24739579/

A lot of times, when you think through a problem and do the math, you find a result that is counter-intuitive. This is common in science, because your intuition is formed by things falling in a very narrow range of the available parameter space.

Rew says

How is nothing but incompetence better than Hillary?

You said it perfectly.

Lashkar_i_Trumpi says

Nuclear Power first, then electric cars

I believe that Nuclear would have some of the same storage issues as solar/wind. It's even less capable of shutdown/startup operations than coal. I agree, though, from a global warming perspective, it's very good.

Peter P says

it will be Battle Royale. Will large interest groups agree to proposals

I agree that various groups will have tremendous interest in being favored. We've seen the politicians pervert the scientific information already with corn ethanol. Of course this applies to other issues beyond the environment. I hope that some solutions are found despite the inefficiencies in applying scientific knowledge politically. First, we have to get people to agree on the nature of the problem. Otherwise, there is no hope of a solution.

www.youtube.com/embed/OgIMJcBpqKI

jazz music says

You all have got to start seeing patterns here with the realities peeking out from behind the curtains.

The sonofabitches even want to argue about global warming again and DEREGULATE EVERY FUCKING DESTRUCTIVE INDUSTRY there is: Wall Street too! Sure the numbers will look great just like a jet plane goes real fast while it's in a nose-dive.

What will it take for people to stand up?????

You were up in arms even when Obama was President. People don't believe the crap you spew.
You just want to turn the US into a Venezuela, because you can't differentiate the difference between good and bad.

Wanna go? I'll get us Make America Great swag, YouTube income will be colossal , provided we survive

There is a reality to why Patrick Henry said "give me liberty or give me death". Because when you give up liberty, freedom of speech, rule of law, fraternity, you get an increase in Pcomm.

Frankly, those assholes in Venezuela have it coming to them. You ever hear them talk about ordinary Venezuelans? It's like Spaniards talking about their Black and Indian Slaves, in fact, it IS the Spaniards talking about Black and Indian Slaves.

They packed their Oil Monopoly with generations of nepotists, doing nothing, not showing up to work, making 1st world salaries for a low level job.

I don't agree with Maduro, I don't agree with Marxism, but damn those fucks need a solid beating to rid them of their unearned pride. They act like they're Einstein, O'Higgins, and Pope Jan Pavel 2 all in one, when they would be helpless in rage tears if Negrita called in sick and couldn't make them their sandwich with the eeeewwwwy crust cut off. And clueless as hell, a few years ago the opposition ran a guy who campaigned as a "Friend of Negrita" and talked about his domestic servants. Kinda had the opposite effect.

And those dumb enough to follow Maduro if he's not bluffing and really goes down this rathole, fuck them too.

But I'll tell you what, we should let them murder each other until they're exhausted and ready to talk. We need to stay the hell out.

jazz music says

START OBSESSING ABOUT SOMEBODY ELSE

Why? Nobody else does. How many of those people in the riots are thinking of anyone but themselves? How many people in an Occupy Wall Street camp has anyone other than themselves in mind? Do you really believe people in the utopias of the Netherlands care about anyone but themselves? They like free stuff. It reminds me of my mother's friend Helen Bachman who used to say "hell, no one's ever bought me any ice cream and I'll be darned if I'm going to".

jazz music says

You should be ashamed.

I'm not.

jazz music says

You should be ashamed.

I'm ashamed of ungrateful people like you who cannot see what this great country, the world's greatest country, has done for Americans and the rest of mankind.

Woohoo, the Patrick.net Meetup group got a second member!

Hater says

Does anyone know what the ideal temp and co2 percentage is for human life.

Dan got so triggered by this question that he put me on ignore.

Science is not settled by consensus. It is settled by debate, experiment, and facts.

Hi! Well, talking about the ideal level of CO2 for humans, it's 350ppm. If CO2 level reaches 450ppm, then that's a serious problem.

Damn, it took 287 posts to get a straight answer to a simple question...

Hater says

WobblyMolly says

If CO2 level reaches 450ppm, then that's a serious problem.

What happens?

Peter P says

Car-as-a-service (using self-driving cars) will be much better.

As long as our usage patterns don't increase dramatically due to the lower economic and time costs. Peter P says

VR/AR technology can eliminate the need for many types of travel.

Tons of potential here. But, we really don't know how much this will be accepted as an alternative to travel. At least if we can agree on what the societal costs of global warming are, then the we can either put an economic cost on causing more of it or place a social value on preventing it.

jazz music says

Strategist says

I'm ashamed of ungrateful people like you who cannot see what this great country, the world's greatest country, has done for Americans and the rest of mankind.

Lies lies lies. Why do you think anyone would believe this?

Because they are facts.

BlueSardine says

Damn, it took 287 posts to get a straight answer to a simple question

Unfortunately, it's not a straight answer regardless of how much people crave simplicity. Here's a more detailed but still greatly simplified discussion of where the 450ppm came from: http://sustainabilityadvantage.com/2014/01/07/co2-why-450-ppm-is-dangerous-and-350-ppm-is-safe/

Some people estimated: scientists’ models: we have a 50% chance of stabilizing the average global temperature at a 2°C increase over the pre-industrial period if we keep concentrations of CO2 under 450 ppm.

Do the skeptic / deniers think that Temperature is a function of CO2 concentration?

CO2 traps heat, so the warming (heat per unit time) is a function of CO2 concentration. The equation that described how heat flow relates to temperature is this:
----------------------
Heat / unit time = mass x heat capacity x dT/dt
----------------------
For anybody who hasn't had calculus, dT/dt is time rate of change of temperature. This can be written over a fixed period of time as
Heat / unit time = mass x heat capacity x (T2-T1)/(time 2 - time 1)
Heat / unit time is a function of CO2
You can solve for temperature at a later period of time:
----------------------
T2=T1+Heat/unit time *(time 2 - time 1)/(mass x heat capacity)
----------------------
In other words, the temperature at some time in the future is proportional to the heat trapped per unit time, which is a function of CO2, times the time that goes by. That is why people say that some amount of warming is already locked in based on what we have already polluted.

There are some implications of this:
1) Even if we stopped emitting CO2 today, the earth would continue to warm due to what it already there.
2) T and CO2 are related, so you cannot set the optimum values independently.
3) T is not a direct function of CO2. It is proportional to CO2 times time. Therefore, you cannot specify the CO2 concentration and calculate a T, so if you optimize for T, you cannot simply calculate a concentration of CO2 that matches.
4) What you can do it take a value of CO2 over time and integrate forward to calculate what the T will be.

Obviously, the earth is a complicated system, and the heat per unit time is a function of other things (like solar activity, clouds, and snow cover) as well as CO2. The earth is also not a perfectly mixed object, so the temperature is a function of space as well as time. Also, heat loss through radiation is a function of T as well. HOWEVER, that simple equation gives you a good qualitative picture of the relationship between CO2 and T for small changes in T. For bigger changes in T, the radiation term (cooling) becomes more important, and will prevent runaway warming at some very high temperature long after most if not all humans are dead.