patrick.net

I cant member who told me I would go bankrupt, seems to be less comments in the old threads than I thought. oh well.

From 2012 to 2015 prices probably went up 30%. Then another 30% in last 2 years (most of this is the Trump boom).

We all know the booming stock market causes hiring to happen AND people cash out stocks to buy RE or the 'wealth effect' makes people feel rich because 401k is way up... which causes people to buy RE.

I really wanted the country to have affordable real estate for everyone, but we sat here and watch the Feds do everything possible, and then make up 20 more things, to bail out real estate and IT WORKED. Asset price dips or 'dis inflation' will never ever be allowed except for short slumps, which are buying opportunities, until the bankers can print more money to make all markets zoom to moon. I fought the fed, and the fed won.

JimiFP says

How much did LA houses appreciate from 2012 until two years ago?

80-100%

40-50% in 3 years from 2012 until 2015?

They still seem to increase in the past :)

I'm curious how much headwind real estate has in Southern California. Our house is probably only up 60%, but we bought in mid-2011... probably 6-12 months from the true bottom. Also we live deep in the valley, so while schools are still top notch in LAUSD.... it's not as coastally desirable or hip. And lots of older people who bought long ago just holding on. So inventory is always very low.

For example our house was built in the 1950s and we are the 2nd owners.

As good as the gains have been in CA, I think the desert got even MORE.

AZ/NV crashed so hard that in 2009/2010 you could get houses for 30% of the sales price they sold for in 05 at max insanity. Now they are almost back to 05 so most people buying got a 300% gain in those areas. Condos for 25k-50k now go for 150k.

Its all public record, use redfin if you wanna be depressed.

In NV they actually nearly outlawed forclosures in 10 i think, added a bunch of hurdles/delays to the process.

You can legally 'buy your short sale' in nevada for years now. They advertise this on billboards. That would have meant JAIL in pre 08 regulatory era.

Buy your own short sale. Think about how fucked that is. Its a principal reduction via 3rd party who sells it back to you after escrow. This is why only the feds will make home loans - its all socialized losses/privatized profits.

Residential Real Estate is bananas right now. I don't know how salaries are supporting it in 2017.

I would never say we hit the ceiling in 2012-2016. But between 2016-2017? How much higher can it possibly go as home prices continue to diverge from salaries (I know, famous last words, lol).

With that said, I'm selling my rental next month. At this point I see more likelihood for a correction than for it to continue skyrocketing. I guess I'm putting my money where my mouth is.

PockyClipsNow says

AZ/NV crashed so hard that in 2009/2010 you could get houses for 30% of the sales price they sold for in 05 at max insanity. Now they are almost back to 05 so most people buying got a 300% gain in those areas. Condos for 25k-50k now go for 150k.

I have two close friends who rode the Vegas suburban crash to the bottom and left financially devastated. They were too zoomed in on the short term and couldn't stomach the pain to look beyond the horizon. I can't say I blame them.

PockyClipsNow says

Anyone else here going to white flight from CA soon? What is your prediction about CA residential RE prices?

Mine is that the market stays flat or corrects 5-15% over the next 2-4yrs.

I struggle to see it continue to rise as I don't think salaries can support it. And I struggle to see a correction exceeding 15% since there is no subprime lending crisis but I do foresee interest rates rising which will have an effect.

Now, school loans and the car loan crisis, don't start me on that, lol...

Meh, retiring on $1M and keeping the standard of living the same (even with house paid off) doesn't look realistic. You sure the numbers work?

Strategic Renter says

Cash out, rent and pickup a half price home in a few years.

That's exactly what people were telling me in 2011 - thank god, I didn't listen and pulled the trigger because my mortgage + prop tax = 1/2 of what people pay in rent around here for my house

I should easily be able to retire on 1m + paid off house.

This allows 50k per yr spending if I get a 0% return on the 1m. Its likely to be higher than zero.

Then at age 67 I can sell my paid off house (if I need to, if I'm out of money) and move into a mobile home/cheaper area.

This plan is perfect.

I'm going to fart around with useless coding projects when I retire, just like our benefactor Patrick.

All the fun now is social media bots and astro turfing spam automation. Trump will need my help to win again next time, the zog is going to spend 3 trillion to keep him out of office. Bot war now.

PockyClipsNow says

I should easily be able to retire on 1m + paid off house.

It's better to retire on the returns once you have invested. That way your capital can last a lot longer. Use a part of your investment to buy property and rent it out. It will be a good steady income.

Strategist says

It's better to retire on the returns once you have invested. That way your capital can last a lot longer. Use a part of your investment to buy property and rent it out. It will be a good steady income.

I will do that. Some combo of rental income/stocks should be ok.

Of course stocks AND real estate are sky high now. Kind of like 2006.

The fact that the elevator is going down vs buidling going up doesnt really change any strategy. You still need to sit on assets to let them inflate with the money printing/QE or whatever the new word is.

Strategist says

Sorry but AGAIN I will point out that this rhetoric is bullshit. Compared to every other leader in the Islamic world, he's the most tolerant and peace seeking.

Does not sound tolerant at all.

Erdogan Launches Sunni Islamist Revival in Turkish Schools

www.newsweek.com/.../erdogan-launches-sunni-islamist-revival-turkish-schools-2922...

Dec 16, 2014 - Turkey has seen a sharp rise in religious schooling under reforms that its president Recep Tayyip ErdoÄŸan has cast as a defence against moral ...

http://www.newsweek.com/2014/12/26/erdogan-launches-sunni-islamist-revival-turkish-schools-292237.html

Islam is not a tolerant religion. For a Muslim to turn more towards Islam would make him less tolerant.

I agree with the general trend of feudalism and it coming back. Basically renters who cant/wont get loans are surfs and landlords are the nobles/elite PLUS corporatons are on top of this layer.

I don't know why you hate Trump so much because you're real estate rental empire is exactly how he made his billions. He's on your team dude, it doesn't matter if he is a fucking white male, his policies are going the help the landlord class. You got weathy but you need a mind makeover to THINK wealthy. Its crazy how you rant about income inequality when YOU made it to the 1%....from hard work and smart decisions. This is a very conservative value. The losers beg for free shit. Renters deserve to be renters and owners deserve to be owners. Its called equal opportunity and you used it well. Are a democrat because you suck dicks or something? I don't get it because you cant be a commie AND a landlord...right?

PockyClipsNow says

As good as the gains have been in CA, I think the desert got even MORE.

AZ/NV crashed so hard that in 2009/2010 you could get houses for 30% of the sales price they sold for in 05 at max insanity. Now they are almost back to 05 so most people buying got a 300% gain in those areas. Condos for 25k-50k now go for 150k.

Its all public record, use redfin if you wanna be depressed.

In NV they actually nearly outlawed forclosures in 10 i think, added a bunch of hurdles/delays to the process.

You can legally 'buy your short sale' in nevada for years now. They advertise this on billboards. That would have meant JAIL in pre 08 regulatory era.

Buy your own short sale. Think about how fucked that is. Its a principal reduction via 3rd party who sells it back to you after escrow. This is why only the feds will make home loans - its all socialized losses/privatized profits.

The Vegas $25-50k condos are not going for $150k....that's a small house in NLV north of Craig Road or a small townhome in Henderson

But yes all the markets in western US have at least rebounded.

LA is nuts and the guys saying salaries won't support the prices are badly missing what's going on. A 1800 sq ft sfr down the street from where I live sold at $1,049,000. I pay $1750 for a 1100 sq ft 2/2, and newer tenants are within $100 of that. For better comparison, the larger units are 1600 sq ft 3/2 and rent at $2300-2500.

I don't know where the money is coming from, but it's not salary. Can't imagine a household making $250,000 a year living in this nice, but sorely dated, neighborhood.

Pocky,

Congrats man! I've thought about cashing in and moving somewhere to retire. Given my and wife's families and siblings are all living here, we're stuck here.

If you listen to Bruce Norris, he expects the coming correction in the next couple of years to be a shallow one before the market resumes and moves higher, but the rate of appreciation will mimic the rate of inflation.

Good luck with the sale of your condo and the move to NV.

E-man says

Congrats man! I've thought about cashing in and moving somewhere to retire. Given my and wife's families and siblings are all living here, we're stuck here.

THanks e-man. I remember you as one of the old timey posters. I have family here but Im gonna move to NV anyway. Reno is nice because you can day trip down to mammoth, and then up to NorCal or Colorado much faster than from Los Angeles. Its also slightly less shitty than vegas. LA is locked in by pacific and then also mexico, where I am done with totally, so I always end up traveling the same fucking places.

I have not kept up with Bruce Norris but I was listening to him during the downturn, he was correct pretty much and he invests where he says. He must be worth a lot.

PockyClipsNow says

E-man says

Congrats man! I've thought about cashing in and moving somewhere to retire. Given my and wife's families and siblings are all living here, we're stuck here.

THanks e-man. I remember you as one of the old timey posters. I have family here but Im gonna move to NV anyway. Reno is nice because you can day trip down to mammoth, and then up to NorCal or Colorado much faster than from Los Angeles. Its also slightly less shitty than vegas. LA is locked in by pacific and then also mexico, where I am done with totally, so I always end up traveling the same fucking places.

I have not kept up with Bruce Norris but I was listening to him during the downturn, he was correct pretty much and he invests where he says. He must be worth a lot.

I did quite well during this downturn so I can't complain.

Bruce is doing quite well for himself and family. He bought some lots in the Villages, FL in 2013 and he has started doing new construction there. He got the lots cheap then, but the numbers don't pencil out based on current lot prices.

Based on the data he provided, looks like areas that are seeing the highest growth are FL, GA, SC and NC. I don't know if that was the reason that brought him to FL.

E-man says

Based on the data he provided, looks like areas that are seeing the highest growth are FL, GA, SC and NC. I don't know if that was the reason that brought him to FL.

I'm going to catch up on some Bruce podcasts. The I survived ones are pretty good. There are almost zero 'real estate gurus' that can be trusted. This guy Robert Campbell was ok, but not doing much more than shilling his newsletter. People I used to listen to but now hate: Peter Schiff and Mish Shedlock (both just typical newsletter shills).

I didn't have the cash to buy after the crash but did very well in the stock market instead since 2007. Bought some houses out of state and rent them however someday I'll lose the free property management.

Just in the past few weeks I've started to consider buying a condo to rent out here in San Diego while I continue to rent somewhat cheaply. Makes it easier to move around from biotech to biotech and keep a short commute. Also considering buying a condo in Maui to use as a vacation rental. I have a friend who has one and makes a tidy sum with pretty easy management via a VRBO app on his phone.

So far no rent control down here. That shit freaks me out a bit.. Not leaving CA for at least 10-15 years and if I go through with this I'd keep the place up until the point it comes under rent control.

"No Drama Obama" vs this shitshow

There sure seem to be a lot of landlords on this site...

BayArea says

There sure seem to be a lot of landlords on this site...

Fucking capitalists, exploiting the poor who make more than me.

E-man says

Look at Vancouver, Canada, Sydney, Australia, Shanghai, China as an example. Don't argue against the market.

Canadian bubble is imploding, or about to start. It will be fun watching.

FP says

What Trump does will have little effect on this process

To add to this, Erdogan's movement towards Islamic Conservatism (and pushing the legacy of the Ottoman Empire rather than the current Ataturk Republic) began long before Trump or Obama, back in the Dubya Days.

How much will the Military Industrial Complex make in this deal & it's collateral damage?

Pussy whipped with a Non-Disclosure???

Lashkar_i_Trumpi says

Do you realize your complaint just got totally Pwnd?

This is acceptable as long as Georgia or Ukraine replaces them.
Nato needs to grow, not shrink.

Lashkar_i_Trumpi says

Turkey should be suspended from NATO for it's actions against secular Journalists, Lawyers, and News Outlets

We need to transform the Country from a Capitalist/Corporate based private sector to a larger public sector. Having a large public sector controlling these Corporation surely would be more fair to the people and create more prosperity.

Its been done before: http://alphahistory.com/russianrevolution/bolshevik-economic-policy/

Or not?

bob2356 says

not toppling assad will result in many years of civil war.

This in not true. If Assad remains and those who oppose him are not being aided from abroad, there will be no civil war. Assad has a wide support in Syria. Check your facts (but not from the MSM).

Quigley says

The problem with land is that they aren't making more of it while they are making more people to fill it up.

I agree with most of your post above.

But the problem is not land, the problem is lack of building.

Take a plane flight across the country and look out the window to see how much of this country is uninhabited.

BayArea says

Take a plane flight across the country and look out the window to see how much of this country is uninhabited.

Those places don't have jobs. The problem with land is that it's usefulness is proportional to its population density, and thus also to its scarcity. This is why Georgism is the best economic philosophy.

No because essence has nothing to do with it

Dan8267 says

Those places don't have jobs.

Not true and although wages are lower in those places the standard of living is higher than it is in the bay area.

That's pretty funny. The guy with a trash can lid cannot possibly know how stupid he looks. It would be interesting seeing a hijab in the mix. I wonder what the police would do in that situation.

Never scratch a zit.

Imposing our will by arming foreign groups should be illegal.

CBOEtrader says

Imposing our will by arming foreign groups should be illegal.

Does that mean it should be illegal to arm the Yazidis to save them from being wiped out and sold into sex slavery by ISIS?

More times than not, "our will" coincides with the will and goals of our like-minded allies.

Video at 11:00?