patrick.net

homeowner_for ever_san jose says

If you can graph these three in bay area , we can see if it makes sense. unfortunately , i don’t have the data. To get a feel for wages and population growth, we can look at rents.

The population growth in Santa Clara County in last ten years is nothing unusual. In fact growth is slowing compare to previous two decades. http://www.sccgov.org/portal/site/planning/print?contentId=574a9d4bf9d74010VgnVCMP2200049dc4a92____

Between 1980 and 1990, Santa Clara County grew by 202,506 people. This growth represents a 16% increase in population. Similarly, between 1990 and 2000, the county grew by an additional 185,008, which accounts for a 12% change in population. It is predicted that the county's population will continue to grow, but at a slower rate. Moderate rates of growth in employment and housing development may account for this slow down in population growth. According to the Association of Bay Area Governments, by 2010, Santa Clara County's population is projected to increase by 197,115 people to 1,879,700. From 2010 to 2020, Santa Clara County's population is predicted to increase an additional 127,800 people to 2,007,500.

Median household income increased slightly ($74K in 1999 and $84K in 2007). http://www.city-data.com/county/Santa_Clara_County-CA.html

homeowner_for ever_san jose says

so it rents times inverse of 30 years fixed mortgage has gone up 300% in the time you are mentioning then home price appreciation in the same % makes sense.

Not sure what your point is. The rent definitely did not go up 300% in last ten years in Silicon Valley.

so , the median income increase = 84-74/74 *100 = 13.5 % population = approx = 10% ( population) interest rate = long term interest rate in 1999 / long term interest rate in 2008 = 8-5/5 *100 = 60% Total = 83.5% since 1999 looks like most of the gain is due to interest rates !! surprise surprise :-) i think 1999 is not the right year to pick as there was too much stuff going on ( stock bubble..etc) i'll re do the math for 1980 to 2009 ...when i have some time.. i left out inflation as a bonus to housing pessimists ! BTW, inflation increases housing prices.

P2D2 says

Not sure what your point is. The rent definitely did not go up 300% in last ten years in Silicon Valley.

Rents were flat but long term interest rate went down significantly which affects affordability. unfortunately most americans only ask one question : can i afford this home ( which means just monthly payment) ? i used to get suprised when car salesmen used to ONLY ask me how much monthly payment am i looking at ? I used to ask them to shut the f**k up and tell me the final price so that i can negotiate the final price and then work back words. One sales man told me that he was in the habit of asking monthly payments because thats what most guys worried about. unless people start looking at final price of an asset than monthly payment , We all will be debt slaves ...reality is that it will never happen because the masses are stupid ! so suck it up and make your calculations accordingly.

homeowner_for ever_san jose says

so , the median income increase = 84-74/74 *100 = 13.5 % population = approx = 10% ( population) interest rate = long term interest rate in 1999 / long term interest rate in 2008 = 8-5/5 *100 = 60% Total = 83.5% since 1999 looks like most of the gain is due to interest rates !! surprise surprise :-)

What the hell is this? Some multiplications and divisions? Please tell us how it makes sense. Are you serious or just playing with some numbers? Couple things to note. You did not take inflation into account. Your "Total" calculation 83.5% is just bogus.

homeowner_for ever_san jose says

so suck it up and make your calculations accordingly.

You mean the kind of calculation you posted above, right?

P2D2 says

homeowner_for ever_san jose says

so suck it up and make your calculations accordingly.

You mean the kind of calculation you posted above, right?

the sad truth that home prices will be inversely proportional to interest rates. and the fACT THAT GOVT will do everything to keep interest rates low (on popular demand )

homeowner_for ever_san jose says

the sad truth that home prices will be inversely proportional to interest rates. and the fACT THAT GOVT will do everything to keep interest rates low (on popular demand )

Are you trying to say that the interest rate in last three years so high that it caused housing bubble to burst? You are overestimating government.

nowhere but up from here says

You guys are hilarious….P2D2 says

camping says

You keep posting how you are great, brilliant, rich, pretty much the best investor ever. We get it. What is your point? Bring information to the table.

Actually if he is so eager to tell his success story, including bank account, he should publish his zipcode here and price range of his real estate investments, so that we can verify it.

Oh brother……would you also like birthdate, social security number, blood type and sperm count? On the other hand…. 94523….zip address for home…I also posted houses in this area below, at, and above asking prices sold….which was thoroughly brought up by my “friends” here I already stated that we asked “under” typical home values here and was bid up very quickly….. I trade both individual stocks…Apple, Morgan Stanley etc, ETF’s, and some bond instruments…btw, amazingly the 10yr and 30yr auction were pretty good in my opinion I’m not giving specific personal information….I would not expect the same from you either My grandparents left my parents 6 homes. My parents bought 7 of their own and left me 13. I started at age 24 and bought 5 BEFORE ‘02. No fancy mortgages or tricks. Just money down, put somebody in there and get another one when you have the money for it. All homes inherited are owned outright, I own 2 others outright, mortgage the one I’m in and sold the other that had and outstanding mortgage of 175k, it sold for 395k…IN THIS MARKET. Though none of this is good enough I know….it is all your getting. Thanks for asking.

Thanks for posting the information. If I need advice on how to inherit wealth, now I know who to ask.

have you heard "markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" here is one from me : " The Govt can delay the inevitable longer than you can stay alive "

homeowner_for ever_san jose says

here is one from me : ” The Govt can delay the inevitable longer than you can stay alive “

Here is one from me: "Above statement is pure nonsense (as nonsensical as this calculation)".

well thats already true for someone who was born in 1904 and died in 2004.

camping says

Thanks for posting the information. If I need advice on how to inherit wealth, now I know who to ask.

But don't be so negative about inheritance (sarcasm). Even inheritance requires "BALLS to make it work". Probably he had to kill couple of his siblings to inherit those properties. That indeed requires balls.

hey P2D2 : The Govt can delay the inevitable longer than we can stay alive so just chill out !

homeowner_for ever_san jose, I am already chilling out. After you posted this one liner I decided to ignore it, because it is another nonsensical comment. Your calculations are bogus. Your arguments are very vague. Why are you addressing me? Do you need lot of attention? What happened? Nobody pays you attention in real life?

i thought i would talk to someone who doesn't understand that housing goes up with inflation and give some economics 101 :-) BTW, i am not the one who is on this board 24/7 for attention and talking like a small kid.

homeowner_for ever_san jose says

i thought i would talk to someone who doesn’t understand that housing goes up with inflation and give some economics 101 :-) BTW, i am not the one who is on this board 24/7 for attention and talking like a small kid.

I understand that when I called your absurd calculation (not first time, another classic calculation) BOGUS, it must be very offending for you. Isn't that a shame that a "small kid" can expose all the bogus stuffs in your arguments? How about some mature argument and calculation like a grown-up? I don't address people with "hey P2D2". Rather I address the contents/statements from posted comments. So who is craving for attention?

You cannot go to a first grade class and hope that they would understand calculus..i have given up on you the same way..you shout "bogus" like a small kid without any evidence to disprove it. its not even worth talking to you. BTW, do you know that housing goes up with inflation ? if not , you won't say that i didn't include inflation in my calculation and that makes it bogus. inflation actually will increase the value and i left it on purpose just to make it little pessimistic. Just by looking at the conversation style and how you get intimidated by math,i can bet my bottom dollar that you don't have a solid educational background or you don't have much to say about you schooling performance.

I think I understand why you come to this board Nowhere. If your houses are median houses in 94523, then they were each worth around $650k between 2005 and 2006 according to city-data.com. Now they are each worth under $450k. That winds up being 18 * $200k = $3.6M of lost equity on paper. I guess I'd be pretty ticked off too. Maybe I wouldn't be that mad though since M+D handed it all down to me.

homeowner_for ever_san jose says

You cannot go to a first grade class and hope that they would understand calculus..i have given up on you the same way..you shout “bogus” like a small kid without any evidence to disprove it.

Well, I asked you to explain it. You didn't. What evidence? You just added all the changes (population 10%, median 13.5% and interest rate change 60%) and made it 83.5%. You seriously think it makes sense? Come on! It is bogus in a face value. If you think your calculation makes sense, how about show a single source where they calculated this way? If not, you must have invented a new methodology. You must patent it. Why wasting time here (sarcasm). Or find a single person here who thinks it makes sense? Your calculus analogy is funny and self-defeating. Calculus is an established discipline in mathematics. Your calculation is NOT. Your argument boils down to this: If you don't understand my calculation, it must be calculus. :) Here, my calculation: 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 = 999999. You won't understand it because it is calculus.

P2D2 : ever heard about back of the envelop calculations ? I am not taking mathematics class here to explain small details to people who dropped out of high school. anyway, let me give it a try without starting with 1+1 = 2 When Price is a function of (x,y,z ) and has linear relationship with each independent variable then % change in the Price will be more than % change in x + % change in y + % change in z

nowhere but up from here says

But camping….why would you get mad when you never paid that much? There’s no reason to get mad about anything. Your LOST means as much as when someone said IT’s WORTH XYZ. BTW…..I bought my houses on my own. My grandparents died from a hardworking, good life. I lost my parents in a car crash. You can have the houses, I would rather have my parents back.

I'm not sure what the first paragraph means. Just because you were handed houses for a lower price than they are now doesn't mean you shouldn't be mad about them decreasing in value. If I inherited $10M and invested it poorly to the point that it is now only worth $5M, I would be annoyed. I certainly wouldn't be gloating about my failures even though I can write about them to make them look like successes. That's sad about your parents. As far as you buying the houses on your own, that's highly suspect since it is clear that you likely inherited a large sum of money too. Inheriting $1M and then buying 5 houses with it, isn't really you buying them on your own. I still don't see why you are gloating on this board. By explaining yourself, you clearly aren't a self-made man. You inherited your wealth. Big deal, good for you, way to go.

does it matter if somebody is self made or inherited ..its only a perception of some guy on the street. The buying power of the money does not change whether its self made or inherited. If the guy does not care about what others think ( most rich people don't) then he is having more fun than us because he has more money. fair money is rare in any country. most money is made due to some kind of advantage ( assymetric information), inheritance, family background, role models, exposure to right people, moats ..etc Do you honestly believe that given all the variables same in this world ,you and me deserve more money than a guy in somalia working 24X7 365 days and earning 1/100 th of what we get paid ? We are enjoying the benefit of being born in the right country and nowhere is enjoying the benefit of being born in the right family ...does it matter ?

homeowner_for ever_san jose says

When Price is a function of (x,y,z ) and has linear relationship with each independent variable then % change in the Price will be more than % change in x + % change in y + % change in z

I am seriously questioning about your math skills. Let's revisit what you calculated HH income increase = 13.5 % population increase 10% interest rate = 60% Total = 83.5% You are just adding up apples, oranges, cherry and made it a big "Total". That's NOT "linear relationship". I doubt you even know the meaning of "linear relationship". What is the significance of the total number 83.5% here? Meaningless. Did you pass high school math? Seriously. Yes, house price is function of X,Y,Z. But function of (X,Y,Z) is not same as X+Y+Z. That's where your math skill fails, MISERABLY. Let me explain you in way I would explain to a high school student. Ready? You have money in three places: 1. Piggy bank: You have $10 2. Your wallet: You have $500 3. You bank account: You have $10,000. After one month, spent some money in following way: 1. From piggy bank: $5 (50%) 2. From wallet: $100 (20%) 3. From bank account: $100 (1%) Now the magic "Total": 50 + 20 + 1 = 71%. Do you really think this "71%" total is anything other than meaningless? Or let's talk about "linear relationship" here. :) If you think your 83.5% makes sense, then 71% got to be making sense, right? Boy, you spent Total 71% of your money? :) Let me repeat: If you think your calculation makes sense, how about show a single source where they calculated this way?

P2D2 : are you an idiot ? F(xyz) = k*x*y*z where K is a contant you are doing f(xyz) = k1*x + k2*y +k3*z Do you think house price is an additive function of interest rates , population growth and median income...duh? i want to stop here. bye BTW, I have a masters degree in maths

homeowner_for ever_san jose says

does it matter if somebody is self made or inherited ..its only a perception of some guy on the street. The buying power of the money does not change whether its self made or inherited. If the guy does not care about what others think ( most rich people don’t) then he is having more fun than us because he has more money. fair money is rare in any country. most money is made due to some kind of advantage ( assymetric information), inheritance, family background, role models, exposure to right people, moats ..etc Do you honestly believe that given all the variables same in this world ,you and me deserve more money than a guy in somalia working 24X7 365 days and earning 1/100 th of what we get paid ? We are enjoying the benefit of being born in the right country and nowhere is enjoying the benefit of being born in the right family …does it matter ?

It matters when you brag about it. Nowhere is taking credit for what his grandparents and parents did. I have no problem with people who inherit money, but don't present yourself as a guy who worked hard and saved up to buy a house or houses. From what Nowhere has said, it's all pretty much been handed to him. His comments show that it wasn't self-earned, which is why he gloats about it. It makes him feel special. Wealthy people who have earned it, generally don't flaunt it. If he didn't want to be criticized, he shouldn't act like a d**k.

homeowner_for ever_san jose says

F(xyz) = k*x*y*z where K is a contant

Another non-sense. I repeat: If you think your calculation makes sense, how about show a single source where they calculated this way?

its common sense dude...wake up...thats why most people on this forum are not crying like you. They are mature enough to undertand what i am trying to convey..we are not splitting hair here do we ? I think you should work on improving your right brain functionality. BTW right brain helps in holistic big picture approach to problems. you seriously have very low IQ ...tell us honestly : what was your GPA ? did you complete school ?

homeowner_for ever_san jose says

BTW, I have a masters degree in maths

This one takes the cake. Hilarious. Master degree in math from where? Planet Jupiter? Was it master in math or meth? May be you should add "Master in Math Meth" with your login name here. Or may be you should scan your degree certificate and put it as as your avatar image. Because from your calculations your math skill is not obvious.

homeowner_for ever_san jose says

They are mature enough to undertand what i am trying to convey

Silence is not a validation of your absurd calculation. First lack of math skill. And now logical fallacy. What's next?

1) doesn't understand that inflation helps house prices. 2) makes an absurd claim that housing is only related to median income ( gave a link to newyork times) - sheep mentality..cannot question published sources. was proven an idiot when i showed that interest rates were high in 1979 and need to be factored in for the low price to median income ratio. 3) is claiming that house price affordability is additive function of interest rate , median income and population growth. even a high school grad will laugh at it. 4)always looking for some other source of calculation.will believe that horse shit is gold if somebody has a published paper in reputed journal ( no independent thinking) here is the absurd quote from this guy "New York Times median income vs median home price chart 1979: Median home price to median income ratio = 4 2009: same ratio = 6.6 In last 30 years this ratio never been above 6 until 2002 (not even in 1989-1991 bubble). "

homeowner_for ever_san jose says

here is the absurd quote from this guy “New York Times median income vs median home price chart 1979: Median home price to median income ratio = 4 2009: same ratio = 6.6 In last 30 years this ratio never been above 6 until 2002 (not even in 1989-1991 bubble). “

That's called OBSERVATION and observation is valid (if not, tell us where the observation is "absurd"). Not a calculation. :)

homeowner_for ever_san jose says

1) doesn’t understand that inflation helps housing. 2) makes an absurd claim that housing is only related to median income ( gave a link to newyork times) - sheep mentality..cannot question published sources. was proven an idiot when i showed that interest rates were high in 1979 and need to be factored in for the low price to median income ratio. 3) is claiming that house price affordability is additive function of interest rate , median income and population growth. even a high school grad will laugh at it. 4)always looking for some other source of calculation.will believe that horse shit is gold if somebody has a published paper in reputed journal ( no idependent thinking)

:) I am taking above statements as your opinions. Not facts.

Here's a fun fact: 90% of people think they are above-average intelligence. Keep this in mind when you call someone stupid.

youngniceeyes says

Ditto, to what Tude said. I am waiting for the economic collapse to happen when China will stop giving the US money. We will really hit a high unemployment rate then. At that point, houses will sell for next to nothing, only a matter of time. On top of that, I heard that China is buying 93 billion worth of gold. Most Americans turn a blind eye to what China is thinking and doing but the shit will hit the fan in a few years, maybe even sooner. I can’t believe China hasn’t pulled the plug yet because the US is a deadbeat nation that doesn’t pay its bills.

If China completely stopped buying US federal debt, two things would happen: 1. The interest rate on new debt would go up slightly (remember folks, China is the largest foreign government owner of US debt, but it's also only 5% of our total debt. The post office owns more federal debt than China does). 2. China's export economy would collapse as they would no longer have anything to do with all those dollars. How is the US a deadbeat nation that doesn't pay its bills? Can you show me when the US has ever defaulted on its debt? I can show you how virtually every other wealthy country has.

knewbetter says

90% of people think they are above-average intelligence. Keep this in mind when you call someone stupid.

But at least one person here has masters in math. :)

Nowhere, you really should re-read your posts before you hit submit. They make no sense.

P2D2 says

knewbetter says

90% of people think they are above-average intelligence. Keep this in mind when you call someone stupid.

But at least one person here has masters in math. Actually, it is a masters in maths (plural), both old and new math, depending on which better serves an argument.

If this makes sense to you, Paris, I mean Nowhere, then we must speak a different language: Nowhere said: Now if you ever have kids, and I hope not for their sake, you would probably care about them and consider them if you, god forbid, leave this world….that means you’re dead CheeseWhiz. Now, I have taken all my family assets and my own and DOUBLED them. That means your probably doing good at what you do….and I must admit….it’s a lot. As for criticizing me for being a renter, I'm comfortable with it. I've had my opportunities to buy, but I've chosen to wait a little longer, and I'm glad I did. Although, I'm sure if my mommy and daddy left me with a bunch of houses and money, I could be a landlord too. Maybe you should write a book, Paris, I mean, Nowhere (I don't know why I keep making that mistake), on how to be rich by inheritance.

camping says

I’m sure if my mommy and daddy left me with a bunch of houses and money, I could be a landlord too. Maybe you should write a book, Paris, I mean, Nowhere (I don’t know why I keep making that mistake), on how to be rich by inheritance.

But hey, to be fair, Paris wrote a book. I know there are many ghost writers, but at least she knows how to earn money from book deals or getting popularity by posting her own sex tape online. She is not dumb and she knows how to make things work, without gloating about her inherited wealth or bragging about her non-existent balls or bank account in an internet forum.