patrick.net

homeowner_for ever_san jose says

i thought i would talk to someone who doesn’t understand that housing goes up with inflation and give some economics 101 :-) BTW, i am not the one who is on this board 24/7 for attention and talking like a small kid.

I understand that when I called your absurd calculation (not first time, another classic calculation) BOGUS, it must be very offending for you. Isn't that a shame that a "small kid" can expose all the bogus stuffs in your arguments? How about some mature argument and calculation like a grown-up? I don't address people with "hey P2D2". Rather I address the contents/statements from posted comments. So who is craving for attention?

You cannot go to a first grade class and hope that they would understand calculus..i have given up on you the same way..you shout "bogus" like a small kid without any evidence to disprove it. its not even worth talking to you. BTW, do you know that housing goes up with inflation ? if not , you won't say that i didn't include inflation in my calculation and that makes it bogus. inflation actually will increase the value and i left it on purpose just to make it little pessimistic. Just by looking at the conversation style and how you get intimidated by math,i can bet my bottom dollar that you don't have a solid educational background or you don't have much to say about you schooling performance.

I think I understand why you come to this board Nowhere. If your houses are median houses in 94523, then they were each worth around $650k between 2005 and 2006 according to city-data.com. Now they are each worth under $450k. That winds up being 18 * $200k = $3.6M of lost equity on paper. I guess I'd be pretty ticked off too. Maybe I wouldn't be that mad though since M+D handed it all down to me.

homeowner_for ever_san jose says

You cannot go to a first grade class and hope that they would understand calculus..i have given up on you the same way..you shout “bogus” like a small kid without any evidence to disprove it.

Well, I asked you to explain it. You didn't. What evidence? You just added all the changes (population 10%, median 13.5% and interest rate change 60%) and made it 83.5%. You seriously think it makes sense? Come on! It is bogus in a face value. If you think your calculation makes sense, how about show a single source where they calculated this way? If not, you must have invented a new methodology. You must patent it. Why wasting time here (sarcasm). Or find a single person here who thinks it makes sense? Your calculus analogy is funny and self-defeating. Calculus is an established discipline in mathematics. Your calculation is NOT. Your argument boils down to this: If you don't understand my calculation, it must be calculus. :) Here, my calculation: 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 = 999999. You won't understand it because it is calculus.

P2D2 : ever heard about back of the envelop calculations ? I am not taking mathematics class here to explain small details to people who dropped out of high school. anyway, let me give it a try without starting with 1+1 = 2 When Price is a function of (x,y,z ) and has linear relationship with each independent variable then % change in the Price will be more than % change in x + % change in y + % change in z

nowhere but up from here says

But camping….why would you get mad when you never paid that much? There’s no reason to get mad about anything. Your LOST means as much as when someone said IT’s WORTH XYZ. BTW…..I bought my houses on my own. My grandparents died from a hardworking, good life. I lost my parents in a car crash. You can have the houses, I would rather have my parents back.

I'm not sure what the first paragraph means. Just because you were handed houses for a lower price than they are now doesn't mean you shouldn't be mad about them decreasing in value. If I inherited $10M and invested it poorly to the point that it is now only worth $5M, I would be annoyed. I certainly wouldn't be gloating about my failures even though I can write about them to make them look like successes. That's sad about your parents. As far as you buying the houses on your own, that's highly suspect since it is clear that you likely inherited a large sum of money too. Inheriting $1M and then buying 5 houses with it, isn't really you buying them on your own. I still don't see why you are gloating on this board. By explaining yourself, you clearly aren't a self-made man. You inherited your wealth. Big deal, good for you, way to go.

does it matter if somebody is self made or inherited ..its only a perception of some guy on the street. The buying power of the money does not change whether its self made or inherited. If the guy does not care about what others think ( most rich people don't) then he is having more fun than us because he has more money. fair money is rare in any country. most money is made due to some kind of advantage ( assymetric information), inheritance, family background, role models, exposure to right people, moats ..etc Do you honestly believe that given all the variables same in this world ,you and me deserve more money than a guy in somalia working 24X7 365 days and earning 1/100 th of what we get paid ? We are enjoying the benefit of being born in the right country and nowhere is enjoying the benefit of being born in the right family ...does it matter ?

homeowner_for ever_san jose says

When Price is a function of (x,y,z ) and has linear relationship with each independent variable then % change in the Price will be more than % change in x + % change in y + % change in z

I am seriously questioning about your math skills. Let's revisit what you calculated HH income increase = 13.5 % population increase 10% interest rate = 60% Total = 83.5% You are just adding up apples, oranges, cherry and made it a big "Total". That's NOT "linear relationship". I doubt you even know the meaning of "linear relationship". What is the significance of the total number 83.5% here? Meaningless. Did you pass high school math? Seriously. Yes, house price is function of X,Y,Z. But function of (X,Y,Z) is not same as X+Y+Z. That's where your math skill fails, MISERABLY. Let me explain you in way I would explain to a high school student. Ready? You have money in three places: 1. Piggy bank: You have $10 2. Your wallet: You have $500 3. You bank account: You have $10,000. After one month, spent some money in following way: 1. From piggy bank: $5 (50%) 2. From wallet: $100 (20%) 3. From bank account: $100 (1%) Now the magic "Total": 50 + 20 + 1 = 71%. Do you really think this "71%" total is anything other than meaningless? Or let's talk about "linear relationship" here. :) If you think your 83.5% makes sense, then 71% got to be making sense, right? Boy, you spent Total 71% of your money? :) Let me repeat: If you think your calculation makes sense, how about show a single source where they calculated this way?

P2D2 : are you an idiot ? F(xyz) = k*x*y*z where K is a contant you are doing f(xyz) = k1*x + k2*y +k3*z Do you think house price is an additive function of interest rates , population growth and median income...duh? i want to stop here. bye BTW, I have a masters degree in maths

homeowner_for ever_san jose says

does it matter if somebody is self made or inherited ..its only a perception of some guy on the street. The buying power of the money does not change whether its self made or inherited. If the guy does not care about what others think ( most rich people don’t) then he is having more fun than us because he has more money. fair money is rare in any country. most money is made due to some kind of advantage ( assymetric information), inheritance, family background, role models, exposure to right people, moats ..etc Do you honestly believe that given all the variables same in this world ,you and me deserve more money than a guy in somalia working 24X7 365 days and earning 1/100 th of what we get paid ? We are enjoying the benefit of being born in the right country and nowhere is enjoying the benefit of being born in the right family …does it matter ?

It matters when you brag about it. Nowhere is taking credit for what his grandparents and parents did. I have no problem with people who inherit money, but don't present yourself as a guy who worked hard and saved up to buy a house or houses. From what Nowhere has said, it's all pretty much been handed to him. His comments show that it wasn't self-earned, which is why he gloats about it. It makes him feel special. Wealthy people who have earned it, generally don't flaunt it. If he didn't want to be criticized, he shouldn't act like a d**k.

homeowner_for ever_san jose says

F(xyz) = k*x*y*z where K is a contant

Another non-sense. I repeat: If you think your calculation makes sense, how about show a single source where they calculated this way?

its common sense dude...wake up...thats why most people on this forum are not crying like you. They are mature enough to undertand what i am trying to convey..we are not splitting hair here do we ? I think you should work on improving your right brain functionality. BTW right brain helps in holistic big picture approach to problems. you seriously have very low IQ ...tell us honestly : what was your GPA ? did you complete school ?

homeowner_for ever_san jose says

BTW, I have a masters degree in maths

This one takes the cake. Hilarious. Master degree in math from where? Planet Jupiter? Was it master in math or meth? May be you should add "Master in Math Meth" with your login name here. Or may be you should scan your degree certificate and put it as as your avatar image. Because from your calculations your math skill is not obvious.

homeowner_for ever_san jose says

They are mature enough to undertand what i am trying to convey

Silence is not a validation of your absurd calculation. First lack of math skill. And now logical fallacy. What's next?

1) doesn't understand that inflation helps house prices. 2) makes an absurd claim that housing is only related to median income ( gave a link to newyork times) - sheep mentality..cannot question published sources. was proven an idiot when i showed that interest rates were high in 1979 and need to be factored in for the low price to median income ratio. 3) is claiming that house price affordability is additive function of interest rate , median income and population growth. even a high school grad will laugh at it. 4)always looking for some other source of calculation.will believe that horse shit is gold if somebody has a published paper in reputed journal ( no independent thinking) here is the absurd quote from this guy "New York Times median income vs median home price chart 1979: Median home price to median income ratio = 4 2009: same ratio = 6.6 In last 30 years this ratio never been above 6 until 2002 (not even in 1989-1991 bubble). "

homeowner_for ever_san jose says

here is the absurd quote from this guy “New York Times median income vs median home price chart 1979: Median home price to median income ratio = 4 2009: same ratio = 6.6 In last 30 years this ratio never been above 6 until 2002 (not even in 1989-1991 bubble). “

That's called OBSERVATION and observation is valid (if not, tell us where the observation is "absurd"). Not a calculation. :)

homeowner_for ever_san jose says

1) doesn’t understand that inflation helps housing. 2) makes an absurd claim that housing is only related to median income ( gave a link to newyork times) - sheep mentality..cannot question published sources. was proven an idiot when i showed that interest rates were high in 1979 and need to be factored in for the low price to median income ratio. 3) is claiming that house price affordability is additive function of interest rate , median income and population growth. even a high school grad will laugh at it. 4)always looking for some other source of calculation.will believe that horse shit is gold if somebody has a published paper in reputed journal ( no idependent thinking)

:) I am taking above statements as your opinions. Not facts.

Here's a fun fact: 90% of people think they are above-average intelligence. Keep this in mind when you call someone stupid.

youngniceeyes says

Ditto, to what Tude said. I am waiting for the economic collapse to happen when China will stop giving the US money. We will really hit a high unemployment rate then. At that point, houses will sell for next to nothing, only a matter of time. On top of that, I heard that China is buying 93 billion worth of gold. Most Americans turn a blind eye to what China is thinking and doing but the shit will hit the fan in a few years, maybe even sooner. I can’t believe China hasn’t pulled the plug yet because the US is a deadbeat nation that doesn’t pay its bills.

If China completely stopped buying US federal debt, two things would happen: 1. The interest rate on new debt would go up slightly (remember folks, China is the largest foreign government owner of US debt, but it's also only 5% of our total debt. The post office owns more federal debt than China does). 2. China's export economy would collapse as they would no longer have anything to do with all those dollars. How is the US a deadbeat nation that doesn't pay its bills? Can you show me when the US has ever defaulted on its debt? I can show you how virtually every other wealthy country has.

knewbetter says

90% of people think they are above-average intelligence. Keep this in mind when you call someone stupid.

But at least one person here has masters in math. :)

Nowhere, you really should re-read your posts before you hit submit. They make no sense.

P2D2 says

knewbetter says

90% of people think they are above-average intelligence. Keep this in mind when you call someone stupid.

But at least one person here has masters in math. Actually, it is a masters in maths (plural), both old and new math, depending on which better serves an argument.

If this makes sense to you, Paris, I mean Nowhere, then we must speak a different language: Nowhere said: Now if you ever have kids, and I hope not for their sake, you would probably care about them and consider them if you, god forbid, leave this world….that means you’re dead CheeseWhiz. Now, I have taken all my family assets and my own and DOUBLED them. That means your probably doing good at what you do….and I must admit….it’s a lot. As for criticizing me for being a renter, I'm comfortable with it. I've had my opportunities to buy, but I've chosen to wait a little longer, and I'm glad I did. Although, I'm sure if my mommy and daddy left me with a bunch of houses and money, I could be a landlord too. Maybe you should write a book, Paris, I mean, Nowhere (I don't know why I keep making that mistake), on how to be rich by inheritance.

camping says

I’m sure if my mommy and daddy left me with a bunch of houses and money, I could be a landlord too. Maybe you should write a book, Paris, I mean, Nowhere (I don’t know why I keep making that mistake), on how to be rich by inheritance.

But hey, to be fair, Paris wrote a book. I know there are many ghost writers, but at least she knows how to earn money from book deals or getting popularity by posting her own sex tape online. She is not dumb and she knows how to make things work, without gloating about her inherited wealth or bragging about her non-existent balls or bank account in an internet forum.

The following numbers are from RealtyTrac. These are not total numbers, listed are only those homes where status changed in the first 11 days of September. County: Pre-Foreclosure / Auction / Bank-Owned Sacramento: 1020 / 972 / 350 San Joaquin: 512 / 634 / 277 Stanislaus: 414 / 473 / 314 Merced: 349 / 237 / 73 San Francisco: 92 / 74 / 58 San Mateo: 273 / 151 / 41 Santa Clara: 438 / 504 / 121 Alameda: 892 / 626 / 155 Contra Costa: 603 / 641 / 437

...a major drop in prices in a few months!

Not a chance in hell. Not if congress has anything to do about it, and they will.

Because the NAR is a major lobbyist, and full transparency isn't in their interest. The American public seem only too willing to be duped and charmed and led into hysteria, (look at the rope-a-dope going in the stock market right now), and you would have to be either honest or a fool not to exploit that. That's business. A better question is, Why would congress interfere in that? No, the government will keep gigging the interest rate, along with creating tax incentives for buyers and allowing for cheap FHA loans (my guess is that they will raise the loan amounts next year) in order to keep the fires stoked while the NAR, Toll Bros, et al, entreat the willing ignorant with copy like Pounce Before the Bounce. (Ahem.)

May not help house prices, but it may help with new re-fi business. There are quite a few loans coming up for a reset that are about $10k underwater. Those folks may be willing to cough up the $10k to re-fi to a loan at 4.XX%, especially when the reset is about to hit. The banks get to make new loans (with new fees), and are not worried about the loss of high interest from the old loans, as that paper was sold off long ago.

HeadSet says

May not help house prices, but it may help with new re-fi business. There are quite a few loans coming up for a reset that are about $10k underwater. Those folks may be willing to cough up the $10k to re-fi to a loan at 4.XX%, especially when the reset is about to hit. The banks get to make new loans (with new fees), and are not worried about the loss of high interest from the old loans, as that paper was sold off long ago.

But they are requiring that people actually qualify and prove that they are able to pay back the loan. For those loans hopelessly under water, rates don't matter. Yesterday a woman I know was saying that the loan on the house she & her husband bought will reset next year(she's bitter because they bought at the height of the bubble, got a teeny house and now there are nicer, larger homes for half of what she paid). She said that a loan counselor told them not to worry about the prevailing rates, they should be able to modify at 1-2% because the bank should be grateful they're still paying in the loan at all. They paid $1,500 up front for this help and advice... I should mention that they have no problem paying for the loan, even when it resets. They just so entitled that they shouldn't have to pay what they owe.

Any feedback? It would look like putting 20% down and committing to pay 480K for the next 30 years is fair. According to the 15 times yearly rent valuation (or P/E, price to earnings ratio =15), this property should be around: 468K. It's a brand new condo, 2 bedrooms, 1,287sq feet, $369 hoa fees

Yes, section 8 is in all areas but it is more dominate in relatively poor areas with relatively high rents. In these type of areas it definitely distorts (raises rents) much less so in other areas. In an odd way prop 13 is keeping property tax revenues from totally collapsing. By keeping assessed values detached from the market values of the last years many people (those who have owned property for many years) are still seeing their tax bills increase by the max allowed under prop 13 even though the market worth of their property has substantially decreased. This has somewhat softened the blow to government entities that rely on this revenue. Of course a fair part of the run up in values in CA can be contributed to prop 13.

As an independent it seems very slanted to me as well, but I try to focus on the housing bubble links Patrick leaves us each day – most of these contain excellent information. I applaud Patrick for his work on this, his site. While I often disagree with the crowd here, Patrick and his followers have the liberty and freedom to slant it in any direction they want to. This site has made me significantly more intelligent with regards to the housing situation here in America. Click where you want to click. There are violently argumentative trolls in the forums (as with most forums throughout the internet…and btw, thank you Al Gore for your invention). Take the comments and their authors for what they are worth and ignore most of them. 10 bucks says both you and I are going to get hosed by "Some Guy" for our respective comments.

Last time I checked the constitution and bill of rights are the underlying document for all Americans. So any true conservative, independent, Republican, Libertarian and other hard working, taxpaying, patriotic American defenders of the constitution must by definition defend the rights of the liberals, elitists, socialists, Democrats, whiners and the like to exist and be heard. Ironic isn't it? This is where the rushbots fail to grasp the principle. The words big liberal and government are not synonymies. You can have any combination you want. BTW I am a libertarian who doesn't own a tv.

Could you say the same about Sarbanes and Oxley legislation which passed rather quickly in 2003? It would be in every consumers interest, to write to their congress person to create similar legislation regarding RE buying.

Sarbanes Oxley was a nice bit o' policy in theory, but proved to be all but totally ineffectual when it came to real financial oversight/stricter bookkeeping. A non-threat, as it were. I think the present landscape reflects that rather well. Writing your congressman, meanwhile, is like sitting on someone's shoulders to get a better look at the moon. Quaint, but not too effective. Face it: We are disenfranchised, and that's how we'll stay!

If that's anywhere near the Wal-Mart then run, Forrest, run. If you don't believe us, go to that Wal-Mart on a Saturday afternoon. Those people will be your neighbors.

Some Guy, What is your net worth? The reason that I ask is that it is highly unlikely that someone that has any money to speak of would spend this much of their time and efforts in a housing bubble forum politicizing everything. It has been my experience has been folks like you can't even afford to buy a hybrid vehicle. A ball park number on that net worth would suffice. Are you married and do you have kids? I'm just curious if the passion you have politically has an effect of dampening your relationships or maybe you only show this side of you on this (and possibly other) forums? If you want to make a real difference to yourself and your country you would argue less and work harder. We can all use the increased tax base. Before you fire back with a "none of your business" or "you &%&$ing republican", I am simply trying to understand where you are coming from. I'm trying to put myself in your shoes.

Just for your information, there was a big protest in Washingotn DC on Saturday (9/12). Mostly ignored by the media.

Some Guy says

Get a fucking life.

That violates the only rule on the forum: be polite.

Bapman said:

#1) 20% down to buy a house and no bubble-crap made new homes in a new subdivision being rentals a bit more rare, and Section 8 requirements are so high that only nicer homes qualify for the program now. #2) Invader-hyperbreeders had not been given the greenlight with the liberal court block of Prop. 187 yet. The blocking of Prop 187 was the trigger for the invasion, and the freebees made things ripe for breeding at 15. #3) Intrest rates were 14% or so. #4) The colture was not as degenerate as now, so accepting welfare and having babies on the state wasnot en vouge. Intitlements were not so popular

As for number 1, That was true at different points the 80s, and 90's too, providing a counter example that disproves your argument. As for number 2, Please read the following books, The Grapes of Wrath, and Cannery Row too, if your felling froggy. These books depict a counter-example, to your point. No sense trying to say it better than Steinbeck. As for number 3, Please see my response to point number 1. And finally point 4, Please read the following: Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail '72. Better not try to outshine Hunter S. Thompson. You could also read Burroughs and some of the earlier Beat Poets, they describe a culture within America that is as degenerate as anything that has existed since. LOL, that reminds me. . . I read Junkie, when I was about 11, Holy Cow. . . Let me tell you, that book should be required reading for 11 year olds, as I can't think of a better way to educate kids about the Horrors of Drugs; Or at least scare them away.

Ramonp, You're far too generous. You can rent the following for $2,395/month on Craislist: "Bright & airy, very comfortable, 2000 sq ft, 3 bedroom 2 bath house with large back yard available for rent. The schools are West Valley Elementary (930 API score), Cupertino Middle (913 API score) & Homestead High School (846 API score). The house is located in Sunnyvale." (http://sfbay.craigslist.org/sby/apa/1371926184.html) (Search date 9/14/09.) Big assumption on my part: a 3 bed, 2 bath house probably built in the early 1960s is equivalent to a brand new 2 bed, 2 bath condo with $369 HOA dues. Hmmm...come to think of it...that rent value may be too high.