patrick.net

homeowner_for ever_san jose says

here is the absurd quote from this guy “New York Times median income vs median home price chart 1979: Median home price to median income ratio = 4 2009: same ratio = 6.6 In last 30 years this ratio never been above 6 until 2002 (not even in 1989-1991 bubble). “

That's called OBSERVATION and observation is valid (if not, tell us where the observation is "absurd"). Not a calculation. :)

homeowner_for ever_san jose says

1) doesn’t understand that inflation helps housing. 2) makes an absurd claim that housing is only related to median income ( gave a link to newyork times) - sheep mentality..cannot question published sources. was proven an idiot when i showed that interest rates were high in 1979 and need to be factored in for the low price to median income ratio. 3) is claiming that house price affordability is additive function of interest rate , median income and population growth. even a high school grad will laugh at it. 4)always looking for some other source of calculation.will believe that horse shit is gold if somebody has a published paper in reputed journal ( no idependent thinking)

:) I am taking above statements as your opinions. Not facts.

Here's a fun fact: 90% of people think they are above-average intelligence. Keep this in mind when you call someone stupid.

youngniceeyes says

Ditto, to what Tude said. I am waiting for the economic collapse to happen when China will stop giving the US money. We will really hit a high unemployment rate then. At that point, houses will sell for next to nothing, only a matter of time. On top of that, I heard that China is buying 93 billion worth of gold. Most Americans turn a blind eye to what China is thinking and doing but the shit will hit the fan in a few years, maybe even sooner. I can’t believe China hasn’t pulled the plug yet because the US is a deadbeat nation that doesn’t pay its bills.

If China completely stopped buying US federal debt, two things would happen: 1. The interest rate on new debt would go up slightly (remember folks, China is the largest foreign government owner of US debt, but it's also only 5% of our total debt. The post office owns more federal debt than China does). 2. China's export economy would collapse as they would no longer have anything to do with all those dollars. How is the US a deadbeat nation that doesn't pay its bills? Can you show me when the US has ever defaulted on its debt? I can show you how virtually every other wealthy country has.

knewbetter says

90% of people think they are above-average intelligence. Keep this in mind when you call someone stupid.

But at least one person here has masters in math. :)

Nowhere, you really should re-read your posts before you hit submit. They make no sense.

P2D2 says

knewbetter says

90% of people think they are above-average intelligence. Keep this in mind when you call someone stupid.

But at least one person here has masters in math. Actually, it is a masters in maths (plural), both old and new math, depending on which better serves an argument.

If this makes sense to you, Paris, I mean Nowhere, then we must speak a different language: Nowhere said: Now if you ever have kids, and I hope not for their sake, you would probably care about them and consider them if you, god forbid, leave this world….that means you’re dead CheeseWhiz. Now, I have taken all my family assets and my own and DOUBLED them. That means your probably doing good at what you do….and I must admit….it’s a lot. As for criticizing me for being a renter, I'm comfortable with it. I've had my opportunities to buy, but I've chosen to wait a little longer, and I'm glad I did. Although, I'm sure if my mommy and daddy left me with a bunch of houses and money, I could be a landlord too. Maybe you should write a book, Paris, I mean, Nowhere (I don't know why I keep making that mistake), on how to be rich by inheritance.

camping says

I’m sure if my mommy and daddy left me with a bunch of houses and money, I could be a landlord too. Maybe you should write a book, Paris, I mean, Nowhere (I don’t know why I keep making that mistake), on how to be rich by inheritance.

But hey, to be fair, Paris wrote a book. I know there are many ghost writers, but at least she knows how to earn money from book deals or getting popularity by posting her own sex tape online. She is not dumb and she knows how to make things work, without gloating about her inherited wealth or bragging about her non-existent balls or bank account in an internet forum.

The following numbers are from RealtyTrac. These are not total numbers, listed are only those homes where status changed in the first 11 days of September. County: Pre-Foreclosure / Auction / Bank-Owned Sacramento: 1020 / 972 / 350 San Joaquin: 512 / 634 / 277 Stanislaus: 414 / 473 / 314 Merced: 349 / 237 / 73 San Francisco: 92 / 74 / 58 San Mateo: 273 / 151 / 41 Santa Clara: 438 / 504 / 121 Alameda: 892 / 626 / 155 Contra Costa: 603 / 641 / 437

...a major drop in prices in a few months!

Not a chance in hell. Not if congress has anything to do about it, and they will.

Because the NAR is a major lobbyist, and full transparency isn't in their interest. The American public seem only too willing to be duped and charmed and led into hysteria, (look at the rope-a-dope going in the stock market right now), and you would have to be either honest or a fool not to exploit that. That's business. A better question is, Why would congress interfere in that? No, the government will keep gigging the interest rate, along with creating tax incentives for buyers and allowing for cheap FHA loans (my guess is that they will raise the loan amounts next year) in order to keep the fires stoked while the NAR, Toll Bros, et al, entreat the willing ignorant with copy like Pounce Before the Bounce. (Ahem.)

May not help house prices, but it may help with new re-fi business. There are quite a few loans coming up for a reset that are about $10k underwater. Those folks may be willing to cough up the $10k to re-fi to a loan at 4.XX%, especially when the reset is about to hit. The banks get to make new loans (with new fees), and are not worried about the loss of high interest from the old loans, as that paper was sold off long ago.

HeadSet says

May not help house prices, but it may help with new re-fi business. There are quite a few loans coming up for a reset that are about $10k underwater. Those folks may be willing to cough up the $10k to re-fi to a loan at 4.XX%, especially when the reset is about to hit. The banks get to make new loans (with new fees), and are not worried about the loss of high interest from the old loans, as that paper was sold off long ago.

But they are requiring that people actually qualify and prove that they are able to pay back the loan. For those loans hopelessly under water, rates don't matter. Yesterday a woman I know was saying that the loan on the house she & her husband bought will reset next year(she's bitter because they bought at the height of the bubble, got a teeny house and now there are nicer, larger homes for half of what she paid). She said that a loan counselor told them not to worry about the prevailing rates, they should be able to modify at 1-2% because the bank should be grateful they're still paying in the loan at all. They paid $1,500 up front for this help and advice... I should mention that they have no problem paying for the loan, even when it resets. They just so entitled that they shouldn't have to pay what they owe.

Any feedback? It would look like putting 20% down and committing to pay 480K for the next 30 years is fair. According to the 15 times yearly rent valuation (or P/E, price to earnings ratio =15), this property should be around: 468K. It's a brand new condo, 2 bedrooms, 1,287sq feet, $369 hoa fees

Yes, section 8 is in all areas but it is more dominate in relatively poor areas with relatively high rents. In these type of areas it definitely distorts (raises rents) much less so in other areas. In an odd way prop 13 is keeping property tax revenues from totally collapsing. By keeping assessed values detached from the market values of the last years many people (those who have owned property for many years) are still seeing their tax bills increase by the max allowed under prop 13 even though the market worth of their property has substantially decreased. This has somewhat softened the blow to government entities that rely on this revenue. Of course a fair part of the run up in values in CA can be contributed to prop 13.

As an independent it seems very slanted to me as well, but I try to focus on the housing bubble links Patrick leaves us each day – most of these contain excellent information. I applaud Patrick for his work on this, his site. While I often disagree with the crowd here, Patrick and his followers have the liberty and freedom to slant it in any direction they want to. This site has made me significantly more intelligent with regards to the housing situation here in America. Click where you want to click. There are violently argumentative trolls in the forums (as with most forums throughout the internet…and btw, thank you Al Gore for your invention). Take the comments and their authors for what they are worth and ignore most of them. 10 bucks says both you and I are going to get hosed by "Some Guy" for our respective comments.

Last time I checked the constitution and bill of rights are the underlying document for all Americans. So any true conservative, independent, Republican, Libertarian and other hard working, taxpaying, patriotic American defenders of the constitution must by definition defend the rights of the liberals, elitists, socialists, Democrats, whiners and the like to exist and be heard. Ironic isn't it? This is where the rushbots fail to grasp the principle. The words big liberal and government are not synonymies. You can have any combination you want. BTW I am a libertarian who doesn't own a tv.

Could you say the same about Sarbanes and Oxley legislation which passed rather quickly in 2003? It would be in every consumers interest, to write to their congress person to create similar legislation regarding RE buying.

Sarbanes Oxley was a nice bit o' policy in theory, but proved to be all but totally ineffectual when it came to real financial oversight/stricter bookkeeping. A non-threat, as it were. I think the present landscape reflects that rather well. Writing your congressman, meanwhile, is like sitting on someone's shoulders to get a better look at the moon. Quaint, but not too effective. Face it: We are disenfranchised, and that's how we'll stay!

If that's anywhere near the Wal-Mart then run, Forrest, run. If you don't believe us, go to that Wal-Mart on a Saturday afternoon. Those people will be your neighbors.

Some Guy, What is your net worth? The reason that I ask is that it is highly unlikely that someone that has any money to speak of would spend this much of their time and efforts in a housing bubble forum politicizing everything. It has been my experience has been folks like you can't even afford to buy a hybrid vehicle. A ball park number on that net worth would suffice. Are you married and do you have kids? I'm just curious if the passion you have politically has an effect of dampening your relationships or maybe you only show this side of you on this (and possibly other) forums? If you want to make a real difference to yourself and your country you would argue less and work harder. We can all use the increased tax base. Before you fire back with a "none of your business" or "you &%&$ing republican", I am simply trying to understand where you are coming from. I'm trying to put myself in your shoes.

Just for your information, there was a big protest in Washingotn DC on Saturday (9/12). Mostly ignored by the media.

Some Guy says

Get a fucking life.

That violates the only rule on the forum: be polite.

Bapman said:

#1) 20% down to buy a house and no bubble-crap made new homes in a new subdivision being rentals a bit more rare, and Section 8 requirements are so high that only nicer homes qualify for the program now. #2) Invader-hyperbreeders had not been given the greenlight with the liberal court block of Prop. 187 yet. The blocking of Prop 187 was the trigger for the invasion, and the freebees made things ripe for breeding at 15. #3) Intrest rates were 14% or so. #4) The colture was not as degenerate as now, so accepting welfare and having babies on the state wasnot en vouge. Intitlements were not so popular

As for number 1, That was true at different points the 80s, and 90's too, providing a counter example that disproves your argument. As for number 2, Please read the following books, The Grapes of Wrath, and Cannery Row too, if your felling froggy. These books depict a counter-example, to your point. No sense trying to say it better than Steinbeck. As for number 3, Please see my response to point number 1. And finally point 4, Please read the following: Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail '72. Better not try to outshine Hunter S. Thompson. You could also read Burroughs and some of the earlier Beat Poets, they describe a culture within America that is as degenerate as anything that has existed since. LOL, that reminds me. . . I read Junkie, when I was about 11, Holy Cow. . . Let me tell you, that book should be required reading for 11 year olds, as I can't think of a better way to educate kids about the Horrors of Drugs; Or at least scare them away.

Ramonp, You're far too generous. You can rent the following for $2,395/month on Craislist: "Bright & airy, very comfortable, 2000 sq ft, 3 bedroom 2 bath house with large back yard available for rent. The schools are West Valley Elementary (930 API score), Cupertino Middle (913 API score) & Homestead High School (846 API score). The house is located in Sunnyvale." (http://sfbay.craigslist.org/sby/apa/1371926184.html) (Search date 9/14/09.) Big assumption on my part: a 3 bed, 2 bath house probably built in the early 1960s is equivalent to a brand new 2 bed, 2 bath condo with $369 HOA dues. Hmmm...come to think of it...that rent value may be too high.

We will miss you, and good luck for your house hunting. :P

I apologize if I offended you Some Guy. I wish you the best of luck. I'm going to try to stay away from the forums myself for similar reasons. Patrick, my apologies to you as well for watering down the forums with my bizarre sense of humor and off-the-wall comments.

My fault. I thought people could be polite to each other without policing. Not true. You just have to delete the guys who are not polite. I've started, but it will probably take a while before they understand I mean it.

Yeah; you gotta delete them. Just keep doing it, to the people you agree with as well as those whom you do not. Ironically, that thread, which annoyed Some Guy, was the thread which I chose to come back in after a long time, I thought I had detected a more serious effort on Patrick's part to get rid of those people. Anyway, you lost one, and regained another. Although I doubt I'll be able to match Some Guys post count.

what about Marin? Its my understanding many of the homes in pre-forclosure and auction never make it to market due to loan modifications and all the voluntary moratoriums on foreclosures by the banks. THis coupled with low interest rates are keeping prices artificially high. It is still possible to buy a million dollar house if you can convince your parents to reverse mortgage their house to give you the 20% down payment needed to qualify for a jumbo loan. This is apparently how young families are able to come up with the money needed to buy homes in good school districts according to a mortgage broker I spoke with last week. I guess everyone in these areas makes at least 250k to pay the mortgage. I just dont get it.

"My fault. I thought people could be polite to each other without policing" Patrick : you sound a lot like greenspan after the bubble :-)

frodo says

Yeah; you gotta delete them. Just keep doing it, to the people you agree with as well as those whom you do not.

Five or six are now deleted, along with all their comments. I hope I remain pretty impartial about it. I'm going to add a "report as impolite" link. If many users report someone as impolite, they will automatically get blocked. You know what's weird? After I delete people, sometimes they seem to appreciate it, as if I'd done them a favor by showing them the line they crossed. Then they're pretty polite.

The old forum had a section for non-real estate discussions. This new format mixes everything together. I prefer keeping the posts seperate...somehow political agendas always get mixed in with the housing market discussions now, which can be interesting, but more often than not, very annoying. That seems to be happening on all my favorite forums whether it is related to parenting, real estate, fashion, travel or restaurants...many posters seem to be interjecting their political perspective into everything...or it may just be that I now live in the bay area and people here politicize everything anyway.

Good bye, some guy. But, hey Frodo! How's ya? Yes, this forum seems polarized (lib/conservative/dem/repub), but the housing problem, healthcare and such do have their political leanings. Obviously I have a problem with people who blame everything on illegal immigration, perhaps they should start their own forum about how badly they hate people who want to attain the same freedoms they enjoy. :)

samsmom says

what about Marin? Its my understanding many of the homes in pre-forclosure and auction never make it to market due to loan modifications and all the voluntary moratoriums on foreclosures by the banks. THis coupled with low interest rates are keeping prices artificially high. It is still possible to buy a million dollar house if you can convince your parents to reverse mortgage their house to give you the 20% down payment needed to qualify for a jumbo loan. This is apparently how young families are able to come up with the money needed to buy homes in good school districts according to a mortgage broker I spoke with last week. I guess everyone in these areas makes at least 250k to pay the mortgage. I just dont get it.

County: Marin Pre-Foreclosure / Auction / Bank-Owned 174 / 97 / 46 (July 2009) 191 / 89 / 29 (August 2009) 51 / 46 / 17 (Sept 1 - 14)

I'm doing good Ellie! I tried to participate in the Google Android Developer contest, but only had three weeks to do it in. . . and didn't finish it. But it was fun, and I am well on my way to a working Android Application, maybe when I finish it someone will hire me. How the heck are you? Have you recently tried to match wits and words with Mikey? As for the request for better segmenting of topics, I can see the value in leaving the current situation as it is . . . but would expect it to change in the future. Oh, and big cheers for Polite Discourse! May it thrive here, and serve as an example.

its not just this website. I've noticed in on the other (non-political) forums I read regularly. The hateful extremist wackos seems to be everywhere and voicing their opinions loudly and viciously attacking anyone who questions them. I consider myself a moderate conservative, but I see a big swing towards a fear & hate fueled political platform, and the sheeple are eating it up.

Recently read an interesting article http://www.housingnewslive.com/us-housing-news-articles.php

frodo says

I’m doing good Ellie! I tried to participate in the Google Android Developer contest, but only had three weeks to do it in. . . and didn’t finish it. But it was fun, and I am well on my way to a working Android Application, maybe when I finish it someone will hire me. No "funemployment" for you? How the heck are you? Have you recently tried to match wits and words with Mikey? Yes. Please check out the misc forum, where I've successfully shown that I'm woefully inadequate trading puns with the Master. But I still try, and fail. Sometimes I hurt my brain in the process. As for the request for better segmenting of topics, I can see the value in leaving the current situation as it is . . . but would expect it to change in the future. Oh, and big cheers for Polite Discourse! May it thrive here, and serve as an example.

Hip hip, hooray!

For the HTML impared: FORECLOSED PROPERTIES: Hidden costs ambush buyers Investors in foreclosed properties billed for former owners' fees, fines Sep. 14, 2009 Michael Evans bought the bank-owned fourplex near Monroe Avenue and H Street at an auction without seeing it first. The condition of the property might have scared off other investors, but he has been rehabbing and renting out property for a long time. Broken, boarded-up windows? No problem. Stripped plumbing and stolen air conditioners? You expect that. Holes in the walls? Ho-hum. Feces in the bathtub and dirty mattresses left by squatters? Goes with the territory. Then he ran into something new. "I thought everything was great until the letter came in the mail," Evans said. The letter, from the city of Las Vegas, informed him that a previous, neglectful owner had racked up more than $60,000 in fees and fines because the city had to hire someone to board up the building and pick up trash. Those charges stay with the property, meaning Evans was potentially on the hook for a bill that was far more than the property's $37,500 auction price. So far, two cases like this have made it before the City Council. More are expected because of the number of foreclosed and abandoned properties being snapped up by investors who might be receiving clean titles to places that shouldn't have clean titles. It could be partially the buyer's fault if he or she isn't checking the property's history in the Clark County recorder's office, said Devin Smith, neighborhood response manager for the city. "I probably get a phone call a day from someone who bought a property, and now they want their fees waived," he said. "People are just showing up, they're buying properties and then they're saying, 'I didn't know about this.'" But some people, like Evans, are telling the city they were given a clear title, though title to the property should have been "clouded" by city notices that work was done on the property. Mayor Oscar Goodman recently sent a letter to title companies urging them to be vigilant about the issue and warning about potential legal liability. "I feel sorry for these folks who are sort of being middled here," Goodman said. "But they certainly, in my opinion -- and that's the reason I wrote the letter -- have a potential cause of action. "The title policy should pick up any kind of liens or any kind of notice that's properly recorded against the property." Title companies research the ownership history of a property and check for liens and judgments that might be encumbering the property. When the city gets a report about a blight, it hires a contractor to bring the property up to basic standards. Broken windows are boarded up, open doors are secured or blocked, unsanitary pools are drained, weeds and trash are cleared away. In extreme cases, buildings are simply demolished. The city incurs "hard costs" for that work, usually a few thousand dollars. Since the foreclosure crisis deepened and abandoned properties proliferated, the City Council has started imposing civil fines of up to $500 a day in an effort to scare owners into maintaining properties rather than face tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars in fines. In the two cases heard before the counci -- Evans' property and one on Stacey Avenue near Lake Mead and Decatur -- the new owners bought the properties after the work had been done but before the council met to establish the fines. In each case, the council left the "hard costs" in place as a lien against the property, which must be paid if the property is sold. For Evans, those amounted to $2,416. The large civil fines were waived. That's the approach the council most likely will take with future cases, Smith said. "The council wants to know what you're going to do to bring the property up to standard," he said. "I don't think they're going to waive the hard costs." Evans said he understood that, though he doesn't agree that the approach is fair because he is not the one who neglected the property. It allows him to proceed with the renovation of his four units in a part of town that has seen hard times and needs investment. "By the 25th, it'll look good. If you didn't care about the neighborhood, you would say, 'Yeah. I can live here,'" Evans said. "You've got to start somewhere. Somebody's got to do something nice and hope that people appreciate it."