patrick.net

homeowner_for ever_san jose says

F(xyz) = k*x*y*z where K is a contant

Another non-sense. I repeat: If you think your calculation makes sense, how about show a single source where they calculated this way?

its common sense dude...wake up...thats why most people on this forum are not crying like you. They are mature enough to undertand what i am trying to convey..we are not splitting hair here do we ? I think you should work on improving your right brain functionality. BTW right brain helps in holistic big picture approach to problems. you seriously have very low IQ ...tell us honestly : what was your GPA ? did you complete school ?

homeowner_for ever_san jose says

BTW, I have a masters degree in maths

This one takes the cake. Hilarious. Master degree in math from where? Planet Jupiter? Was it master in math or meth? May be you should add "Master in Math Meth" with your login name here. Or may be you should scan your degree certificate and put it as as your avatar image. Because from your calculations your math skill is not obvious.

homeowner_for ever_san jose says

They are mature enough to undertand what i am trying to convey

Silence is not a validation of your absurd calculation. First lack of math skill. And now logical fallacy. What's next?

1) doesn't understand that inflation helps house prices. 2) makes an absurd claim that housing is only related to median income ( gave a link to newyork times) - sheep mentality..cannot question published sources. was proven an idiot when i showed that interest rates were high in 1979 and need to be factored in for the low price to median income ratio. 3) is claiming that house price affordability is additive function of interest rate , median income and population growth. even a high school grad will laugh at it. 4)always looking for some other source of calculation.will believe that horse shit is gold if somebody has a published paper in reputed journal ( no independent thinking) here is the absurd quote from this guy "New York Times median income vs median home price chart 1979: Median home price to median income ratio = 4 2009: same ratio = 6.6 In last 30 years this ratio never been above 6 until 2002 (not even in 1989-1991 bubble). "

homeowner_for ever_san jose says

here is the absurd quote from this guy “New York Times median income vs median home price chart 1979: Median home price to median income ratio = 4 2009: same ratio = 6.6 In last 30 years this ratio never been above 6 until 2002 (not even in 1989-1991 bubble). “

That's called OBSERVATION and observation is valid (if not, tell us where the observation is "absurd"). Not a calculation. :)

homeowner_for ever_san jose says

1) doesn’t understand that inflation helps housing. 2) makes an absurd claim that housing is only related to median income ( gave a link to newyork times) - sheep mentality..cannot question published sources. was proven an idiot when i showed that interest rates were high in 1979 and need to be factored in for the low price to median income ratio. 3) is claiming that house price affordability is additive function of interest rate , median income and population growth. even a high school grad will laugh at it. 4)always looking for some other source of calculation.will believe that horse shit is gold if somebody has a published paper in reputed journal ( no idependent thinking)

:) I am taking above statements as your opinions. Not facts.

Here's a fun fact: 90% of people think they are above-average intelligence. Keep this in mind when you call someone stupid.

youngniceeyes says

Ditto, to what Tude said. I am waiting for the economic collapse to happen when China will stop giving the US money. We will really hit a high unemployment rate then. At that point, houses will sell for next to nothing, only a matter of time. On top of that, I heard that China is buying 93 billion worth of gold. Most Americans turn a blind eye to what China is thinking and doing but the shit will hit the fan in a few years, maybe even sooner. I can’t believe China hasn’t pulled the plug yet because the US is a deadbeat nation that doesn’t pay its bills.

If China completely stopped buying US federal debt, two things would happen: 1. The interest rate on new debt would go up slightly (remember folks, China is the largest foreign government owner of US debt, but it's also only 5% of our total debt. The post office owns more federal debt than China does). 2. China's export economy would collapse as they would no longer have anything to do with all those dollars. How is the US a deadbeat nation that doesn't pay its bills? Can you show me when the US has ever defaulted on its debt? I can show you how virtually every other wealthy country has.

knewbetter says

90% of people think they are above-average intelligence. Keep this in mind when you call someone stupid.

But at least one person here has masters in math. :)

Nowhere, you really should re-read your posts before you hit submit. They make no sense.

P2D2 says

knewbetter says

90% of people think they are above-average intelligence. Keep this in mind when you call someone stupid.

But at least one person here has masters in math. Actually, it is a masters in maths (plural), both old and new math, depending on which better serves an argument.

If this makes sense to you, Paris, I mean Nowhere, then we must speak a different language: Nowhere said: Now if you ever have kids, and I hope not for their sake, you would probably care about them and consider them if you, god forbid, leave this world….that means you’re dead CheeseWhiz. Now, I have taken all my family assets and my own and DOUBLED them. That means your probably doing good at what you do….and I must admit….it’s a lot. As for criticizing me for being a renter, I'm comfortable with it. I've had my opportunities to buy, but I've chosen to wait a little longer, and I'm glad I did. Although, I'm sure if my mommy and daddy left me with a bunch of houses and money, I could be a landlord too. Maybe you should write a book, Paris, I mean, Nowhere (I don't know why I keep making that mistake), on how to be rich by inheritance.

camping says

I’m sure if my mommy and daddy left me with a bunch of houses and money, I could be a landlord too. Maybe you should write a book, Paris, I mean, Nowhere (I don’t know why I keep making that mistake), on how to be rich by inheritance.

But hey, to be fair, Paris wrote a book. I know there are many ghost writers, but at least she knows how to earn money from book deals or getting popularity by posting her own sex tape online. She is not dumb and she knows how to make things work, without gloating about her inherited wealth or bragging about her non-existent balls or bank account in an internet forum.

The following numbers are from RealtyTrac. These are not total numbers, listed are only those homes where status changed in the first 11 days of September. County: Pre-Foreclosure / Auction / Bank-Owned Sacramento: 1020 / 972 / 350 San Joaquin: 512 / 634 / 277 Stanislaus: 414 / 473 / 314 Merced: 349 / 237 / 73 San Francisco: 92 / 74 / 58 San Mateo: 273 / 151 / 41 Santa Clara: 438 / 504 / 121 Alameda: 892 / 626 / 155 Contra Costa: 603 / 641 / 437

...a major drop in prices in a few months!

Not a chance in hell. Not if congress has anything to do about it, and they will.

Because the NAR is a major lobbyist, and full transparency isn't in their interest. The American public seem only too willing to be duped and charmed and led into hysteria, (look at the rope-a-dope going in the stock market right now), and you would have to be either honest or a fool not to exploit that. That's business. A better question is, Why would congress interfere in that? No, the government will keep gigging the interest rate, along with creating tax incentives for buyers and allowing for cheap FHA loans (my guess is that they will raise the loan amounts next year) in order to keep the fires stoked while the NAR, Toll Bros, et al, entreat the willing ignorant with copy like Pounce Before the Bounce. (Ahem.)

May not help house prices, but it may help with new re-fi business. There are quite a few loans coming up for a reset that are about $10k underwater. Those folks may be willing to cough up the $10k to re-fi to a loan at 4.XX%, especially when the reset is about to hit. The banks get to make new loans (with new fees), and are not worried about the loss of high interest from the old loans, as that paper was sold off long ago.

HeadSet says

May not help house prices, but it may help with new re-fi business. There are quite a few loans coming up for a reset that are about $10k underwater. Those folks may be willing to cough up the $10k to re-fi to a loan at 4.XX%, especially when the reset is about to hit. The banks get to make new loans (with new fees), and are not worried about the loss of high interest from the old loans, as that paper was sold off long ago.

But they are requiring that people actually qualify and prove that they are able to pay back the loan. For those loans hopelessly under water, rates don't matter. Yesterday a woman I know was saying that the loan on the house she & her husband bought will reset next year(she's bitter because they bought at the height of the bubble, got a teeny house and now there are nicer, larger homes for half of what she paid). She said that a loan counselor told them not to worry about the prevailing rates, they should be able to modify at 1-2% because the bank should be grateful they're still paying in the loan at all. They paid $1,500 up front for this help and advice... I should mention that they have no problem paying for the loan, even when it resets. They just so entitled that they shouldn't have to pay what they owe.

Any feedback? It would look like putting 20% down and committing to pay 480K for the next 30 years is fair. According to the 15 times yearly rent valuation (or P/E, price to earnings ratio =15), this property should be around: 468K. It's a brand new condo, 2 bedrooms, 1,287sq feet, $369 hoa fees

Yes, section 8 is in all areas but it is more dominate in relatively poor areas with relatively high rents. In these type of areas it definitely distorts (raises rents) much less so in other areas. In an odd way prop 13 is keeping property tax revenues from totally collapsing. By keeping assessed values detached from the market values of the last years many people (those who have owned property for many years) are still seeing their tax bills increase by the max allowed under prop 13 even though the market worth of their property has substantially decreased. This has somewhat softened the blow to government entities that rely on this revenue. Of course a fair part of the run up in values in CA can be contributed to prop 13.

As an independent it seems very slanted to me as well, but I try to focus on the housing bubble links Patrick leaves us each day – most of these contain excellent information. I applaud Patrick for his work on this, his site. While I often disagree with the crowd here, Patrick and his followers have the liberty and freedom to slant it in any direction they want to. This site has made me significantly more intelligent with regards to the housing situation here in America. Click where you want to click. There are violently argumentative trolls in the forums (as with most forums throughout the internet…and btw, thank you Al Gore for your invention). Take the comments and their authors for what they are worth and ignore most of them. 10 bucks says both you and I are going to get hosed by "Some Guy" for our respective comments.

Last time I checked the constitution and bill of rights are the underlying document for all Americans. So any true conservative, independent, Republican, Libertarian and other hard working, taxpaying, patriotic American defenders of the constitution must by definition defend the rights of the liberals, elitists, socialists, Democrats, whiners and the like to exist and be heard. Ironic isn't it? This is where the rushbots fail to grasp the principle. The words big liberal and government are not synonymies. You can have any combination you want. BTW I am a libertarian who doesn't own a tv.

Could you say the same about Sarbanes and Oxley legislation which passed rather quickly in 2003? It would be in every consumers interest, to write to their congress person to create similar legislation regarding RE buying.

Sarbanes Oxley was a nice bit o' policy in theory, but proved to be all but totally ineffectual when it came to real financial oversight/stricter bookkeeping. A non-threat, as it were. I think the present landscape reflects that rather well. Writing your congressman, meanwhile, is like sitting on someone's shoulders to get a better look at the moon. Quaint, but not too effective. Face it: We are disenfranchised, and that's how we'll stay!

If that's anywhere near the Wal-Mart then run, Forrest, run. If you don't believe us, go to that Wal-Mart on a Saturday afternoon. Those people will be your neighbors.

Some Guy, What is your net worth? The reason that I ask is that it is highly unlikely that someone that has any money to speak of would spend this much of their time and efforts in a housing bubble forum politicizing everything. It has been my experience has been folks like you can't even afford to buy a hybrid vehicle. A ball park number on that net worth would suffice. Are you married and do you have kids? I'm just curious if the passion you have politically has an effect of dampening your relationships or maybe you only show this side of you on this (and possibly other) forums? If you want to make a real difference to yourself and your country you would argue less and work harder. We can all use the increased tax base. Before you fire back with a "none of your business" or "you &%&$ing republican", I am simply trying to understand where you are coming from. I'm trying to put myself in your shoes.

Just for your information, there was a big protest in Washingotn DC on Saturday (9/12). Mostly ignored by the media.

Some Guy says

Get a fucking life.

That violates the only rule on the forum: be polite.

Bapman said:

#1) 20% down to buy a house and no bubble-crap made new homes in a new subdivision being rentals a bit more rare, and Section 8 requirements are so high that only nicer homes qualify for the program now. #2) Invader-hyperbreeders had not been given the greenlight with the liberal court block of Prop. 187 yet. The blocking of Prop 187 was the trigger for the invasion, and the freebees made things ripe for breeding at 15. #3) Intrest rates were 14% or so. #4) The colture was not as degenerate as now, so accepting welfare and having babies on the state wasnot en vouge. Intitlements were not so popular

As for number 1, That was true at different points the 80s, and 90's too, providing a counter example that disproves your argument. As for number 2, Please read the following books, The Grapes of Wrath, and Cannery Row too, if your felling froggy. These books depict a counter-example, to your point. No sense trying to say it better than Steinbeck. As for number 3, Please see my response to point number 1. And finally point 4, Please read the following: Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail '72. Better not try to outshine Hunter S. Thompson. You could also read Burroughs and some of the earlier Beat Poets, they describe a culture within America that is as degenerate as anything that has existed since. LOL, that reminds me. . . I read Junkie, when I was about 11, Holy Cow. . . Let me tell you, that book should be required reading for 11 year olds, as I can't think of a better way to educate kids about the Horrors of Drugs; Or at least scare them away.

Ramonp, You're far too generous. You can rent the following for $2,395/month on Craislist: "Bright & airy, very comfortable, 2000 sq ft, 3 bedroom 2 bath house with large back yard available for rent. The schools are West Valley Elementary (930 API score), Cupertino Middle (913 API score) & Homestead High School (846 API score). The house is located in Sunnyvale." (http://sfbay.craigslist.org/sby/apa/1371926184.html) (Search date 9/14/09.) Big assumption on my part: a 3 bed, 2 bath house probably built in the early 1960s is equivalent to a brand new 2 bed, 2 bath condo with $369 HOA dues. Hmmm...come to think of it...that rent value may be too high.

We will miss you, and good luck for your house hunting. :P

I apologize if I offended you Some Guy. I wish you the best of luck. I'm going to try to stay away from the forums myself for similar reasons. Patrick, my apologies to you as well for watering down the forums with my bizarre sense of humor and off-the-wall comments.

My fault. I thought people could be polite to each other without policing. Not true. You just have to delete the guys who are not polite. I've started, but it will probably take a while before they understand I mean it.

Yeah; you gotta delete them. Just keep doing it, to the people you agree with as well as those whom you do not. Ironically, that thread, which annoyed Some Guy, was the thread which I chose to come back in after a long time, I thought I had detected a more serious effort on Patrick's part to get rid of those people. Anyway, you lost one, and regained another. Although I doubt I'll be able to match Some Guys post count.

what about Marin? Its my understanding many of the homes in pre-forclosure and auction never make it to market due to loan modifications and all the voluntary moratoriums on foreclosures by the banks. THis coupled with low interest rates are keeping prices artificially high. It is still possible to buy a million dollar house if you can convince your parents to reverse mortgage their house to give you the 20% down payment needed to qualify for a jumbo loan. This is apparently how young families are able to come up with the money needed to buy homes in good school districts according to a mortgage broker I spoke with last week. I guess everyone in these areas makes at least 250k to pay the mortgage. I just dont get it.

"My fault. I thought people could be polite to each other without policing" Patrick : you sound a lot like greenspan after the bubble :-)

frodo says

Yeah; you gotta delete them. Just keep doing it, to the people you agree with as well as those whom you do not.

Five or six are now deleted, along with all their comments. I hope I remain pretty impartial about it. I'm going to add a "report as impolite" link. If many users report someone as impolite, they will automatically get blocked. You know what's weird? After I delete people, sometimes they seem to appreciate it, as if I'd done them a favor by showing them the line they crossed. Then they're pretty polite.

The old forum had a section for non-real estate discussions. This new format mixes everything together. I prefer keeping the posts seperate...somehow political agendas always get mixed in with the housing market discussions now, which can be interesting, but more often than not, very annoying. That seems to be happening on all my favorite forums whether it is related to parenting, real estate, fashion, travel or restaurants...many posters seem to be interjecting their political perspective into everything...or it may just be that I now live in the bay area and people here politicize everything anyway.

Good bye, some guy. But, hey Frodo! How's ya? Yes, this forum seems polarized (lib/conservative/dem/repub), but the housing problem, healthcare and such do have their political leanings. Obviously I have a problem with people who blame everything on illegal immigration, perhaps they should start their own forum about how badly they hate people who want to attain the same freedoms they enjoy. :)

samsmom says

what about Marin? Its my understanding many of the homes in pre-forclosure and auction never make it to market due to loan modifications and all the voluntary moratoriums on foreclosures by the banks. THis coupled with low interest rates are keeping prices artificially high. It is still possible to buy a million dollar house if you can convince your parents to reverse mortgage their house to give you the 20% down payment needed to qualify for a jumbo loan. This is apparently how young families are able to come up with the money needed to buy homes in good school districts according to a mortgage broker I spoke with last week. I guess everyone in these areas makes at least 250k to pay the mortgage. I just dont get it.

County: Marin Pre-Foreclosure / Auction / Bank-Owned 174 / 97 / 46 (July 2009) 191 / 89 / 29 (August 2009) 51 / 46 / 17 (Sept 1 - 14)