patrick.net

I left California and sold my overpriced house in Long Beach Summer of 07 for $695K. I bought the same size house in Wisconsin for $155K. But even now, I am starting to get that worried feeling again, that I may still lose. Nothing is selling around here even thought house prices and rents are a wash. As CCR sings, I see a bad moon rising. don thelittleguylobby.org Gotham, WI

Think of the upside for having "nowhere's" faith: Knowing that house prices will rise, one could buy up (using OPM, naturally) all the real estate one could afford. Big payday in that future. Could also co-sign mortgage loans, with the idea of sharing in the profit when sold. No risk!

Now that the Beatles are in the news, I can't resist: He's a Real Nowhere Man Pushing Out His Nowhere Plan Sounding Like a Realtor's Scam Fooling Nobody Has a Realtor's point of View Forgets Who He's Talking To Isn't he a bit like Bern-na-kee

Analagous to "big penis" braggers, the ones with an actual pot to piss in don't feel a need to waste their time gloating.

I read this blog almost everyday, 2 years now. To day I registered so that folks don't have to read the comment from cashmonger because of It's language. Lot of folks come to this forum. Lets keep them coming back! No offense, this site needs some type of validation before posting comments.

Dizzy, I apologize if the word penis offends you - it was simply an attempt at humor and in my mind the analogy works. Honestly, who really has it in them to drop into a forum each evening with perpetually clinched cheeks? Oh wait, there goes another questionable reference... With a smile on my face here, I'd suggest lightening up a bit. In the meantime I'll try to find other ways to lighten the mood.

There is a basic moderation filter, but I kept cutting it back because too many things were getting into moderation. But maybe I should make it a bit more restrictive. Please email me words that you think should cause a comment to get into moderation. Another approach is to automatically replace them with an inoffensive word. Could do that too.

nowhere but up from here says

Wait…wait…..WAIT!!!! Have I EVER argued over what got us here, what’s right and wrong with the system, morality…..your parents should have taught you better…..NO. I’m not siding with the government, banks, society as it is. I’m not advocating Blue or Red, God or not. What I am saying is… (A) I’ve made a lot of money in the stock market….good, bad or otherwise. (B) I sold one home in two weeks for 50K over asking…..signed, sealed and delivered. (C) All my rentals are full, paying exactly what I have always asked for them, and are usually rented before the prior occupants leave. What the HELL do you want me to tell you….that’s just what is going on. Right/Wrong or otherwise…and BTW….there are a dozen buyers for every home that comes up in the AREA….I can’t explain it…where did all the credit and money come from. Bubble….sure, America screwed…sure. I’m sorry the world isn’t spinning they way you guys want……but maybe it never did. Some people work hard, take calculated risks and WIN…..part of being an AMERICAN in my book. The rest……all whining and chickenshit. End of Statement

It would help us understand your point better if you could tell two things: Where is the house you sold (zip code)? Was the asking price comparable to what other houses were selling for? Did you put a lower asking price to get more people interested? It is impossible to relate your claim to what market is doing if we have to use too many assumptions. The best case scenario would be to give us the actual address so people can verify your claim.

nowhere but up from here says

Wait…wait…..WAIT!!!! Have I EVER argued over what got us here, what’s right and wrong with the system, morality…..your parents should have taught you better…..NO. I’m not siding with the government, banks, society as it is. I’m not advocating Blue or Red, God or not. What I am saying is… (A) I’ve made a lot of money in the stock market….good, bad or otherwise. (B) I sold one home in two weeks for 50K over asking…..signed, sealed and delivered. (C) All my rentals are full, paying exactly what I have always asked for them, and are usually rented before the prior occupants leave. What the HELL do you want me to tell you….that’s just what is going on. Right/Wrong or otherwise…and BTW….there are a dozen buyers for every home that comes up in the AREA….I can’t explain it…where did all the credit and money come from. Bubble….sure, America screwed…sure. I’m sorry the world isn’t spinning they way you guys want……but maybe it never did. Some people work hard, take calculated risks and WIN…..part of being an AMERICAN in my book. The rest……all whining and chickenshit. End of Statement

What are you looking for Nowhere? You keep posting how you are great, brilliant, rich, pretty much the best investor ever. We get it. What is your point? Bring information to the table. You keep saying you sold a house for $50k over asking. That in itself means nothing. If you are in an area where homes sell for $500k right now (previously selling for $700k) and you list it for $450k and get your $500k, then you didn't do anything special. I could list one of my properties tomorrow and get several hundred $K over asking if my asking is $1.

camping says

You keep posting how you are great, brilliant, rich, pretty much the best investor ever. We get it. What is your point? Bring information to the table.

Actually if he is so eager to tell his success story, including bank account, he should publish his zipcode here and price range of his real estate investments, so that we can verify it.

facts are facts..just because we think otherwise doesn't change anything. even though i am not fully in agreement with nowhere_to_go_but_up, i support his observation that there is lot of demand at the lower end housing by investors. there are places where rents are more than 30 years fixed mortgages + expenses, when was the last time these kind of oppurtunities came by ? ( i am sounding like a radio commercial !) ...i seriously think that +ve cash flow oppurtunities are very hard to find in general...no wonder investors are snapping the +ve cash flow homes fast. In bay area, its a different ball game in most areas. We might be debating here for a perfect world but real world is diffferent. In a perfect world, the govt will not prop up prices by buying treasury bonds and lowering interest rates and we won't have prop8. we won't have real estate agents and NAR filing the media up lies and we won't have govt subsidizing bank loans by giving tax break on interest ! But in real world, we live in a democracy with lot of factors playing in. Housing cannot go low too fast because its too painful for the masses. They would prefer a propped up housing than go through the correction and thier voices ( majority) win in a democracy by design.The average IQ of a common man does not give enough reasoning power for the average joe to comprehend the long term problem with the debt's that we are taking on ( propping homes). Given the fact that govt ( voice of majority) will not allow the housing market to collapse..and that govt will keep the housing up ( low interest rate), will you accept the real facts and do your calculation OR would you keep strolling in your perfect imaginary world and keep waiting for something which won't happen ?

Cash flows get crimped due to delinquencies, property values and foreclosures causing the global economy to limp through difficult times. Financing of properties is going through a huge restructuring process and the pricing should readjust to the new trends affordable by people. This transition is causing a lot of industries and job sectors to be totally wiped out. Due to various disconnects in the industrial chain, job markets in various segments are drown, property owners are sunk in debts and lenders are skeptical to lend and bail out people from the difficult situation. The income to afford to repay loans is declining highly. Only when the restructuring gets stable and the pricing reconciles and reaches an acceptable and affordable level, the industry is expected to recover. With the housing market in great trouble, moderately-priced apartments have become the core buy. Lenders must force the troubled owners to become good sellers. Government intervention introducing systematic overhaul measures to reduce foreclosures can also help recover the situation. With the current situation, stringent lending practises and the weak economic situation is continuing the drain the buyers from affording to buy their own homes. Hence, the housing condition is at a risk where quick fix may not be easily expected. This is a great opportunity for cash-rich buyers who are the main beneficiaries of this financial crisis. They can take advantage of the weak dollar value and buy properties in busy cities and centrally located areas. Read More: http://www.housingnewslive.com

There are two types of smart people. unfortunately , too much unnatural study makes a lot of smart people disconnected from reality and base thier modelling of world on too many imaginary concepts ignoring the hard evidence. Anytime, your theory is invalidated by real evidence ( or common sense), you should trust the real evidence and check your theory. Common sense was thrown out of the window when housing was going up like crazy and derivatives became the order of the day. Now common sense is again thrown out when homes are so cheap in some areas. People will always come up with wierd explanations. US is already in deep shit and we have seen the bottom, if you can get a +ve cash flow house today , i bet it will be +ve 10 years later as well. BTW, i am not talking about abnormal places ( like flint, michigan) here. Street smart : smart people who start there thinking process based on a real world. Academically smart : smart people and think based on an imaginary world. guess who wins in the real world ?

Crap! I could be a real estate investor too if I could start with 13 PAID OFF houses. Sign me up for that deal. nowhere, I would not like the point of view of most on this website if I owned as many homes as you either. Reality can be a bitch. The OP was correct.... prices are ridiculously insane right now. No sense at all. Anything at the lowest end of pricing has 20 offers on it before you could even ask for a showing. Is this the bottom? Economics say 'no' but the sentiment of the Bay Area home buyers is saying 'yes' at the low end of the market. The prices are still to expensive for first time buyers that don't have inheritance or parents to support them. Hence the VERY obvious frustration from alot of the posters. Where are they getting money to buy these homes? Maybe there are a bunch of 'investors' that got mommy and daddy's houses to play with? When will they all go away so I can by my first home without stretching my income to the max to make it work... ?

prices around here went up 300%… raw materials and labor DID NOT! we certainly have seen people from the east cost move to California. BTW, using the same logic rents should also move up in tandem with raw material and labor. There are only three factors for housing : (inverse) long term interest rates, ( direct ) wages and ( direct) population growth. If you can graph these three in bay area , we can see if it makes sense. unfortunately , i don't have the data. To get a feel for wages and population growth, we can look at rents. so it rents times inverse of 30 years fixed mortgage has gone up 300% in the time you are mentioning then home price appreciation in the same % makes sense.

I always take advice on how to live my life from people who were handed everything they own at birth.

nowhere but up from here says

Oh brother……would you also like birthdate, social security number, blood type and sperm count?

If you think that above information (especially your sperm count) is relevant to your success story, you are welcome to provide. But I don't think they are relevant. I asked only whatever is relevant. nowhere but up from here says

I also posted houses in this area below, at, and above asking prices sold….which was thoroughly brought up by my “friends” here

Purely anecdotal. nowhere but up from here says

My grandparents left my parents 6 homes. My parents bought 7 of their own and left me 13. I started at age 24 and bought 5 BEFORE ‘02. No fancy mortgages or tricks.

Again, how is above information is relevant the topic of this thread? Damn! No fancy mortgage! No purchase after 2002? Talk about "sperm count"!!! :) So when you say "nowhere but up from here", does that mean that it is from 2002? Or 2009?

Tude says

I always take advice on how to live my life from people who were handed everything they own at birth.

You mean people like Paris Hilton and the guy who inherited 13 properties?

homeowner_for ever_san jose says

If you can graph these three in bay area , we can see if it makes sense. unfortunately , i don’t have the data. To get a feel for wages and population growth, we can look at rents.

The population growth in Santa Clara County in last ten years is nothing unusual. In fact growth is slowing compare to previous two decades. http://www.sccgov.org/portal/site/planning/print?contentId=574a9d4bf9d74010VgnVCMP2200049dc4a92____

Between 1980 and 1990, Santa Clara County grew by 202,506 people. This growth represents a 16% increase in population. Similarly, between 1990 and 2000, the county grew by an additional 185,008, which accounts for a 12% change in population. It is predicted that the county's population will continue to grow, but at a slower rate. Moderate rates of growth in employment and housing development may account for this slow down in population growth. According to the Association of Bay Area Governments, by 2010, Santa Clara County's population is projected to increase by 197,115 people to 1,879,700. From 2010 to 2020, Santa Clara County's population is predicted to increase an additional 127,800 people to 2,007,500.

Median household income increased slightly ($74K in 1999 and $84K in 2007). http://www.city-data.com/county/Santa_Clara_County-CA.html

homeowner_for ever_san jose says

so it rents times inverse of 30 years fixed mortgage has gone up 300% in the time you are mentioning then home price appreciation in the same % makes sense.

Not sure what your point is. The rent definitely did not go up 300% in last ten years in Silicon Valley.

so , the median income increase = 84-74/74 *100 = 13.5 % population = approx = 10% ( population) interest rate = long term interest rate in 1999 / long term interest rate in 2008 = 8-5/5 *100 = 60% Total = 83.5% since 1999 looks like most of the gain is due to interest rates !! surprise surprise :-) i think 1999 is not the right year to pick as there was too much stuff going on ( stock bubble..etc) i'll re do the math for 1980 to 2009 ...when i have some time.. i left out inflation as a bonus to housing pessimists ! BTW, inflation increases housing prices.

P2D2 says

Not sure what your point is. The rent definitely did not go up 300% in last ten years in Silicon Valley.

Rents were flat but long term interest rate went down significantly which affects affordability. unfortunately most americans only ask one question : can i afford this home ( which means just monthly payment) ? i used to get suprised when car salesmen used to ONLY ask me how much monthly payment am i looking at ? I used to ask them to shut the f**k up and tell me the final price so that i can negotiate the final price and then work back words. One sales man told me that he was in the habit of asking monthly payments because thats what most guys worried about. unless people start looking at final price of an asset than monthly payment , We all will be debt slaves ...reality is that it will never happen because the masses are stupid ! so suck it up and make your calculations accordingly.

homeowner_for ever_san jose says

so , the median income increase = 84-74/74 *100 = 13.5 % population = approx = 10% ( population) interest rate = long term interest rate in 1999 / long term interest rate in 2008 = 8-5/5 *100 = 60% Total = 83.5% since 1999 looks like most of the gain is due to interest rates !! surprise surprise :-)

What the hell is this? Some multiplications and divisions? Please tell us how it makes sense. Are you serious or just playing with some numbers? Couple things to note. You did not take inflation into account. Your "Total" calculation 83.5% is just bogus.

homeowner_for ever_san jose says

so suck it up and make your calculations accordingly.

You mean the kind of calculation you posted above, right?

P2D2 says

homeowner_for ever_san jose says

so suck it up and make your calculations accordingly.

You mean the kind of calculation you posted above, right?

the sad truth that home prices will be inversely proportional to interest rates. and the fACT THAT GOVT will do everything to keep interest rates low (on popular demand )

homeowner_for ever_san jose says

the sad truth that home prices will be inversely proportional to interest rates. and the fACT THAT GOVT will do everything to keep interest rates low (on popular demand )

Are you trying to say that the interest rate in last three years so high that it caused housing bubble to burst? You are overestimating government.

nowhere but up from here says

You guys are hilarious….P2D2 says

camping says

You keep posting how you are great, brilliant, rich, pretty much the best investor ever. We get it. What is your point? Bring information to the table.

Actually if he is so eager to tell his success story, including bank account, he should publish his zipcode here and price range of his real estate investments, so that we can verify it.

Oh brother……would you also like birthdate, social security number, blood type and sperm count? On the other hand…. 94523….zip address for home…I also posted houses in this area below, at, and above asking prices sold….which was thoroughly brought up by my “friends” here I already stated that we asked “under” typical home values here and was bid up very quickly….. I trade both individual stocks…Apple, Morgan Stanley etc, ETF’s, and some bond instruments…btw, amazingly the 10yr and 30yr auction were pretty good in my opinion I’m not giving specific personal information….I would not expect the same from you either My grandparents left my parents 6 homes. My parents bought 7 of their own and left me 13. I started at age 24 and bought 5 BEFORE ‘02. No fancy mortgages or tricks. Just money down, put somebody in there and get another one when you have the money for it. All homes inherited are owned outright, I own 2 others outright, mortgage the one I’m in and sold the other that had and outstanding mortgage of 175k, it sold for 395k…IN THIS MARKET. Though none of this is good enough I know….it is all your getting. Thanks for asking.

Thanks for posting the information. If I need advice on how to inherit wealth, now I know who to ask.

have you heard "markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" here is one from me : " The Govt can delay the inevitable longer than you can stay alive "

homeowner_for ever_san jose says

here is one from me : ” The Govt can delay the inevitable longer than you can stay alive “

Here is one from me: "Above statement is pure nonsense (as nonsensical as this calculation)".

well thats already true for someone who was born in 1904 and died in 2004.

camping says

Thanks for posting the information. If I need advice on how to inherit wealth, now I know who to ask.

But don't be so negative about inheritance (sarcasm). Even inheritance requires "BALLS to make it work". Probably he had to kill couple of his siblings to inherit those properties. That indeed requires balls.

hey P2D2 : The Govt can delay the inevitable longer than we can stay alive so just chill out !

homeowner_for ever_san jose, I am already chilling out. After you posted this one liner I decided to ignore it, because it is another nonsensical comment. Your calculations are bogus. Your arguments are very vague. Why are you addressing me? Do you need lot of attention? What happened? Nobody pays you attention in real life?

i thought i would talk to someone who doesn't understand that housing goes up with inflation and give some economics 101 :-) BTW, i am not the one who is on this board 24/7 for attention and talking like a small kid.

homeowner_for ever_san jose says

i thought i would talk to someone who doesn’t understand that housing goes up with inflation and give some economics 101 :-) BTW, i am not the one who is on this board 24/7 for attention and talking like a small kid.

I understand that when I called your absurd calculation (not first time, another classic calculation) BOGUS, it must be very offending for you. Isn't that a shame that a "small kid" can expose all the bogus stuffs in your arguments? How about some mature argument and calculation like a grown-up? I don't address people with "hey P2D2". Rather I address the contents/statements from posted comments. So who is craving for attention?

You cannot go to a first grade class and hope that they would understand calculus..i have given up on you the same way..you shout "bogus" like a small kid without any evidence to disprove it. its not even worth talking to you. BTW, do you know that housing goes up with inflation ? if not , you won't say that i didn't include inflation in my calculation and that makes it bogus. inflation actually will increase the value and i left it on purpose just to make it little pessimistic. Just by looking at the conversation style and how you get intimidated by math,i can bet my bottom dollar that you don't have a solid educational background or you don't have much to say about you schooling performance.

I think I understand why you come to this board Nowhere. If your houses are median houses in 94523, then they were each worth around $650k between 2005 and 2006 according to city-data.com. Now they are each worth under $450k. That winds up being 18 * $200k = $3.6M of lost equity on paper. I guess I'd be pretty ticked off too. Maybe I wouldn't be that mad though since M+D handed it all down to me.

homeowner_for ever_san jose says

You cannot go to a first grade class and hope that they would understand calculus..i have given up on you the same way..you shout “bogus” like a small kid without any evidence to disprove it.

Well, I asked you to explain it. You didn't. What evidence? You just added all the changes (population 10%, median 13.5% and interest rate change 60%) and made it 83.5%. You seriously think it makes sense? Come on! It is bogus in a face value. If you think your calculation makes sense, how about show a single source where they calculated this way? If not, you must have invented a new methodology. You must patent it. Why wasting time here (sarcasm). Or find a single person here who thinks it makes sense? Your calculus analogy is funny and self-defeating. Calculus is an established discipline in mathematics. Your calculation is NOT. Your argument boils down to this: If you don't understand my calculation, it must be calculus. :) Here, my calculation: 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 = 999999. You won't understand it because it is calculus.

P2D2 : ever heard about back of the envelop calculations ? I am not taking mathematics class here to explain small details to people who dropped out of high school. anyway, let me give it a try without starting with 1+1 = 2 When Price is a function of (x,y,z ) and has linear relationship with each independent variable then % change in the Price will be more than % change in x + % change in y + % change in z

nowhere but up from here says

But camping….why would you get mad when you never paid that much? There’s no reason to get mad about anything. Your LOST means as much as when someone said IT’s WORTH XYZ. BTW…..I bought my houses on my own. My grandparents died from a hardworking, good life. I lost my parents in a car crash. You can have the houses, I would rather have my parents back.

I'm not sure what the first paragraph means. Just because you were handed houses for a lower price than they are now doesn't mean you shouldn't be mad about them decreasing in value. If I inherited $10M and invested it poorly to the point that it is now only worth $5M, I would be annoyed. I certainly wouldn't be gloating about my failures even though I can write about them to make them look like successes. That's sad about your parents. As far as you buying the houses on your own, that's highly suspect since it is clear that you likely inherited a large sum of money too. Inheriting $1M and then buying 5 houses with it, isn't really you buying them on your own. I still don't see why you are gloating on this board. By explaining yourself, you clearly aren't a self-made man. You inherited your wealth. Big deal, good for you, way to go.