patrick.net

heah, I believe this guy

In 1987 Kudlow was rehired by Bear, Stearns & Company as their chief economist and senior managing director. He was fired in 1994 after his drug use resulted in him missing an important client presentation.

Yea, the biggest problem for realwhores is that appraisers are using comps of actual sales, including short sales. Realwhores say that those aren't true comps, that they drive down the values.

This is a loaded topic. Shoot, I really don't care for a woman of this caliber. She needs to get the lead out. She's all pistol and vinegar and her aim is off. She should down a few Colt 45's, get hammered and take a powder. That would be a blast.

I'm considering a bid on a short sale in my area and would appreciate any advice and/or suggested strategies to expedite the process.

Will the RE listing agent, the mortgage servicing bank or the investor announce the appraisal value?

Will the RE listing price typically be at, above or below the appraisal value?

Should I bid at the asking price? Higher or lower?

Regards

Ray

Ray, your best bet is to research all of the comps, that is comparable sales, in your area. Size of home, year built, size of yard if applicable, amenities. These should all be looked at. You can find this info using zillow.com or redfin.com and their maps that can show you houses sold. This info will give you the basis of where your offer should be.

In the very small neighborhood I have my eye on, asking prices are all over the place. Some much higher than what they should be, some much lower (Usefull to create a bidding war), and some actually spot on.

As to the appraisal, the appraiser may not be familiar with the area due to new rules about appraisals. As such, the appraisal may come in higher, lower, or at the asking price.

I don't know if the appraisal will be shown to you as I haven't made it that far in the process yet. Be ready for a very long wait, lots of discouragment, and most likely your offer getting refused or not hearing from the selling agent at all. Things are terrible out here for anyone who isn't buying cash.

I have been a prospective buyer ever since I started reading the forums. This site has provided alot of information that helped me understand where the market should be for me to buy and how I can know when that time is. Its not there yet. Maybe next year.

I know, that's why I am still out. Prices are still too high, sellers and buyers still too crazy.

Prices are still too high, and the market is being blatantly manipulated. Artificial scarcity and a rush of demand due to temporarily low rates and an insulting $8000 buyers bribe. Let the fools pay $30k extra for their $8k bribes. I will have no part in it. I'll buy when it resembles a free market with reasonable prices.

As far as waiting, and being perfectly positioned for your dream home is just Patrick.net fantasy mantra…..always has been…always will be ----Well if you think Patrick.net is "fantasy mantra," why are you on his site?

Bap, I hope you don't mean I should move along. I am with Patrick's thinking. Oh yeah and my realtor told me that bank owned homes/property is taking longer to come on the market and the banks "are so backed up" and that it is taking longer to list them.

Ditto, to what Tude said. I am waiting for the economic collapse to happen when China will stop giving the US money. We will really hit a high unemployment rate then. At that point, houses will sell for next to nothing, only a matter of time. On top of that, I heard that China is buying 93 billion worth of gold. Most Americans turn a blind eye to what China is thinking and doing but the shit will hit the fan in a few years, maybe even sooner. I can't believe China hasn't pulled the plug yet because the US is a deadbeat nation that doesn't pay its bills.

nowhere but up from here says

Yahhhhhoooooooo…..thats what we did and “PAYDAY” baby…..house was gone in less than 2 weeks + 50K over asking price…..”can you smell what the Rock is cooking”…..and more NEW YORK (TheStreet) — Stocks moved slightly to the upside early Wednesday after a sharp increase in mortgage activity, ahead of another checkup on the U.S. economy, this one region by region. Meanwhile, the Mortgage Bankers Association said early Wednesday that its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage applications, including both purchase and refinance loans, increased 17% to 648.3 for the week ended Sept 4. That’s its highest level since May. I know things are bad but damn…..between the market, the house sold, all rentals full…all distressed homes for sale sold in my area and appreciating….it’s better now than in ‘07

Why did you sell your house if homes are appreciating?

Some Guy says

gloating when you make money in the market

How about these "PAYDAY" gloats: Homedebtors gloating about simply stopping mortgage payments and living free for two years Tenants gloating about simply stopping rent payments and living free for an extended period since the local sherriff has a "no evict" policy Of course, most of that gloating will be past tense, as not to endanger thier schemes.

Anyone like "nowhere but up from here" that comes on this board spouting his nonsense needs to get a life if they think an opinion that illogical will be agreed with here. On second thought, you know what, hell....after reading his crap, I changed my mind - he is right - nowhere but up from here. Sure - ya think we are THAT stupid, huh? Check the date 09/09/09 - lets meet back here in one year and you can tell me how much "homes" have appreciated (and call them what they are - they are houses - fuck you for trying to tie an emotional connection to a dwelling by overuse of the word home). With rates still in the 5% range, we are still down for the year. Any seasonal uptick that was had will evaporate before the year is over. There are too many houses vs. qualified buyers and unemployment is still going lower. My father in law who is a real estate broker told me the other day that ALL of his clients from the past 20 years have been refinanced into something less than 6%. There is nothing left for a broker to do but to hope for future sales or house prices to increase so people can run the equity pull-out game again...only to be refinanced again (cha ching - another broker fee). There is plenty of space for prices to go lower.

nowhere but up... please eat shit. I hope your "homes" sink you into financial ruin like the millions of people out there that have learned what a b.s. market this is.

Fuck buying. It's not worth to be enslaved for 30 yrs. I'm renting and enjoying my beach view rental home for one third the PITI price.

Same here, I have been patiently waiting, but the list prices are not even close to 2006 prices yet in my area sunnyvale/MV. Unfortunately, they think the recovery already started and they are entitled to NAR's bullshit appreciation of 10% YoY. I guess, my wait will continue for couple more years, I am in no hurry, but it is really frustrating.

Bap33 says

just some dreamer REwhore blowing smoke. Move along, nothing to see here ….

Agreed - Most likely lives in his mother's basement, surrounded by pictures of Sarah Palin.

I left California and sold my overpriced house in Long Beach Summer of 07 for $695K. I bought the same size house in Wisconsin for $155K. But even now, I am starting to get that worried feeling again, that I may still lose. Nothing is selling around here even thought house prices and rents are a wash. As CCR sings, I see a bad moon rising. don thelittleguylobby.org Gotham, WI

Think of the upside for having "nowhere's" faith: Knowing that house prices will rise, one could buy up (using OPM, naturally) all the real estate one could afford. Big payday in that future. Could also co-sign mortgage loans, with the idea of sharing in the profit when sold. No risk!

Now that the Beatles are in the news, I can't resist: He's a Real Nowhere Man Pushing Out His Nowhere Plan Sounding Like a Realtor's Scam Fooling Nobody Has a Realtor's point of View Forgets Who He's Talking To Isn't he a bit like Bern-na-kee

Analagous to "big penis" braggers, the ones with an actual pot to piss in don't feel a need to waste their time gloating.

I read this blog almost everyday, 2 years now. To day I registered so that folks don't have to read the comment from cashmonger because of It's language. Lot of folks come to this forum. Lets keep them coming back! No offense, this site needs some type of validation before posting comments.

Dizzy, I apologize if the word penis offends you - it was simply an attempt at humor and in my mind the analogy works. Honestly, who really has it in them to drop into a forum each evening with perpetually clinched cheeks? Oh wait, there goes another questionable reference... With a smile on my face here, I'd suggest lightening up a bit. In the meantime I'll try to find other ways to lighten the mood.

There is a basic moderation filter, but I kept cutting it back because too many things were getting into moderation. But maybe I should make it a bit more restrictive. Please email me words that you think should cause a comment to get into moderation. Another approach is to automatically replace them with an inoffensive word. Could do that too.

nowhere but up from here says

Wait…wait…..WAIT!!!! Have I EVER argued over what got us here, what’s right and wrong with the system, morality…..your parents should have taught you better…..NO. I’m not siding with the government, banks, society as it is. I’m not advocating Blue or Red, God or not. What I am saying is… (A) I’ve made a lot of money in the stock market….good, bad or otherwise. (B) I sold one home in two weeks for 50K over asking…..signed, sealed and delivered. (C) All my rentals are full, paying exactly what I have always asked for them, and are usually rented before the prior occupants leave. What the HELL do you want me to tell you….that’s just what is going on. Right/Wrong or otherwise…and BTW….there are a dozen buyers for every home that comes up in the AREA….I can’t explain it…where did all the credit and money come from. Bubble….sure, America screwed…sure. I’m sorry the world isn’t spinning they way you guys want……but maybe it never did. Some people work hard, take calculated risks and WIN…..part of being an AMERICAN in my book. The rest……all whining and chickenshit. End of Statement

It would help us understand your point better if you could tell two things: Where is the house you sold (zip code)? Was the asking price comparable to what other houses were selling for? Did you put a lower asking price to get more people interested? It is impossible to relate your claim to what market is doing if we have to use too many assumptions. The best case scenario would be to give us the actual address so people can verify your claim.

nowhere but up from here says

Wait…wait…..WAIT!!!! Have I EVER argued over what got us here, what’s right and wrong with the system, morality…..your parents should have taught you better…..NO. I’m not siding with the government, banks, society as it is. I’m not advocating Blue or Red, God or not. What I am saying is… (A) I’ve made a lot of money in the stock market….good, bad or otherwise. (B) I sold one home in two weeks for 50K over asking…..signed, sealed and delivered. (C) All my rentals are full, paying exactly what I have always asked for them, and are usually rented before the prior occupants leave. What the HELL do you want me to tell you….that’s just what is going on. Right/Wrong or otherwise…and BTW….there are a dozen buyers for every home that comes up in the AREA….I can’t explain it…where did all the credit and money come from. Bubble….sure, America screwed…sure. I’m sorry the world isn’t spinning they way you guys want……but maybe it never did. Some people work hard, take calculated risks and WIN…..part of being an AMERICAN in my book. The rest……all whining and chickenshit. End of Statement

What are you looking for Nowhere? You keep posting how you are great, brilliant, rich, pretty much the best investor ever. We get it. What is your point? Bring information to the table. You keep saying you sold a house for $50k over asking. That in itself means nothing. If you are in an area where homes sell for $500k right now (previously selling for $700k) and you list it for $450k and get your $500k, then you didn't do anything special. I could list one of my properties tomorrow and get several hundred $K over asking if my asking is $1.

camping says

You keep posting how you are great, brilliant, rich, pretty much the best investor ever. We get it. What is your point? Bring information to the table.

Actually if he is so eager to tell his success story, including bank account, he should publish his zipcode here and price range of his real estate investments, so that we can verify it.

facts are facts..just because we think otherwise doesn't change anything. even though i am not fully in agreement with nowhere_to_go_but_up, i support his observation that there is lot of demand at the lower end housing by investors. there are places where rents are more than 30 years fixed mortgages + expenses, when was the last time these kind of oppurtunities came by ? ( i am sounding like a radio commercial !) ...i seriously think that +ve cash flow oppurtunities are very hard to find in general...no wonder investors are snapping the +ve cash flow homes fast. In bay area, its a different ball game in most areas. We might be debating here for a perfect world but real world is diffferent. In a perfect world, the govt will not prop up prices by buying treasury bonds and lowering interest rates and we won't have prop8. we won't have real estate agents and NAR filing the media up lies and we won't have govt subsidizing bank loans by giving tax break on interest ! But in real world, we live in a democracy with lot of factors playing in. Housing cannot go low too fast because its too painful for the masses. They would prefer a propped up housing than go through the correction and thier voices ( majority) win in a democracy by design.The average IQ of a common man does not give enough reasoning power for the average joe to comprehend the long term problem with the debt's that we are taking on ( propping homes). Given the fact that govt ( voice of majority) will not allow the housing market to collapse..and that govt will keep the housing up ( low interest rate), will you accept the real facts and do your calculation OR would you keep strolling in your perfect imaginary world and keep waiting for something which won't happen ?

Cash flows get crimped due to delinquencies, property values and foreclosures causing the global economy to limp through difficult times. Financing of properties is going through a huge restructuring process and the pricing should readjust to the new trends affordable by people. This transition is causing a lot of industries and job sectors to be totally wiped out. Due to various disconnects in the industrial chain, job markets in various segments are drown, property owners are sunk in debts and lenders are skeptical to lend and bail out people from the difficult situation. The income to afford to repay loans is declining highly. Only when the restructuring gets stable and the pricing reconciles and reaches an acceptable and affordable level, the industry is expected to recover. With the housing market in great trouble, moderately-priced apartments have become the core buy. Lenders must force the troubled owners to become good sellers. Government intervention introducing systematic overhaul measures to reduce foreclosures can also help recover the situation. With the current situation, stringent lending practises and the weak economic situation is continuing the drain the buyers from affording to buy their own homes. Hence, the housing condition is at a risk where quick fix may not be easily expected. This is a great opportunity for cash-rich buyers who are the main beneficiaries of this financial crisis. They can take advantage of the weak dollar value and buy properties in busy cities and centrally located areas. Read More: http://www.housingnewslive.com

There are two types of smart people. unfortunately , too much unnatural study makes a lot of smart people disconnected from reality and base thier modelling of world on too many imaginary concepts ignoring the hard evidence. Anytime, your theory is invalidated by real evidence ( or common sense), you should trust the real evidence and check your theory. Common sense was thrown out of the window when housing was going up like crazy and derivatives became the order of the day. Now common sense is again thrown out when homes are so cheap in some areas. People will always come up with wierd explanations. US is already in deep shit and we have seen the bottom, if you can get a +ve cash flow house today , i bet it will be +ve 10 years later as well. BTW, i am not talking about abnormal places ( like flint, michigan) here. Street smart : smart people who start there thinking process based on a real world. Academically smart : smart people and think based on an imaginary world. guess who wins in the real world ?

Crap! I could be a real estate investor too if I could start with 13 PAID OFF houses. Sign me up for that deal. nowhere, I would not like the point of view of most on this website if I owned as many homes as you either. Reality can be a bitch. The OP was correct.... prices are ridiculously insane right now. No sense at all. Anything at the lowest end of pricing has 20 offers on it before you could even ask for a showing. Is this the bottom? Economics say 'no' but the sentiment of the Bay Area home buyers is saying 'yes' at the low end of the market. The prices are still to expensive for first time buyers that don't have inheritance or parents to support them. Hence the VERY obvious frustration from alot of the posters. Where are they getting money to buy these homes? Maybe there are a bunch of 'investors' that got mommy and daddy's houses to play with? When will they all go away so I can by my first home without stretching my income to the max to make it work... ?

prices around here went up 300%… raw materials and labor DID NOT! we certainly have seen people from the east cost move to California. BTW, using the same logic rents should also move up in tandem with raw material and labor. There are only three factors for housing : (inverse) long term interest rates, ( direct ) wages and ( direct) population growth. If you can graph these three in bay area , we can see if it makes sense. unfortunately , i don't have the data. To get a feel for wages and population growth, we can look at rents. so it rents times inverse of 30 years fixed mortgage has gone up 300% in the time you are mentioning then home price appreciation in the same % makes sense.

I always take advice on how to live my life from people who were handed everything they own at birth.

nowhere but up from here says

Oh brother……would you also like birthdate, social security number, blood type and sperm count?

If you think that above information (especially your sperm count) is relevant to your success story, you are welcome to provide. But I don't think they are relevant. I asked only whatever is relevant. nowhere but up from here says

I also posted houses in this area below, at, and above asking prices sold….which was thoroughly brought up by my “friends” here

Purely anecdotal. nowhere but up from here says

My grandparents left my parents 6 homes. My parents bought 7 of their own and left me 13. I started at age 24 and bought 5 BEFORE ‘02. No fancy mortgages or tricks.

Again, how is above information is relevant the topic of this thread? Damn! No fancy mortgage! No purchase after 2002? Talk about "sperm count"!!! :) So when you say "nowhere but up from here", does that mean that it is from 2002? Or 2009?

Tude says

I always take advice on how to live my life from people who were handed everything they own at birth.

You mean people like Paris Hilton and the guy who inherited 13 properties?

homeowner_for ever_san jose says

If you can graph these three in bay area , we can see if it makes sense. unfortunately , i don’t have the data. To get a feel for wages and population growth, we can look at rents.

The population growth in Santa Clara County in last ten years is nothing unusual. In fact growth is slowing compare to previous two decades. http://www.sccgov.org/portal/site/planning/print?contentId=574a9d4bf9d74010VgnVCMP2200049dc4a92____

Between 1980 and 1990, Santa Clara County grew by 202,506 people. This growth represents a 16% increase in population. Similarly, between 1990 and 2000, the county grew by an additional 185,008, which accounts for a 12% change in population. It is predicted that the county's population will continue to grow, but at a slower rate. Moderate rates of growth in employment and housing development may account for this slow down in population growth. According to the Association of Bay Area Governments, by 2010, Santa Clara County's population is projected to increase by 197,115 people to 1,879,700. From 2010 to 2020, Santa Clara County's population is predicted to increase an additional 127,800 people to 2,007,500.

Median household income increased slightly ($74K in 1999 and $84K in 2007). http://www.city-data.com/county/Santa_Clara_County-CA.html

homeowner_for ever_san jose says

so it rents times inverse of 30 years fixed mortgage has gone up 300% in the time you are mentioning then home price appreciation in the same % makes sense.

Not sure what your point is. The rent definitely did not go up 300% in last ten years in Silicon Valley.

so , the median income increase = 84-74/74 *100 = 13.5 % population = approx = 10% ( population) interest rate = long term interest rate in 1999 / long term interest rate in 2008 = 8-5/5 *100 = 60% Total = 83.5% since 1999 looks like most of the gain is due to interest rates !! surprise surprise :-) i think 1999 is not the right year to pick as there was too much stuff going on ( stock bubble..etc) i'll re do the math for 1980 to 2009 ...when i have some time.. i left out inflation as a bonus to housing pessimists ! BTW, inflation increases housing prices.